windywendy:

Which proshare article was that? I wasn't quoting any proshare article.

I use excel to do moving averages, and I do that for stocks that trigger my interest

My bad. It was aktopgun that quoted the proshare article.

https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria/topic-31554.6592.html#msg1741358

aktopgun:

@jehoshaphat

thanks for the info man. made things clearer definitely

i do think though that if you can afford it buy the goose instead of the egg ie flourmills instead of bagco.
bagco contributes to flourmills' bottom line because they own 70% of bagco and therefore 70% of whatever profit bagco make until that situation changes.

i know flourmills may be a bit steep in terms of price but if one can i would think this would be a better option, not to say bagco in itself isn't a good buy

Bagco is a good buy but there will be oversubscription and money will be refunded back to many people.

Peace.

Mr. Cee:

@WINDYWENDY,

PLEASE WHICH FIRM IS YOUR STOCK BROKER ?

FSDH

Pennywise:

@all
This thread has no doubt become the single most important resource on the NSE. My brother called me today asking precisely the same questions about the NSE that have been addressed on this forum. Of course all I did was send him the link.Great forum greater people.

Perhaps the single most important contribution I have seen yet is from fatherof2. It is the concept of picking specific stocks on monday and selling on thursday or friday to make 25%. This concept that I will call the Fatherof2 factor of the NSE, immediately obnoxious, detestable and entirely against the idea of a stock exchange was not devised but revealed to all by our contributor. There is no doubt that a lot of people have made billions from the system using this ingenious tactic. We hope regulators are observing this trend (if they are not part of this awoof strategy). . .

Don't be deceived. NO BODY makes 25% return every week on the NSE, not even Fatherof2 himself .

@Fatherof2, if na lie I lie, pls speak up

easimoni:

My bad. It was aktopgun that quoted the proshare article.

https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria/topic-31554.6592.html#msg1741358

awwwww, thanks for the clarification _{I was beginning to think there was another windywendy impostor}

@ ALL

Please if I want to insert quotes from previous pages how would I go about it?

jehosaphat:

@ Pumping
When you refer to "cheaper deals in the market or about to come out", would you kindly point out a couple  ( Cheaper than Bagco) so that I pounce on them? I know you don't mean Zenith, Fidelity and Afribank. Phb is definitely a buy but Bagco ranks among the better offers for sure. Like Wanajo said about Aiico, they merged with (or bought) another coy so we don't even know what the true outstanding shares are yet. Costain should be good too, lets wait and see.

Bank PHB and Zenith are better priced POs in my opinion even based on current earning levels. So I don't even want to consider that I have not seen Zenith's prospectus.  I have my analysis on Bagco, Bank PHB and Zenith in this thread somewhere. No patience to dig them out right now. My analysis of Bagco is based on what they have projected in their prospectus. Based on this projection, it is expensive for the price. I am not talking about the nominal price now.

I have seen other analysis suggesting that the projections are conservative so maybe Bagco will do better. If this is the case, good, but I don't want to assume they will do better than they have promised.

On the other hand, there is money to be made with the Bagco offer because it is an IPO (Not PO) and will be listed for the first time. The price is likely to head north as we have seen with most newly quoted stocks (Not like Transcorp sha!!). It will most likely be oversubscribed so there is the chance of making quick bucks. This will likely be based on sentiments and not necessarily the good returns from Bagco.

Mr. Cee:

@ ALL

Please if I want to insert quotes from previous pages how would I go about it?

Locate the post from the user. Click on the user name to go to the profile page.

At the bottom, under "Additional Information", Click on
"Show the last posts of this person".

Locate the post and click on "quote".

Fire on.

pumping777:

AG Leventis (Last Fiscal Year)

The turnover of the company increased by 1.43%, from N7 billion to N7.1 billion in 2006. profit after tax also increased from N343 million to N395 million in 2006, an increase of 14.9%. The full year EPS stood at N0.18, while a dividend of N0.10 was approved. The company is likely to begin manufacturing of generators here in Nigeria, and this will boost its profitability in the nearest future. It would interest you to know that Nigeria is the largest importer of generators in the world at present.The register closure date ids May 14, 2007.

So in Q-4, turnover grew from 5.08B to 7.1B but PAT only grew from 0.36B to 4B. Most of the PAT was reported in Q-3 in 2006 and also in 2007, but Q-4 2006 recorded a PAT that is only about 25% of the PAT in Q-3 2006.

To summarize, I think one can enter this short term because this growth may not be sustained in Q-4.

@Pumping777, I'm still interested in why you think growth may not be sustained for AG leventis. _{Just checking to be sure I have all my facts right . . .}

windywendy:

@Pumping777, I'm still interested in why you think growth may not be sustained for AG leventis. _{Just checking to be sure I have all my facts right . . .}

Think he used past performances in that quarter to project.seems they made less profit in Q4 for the last two years.Think the pattern might not be sustained?

damoche07:

Think he used past performances in that quarter to project.seems they made less profit in Q4 for the last two years.Think the pattern might not be sustained?

Oh ok. Thanks for the clarification

damoche07:

Think he used past performances in that quarter to project.seems they made less profit in Q4 for the last two years.Think the pattern might not be sustained?

Thanks. I think my using the phrase "growth may not be sustained" is confusing.

I meant to say that after checking previous years, the PAT generated in Q-4 is only about 25% of the PAT reported in Q-3 which is the quarter in which majority of PAT is reported.

So in projecting full year PAT one should not make a linear projection. So calculation of FY PAT = 4/3 multiplied by Q-3 PAT may result in a grossly inaccurate projection.

My conservative full year PAT based on this observation is now 460M instead of 550M.

Still on AG Leventis.

Let me throw this to the house. I need help here. I am attaching 3 years interim results (Thanks bro). The Q-1 for 2006 is missing.

Please project PAT for full year 2007 based on the interim results for 2007 and the pattern from 2005 and 2006. I am beginning to think the 460M I have projected is too conservative.

@ EASIMONI, TEMMIE10, gtb PAT last year was 13bn, and so far they have grown 55%. thats already 20bn, i expect them tov hitbmore and get about 21bn, thats chow i got my forward pe of 18.7

unic climbed up today, na una cause am oooooooooooooooooooooooo

pumping777:

Still on AG Leventis.

Let me throw this to the house. I need help here. I am attaching 3 years interim results (Thanks bro). The Q-1 for 2006 is missing.

Please project PAT for full year 2007 based on the interim results for 2007 and the pattern from 2005 and 2006. I am beginning to think the 460M I have projected is too conservative.

The results are funky: over the last 7 Qs, they've been making ~100M per Q and in the 3rd Q of the current  year, they make 200M despite a DROP in revenue. The % increase over the same period last year was not impressive because they restated the 9 mnth 06 as 355 when it was 298. If we think they still make 100M per Q, the FY will be ~510. If they make 200M per Q from this point forward, FY will be closer to 610

shigidi:

unic climbed up today, na una cause am oooooooooooooooooooooooo

What about "our" university press. Up 10% in the last 2 sessions. Na Shigidi cause am o.  My broker no see buy again. Next time, I no go talk until I don buy finish.

ALL (esp those of you who use the FSDH report to build your own sheets)

I hope you noticed the change in WAPIC's name and location on the report. Screwed up my trend analysis till I noticed.

Alert!!!

I suppose most saw the results of Premier paints today.

Very fishy. Suddenly we have results for 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006.

Losses in 2003 and 2004 with the company returning to profit in 2005 and 2006!!

Profit in 2006 is 9.4M from a turnover of 203.1M. However, exceptional item of 25M, so it should really have been a loss of 16.6M.

Smells very much like Livestock Feeds. The next thing I suspect is the announcement of a PO or rights issue for a company that has rebounded to profits.

I just have the feeling.

easimoni:

What about "our" university press. Up 10% in the last 2 sessions. Na Shigidi cause am o. My broker no see buy again. Next time, I no go talk until I don buy finish.

I have finally concluded that some agents for some institutional investors on the NSE are lurking here in the shadows

IBTC MARKETWATCH DEC 3 (INVESTMENTS TO WATCH)
IBTC STOCKWATCH BAGCO IPO
IBTC STOCK SELECT 3 DEC 2007

click here
http://www.emmaachile.itgo.com/

easimoni:

The results are funky: over the last 7 Qs, they've been making ~100M per Q and in the 3rd Q of the current year, they make 200M despite a DROP in revenue. The % increase over the same period last year was not impressive because they restated the 9 mnth 06 as 355 when it was 298. If we think they still make 100M per Q, the FY will be ~510. If they make 200M per Q from this point forward, FY will be closer to 610

AG Leventis is a hot buy for me then. The forward PE is now less than 11.5 if they can hit 610M. windywendy's analysis now makes more sense to me. I'm no longer standing in this bus. I am taking a seat beside the driver

pumping777:

AG Leventis is a hot buy for me then. The forward PE is now less than 11.5 if they can hit 610M. windywendy's analysis now makes more sense to me. I'm no longer standing in this bus. I am taking a seat beside the driver

Your broker will compete with my broker! 

shigidi:

@ EASIMONI, TEMMIE10, gtb PAT last year was 13bn, and so far they have grown 55%. thats already 20bn, i expect them tov hitbmore and get about 21bn, thats chow i got my forward pe of 18.7

i see where you're comin from,
its a bit tricky but it could well be worth it,
Sold my gtb a few months back at 33, that was part of the funds that i channelled to wema, one of the best investment decisions i made this year.

I'm hearing all this positive news about UBA and Zenith and co. Is First Bank not aggressive enough to grow or is the "elephant" too big to pursue that mouse inside it's nest? The bank's website seems outdated, no Diaspora offerings, poor to non existent advertising for new customers etc. I know that they are making money servicing large debts and extending loans but the real money is in the 140 million customers, not the two or ten huge loans. Have they concluded talks with ETI or is that still in the works?

Wanajo, I know you are a staunch FBN party man, what makes you believe in them, why are they the largest part of yur portfoio?

easimoni:

Your broker will compete with my broker!

My broker has just join the race too, lets see who the winner will be by Thursday.

pumping777:

I think OandO is already hot but maybe you want to wait till year end results. I am already playing though.  Except for a late challenge from AP, I expect them to post the best PAT even after deducting minority interest.  They are on course for at least PAT 0f 3.8B even after deducting minority interest. Just see what Chevron and Total posted this week. They are nowhere near even in terms of value (not just PAT).

Let's see if AP will spring an Otedola surprise. I already sold my AP after 50% gain within 7 weeks.. My #1 gamble stock for this year.

Who is riding with OandO? See the jist over 25% days ago. _{3 weeks ago}

AP is hitting the rooftops and I believe OandO will always follow suit. This is what I want to term profit by association    Seriously though, OandO generates more income than AP so what else can be expected?

AP already has a forward PE of 27 compared to 20 for OandO. I am moving from the front seat to the owner's corner in OandO's fast accelerating limousine

Rob-roy:

I'm hearing all this positive news about UBA and Zenith and co. Is First Bank not aggressive enough to grow or is the "elephant" too big to pursue that mouse inside it's nest? The bank's website seems outdated, no Diaspora offerings, poor to non existent advertising for new customers etc. I know that they are making money servicing large debts and extending loans but the real money is in the 140 million customers, not the two or ten huge loans. Have they concluded talks with ETI or is that still in the works?

Wanajo, I know you are a staunch FBN party man, what makes you believe in them, why are they the largest part of yur portfoio?

i quite like fbn too.
i just think its really a case of your investing objectives with FBN.
Good consistent dividends (and bonus), very little risk, mature market player, sound and experienced management team, massive brand leverage, more than adequate capital base, as much liquidity as you want, you wouldnt be losing any sleep over fbn in a bear market, and the rate of return is anywhere from modest to excellent. Yes FBN wont go trippling but should yield more than acceptable returns year in year out, still very much a market leader
FBN have a subsidiary here in London so i wouldn't be needing a diaspora account,

Hi Guys,
Does anyone know which of these two stock I can invest 400,000K on. PHB or Zenith. Any contribution will be well appreciated.
cheers

pumping777:

In my case I missed it because I still lack some results dating to the past.

On the surface it is easy to miss because the Q-2 PAT was only 0.22B. However, considering the Q-3 PAT for 2006 was 0.36B and the Q-2 PAT for 2006 was 0.18B, one should have caught on the trend that the Q-3 PAT could be significantly higher.

The only problem is that I did not have the Q-3 result for 2006. What we need now is the full year for 2006. I am going to go find it now.

Yes, if I can get tomorrow or Friday, I am in.

@damoche07 - Did you get some?

My broker got some on Thursday though at a slight premium to today's closing price but no complaints.

@easimoni and crazyT - My order has gone out for tomorrow. I beg let me complete my small purchase before the elephants cause Tsunami inside the the market o   .

Labo:

Hi Guys,
Does anyone know which of these two stock I can invest 400,000K on. PHB or Zenith. Any contribution will be well appreciated.
cheers

Based on the combination I want to assume you are looking at the POs.

If this is the case, then due to possible over-subscription, I will advice that you do both so you have less chances of returned funds.

easimoni:

ALL (esp those of you who use the FSDH report to build your own sheets)

I hope you noticed the change in WAPIC's name and location on the report. Screwed up my trend analysis till I noticed.

You should have seen the confusion in my eyes after seeing the sudden very "green" PE ratio of Sovereign Trust insurance after entering the new results!!! Came down to earth when I saw the price did not match and this was due to the changed position of Wapic