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What Does Putin Really Want In Ukraine? (Analysis) - Foreign Affairs - Nairaland

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What Does Putin Really Want In Ukraine? (Analysis) by Nobody: 8:23pm On Feb 24, 2022
What has set the stage for the conflict?

Ukraine was a cornerstone of the Soviet Union until it voted overwhelmingly for independence in a democratic referendum in 1991, a milestone that turned out to be a death knell for the failing superpower.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, NATO pushed eastward, bringing into the fold most of the Eastern European nations that had been in the Communist orbit. In 2004, NATO added the former Soviet Baltic republics Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Four years later, it declared its intention to offer membership to Ukraine some day in the distant future -- crossing a red line for Russia.

Putin sees NATO's expansion as an existential threat, and the prospect of Ukraine joining the Western military alliance a "hostile act" -- a view he invoked in a televised speech on Thursday, saying that Ukraine's aspiration to join the military alliance was a dire threat to Russia.

In interviews and speeches, Putin has previously emphasized his view that Ukraine is part of Russia, culturally, linguistically and politically. While some of the mostly Russian-speaking population in Ukraine's east feel the same, a more nationalist, Ukrainian-speaking population in the west has historically supported greater integration with Europe.

What does Putin want?

In a lengthy essay penned in July 2021, Putin referred to Russians and Ukrainians as "one people," and suggested the West had corrupted Ukraine and yanked it out of Russia's orbit through a "forced change of identity."

That type of historical revisionism was on full display in Putin's emotional and grievance-packed address to the nation on Monday announcing his decision to recognize the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, while casting doubt on Ukraine's own sovereignty.

But Ukrainians, who in the last three decades have sought to align more closely with Western institutions like the European Union and NATO, have pushed back against the notion that they are little more than the West's "puppet."

In fact, Putin's efforts to bring Ukraine back into Russia's sphere have been met with a backlash, with several recent polls showing that a majority of Ukrainians now favor membership of the US-led transatlantic military alliance.

In December, Putin presented the US and NATO with a list of security demands. Chief among them was a guarantee that Ukraine will never enter NATO and that the alliance rolls back its military footprint in Eastern and Central Europe -- proposals that the US and its allies have repeatedly said are non-starters.

Putin indicated he was not interested in lengthy negotiations on the topic. "It is you who must give us guarantees, and you must do it immediately, right now," he said at his annual news conference late last year. "Are we deploying missiles near the US border? No, we are not. It is the United States that has come to our home with its missiles and is already standing at our doorstep."

High-level talks between the West and Russia wrapped in January without any breakthroughs. The standoff left Europe's leaders to engage in a frenzy of shuttle diplomacy, exploring whether a negotiating channel established between France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine to resolve the conflict in Ukraine's east -- known as the Normandy Format talks -- could provide an avenue for calming the current crisis.

In a news conference with the new German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on February 16, Putin repeated unsubstantiated claims that Ukraine is carrying out a "genocide" against Russian speakers in the Donbas region and called for the conflict to be resolved through the Minsk peace progress -- echoing similar rhetoric that was used as a pretext for annexing Crimea.

But less than a week later, after Russia's upper house of parliament approved the deployment of military forces outside the country on February 22, Putin told reporters that the Minsk agreements "no longer exist," adding: "What is there to implement if we have recognized these two entities?"

The agreements, known as Minsk 1 and Minsk 2 -- which were hammered out in the Belarusian capital in a bid to end a bloody in eastern Ukraine -- have never been fully implemented, with key issues remaining unresolved.

Moscow and Kyiv have long been at odds over key elements of the peace deal, the second of which was inked in 2015 and lays out a plan for reintegrating the two breakaway republics into Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently stated that he did not like a single point of the Minsk accords, which require dialogue on local elections in the Russian-backed separatist regions and -- although unclear in what sequence -- would also restore the Ukrainian government's control over its eastern borders. Critics say the agreement could give Moscow undue sway over Ukrainian politics.

Putin previously responded in blunt terms by saying that regardless of whether Zelensky likes the plan, it must be implemented. "Like it or don't like it, it's your duty, my beauty," Putin said in a news conference alongside French President Emmanuel Macron. Zelensky, a former comedian and TV star, won a 2019 election in a landslide on promises to end the war in Donbas, but little has changed. Responding to a question about Putin's stark, undiplomatic language, Zelensky responded in Russian, saying bluntly: "We are not his."

What is Ukraine's view?

President Zelensky previously downplayed the danger of all-out war with Russia, noting that the threat has existed for years and that Ukraine is prepared for military aggression. But on Thursday, as Russia launched an assault on his country, Zelensky made an emotional address directly to the Ukrainian people, declaring martial law in the country.

"Russia began an attack on Ukraine today. Putin began war against Ukraine, against the entire democratic world. He wants to destroy my country, our country, everything we've been building, everything we are living for," Zelensky said in a video message posted on his official Facebook page.

In Kyiv, where Ukrainians had continued to go about their daily business while Russian troops sat at their borders, the streets were empty on Thursday. Across the country, residents have been preparing for the worst -- packing emergency evacuation kits and taking time out of their weekends to train as reservists.

Ukraine's government insists that Moscow cannot prevent Kyiv from building closer ties with NATO, or otherwise interfere in its domestic or foreign politics. "Russia cannot stop Ukraine from getting closer with NATO and has no right to have any say in relevant discussions," the Foreign Ministry said in a statement to CNN.

Tensions between the two countries have been exacerbated by a deepening Ukrainian energy crisis that Kyiv believes Moscow has purposefully provoked. Ukraine views the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline -- connecting Russian gas supplies directly to Germany -- as a threat to its own security.

Nord Stream 2 is one of two pipelines that Russia has laid underwater in the Baltic Sea -- in addition to its traditional land-based pipeline network that runs through eastern Europe, including Ukraine. Kyiv views the pipelines across Ukraine as an element of protection against invasion by Russia, since any military action could potentially disrupt the vital flow of gas to Europe.

After requests from Zelensky and the US administration, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Tuesday that he would halt the certification of the pipeline following Putin's decision to order troops into parts of eastern Ukraine.

Nord Stream 2 is just one of myriad challenges facing Zelensky's government. The former actor, who played a president on Ukrainian television, has had a brutal baptism of fire into real-world politics since assuming office in 2019.

His government's popularity has stagnated amid multiple domestic political challenges, including a recent third wave of Covid-19 infections and a struggling economy. Many Ukrainians are unhappy that the government has not delivered on the promises that brought it into power, including cracking down on corruption in the country's judicial system. But the more pressing concern is Zelensky's failure so far to bring peace to the country.

Source: https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/24/europe/ukraine-russia-conflict-explainer-2-cmd-intl/index.html

9 Likes 6 Shares

Re: What Does Putin Really Want In Ukraine? (Analysis) by Blackbelly(m): 8:26pm On Feb 24, 2022
cry

1 Like 3 Shares

Re: What Does Putin Really Want In Ukraine? (Analysis) by DenreleDave(m): 8:36pm On Feb 24, 2022
angry angry angry
Re: What Does Putin Really Want In Ukraine? (Analysis) by Righteousness2(m): 8:36pm On Feb 24, 2022
Putin (Gog) is not really interested in occupying Ukraine. Russia - Ukraine is just a smoke screen for what is Coming!
All He is striving for is to hold the territory just like it was during the Soviet Union.

He is out for world Dominance. He is out to Physically,tactically and systematically Displace Nomerica aka the Sleeping Giant.

With all these sanctions upon sanctions,
Don't be Suprised if Russia hits Nomerica with an Electro Magnetic pulse weapon ( EMP) across the sky. They are no deadly nukes but they will kill all her Power grids and send her into dark ages! ( No Internet, cellphone, tv, satellite, cables etc)

GOD ALMIGHTY is one who runs this earth and HE gives Power to whoever HE deems feat. Nomerica cup of Iniquity is Full to the brim so Power is Changing hands.

Putin will get Power drunk and GOD will put HIS hook in his mouth and Drag him down to Israel to invade Israel for its wealth and resources.
Putin( Gog) will come against Israel with the GogMagog Collation, and that is where GOD ALMIGHTY Himself will Cripple him and the Nations with him and the world will Understand that the GOD of Israel is the one that Runs this Earth.

We are living in Biblical times. It will be wars upon wars upon wars!
Whoever Loves his life should Ensure your relationship with JESUS Christ is intact .
The Rapture can Happen at anymoment!
It will be like a movie!

130 Likes 17 Shares

Re: What Does Putin Really Want In Ukraine? (Analysis) by Hanibbal(m): 8:40pm On Feb 24, 2022
Ukrainian President is not wise.

73 Likes 2 Shares

Re: What Does Putin Really Want In Ukraine? (Analysis) by McGg: 8:41pm On Feb 24, 2022
USA is such a bully

28 Likes 6 Shares

Re: What Does Putin Really Want In Ukraine? (Analysis) by Jokerman(m): 8:42pm On Feb 24, 2022
Who cares what they want??

No to war.....

5 Likes 1 Share

Re: What Does Putin Really Want In Ukraine? (Analysis) by McGg: 8:42pm On Feb 24, 2022
[quote author=Righteousness2 post=110518758]Ok[/quot

As usual you won't fail to disappoint

3 Likes

Re: What Does Putin Really Want In Ukraine? (Analysis) by oz4real83(m): 9:10pm On Feb 24, 2022
When your enemy tells you to hand over your weapon of protection, with a promise to protect you, it is the biggest foolishness to believe the promise of that enemy. Ukraine used to hold either the second or third highest cache of soviet nuclear weaponry before the fall of the soviet union. After the fall, Russia asked Ukraine to hand them over with a promise never to invade any part of Ukraine. Ukraine believed Russia and handed the weapons to them, instead of using them to protect itself. No country has invaded North Korea despite its attrocities just because of its nuclear weapons holdings. Russia would have thought twice before invading Ukraine if they still had those nuclear weaponry.

148 Likes 8 Shares

Re: What Does Putin Really Want In Ukraine? (Analysis) by Afonjashapmouth: 11:50am On Feb 25, 2022
Whatever he want make Naija sha no put mouth cos even the sound of KNOCKOUT dey give some people hypertension

22 Likes 1 Share

Re: What Does Putin Really Want In Ukraine? (Analysis) by lied(f): 11:50am On Feb 25, 2022
World war-3 should happen fast. I want the world to end jare.

11 Likes

Re: What Does Putin Really Want In Ukraine? (Analysis) by Chigozirimkpoma: 11:50am On Feb 25, 2022
sad
Re: What Does Putin Really Want In Ukraine? (Analysis) by ThatHistoryGuy(m): 11:50am On Feb 25, 2022
cool
Re: What Does Putin Really Want In Ukraine? (Analysis) by Nobody: 11:50am On Feb 25, 2022
Putin is still the loser here, the whole world is against him, people would hate Russia even more now

28 Likes 4 Shares

Re: What Does Putin Really Want In Ukraine? (Analysis) by useni1: 11:51am On Feb 25, 2022
You want me to read this trash written by CNN?

33 Likes 1 Share

Re: What Does Putin Really Want In Ukraine? (Analysis) by eedimo(m): 11:51am On Feb 25, 2022
Journalism of emotional blackmail.
The Author wants the world to use his brain in thinking. undecided

4 Likes 1 Share

Re: What Does Putin Really Want In Ukraine? (Analysis) by sweerychick(f): 11:51am On Feb 25, 2022
SIMPLE! PUTIN WANTS TO BRING BACK THE SOVIET UNION... HE IS A KGB AGENT AND HE DOESNT WANT THE INFLUNCE OF THE WEST.

SINCE THE COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET UNION RUSSIA HASNT BEEN HAPPY WITH THE WEST. THAT IS WHY PUTIN TOOK CONTROL OF RUSSIA AFTER BORIS YELTSIN BECAUSE HE SAW YELTSIN AS A WESTERN PUPPET....

PUTIN DOESNT WANT THE INFLUNCE OF THE WEST IN EASTERN EUROPE

20 Likes 1 Share

Re: What Does Putin Really Want In Ukraine? (Analysis) by paulolee(m): 11:51am On Feb 25, 2022
so the whole world is on stand still n in panic bcox of wat a mere mortal wants?
if man na GOD eeh, we all for don turn dust since

4 Likes

Re: What Does Putin Really Want In Ukraine? (Analysis) by luminouz(m): 11:51am On Feb 25, 2022
Nice one....
So at least some Nigerians go cure their ignorance

5 Likes

Re: What Does Putin Really Want In Ukraine? (Analysis) by wordproof: 11:52am On Feb 25, 2022
Well I've a different perspective to this whole thing, I believe dis Putin's approach is a way to avoid future wars, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania were all former USSR territory but now part of NATO, US already have missiles and defense systems in Romania, we all know wat Ukraine joining NATO could mean for Russia, ofcoz on day Ukraine will want Creme back and that could start a war that will eventually consume the whole Europe...its better to settle things now than later...if u want peace u go to war, so that after war u will have a lasting peace.

3 Likes

Re: What Does Putin Really Want In Ukraine? (Analysis) by Nobody: 11:52am On Feb 25, 2022
CNN is your source? Funny. No wonder it's tinged with propaganda.

29 Likes 1 Share

Re: What Does Putin Really Want In Ukraine? (Analysis) by Whazar(m): 11:52am On Feb 25, 2022
Some people want Biafra but are supporting Russia in this just because they hate America

Same thing Naija is doing to them is what they are applauding Russia for

When will our Igbo brothers get over Trump’s loss

9 Likes 3 Shares

Re: What Does Putin Really Want In Ukraine? (Analysis) by ShenTeh(m): 11:52am On Feb 25, 2022
A sovereign nation should get your nod before protecting itself.

That's some balderdash!

But see as the west dey promise weapons and aids but not fingers and feet. #WeepforUkraine

My biggest take-home is that African leaders should give themselves sense. If you start any my war, na to dey sell/send weapons the West dey o.

#NoHelpIsComing.

4 Likes

Re: What Does Putin Really Want In Ukraine? (Analysis) by jiz: 11:53am On Feb 25, 2022
My own concern are the innocent children in Ukraine, because in every war, children suffer most. They should make peace for the sake of this innocent young generation. Lord heal the world

7 Likes 2 Shares

Re: What Does Putin Really Want In Ukraine? (Analysis) by Saifullah01: 11:53am On Feb 25, 2022
Here is brief my take.

Russia's concern
As much as the West may like to dismiss this, Russia has real security concerns about NATOs expansion eastward. Originally, even though not stated in so many words, NATO was basically an anti Russia alliance. It is therefore not out of places to expect Russia to counter NATO.
The West's mistake was dismissing Russia's concerns of NATOs expansion all these years. This war is the result.

Ukrainian concerns
Ukrain as a sovereign nation has the right to choose its alliances, but unfortunately it tried to do so naively oblivious of the greater geopolitical power play between Russia and the west. Forget all the talk about we are all equals - a cat should know its place among bigger cats.

America's double standard
America is willing to go thousands of miles across continents to bomb groups or regimes it considers at odds with its national (and sometimes economic) interests. Even against UN mandates. The Americans adventures in South America, South east Asia, Iraq, Somalia, Libya etc. are all on records.
Mr Putin's current reaction to the prospect Americans stationing missile systems (defensive or offensive) in Ukraine in the name of NATOs alliance shouldn't come as a surprise in western capitals. Especially given that America also rejected that prospect of the former USSR having missiles in Cuba not too long ago

My conclusion
America came into global prominence after it was perceived that its joining of the first world war help brought the war to an end. In fact the then president Wilson was so respected that his ideals of a world order were each sovereign nation is respected big or small formed the new basis of international engagements. Known as the Wilsonian Idealism, these set of ideas earned America a lot of respect as the champions of freedom everywhere it even earned them the nick name of global police. But the same Americans that enabled a world order that unbundled colonialsm, ended the nazis and defeated communism are the same ones that are destabilising international justice and peace on the plater of national interest. Hence, fast becoming what they used to fight against. Let's see where this next chapter leads us...

52 Likes 7 Shares

Re: What Does Putin Really Want In Ukraine? (Analysis) by NwaNimo1(m): 11:53am On Feb 25, 2022

4 Likes

Re: What Does Putin Really Want In Ukraine? (Analysis) by Kutunban: 11:54am On Feb 25, 2022
It is well
Re: What Does Putin Really Want In Ukraine? (Analysis) by seyicodes(m): 11:54am On Feb 25, 2022
I will call Putin

2 Likes

Re: What Does Putin Really Want In Ukraine? (Analysis) by DONFRANSKID(m): 11:54am On Feb 25, 2022
Make una carry me go Ukraine I'm ready to fight
If they will make me a citizen
Re: What Does Putin Really Want In Ukraine? (Analysis) by donholy28(m): 11:54am On Feb 25, 2022
Righteousness2:
Putin (Gog) is not really interested in occupying Ukraine. Russia - Ukraine is just a smoke screen for what is Coming!
All He is striving for is to hold the territory just like it was during the Soviet Union.

He is out for world Dominance. He is out to Physically,tactically and systematically Displace Nomerica aka the Sleeping Giant.

With all these sanctions upon sanctions,
Don't be Suprised if Russia hits Nomerica with an Electro Magnetic pulse weapon ( EMP) across the sky. They are no deadly nukes but they will kill all her Power grids and send her into dark ages! ( No Internet, cellphone, tv, satellite, cables etc)

GOD ALMIGHTY is one who runs this earth and HE gives Power to whoever HE deems feat. Nomerica cup of inquiry is Full to the brim so Power is Changing hands.

Putin will get Power drunk and GOD will put HIS hook in his mouth and Drag him down to Israel.
Putin( Gog) will come against Israel with the GogMagog Collation and that is where GOD ALMIGHTY Himself will Cripple him and the Nations with him and the world will Understand that the GOD of Israel is the one that Runs this Earth.

We are living in Biblical times. It will be wars or wars upon wars!
Whoever Loves his life should Ensure your relationship with JESUS Christ is intact .
The Rapture can Happen at anymoment!
It will be like a movie!
lol you'll just enter every post and type nonsense. Putin is not doing it to dominate the world, he's doing it to protect Russia from US. How can Ukraine want to join NATO that is a sworn enemy of Russia? Tomorrow now US will deploy troops to Ukraine under disguise of them being a fellow NATO ally and from there mount attacks against Russia. If Russia should form alliance with Mexico trust me US will do worse against the Mexicans. The West is not to be trusted and it will be foolish of Russia to allow them have a base in their own backyard.

54 Likes 2 Shares

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