Jones4190:
I vote tinubu not APC, I would have vote him even if he contests in another party

If you can pick one point that you want Tinubu to achieve in his 4 year tenure what would it be.

Jones4190:
what are the past performance of labour party

Answer the question please. I am just curious I will ask the same question to those that voted LP...

yarimo:
are you voting party or candidate?

Do you always answer question with question?

So did APC performance influence your choice or not?

Question for the brothers and sisters that voted for the APC during the presidential elections.

Did the parties performance during the last 8 years in power influence your choice?

amnesty7:
An interesting reading!!!


*A LEARNED CHRISTIAN FRIEND FROM NIGER STATE WROTE THIS INSIGHTFUL WRITE UP. KUDOS TO HIM!!!*

*Niger state started as a Muslim christain ticket. But today its Muslim muslim ticket.*
The fault is the arrogance of Christian community. An inflated balloon egoistic sense of their self importance.

When Engineer Kure wanted to go for second term. He called my Bishop jonah who was the CAN chairman of Niger state that he wants second term. My Bishop who has already turned the pulpit to anti government platform. The Bishop refused him flatly. Said he will not support him. The governor walk away. Promising that he can do without him.

My Bishop wass a strong loyalist of Jerry Gana, and Prof Jerry was against the government. Even when both were in PDP. Jerry sponsored Engineer Mustapha Sani Bello, then a minister in Obasanjo's government, and directed the Christian community to vote for PRP. We voted.

As usual, the PDP won and completely crushed the PRP. That election was really a litmus test of Muslim - Christian electoral strength in Niger sate. The entire Christian community suffer till date because of that decision of opposing an incumbent governor.

Engineer kure remains the best governor in Niger state till date. Even bringing in some christian commissioners, and his developmental drive.

Even then I knew that CAN will regret that decision. Jerry Gana led them on. And in the last minute ran away to avoid sanction for anti party activities. He fought a governor using christain Community because obasanjo promise to make him a president after him. Unfortunately he lost to yardua .

After that election the deputy governor Shem Zagbayi who is a christain became a puppet. In trying to prove to his boss that he is relevant. He went to get an audio recording of Jerry Gana and his cohort plan to destabilise the kure government. Instead of it to work for him. The recording work against him. The political stakeholders interpret it to mean that christains cannot be trusted in the politics.

Jerry rode on Babaginda back to political relevance, yet he refused to acknowledge Babangida as his godfather.
After Kure's government, apart from Senator David Umaru no Christian leader rose again to prominence (even Umaru too has lost it now). The ones making noise today are the ones Kure brought to limelight. And nobody has risen after that.
OK. There is a Christian Commissioner for justice presently, Dan mallam, but he rose by befriending the present governor Sani Bello a Muslim.

Back to Kure's regime. So all these set the stage for change of political calculation.

At the end of Kure government, Obasanjo set out to destroy Kure's legacy and he brought out his boy Mu'azu Babangida Aliyu from Pension Board Abuja and installed him as PDP governorship candidate. The zone (C) are to produce a running mate, and they quickly favoured a Muslim from there. And that is how we got the first Muslim Muslim government. After their tenure the next governments was/is still on Muslim-Muslim and nobody is even complaining again. Its now the standard.

Political Lesson 1. Self interest.
1. The same pattern of arrogance is what played out on kaduna. Southern kaduna are my brothers. But this sense of entitlement that play out in Niger state happen in kaduna. Power is negotiated. Northern muslims are like ancient athenians. Who themselves are realist like claiscal Greece. All the rhetoric of fairness, bla bla bla could not match a good negotiation that protect their self interests and their power in Nigeria. You irritate them when you make them feel guilty and putting them under obligation to support a Muslim Christian ticket. They don't care less about past favors and friendly feelings. North is like Japan and Holland. Very vast culture but they share something timeless and universe with nothern Nigeria. SELF INTERST.

2 political lesson 2.islamic culture.
In 16th century Portuguese missionaries tried for years to convert the people of Japan to Catholicism, while at the same time Portugal has monopoly to trade between Japan and Europe. They failed. It backfire. But later when the Dutch arrived in Japan. Japan was relieved. They need the Dutch for their knowledge of gun and navigation, and here they are people who careless about spreading Dutch Christian religion. Dutch want only trade. Japan king swiftly move to evict the Portuguese. From then Japan will only deal with patctical minded people.

This has greatlesson in our politics. I feel its arrogance for peopel to say Tinubu must pick a christain northerner.
North is a Muslim society. Even if we have large population of christains here and there. But cumulatively, they are Muslim. And not just Muslim but practical Muslim culture like Japan with their own Japanese culture. Colonial masters try to impose Christianity on them. And it failed. Toady South is trying to impose securalism on them.it will also fail.

Northern relationship with South is purely self interest. trade and development. South should stay clear of their religion and islamic culture. They hear your criticism of shariah in the North, hijab judgement, blasphemy, and name calling of almjiri, and numerous social issue that reflect your mind versus their cherished culture. All these come together to inform their opinions.

If you want something form north. Talk about something that will protect our self interests and you bypass this religion issue and talk about how you can help arewa with military operation of superior guns, Sophiscated weapons, superior navigation that will flush out bandits and restore security on our farms and homes.Or talk about our r trade. Our society.

*But get the hell out of preaching political fairness in Muslim Christian ticket. That will never sell here. We don't even want to hear it.*

Conclusion.
The sad reality is that this Muslim Muslim ticket will work. Crush the opponents. And get elected. And nothing will still happen. We the christain community will lose out. Not because we didn't vote. But inspite of our votes against it. It still prevail.

Why is it that always, always, its only the Muslims brothers that are fighting to protect arewa.

On Northern interest, our hausa fulani have done more than enough to protect it politically . Northern Chrustains are not found in the fore font. I hardly hear a christain governor speaking for the North. I hardly hear a northern Christian talk about one north. One people. Look at the igbo christain shouting biafra. Biafra. Nnamdi kanu want to die for it. How many northern Christians have spoken fiercely on arewa project. The South insult us. You join them to insult your brothers.

When its time to share office. The christain are coming out to say fairness. Redistribution of someone else reward. So that you take from those that deserve it amd give to those who don't. No way.
My advise to my Christain community in the North. Repent. Start protecting arewa interest today. When you do it with sweat. One day. One day. You will get to represent the beehive or in human language. The Northern region.

What is this shiyt?

Kagd10:
Exactly.

It's stupidity to expect anything tangible from Peter Obi who did nothing in Anambra.

Ask his supporters to list his achievement, they will keep mute. They can't list his achievement. What significant change has Peter Obi given you while he was Anambra governor? Absolute nothing.

Rather he was investing his state funds into his family business.

Please tell us what shitimmi and tinubu have done? Genuinely

In one hand he says naija needs a unifier in the other he singles out a portion of the country

This religion is the problem with Nigeria at the moment.

Nice1

.

JoeNL22:

Your analysis is so correct right now. I did not expect the backlash and protests from Nigerians concerning the Muslim ticket. The Christians and the youths are fully for obi. And I have have to re-do my calculations again. Truly you are a genius.

Ah I'm not a genius. I can just see that the people are changing from docile subservient political pawns to active members of a democracy. Well atleast in the Middle belt and South. The norther populous are still under the suzreinty of Uthman Dan Fodio and his descendants...

I mean is it up to 2 years ago that the lekki toll gate shooting happened. With an APC government in both the state and federal level willfully pleading ignorance of the situation.

I am sorry but if Nigeria forgives and forgets that atrocity aswell as the many other atrocities endured under this APC government by rewarding them with another 8 years, then they deserve whatever tragedy comes their way.

Zandena:
May thunder fire any idiotic bigoted Christian who is crying over Muslim-Muslim ticket!
Some Christians are devilish in thought. They can do the worst to other faiths but will start crying like babies when a fraction is served to them.
Imagine Osun state that has Muslims as majority was ruled by a Christian-Christian Oyinlola/Orelu but muslims never raised alarm. Same reason they always advanced when it comes to Ondo and Ekiti that muslims are minorities in those states and that's why they can't be even deputy governors but Christians presiding in Oyo, Lagos and Ogun where they are minorities! What's a great injustice and hypocrisy!
In the north, the unjust people keeps heating up the polity in Kaduna state over MM ticket but ignored the Christian-Christian ticket in plateau and Benue with the excuse that muslims are minorities in those states and when you ask them whether Christians are the majority in Kaduna they resort to insults and name calling!
Do your worst over Muslim-Muslim Ticket!!!

Calm down dear... let's go to election and elect muslim muslim ticket. Allah is in control in Jesus name we pray.

Mchewww

ElSudani:


Where and when was this declared? Who declared it? Obasanjo recently said he regretted his choice of vice president. What was the cost of this regret on providing good leadership for Nigerians?
Well according to some of you it doesn't matter as long as the ticket is Christian/ Muslim. By the way, are these two religions the only religions in Nigeria?

Stop dodging. How many Northern Muslim leaders have come out against a Northern Christian candidate.


Let me ask you directly. Would you vote for a Christian Christian presidential ticket??

ElSudani:
If the ticket is rejected a bad precedent would be set, a new gulf of division and schism would be established between Christians and Muslims for a very long time.
It will trickle down to the state and local government levels. Your faith rather than your competence will be given undue importance in seeking office.

You mean the precedent the Northern muslim has already set by declaring proudly that they can't vote for a Northern Christian?

Hypocrisy, could Atiku sir out for a Southern candidate? This is all the doing of the Fulani Lords..

The one thing I hate about the journalists in Nigeria they always fail to ask the obvious question. Especially during this period of them interviewing Several Muslim Northern leaders on Tinubu's Muslim-Muslim ticket.

So here is the key question.

Muslims how would you react to a Christian Christian ticket if presented in future presidential elections?

Now with Tinubu showing his hand and picking a northern Muslim as vice I am hundred percent certain he won't win the South West the most he will collect is 50% in that region. Foolish move.

I have always did this. These 3 tribes have caused heart ache internationally and at ho.e for the rest of us. They keep fumbling amongst themselves to see who can rule in the most incompetent manner. Naija is fvcked I think e Don finish

CutieKing:


You people are still delusional...

Show me any past election results that were not based on party preferences.
Some of you kids will just come on the Internet and start sprouting junk laced with alternative facts and conspiracy theories.
How is tinubu base shaking ??.
So apc governors will just go to sleep because voters will just vote along tribal lines..
2019 general elections was contested for with about 25 different political parties,from different ethnicity and tribes,why then was the result only mirrored that of major 2 political parties?.
Also,did insecurities start during apc govt??.
How has apc fared in all the off season elections conducted so far since 2019??.
Your answer will tell you how it's going to be again in 2023.
As for kwankawso ,he's only dividing pdp votes together with obi cos their voters will naturally vote pdp if they don't contest.
You people should use your head for once and not your emotions when analyzing politics.

Yes there has always been multiple contestants in any given Election just like in this current one but in previous elections there has only ever been 2 maximum 3 major players in this field we have 4. All of them popular!

Whether you like it or not APC's choice to run a Muslim Muslim ticket WILL be a factor, it will split votes in the North and lose him votes in the south west.

When APC toppled PDP in 2015 did PDP not have incumbent governors in the states that APC faired well in? Calm down and look at people argument without insulting.

The Insecurity did not start with APC but it continued and escalated under their mandate. Even this one you cannot deny.

All I can see is the vote being split in the North between three Muslims, while in the middle belt the APC and any Fulani wont do well due to recent atrocities carried out under a Fulani APC government.

My opinion will change if one of the Northerners drop out. Until then I can see Obi winning this thing.

CutieKing:
To those shouting Obi up and down are deluded or mainly a political neophytes .
You expect obi to score over 90% in se and ss but want tinubu to lose in sw.
Are you people mad or plainly stupid?.
Where is the position of party politics here??.
Apc control 22 states with huge voting population in the country while the party is intact without any crisis,yet you deluded people think they would just lose the election even when buhari is still alive ??.
This joke is on you all.

Read my reasoning for this, its quite clear, Tinubu is not as secure in the SW. Also you have to take into account the major animosity thats held nationwide against the APC. Look at the state of the country people are routinely Massacred, Kidnapped & Bombed etc. The Populous wont forget or forgive that sadly and there are too many Muslim & Northern actors in the field, if there was no Kwankwaso I would give the victory to Tinubu but his presence is a vote splitter in the core north unfortunately.

Nigeria very rarely votes along party lines they vote on ethnicity and religion.

Ask yourself is Peter Obi really and truly a socialist Labour candidate? Of course not! Will people vote for him based on his political ideology? Of course not.

Same goes with all the other candidates, Tinubu base is shaky due to his Muslim Muslim fancies.

I pray they survived.

JoeNL22:

I am a yoruba Christian.
I don't need to lie about it or rather need to prove it to anyone.
Am not in support of Tinubu or Atiku am just giving analysis of how the elections might turn out come 2023.

Joel who are you supporting out of curiosity?

Obagreatdatoye:

Obi is now a national project....Tinubu is not loved in SW....he is only loved by the Agberos in SW because he's their Grand patron. To even make it worst he's flying a muslim - Muslim ticket...what a damning ardacity ....His disgrace will be heard in the highest heaven....As God liveth and his spirit alive.

Comments have been civil and analytical so far. So abeg you keep it that way.

Ddokie:


Tinubu is definitely getting more votes in the NE/NW. He will take a reasonable chunk from what you gave to Atiku and Kwankwaso.

Obi will do better than the 1% you gave him in the NE/NW. He may be able to do 10% or more. Especially considering OBJs decision to galvanize support for PO among the old generals and the old school leaders of thought there. They also have a reasonable size of educated youths who may lean towards a datti.

Obi will do about 90% in the east, and if discussions with Wike, as well as the inroads made into Akwaibom, Cross, and Bayelsa, are positive, maybe 60% in the SS region. Edo and Delta are the only very likely ones for Obi at the moment.

Still very early to call. But you have done well.

Yes my assumptions were merely based on previous voting patterns and regional tribal sentiment. But yes its still way too early to call.
Thank you for the compliment sir.

JoeNL22:

Point of correction.
They do care. You think the SW like what Tinubu is doing?. We are liberals but not foolish, hence we the Yoruba Christians won't support a Muslim/Muslim ticket.

Yoruba Christian wont support a Muslim Muslim Ticket. But you think the SE and SS will at the expense of a Christian-Muslim ticket with one of their own on the Presidential ticket . Atiku a Fulani man will not make any significant inroads in the NC,SE or SS. Guaranteeeeed!

garfield1:


Oga no matter what tinubu will win his region.his region is the most liberal region in nigeria.they dont care about religion.do not be deceived by social media noise or new voters.traditional voters won't change their choices much...

But do you Agree his margin of victory will be greater if he pick a christian in his region? if he pick a muslim I can he him getting 45% of the vote there.

JoeNL22:


This party structure you people keep talking about. Did Jonathan not have a party structure? Or did Atiku?.
Yet they lost. It is not about party structure.
I gave 2 types of analysis based on the influence of Tinubu so where is the contradiction?
Atiku had buhari to contend with, hence the reasons why he lost. But the alpha(Buhari) has gone. All man for himself. The throne is vacant and the crown is empty, therefore let the best man win. Secondly do you think the North will vote a minority Muslim from the south over a core Muslim from the North?. As obi movement is to the south, so as kwankwanso is to the north. I can guarantee you obi can't even get 50% from the SE. Atiku, obi and Tinubu will share NC

JoelN I will bring this comment up after the results are announce, everything you say is plausible but this one I cant help but LOL. Cmon Haba

garfield1:


Your analysis is contradictory.you analysed well but failed with your final results.your analysis of the regions shows a tinubu win...atiku has been losing his region massively,why do you think he will win? Do you realize that nnpp is weak beyond kano and jigawa? Obi will win the se but not more than 70%.ss is tight but will be won by obi or atiku.sw is ok.nc is between obi and tinubu...the truth is that votes are determined by party structure so the party that is strongest in nw,ne,sw and nc will win

Well in 2019 Atiku was in direct competition in the North East with a Very Popular Norther Fulani man in the form of Buhari. Like people have mentioned already the only other Northerner in this race is not popular beyond his zone in Kano and the Northwest.

Tinubu is between a rock and a hard place. if he chooses a Muslim as his VP, he will pick up some votes in the north which will further dilute Atiku and Kwankwaso's stake there, But he will lose his region or at best share it with Obi. If he picks a Christian he will hold his zone and nibble away at Obi in the NC and SS in particular.

But all in all this 4 horse premier league race is the best thing that has happened to Nigerian Democracy since Abacha slumped over!

JoeNL22:

Lol very true. His influence does not supersedes the north. So I wonder how he(kwankwanso) will win the elections

But I did not assign Kwankwaso high ratings in anywhere but the north, see my table again.
I gave him 30% in the NE

75% in NW

and in the other zones he doesn't go any higher than 12.5%. Its just that the North West is so populous that it compensates for his low score in the other zones.

JoeNL22:

My analysis is based on the voting power and strength of each region. The North-West and North-East have a voting power/ strength of x2. Therefore my analysis goes beyond 6 geo-political zones rather we have 8 voting zones based on the voting strength of Nigeria.
P.s If Tinubu picks a Muslim the analysis goes thus....

North west and North east X2.
Atiku- 33%(66)
Kwankasio- 33%(66)
Tinubu- 33%(66)
Obi- 1%(2)

North Central
Tinubu- 17%
Atiku- 41%
obi- 41%
Kwankasio- 1%

South west
Tinubu- 17%
Atiku- 41.5%
Obi- 41.5%

South east
Atiku- 41%
Obi- 42%
Tinubu-17%

South south
Atiku- 41.5%
Obi- 41.5%
Tinubu- 17%

Average % (divided the total % by 8 not 6, I repeat not 6)
Atiku- 29%
Tinubu- 17%
Obi- 21%
Kwankasio- 9%

That is why it pains me that kwankasio and obi are not running together.
Atiku knows he will probably win the elections, therefore he does not need a strong candidate like Wike as his running mate.

All those people thinking obi and kwankasio will divided Atiku votes are just wasting their time. It is Tinubu's votes that is been divided.

Something is telling me that kwankasio has been paid by some people to not allow the partnership with obi to come to light. Maybe its Atiku(he has the billions to offer kwankasio). Maybe Atiku has settled with kwankasio before picking Okowa, because as it stands, Atiku is just too relaxed for my liking. Truly information is power. Atiku truly knows something we don't!.

Interesting but I will say from the onset that the Voting Power of the Northeast is not that much greater than the NC and SW and you giving it a double weighting is wrong.

Another thing, you really expect that the Igbo will only give Obi 42%? and give 41% to Atiku? How? Why? When? Where? After all the Fulani incursion and general insecurity of their homeland. I don't think so, Atiku is seen as a Fulani man the NC and SE will not vote for him having witnessed what the current Fulani president has done or better yet not done to combat the incessant killings of indigenes in these areas by Fulani Herdsmen.

The NC SS and SE will most likely go to Obi

But Thanks for sharing sha.

JoeNL22:
.
The 90% for obi won't happen

You cant just say something like that and not give reasonings.

I called 90% in the SE and SS because Atiku a Northerner and Muslim registered 80%! in the SE in the last election so what more of Obi? I can easily see Obi carrying in the 90th percentile in these two regions all things being equal.

JoeNL22:
It is 50% accurate. But you right in some things though.
I will drop my analysis soonest

What am I wrong in? Lets discuss

I'm not saying I am right but I want to know where I am wrong

haffaze777:
This is most funniest thing I ever read on internet

Haffeze

Is this funnier than your own prediction?

[b]As we all know that 2023 general election is just some month from now,these are the things that will happen before,during and after election.

1 Tinubu will pick Northern Muslim vice and it will generate alot of noise on all social media

2 Atiku will pick his vice from south and ohaneze ndigbo will spit fire and later atikulate

3 Peter Obi will choose his vipe from North, probably a Muslim North

4 majority of Yorubas will be rooting for Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu

5 minority of Igbo will be rooting for Peter Gregory Obi

6 Majority of Igbo will vote Atiku

7 Simeon ekpa will announce sit at home during campaign and election day

8 some people will die from innocent gun carrying angel unknown gun men

9 ipob sympathizer on Nairaland will blame Tinubu for it,that he's scared of Peter Obi and he's the one sponsor unknown gun men they've been hailing since 1889bc era

10 Tinubu will defeat Atiku(note Peter Obi is not in equation at all because he will come distance 4th behind sowore).

11 cry of rigging will rent social media place for some month

12 some people will come with another conspiracy theory of how Fulani cabal will use supreme Court to deal with Tinubu

13 some people will finally go back to their anthem of Biafra or death.


This thread is not for troll please.[/b]