There's an early moment in most horror films, just after the cataclysmic storm or earthquake, when the sun rises and life appears to return to normal. Then the main characters notice things that seem a little off: a strange sound emanates from the cellar, they can’t see themselves in the mirror or frogs may start gathering in the backyard.

Investors have been grappling with similar signs even as markets stabilize from the initial shock of the Great Lockdown: bid-ask spreads still out of whack, oil contracts turning negative, bonds behaving like stocks.

For the global economy, the terrors ahead still depend overwhelmingly on how fast doctors, scientists and governments develop strategies to test, track and treat COVID-19. The jaw-dropping macroeconomic data will lag too much to provide any real clarity, but weird anomalies aside, investors can still look to markets themselves for the best guide to the path ahead.

First, sovereign bond yields suggest that the economic damage is real and the recovery will be slow. Muted expectations, limited risk appetites and massive central bank intervention have moved us from a “low growth, low return” world to an “even lower growth, even lower return” one.

If bond prices have been bid up by central banks, commodity markets confirm that demand has collapsed and will not snap right back. Beyond oil markets distorted by political rivalry and limited infrastructure, the prices of steel, nickel, corn and sugar all reflect the weakness. The copper price, in terms of the rising price of safe-haven gold, is especially striking.

COPPER/Gold ratio

Second, stocks, as usual, are much more optimistic that the recovery will come, even if it may be delayed. Some of this is surely helped by central bank programs to purchase corporate debt. Some may be a market getting ahead of itself. But part of the discrepancy could be that investors are already looking past this year’s blow to next year’s vaccine, when more normal activity is easier to picture.

Simply looking at market action since the beginning of the year, Chinese stocks have performed best, with the United States in second place and Europe and Japan lagging. In the last month, U.S. stocks have snapped back more than Chinese, but they are both still ahead of Europe and Japan. This more or less confirms the IMF's outlook for the recovery: China is the only major economy recording both positive growth this year and a large bounce next year. Among developed markets, the United States falls less and recovers faster than Europe and Japan.

GLOBAL MARKETS YTD

The third market message is that when the rising tide comes, it will not lift all boats. Just as the disease is striking different economies at different times, the recovery will be segregated by varying policies about how to resume activity and contrasts in renewed outbreaks.

This may be reflected in global currency markets that show a return to more normal patterns. Over three months everything sold off against the dollar, but the last month has provided much greater differentiation.

EMERGING MARKETS CURRENCY PER USD

(DAILY % CHANGES, MARCH 23, 2020–PRESENT )


Harder to see beyond these early trends is just how the global economy will change on the other side. Markets were already grappling with fundamental dislocations from domestic politics, technological innovation and global relationships. Now there will be more questions about consumer behavior, risk appetite and economic interactions.

Will the shock to corporate and household balance sheets linger? Will commercial real estate and business travel ever fully recover after a mostly successful experiment in working from home? Still more important will be how much large increases in government debt crowd out the private sector or whether these new vast new financial assets are just tinder for renewed inflation.

"Almost as devastating as the crisis shock itself has been the disorienting sense that past correlations no longer work. It’s hard to rely on models that depend on a reversion to the mean when the mean itself is on the move."

What is particularly difficult for an investor is that the tools of the trade depend on traditional patterns offering a guide to the future. Almost as devastating as the crisis shock itself has been the disorienting sense that past correlations no longer work. It’s hard to rely on models that depend on a reversion to the mean when the mean itself is on the move.

Movie heroes usually emerge from their battles with demons and monsters triumphant, but somehow changed. Investors will come out of this crisis with a fresh reminder how shocks can be devastating and markets can turn surreal. Over time, most patterns will likely return closer to normal, but the savvy investor will keep a sharp eye out for any unusual clustering of frogs.


Dr. Christopher Smart is Chief Global Strategist and Head of the Barings Investment Institute. The Barings Investment Institute conducts proprietary research to help Barings' investments teams make the most of the firm’s unique expertise in public and private markets around the world, while exploring the forces that shape long-term investment and capital decisions.

It's not new about the usual Nigeria circulations of fake news in the country.
Today 27/04/2020,
A lady by name SUTO HENRY who reside at obot idim in Ibesikpo Asutan, a neighbouring community to Uyo the AkwaIbom state capital, this morning went to the popular Akpan Andem market which is situated along Udo Unana, off Aka road/Obio Imo str. in Uyo to buy some food commodities after being told that the lockdown was relaxed in the state.

She fortunately boarded a tricycle to the market only to be surprised after buying the whole stuff and she could not transfer herself and the items down home as there's no means of transportation available.

She had no option than to start trekking miles down to her resident after which she took the Lamentations to her Facebook page...
According to her status read thus:

#SUTOHENRY_FACEBOOKPOST
If I die today it's not coro ooo
it's trekking from Udo Umana to Obot Idim that killed me.
I went out to get some stuffs because I heard road will be open today only to trek home.
If you contributed in anyway to what I am going through right now, God will not forgive, you'll trek to hell and you'll not wear slippers. In fact, the street will be that of burning coal.
#AMTIRED!
#STOPTHEJOKE!
#SAVEOURSOULS!
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2754949154603959&id=100002667042233

In response to this outcry...
One of the personality in Uyo Ak_Kingsley on his reaction wrote...
And here i quote: While I join the campaign against fake news, let me say without apology that some people deserve to be victims of the rough side of fake news.

It is understandable if you don't have an Android device with battery and data, or you don't have access to television or radio. The one I don't understand are fellow young people who have access to sources of authentic information, but clearly refuse to receive information and prefer listening to music and watching movies 24/7.

I know so many educated young people who hate news, as in have news as their turn off, but will believe the slightest rumour or speculation and act on it. I maybe wrong, but this very common among young women in our clime.

For God's sake, we are in period where we need information more than before and we need it very frequently. Everyday, government sends out announcement, news are emanating, things are happening, but people prefer rumours.

My neighbor told me this morning that he hears that lockdown is lifted today, meanwhile his television is tuned to Africa Magic as of 6:30 or thereabout. The other one came in and complained why I'm watching Channels TV by 7, instead of movie. What is wrong with people? Who did this to us? He blames the youth for shunning the media while embracing much of entertainment etc...
And I add. Please avoid being a victim of fake news this period as it may land you in strange and unexpected place.... Stay safe, Covid19 is real. God help us � [color=#006600][/color]

I weep

As these politicians keeps politicising and playing with the virus as against the meaningful life of we citizens in this country.

May God in his infinite mercies expose them to the epidermic....

And they shall be deleted from this nation.

#AkwaIbomWithBadSignature

Is this thinking that he wants to feed prisoners or pigs with 300bags of beans?
Who cares??

Tomorrow he'll donate flour to the old women thinking they should start selling buns.
��������

I think prayer on its own part has a key role to play in saving and helping many patients recover....

ATTENTION!!!
GOOD PEOPLE OF NIGERIA & AKWA IBOM STATE
Mary Etim Unanaowo, an Oro daughter and a mother
of two (2) Eteka & Ubong is in dire straits right away at
the Emergency Unit of the University of Calabar
Teaching Hospital. The former NOWA Nursery School teacher who lost
her job recently to ill health was diagnosed of breast
cancer. And had to borrow and also drain her savings
to have a mastectomy.
The sad news now is that she cannot afford to pay for
her medical bills any longer and her health condition is deteriorating, leaving her two young sons very
vulnerable.
Pls let us all reach out to her and save a dying sister
from avoidable death.
AND FOR THOSE OF US WHO CAN REACH OUR STATE
GOVERNOR, LET US NOT HESITATE TO SEE HOW WE CAN DRAW HIS ATTENTION TO THIS UGLY SITUATION.
The family can be reached with 0803 063 9621.
Thanks!
Nseabasi S. J. King

An emir abducted an underaged girl, forcefully
converted her to his religion and married her off to
himself in Katsina state in Northern Nigeria, and many
people from that part of the country see nothing
wrong with the actions of the emir.
If this isn't paedophilia, I wonder what it is. I have often wondered how these old men have sex
with their child brides until I stumbled upon the
practice of thighing.
The northern elite class use religion, poverty and
illiteracy as tools of social control. They impoverish
and use the masses as their foot soldiers. I have never seen or heard about an underaged child
of a rich northern elite being married off. They always
have the best education and get married as young
adults to members of their fellow elite class. Neither
have I heard of an elite northerner being punished by
sharia law. It is always the weak, vulnerable and poor citizens
that are flogged and/or have their limbs hacked off.
A lot needs to be done in the North by way of
orientation. Brilliant and enlightened minds from
Northern Nigeria should be more vocal in condemning
these 19th century practices. #FreeHabiba

SHARE THIS POST!!!
If most of the general overseers in Nigeria come
together and bring 500 million each to bring up
industries, factories, and innovations, Nigeria will
tremendously change and Christianity will be seen in a
better light. Most very old primary schools in Nigeria schools and
hospitals in Nigeria in the rural areas were founded by
the Catholic church. Even if I don't agree with some of
their teachings, but they have many public facilities
that is accessible to all..
Go to catholic hospitals, you hardly pay a dime to be attended to. How many Pentecostal hospitals are that
way?
Can't Pentecostal general overseers come together
and build hospitals and schools that will cost almost
nothing for the masses to gain access to?
If most Pentecostal pastors come up with something the whole society can benefit from with almost
nothing..
We can do this. Our general overseers are very
wealthy. Some general overseers in Nigeria can raise
500 million in one service.
Let's contribute to civic development! Without shouting JESUS; a lot of people will see our
love and embrace Christ.

[color=#770077][/color][/b][code][/code][b] Could A Mother Go Along With Her Kid To Another
Man's House And Sleep Over in the #OTHER_ROOM?