Nyamuri:
You can't say it's a myth , that's figment of your imagination! Out of 19 northern states, only Benue and Plateau a Christian dominated

Only Benue and Plateau are known not to vote and align with us.. Buhari got 70% votes from the north in 2019, this definitely looks monolithic to any sane human

Before 2015, Buhari could only win a maximum of 12 states in the north.

The idea of a monolithic north is a myth.

By the way, there are majorities or very large minorities of Christains in Plateau, Benue, Nasarawa, Taraba, Adamawa, Kaduna, FCT, Gombe, Bauchi, Kogi, Borno, Kebbi, Niger, Kwara.

It is what it is, really

Nyamuri:
Lol so those minorities, don't they have a tribe or is it because they are minority that automatically makes them one entity!!

Know the peculiarity before u speak pls..so because jukun, angas or berom etc will vote certain way, that means ebira, gbagyi, igala, nupe etc most follow them ba!!

Nope...it just means that the supposed monolithic North is a myth, esp in this election.

People(whether collectively or individually) win vote who they want to vote.

Nyamuri:
Hausa/fulani and muslims are the majority in the north, so I have the right to generalise!!

All those regions you listed, they are the minority in that specific state

And there is nothing such as "south" you keep attaching to those state, the constitution and law only recognises states

Yea, the NC is made up of northern minorities. But they are there and are in the millions.

Also, those places in the NE and NW ("southern" portions of those states), are populated mostly by minorites too. They are also in the millions.

And they will vote

Good Evening

Nyamuri:
Kwankwasso cant compete in the north, his supporters including me know he won't go far, hence, we won't waste our votes on him.. however he might win Kano and get significant votes in jigawa state

North is between Tinubu and Atiku

When you say: North, you mean the Northeast and Northwest, right?

Altho there are Kaduna south Gombe South, Kebbi South, parts of Taraba, Adamawa, even Borno in that NE and NW.

Abi??

GceHolder:
Imagine cooking up fake statistics to promote your candidate. This is not right now.

Cc-nameo

Ok....good thing you went to check. I really like that.

Now, plzz post a screenshot of their response to you indicating that the said data set was wrong.

Else it will just be your word against the said data

A village?

E don dey reach Villages now?

They do not know what is coming....

First of all, some of the closest members of the current Obi's Presidential Team like his former Chief of Staff (Oseloka) is following any where he goes now.

Also, some others who served with him have openly been interviewed and even come live on Twitter spaces in support of him e.g his former Commisioner of Finance and also Head of Service. A lot of these persons were professionals who didnt steal, were not miserable hand-ons and just returned to their former jobs before they served under Obi(unlike those Thieves around Tinubu and Atiku who needs Govt money and patronage to survive).

Peter Obi has always been a different kind of politician. He is different. That is why everbody is currently supporting him(sane people that is)

Rozross:
Why has non of his appointees come out to support him? Big question you should ask

Lolz...do you know how terribly ignorant you are sounding with this right now?

Make una play better Propaganda, una no fit.

Dem select una??

Acidosis:



PDP go dey regret now.

Seriously.

Lolz...where are those my friends yterday who were telling us(wey dey ground) say Okowa will win Delta State.

Na laught i dey.

Some persons still do not know what is going on.

GceHolder:
I’ve contact GlobalDatalab. I’m awaiting response.

What a poorly scripted data from peter obi & supporters..

Ok...we are waiting for you Bros.

It is good to always check and verify.

Plzz let us know when you get feedback

Kyase:

Show us what’s on ground oga

If it’s by data, economically Buhari is the best president ever, so what are you Saying

What did you just say @ emboldened??

Tell me you are joking plzz. You want to unwittedly commit blasphemy abi?

Which economic data or even index are you talking about?

Nigeria is worse off on EVERY economic index since Buhari came in. Every single one of them.
Plzz respond here if you have any counter claim to this plzz.

fiizznation:
This guy is a complete clown. If this guy is the best the southeast can present then am completely disappointed in them. A guy that isn't serious, gallivanting around the globe with the funds that are pumped into their campaign by gullible supporters, doesn't understand the simplest basic of economics which is demand and supply, graduated with a pass in philosophy, doesn't know what green energy stands for, performed woefully as the governor of Anambra State, etc.

Not that he is going to win 3 states, but for someone that will be representing the east, he ought to do better. Or maybe the east should present a better candidate next time.

Lols... just look at this nonenthity ala old man describing a guy who was Chairman of a Bank in Nigeria before 40 yrs as a "Clown".

Lolz.

You can imagine Tinubu or Atiku supporters questioning the intellect of someone like Obi!!!

Una no sabi do this Propaganda at all. No wonder why Obi is building momentum day in, day out.

Urchinns!!!

ufuosman:
Not as u think. Okowa will win delta bt with small margin

Nope... he wouldnt

But i dont wanna argue with anybody on this

Yes, it is

It is also one of the most spoken languages in Africa, behind I think Swahili(not even sure of this).

babyfaceafrica:
He will win, maybe not high votes, but Atiku will win!

No, Bros

Atiku will not win Delta.

He will get 25% tho and the most votes from any other state in SS. That is the best Okowa can do for him

Vote4Obi:
You probably must have heard about the famed Kardashians or KKK states and how they determine election outcomes. Incidentally, that reality no longer holds because of current dynamics. Also, it has been variously stated that Kano is the most important state in terms of vote output but again, Rivers is now technically more important!

Firstly, here is the list of 10 states with the highest number of voters:

1. Lagos 7,155,920.
2. Kano 6,026,850.
3. Kaduna 4,411,723.
4. Rivers 3,689,197.
5. Katsina 3,570,740.
6. Delta 3,368,791.
7. Oyo 3,330,336.
8. Benue 2,832,087.
9. Bauchi 2,801,512.
10. Anambra 2,761,467.

Of the 10 most important states, 4 of them i.e. Rivers, Anambra, Delta, and Benue are likely to give Obi block votes. In addition to that, Obi may also pull a surprise by winning Lagos and Kaduna states!

Another remarkable point is that Lagos could go either to Obi or Tinubu. Kano may go either way to Kwankwaso or Atiku. Kaduna may go to Atiku, Tinubu or Obi. Oyo would have given Tinubu block votes but the governor is PDP and Obi-dient which dilutes the outcome. However, Rivers is absolutely certain to go to Obi with block votes. This makes the state more influencial Kano that would be devoured by up to 3 candidates, each grabbing high percentages.

What this means is that in absolute numbers, Obi is most likely to get the highest votes cast and also has a more assured base while Tinubu and Atiku are not sure of what they would get because of volatility and stiff competition in their supposed bases.

These 10 states cumulatively have about 40 million voters out of a total of 96 million and probably half goes to Obi.

These same factors are more or less same in the other 26 states and the FCT, which favours Obi.

Once again, congratulations to Obi, our incoming GCFR!!!!!!

Great analysis, Bruv

Likely possibility, but the Obi Team should see it as a "path to victory" and work assiduously towards its fulfilment.

heniford2:
Youths are not smiling
Oh!

At this stage, it is not just the Youths Bruv

Agboriotejoye:
CAC is a majority Yoruba Pentecostal church

Yea...you are very correct!!!

Prophet Babalola and co

Okwyjesus:
This Obidents came prepared.

Udoh...

My brother, our Lives depend on our preparedness

It is a MOVEMENT

Peopel who undestand what a Movement is would not be surprised by this

tuniski:

Double the voters turnout in the south east and increase the remaining by half, the pattern of voting won't change except in the south east where emotions have overtaken reason!

OK...bye

tuniski:

You are just being emotional! Obidient folks are largely splinter group of PDP.

Bros, only 29% of registered voters voted in 2019( in the south it is even worse).

That is, a tiny minority of voters voted.

In 2023, this will certainly not be the case, again esp in the South. A lot of persons who do not vote will vote this time around( in my samll circle, I know a lot of them).

Deaden that idea of PDP or APC voters in 2023. If you are relying on that, you will be sorely disappointed.

Nyamuri:
Is he as competent as Tinubu, in terms of what they have achieved?

Yes, he is.

Altho, Lagos has also generally done well relative to other Nigerian states and Tinubu palyed a key part. The problem however is the part of the Lagos Leadership apparachik that resembles a criminal enterprise. That is really what a lot of people are afraid of in Lagos, apart from the fact that it can also have done a lot more

Nyamuri:
Bro, if we are making permutations, don't include taraba, nasarawa, Adamawa, kwarra, Kogi and Niger states, these are all Muslim majority state, as far as I'm concerned, only Benue and plateau are Christian dominated states in north.. so I don't see reason why not buhari/APC will not pull those figures

Lol were expecting APC/Buhari tyo lose in those states

Benue certainly surprised me, because even tho there are significant number of Muslims, but I doubt it's up to 30%

Well, I dont know the demograhies in those states, cos like everything in Naija, it is difficult to know stuffs like these in all certainty.

However, I thought that Taraba and Nasarawa are majority Christain states, albeit slightly. I have also heard same argument made for Adamawa. Others certainly have huge Christain minorities

Not sure tho

Kyase:


Nobody is asking him to buy votes just just encourage people to campaign for you
In 2015 a man in kaduna bought data for guys just to campaign for Buhari and I know how many people he won over because of that

Agreed!!!

tuniski:

They are largely PDP voters and will remain so.
The people I Pitt are the Obidient doing everything to enthrone tinubu presidency!

There is nothing like PDP or APC voters anywhere. You guys should deaden that sillly idea.

You chaps make it look like people are stupiid and have no agency.

Here on NL, most of the persons that voted and supported PDP in 2019 are now fervent Obi supporters. In fact, almost every oen I know supporting Obi today supported Atiku last time. Shouldnt that tell you something?

Kyase:

For obi to win, needs to target the northern Christians votes, he needs to lobby them all, but currently he’s doing something else, he should contact Babachir and Dogara ASAP before Atiku win them over, that will guarantee him 25% he needs in those Northern states, that’s if he can win the Christians votes in the south, we are ready to give bulk votes this time

Obi also needs to give shishi if he wants to win
That rubbish talk about no shishi is bullocks

Even the US buy votes systematically

You are right. It is quite simple: Obi cannot win without the Middle Belt votes. He not only needs them for the total number of votes but crucially in the quest to getting the rrquired 25% spread in order to win.

I really dont konw why discussuions have not started with Dogara and Co(except it is happening in the background). I know that the Middle Belt forum and some other MB groups are already openly supporting him.

As for money politics, he needs lots of it to win the elections. But am not worried about that. Money will come from everywhere once Obi/LP drops account. I however am opposed to vote buying. I find the whole idea of buying peoples vote neuseating and I detest it

Nyamuri:
I don't have prove, but I heard it from a very reliable source

However, PO is not competent in terms of what he has achieved as governor, nothing special about his tenure, unlike Tinubu on what he has achieved in Lagos state

See eh, there is no proof or evidence cos there is none. It NEVER happened.

The only state in the SE that wanted to do ID was Imo under Okorocha but that didnt even fly. It never happened in ANambra.

Moreover, there is NOTHING that suggests that Obi is bigoted in any way. If you study him, you would realise that that is not his style. And I can understand that cos I believe he thinks in similar way as myself. Same reason I cannot be bigoted in any way.

Those of you guys up north that are afraid of Obi just cos he is Igbo should really not have any fears. Obi is about the most investigated Nigerian politicain today(even your leaders in Upper North have had him investigated- I hope you know that). If there is any thing really off-putting as regards bigotry, it would have been released to the public long ago.

Nyamuri:
Show me an election buhari win in Benue, plateau since 1999

If APC/Buhari had won Benue, plateau and Abuja, we won't be needing SW votes.. the issue is not winning NC convincingly, that's why 1 other region is needed in the south.. take it or leave it, I'm a northerner.. northern Christians have never voted along with us both presidential and gubernatorial

Buhari won Benue in 2015. And got over 40% in Plateau, Taraba, Nasarawa, FCT and Adamawa. He also won other NC states at almost 60%(Kwara, Kogi, Niger). This was one of the main reasons he won that election. You can also add Adamawa and Gombe from the NE to it

Bros, i dont know what you are argiung really

nameo:


Bros, if the reverse was the case: you have a Christain-christain ticket and the possibility of Christains been President for at least 24 years straight, would you as a northern Muslim ever accept it regardless of any of the reasons given by a political party (ala, we want votes to win)?

I need only HONEST answers plzz

@ Nyamari, i await your response on this plzz