The General elections of 2023 is fast approaching and with what could be argued as the most hotly contested presidential race ever. We have four main aspirants from 4 different Geo-political zones- who are vying for the votes of the nation.

Fmr. Governor Tinubu (APC)-South West
Fmr.VP Atiku Abubakar (PDP)-North East
Fmr. Gov Kwankwaso (NNPP)- North West
Fmr. Gov Peter Obi (LP)- South East

I thought it would be a worthwhile assignment to try and pre-emp the balloting outcomes by zones based on voting patterns of the most recent 2019 presidential ballot. The only aspirant to have competed in the 2019 elections was Atiku Abubakar, who went up against and lost to the current incumbent Buhari. On the table below is a breakdown of the votes in 2019 by state and by geo-political zones.

North East: A total of 4,510,220 votes were registered with Buhari winning 72% of the votes against Atiku's 28%. It was a particularly dismal showing for Atiku as this was his "Home Region", he hails from Adamawa state a state he barely secured victory in with 50.5% of the votes.

North West: By far the largest voting Bloc in the nation a total of 7,439,087 were registered in 2019 in which Buhari again confidently won with 74% of the votes in comparison to Atiku's 26%.

North Central: A zone I dub the "King Maker" region, its diverse ethnic groups and religious fluidity makes the regions very unpredictable to call and who ever carries this region usually emerges victorious. With a total of 4,100,106 registered Buhari again won this region with 56% of the Votes to Atiku's 43%.

South East: Coming in at just 2,117,100 registered votes Atiku performed incredibly well in this zone with 80% of the ballots going his way to Buhari's abysmal 19%.

South West: Another hotly contested region of the election Buhari carried 52% of the 3,937,559 votes with Atiku carrying 45%. Even though this Zone was touted as an APC bastion the votes suggested otherwise.

South South: A zone who's voting patterns closely mirrors that of the SE, 3,305,754 votes were cast here with Atiku securing a very impressive 68% of the vote against Buhari’s 32%.

Conclusions that can be drawn from the 2019 Election as it relates to its 2023 sequel are as follows; Atiku for a man that has competed in numerous elections through out the last 3 decades and has held the 2nd highest office in the land remains a peripheral player. He barely won his Home State and was resoundingly crushed by another Northerner and Muslim in his home North East Zone. Even if he wins his state and zone this time round will he be able to stave of Rabiu Kwankwaso from eating a significant chunk of those votes?

In the Northwest were Kwankwaso is from and extremely popular by all accounts. I do not expect any of the other to have a significant share of the votes. The North central is almost impossible to predict. Atiku scored 43% of the vote last time round but I expect Obi and Tinubu to have a large say in this Zone as well.

It’s safe to say that the huge and overwhelming Atiku victories in the South East and South South will all but disappear with Peter Obi in the field. I would be shocked if Obi does not register a 90% tally in these zones. The South West I believe will go to Tinubu but not to the extent he is banking on the PDP party apparatus is strong here and with the amount of non-indigenous ethnic immigrants in this zone I expect Kwankwaso and Obi to have a share in the voting pie as well.
So last last we can try and make predictions, therefore I have assigned percentages of votes to all contestants for each zone (See 2nd table).

Analysis ooo...

What factor were used before coming at forecasted conclusion?

l69l:
What factor were used before coming at forecasted conclusion?

2019 Election Results and voting Numbers. and Tribal Sentimentality of Nigerian Politics. Its a rough analysis but still a good mental exercise.

Atiku will scrape the NE

Rabiu will dominate the NW

NC will slimly go to Obi

SW will likely go to Tinubu but not without significant gain by obi especially if this Muslim-Muslim ticket isnt resolved.

SE SS to go to Obi without much hassle.


Triggering a run-off between Obi and Kwankwaso.

The End!

This is most funniest thing I ever read on internet

Desperado14:


2019 Election Results and voting Numbers. and Tribal Sentimentality of Nigerian Politics. Its a rough analysis but still a good mental exercise.

using old figure for new election when collection of PVC is on the rise.

It is 50% accurate. But you are right in some things though.
I will drop my analysis soonest.
You scored Tinubu too low.
If he(Tinubu)picks a Muslim (prominent) one he will definitely score over 17% from my analysis(in the north).
Secondly obi won't get over 90% from the SS & SE, but it is above 40%(at most 42%).

haffaze777:
This is most funniest thing I ever read on internet

Haffeze

Is this funnier than your own prediction?

[b]As we all know that 2023 general election is just some month from now,these are the things that will happen before,during and after election.

1 Tinubu will pick Northern Muslim vice and it will generate alot of noise on all social media

2 Atiku will pick his vice from south and ohaneze ndigbo will spit fire and later atikulate

3 Peter Obi will choose his vipe from North, probably a Muslim North

4 majority of Yorubas will be rooting for Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu

5 minority of Igbo will be rooting for Peter Gregory Obi

6 Majority of Igbo will vote Atiku

7 Simeon ekpa will announce sit at home during campaign and election day

8 some people will die from innocent gun carrying angel unknown gun men

9 ipob sympathizer on Nairaland will blame Tinubu for it,that he's scared of Peter Obi and he's the one sponsor unknown gun men they've been hailing since 1889bc era

10 Tinubu will defeat Atiku(note Peter Obi is not in equation at all because he will come distance 4th behind sowore).

11 cry of rigging will rent social media place for some month

12 some people will come with another conspiracy theory of how Fulani cabal will use supreme Court to deal with Tinubu

13 some people will finally go back to their anthem of Biafra or death.


This thread is not for troll please.[/b]

You didn't factor theDatti effect in Kaduna ,nice analysis

JoeNL22:
It is 50% accurate. But you right in some things though.
I will drop my analysis soonest

What am I wrong in? Lets discuss

I'm not saying I am right but I want to know where I am wrong

Desperado14:


What am I wrong in? Lets discuss

I'm not saying I am right but I want to know where I am wrong

.
The 90% for obi won't happen

8 months is a very long time.

JoeNL22:
.
The 90% for obi won't happen

You cant just say something like that and not give reasonings.

I called 90% in the SE and SS because Atiku a Northerner and Muslim registered 80%! in the SE in the last election so what more of Obi? I can easily see Obi carrying in the 90th percentile in these two regions all things being equal.

Tinubu/APC 55%
Atiku/PDP 30%
Kwankwaso/NNPP 5%
Peter Obi/Labour 5%
Others 5%.

Save this and tag me after election.

JoeNL22:
It is 50% accurate. But you right in some things though.
I will drop my analysis soonest.
You scored Tinubu too low.
If he(Tinubu)picks a Muslim (prominent) one he will definitely score over 17% from my analysis(in the north).
Secondly obi won't get over 90% from the SS & SE, but it is above 40%(at most 42%).

>

muykem:
Tinubu/APC 55%
Atiku/PDP 30%
Kwankwaso/NNPP 5%
Peter Obi/Labour 5%
Others 5%.

Save this and tag me after election.

No
It is Tinubu 100%
Others 0%

Desperado14:


What am I wrong in? Lets discuss

I'm not saying I am right but I want to know where I am wrong

My analysis is based on the voting power and strength of each region. The North-West and North-East have a voting power/ strength of x2. Therefore my analysis goes beyond 6 geo-political zones rather we have 8 voting zones based on the voting strength of Nigeria.
P.s If Tinubu picks a Muslim the analysis goes thus....

North west and North east X2.
Atiku- 33%(66)
Kwankasio- 33%(66)
Tinubu- 33%(66)
Obi- 1%(2)

North Central
Tinubu- 17%
Atiku- 41%
obi- 41%
Kwankasio- 1%

South west
Tinubu- 17%
Atiku- 41.5%
Obi- 41.5%

South east
Atiku- 41%
Obi- 42%
Tinubu-17%

South south
Atiku- 41.5%
Obi- 41.5%
Tinubu- 17%

Average % (divided the total % by 8 not 6, I repeat not 6)
Atiku- 29%
Tinubu- 17%
Obi- 21%
Kwankasio- 9%

That is why it pains me that kwankasio and obi are not running together.
Atiku knows he will probably win the elections, therefore he does not need a strong candidate like Wike as his running mate.

All those people thinking obi and kwankasio will divided Atiku votes are just wasting their time. It is Tinubu's votes that is been divided.

Something is telling me that kwankasio has been paid by some people to not allow the partnership with obi to come to light. Maybe its Atiku(he has the billions to offer kwankasio). Maybe Atiku has settled with kwankasio before picking Okowa, because as it stands, Atiku is just too relaxed for my liking. Truly information is power. Atiku truly knows something we don't!.

Vote buying will play a big role in 2023 election. I will not be suprise if APC carry the day. Why??
1. Nigerian doest believed in politician integrity because of Baba Buhari failure.
2. APC still has the largest war chest
3. PDP has slip into pieces. Atiku camp/wike camp/Peter Obi camp

Desperado14:


You cant just say something like that and not give reasonings.

I called 90% in the SE and SS because Atiku a Northerner and Muslim registered 80%! in the SE in the last election so what more of Obi? I can easily see Obi carrying in the 90th percentile in these two regions all things being equal.

.
It won't work for 2 reasons.
1. There is political apathy in the SE. alot of individuals are not interested in Nigeria talkless of peter obi, that is why Atiku picked is running mate from the SS and not SE.
2. There is disunity among the upper class in the south east who thinks peter obi is just wasting his time. And some people will look at Anambra as a case study of what he has done. And alot of people don't like the few things he did there. At least Tinubu did somethings in Lagos and southwest which made him very very influential. But none has been reflected by obi. Hence. "A house that is divided can never stand"

PaChukwudi44:

No
It is Tinubu 100%
Others 0%

seyidboy:
Vote buying will play a big role in 2023 election. I will not be suprise if APC carry the day. Why??
1. Nigerian doest believed in politician integrity because of Baba Buhari failure.
2. APC still has the largest war chest
3. PDP has slip into pieces. Atiku camp/wike camp/Peter Obi camp

This time is different.
Because people will collect the money and vote another person. They might even expose them

JoeNL22:

My analysis is based on the voting power and strength of each region. The North-West and North-East have a voting power/ strength of x2. Therefore my analysis goes beyond 6 geo-political zones rather we have 8 voting zones based on the voting strength of Nigeria.
P.s If Tinubu picks a Muslim the analysis goes thus....

North west and North east X2.
Atiku- 33%(66)
Kwankasio- 33%(66)
Tinubu- 33%(66)
Obi- 1%(2)

North Central
Tinubu- 17%
Atiku- 41%
obi- 41%
Kwankasio- 1%

South west
Tinubu- 17%
Atiku- 41.5%
Obi- 41.5%

South east
Atiku- 41%
Obi- 42%
Tinubu-17%

South south
Atiku- 41.5%
Obi- 41.5%
Tinubu- 17%

Average % (divided the total % by 8 not 6, I repeat not 6)
Atiku- 29%
Tinubu- 17%
Obi- 21%
Kwankasio- 9%

That is why it pains me that kwankasio and obi are not running together.
Atiku knows he will probably win the elections, therefore he does not need a strong candidate like Wike as his running mate.

All those people thinking obi and kwankasio will divided Atiku votes are just wasting their time. It is Tinubu's votes that is been divided.

Something is telling me that kwankasio has been paid by some people to not allow the partnership with obi to come to light. Maybe its Atiku(he has the billions to offer kwankasio). Maybe Atiku has settled with kwankasio before picking Okowa, because as it stands, Atiku is just too relaxed for my liking. Truly information is power. Atiku truly knows something we don't!.

Interesting but I will say from the onset that the Voting Power of the Northeast is not that much greater than the NC and SW and you giving it a double weighting is wrong.

Another thing, you really expect that the Igbo will only give Obi 42%? and give 41% to Atiku? How? Why? When? Where? After all the Fulani incursion and general insecurity of their homeland. I don't think so, Atiku is seen as a Fulani man the NC and SE will not vote for him having witnessed what the current Fulani president has done or better yet not done to combat the incessant killings of indigenes in these areas by Fulani Herdsmen.

The NC SS and SE will most likely go to Obi

But Thanks for sharing sha.

Desperado14:


Haffeze

Is this funnier than your own prediction?

[b]As we all know that 2023 general election is just some month from now,these are the things that will happen before,during and after election.

1 Tinubu will pick Northern Muslim vice and it will generate alot of noise on all social media

2 Atiku will pick his vice from south and ohaneze ndigbo will spit fire and later atikulate

3 Peter Obi will choose his vipe from North, probably a Muslim North

4 majority of Yorubas will be rooting for Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu

5 minority of Igbo will be rooting for Peter Gregory Obi

6 Majority of Igbo will vote Atiku

7 Simeon ekpa will announce sit at home during campaign and election day

8 some people will die from innocent gun carrying angel unknown gun men

9 ipob sympathizer on Nairaland will blame Tinubu for it,that he's scared of Peter Obi and he's the one sponsor unknown gun men they've been hailing since 1889bc era

10 Tinubu will defeat Atiku(note Peter Obi is not in equation at all because he will come distance 4th behind sowore).

11 cry of rigging will rent social media place for some month

12 some people will come with another conspiracy theory of how Fulani cabal will use supreme Court to deal with Tinubu

13 some people will finally go back to their anthem of Biafra or death.


This thread is not for troll please.[/b]

Let's wait till next year to see which is funny

Desperado14:


What am I wrong in? Lets discuss

I'm not saying I am right but I want to know where I am wrong

If Tinubu picks a Christian.

North west and North east x2.
Atiku- 41%(82)
Kwankasio- 41%(82)
Tinubu- 17%(34)
Obi- 1%(2)

North Central
Tinubu- 33%
Atiku- 33%
obi- 33%
Kwankasio- 1%

South west
Tinubu- 34%
Atiku- 33%
Obi- 33%

South east
Atiku- 41%
Obi- 42%
Tinubu- 17%

South south
Atiku- 41.5%
Obi- 41.5%
Tinubu- 17%

Total average %(add all the % and divide by 8, I repeat by 8 )
Atiku- 29%
Tinubu- 17%
Obi- 19%
Kwankasio- 11%

Based on my analysis.

Obi and kwankasio will win the elections hands down.
But forces to be will not allow that to happen.
It is well

Desperado14:


What am I wrong in? Lets discuss

I'm not saying I am right but I want to know where I am wrong

To say Kwakwanso will come 2nd in 2023 after Obi is the most hilarious analysis I have seen so far on Nairaland

Agbado will win SW with a slim margin

Desperado14:



Interesting but I will say from the onset that the Voting Power of the Northeast is not that much greater than the NC and SW and you giving it a double weighting is wrong.

Another thing, you really expect that the Igbo will only give Obi 42%? and give 41% to Atiku? How? Why? When? Where? After all the Fulani incursion and general insecurity of their homeland. I don't think so, Atiku is seen as a Fulani man the NC and SE will not vote for him having witnessed what the current Fulani president has done or better yet not done to combat the incessant killings of indigenes in these areas by Fulani Herdsmen.

The NC SS and SE will most likely go to Obi

But Thanks for sharing sha.

Go and check history.
Anybody that wins Kano, Kaduna, Kastina, kebbi and Lagos has never lost the elections.
Therefore the north voting power of x2 is well justified. It is not anybody's fault. It is how the Nigerian politcal system is been structured.

The 42% for obi is highly justified, he can't win the SE OR SS, talkless of a land slide because of the disunity among the igbos and the political apathy that will occur during that day). And from your analysis of 2019 elections, it not possible for someone to go from 80-90% to just 10-20%. Its very rare. And when giving obi and Atiku their %, I factored their political apathy of the SE & SS. The reason why obi might not win the elections is because the south east will not come out en mass to vote for obi.

Lastly the NC(middle belt) will go where the SE and SS will go. Hence we won't see a different result from the north central.
I know this analysis is very annoying, but this analysis is a reflection of the perception of Nigeria and not the predictions that might occur.
Although we do agree on one thing. Tinubu won't the elections, hence your analysis is quite accurate. Kudos

JoeNL22:
.
It won't work for 2 reasons.
1. There is political apathy in the SE. alot of individuals are not interested in Nigeria talkless of peter obi, that is why Atiku picked is running mate from the SS and not SE.
2. There is disunity among the upper class in the south east who thinks peter obi is just wasting his time. And some people will look at Anambra as a case study of what he has done. And alot of people don't like the few things he did there. At least Tinubu did somethings in Lagos and southwest which made him very very influential. But none has been reflected by obi. Hence. "A house that is divided can never stand"

You are wrong about Political apathy in the east. Lets company PVC collection in 5 western states (excluding Lagos) and the 5 eastern states
Western states Eastern states
Oyo 2,176,352 Abia 1,729,943
Ogun 1,694,867 Anambra 2, 071,714
Ondo 1,478,460 Enugu 1,787,537
Osun 1,266,587 Ebonyi 1,229,048
Ekiti 666,591 Imo 1,702,178

Total 7,282,857 Total 8,590,420
I did not count Lagos because it's hard to figure out what percentage of Lagos is Yoruba or Igbo. From the data, you see that SE is leading by over 1.3 million collected PVCs

Addme:

To say Kwakwanso will come 2nd in 2023 after Obi is the most hilarious analysis I have seen so far on Nairaland

Lol very true. His influence does not supersedes the north. So I wonder how he(kwankwanso) will win the elections

tctrills:

You are wrong about Political apathy in the east. Lets company PVC collection in 5 western states (excluding Lagos) and the 5 eastern states
Western states Eastern states
Oyo 2,176,352 Abia 1,729,943
Ogun 1,694,867 Anambra 2, 071,714
Ondo 1,478,460 Enugu 1,787,537
Osun 1,266,587 Ebonyi 1,229,048
Ekiti 666,591 Imo 1,702,178

Total 7,282,857 Total 8,590,420
I did not count Lagos because it's hard to figure out what percentage of Lagos is Yoruba or Igbo. From the data, you see that SE is leading by over 1.3 million collected PVCs

Collecting PVCs don't really matter.
Will they come out and vote?. And mind you!, they might be a sit-at-home order come election day. And who wants to be killed by unknown gun men

JoeNL22:


If Tinubu picks a Christian.

North west and North east x2.
Atiku- 41%(82)
Kwankasio- 41%(82)
Tinubu- 17%(34)
Obi- 1%(2)

North Central
Tinubu- 33%
Atiku- 33%
obi- 33%
Kwankasio- 1%

South west
Tinubu- 34%
Atiku- 33%
Obi- 33%

South east
Atiku- 41%
Obi- 42%
Tinubu- 17%

South south
Atiku- 41.5%
Obi- 41.5%
Tinubu- 17%

Total average %(add all the % and divide by 8, I repeat by 8 )
Atiku- 29%
Tinubu- 17%
Obi- 19%
Kwankasio- 11%

Based on my analysis.

Obi and kwankasio will win the elections hands down.
But forces to be will not allow that to happen.
It is well

What nonsense prediction is this? How can obi have the same vote as tinubu in sw? With a Muslim Muslim,tinubu will win the north...

JoeNL22:

Lol very true. His influence does not supersedes the north. So I wonder how he(kwankwanso) will win the elections

But I did not assign Kwankwaso high ratings in anywhere but the north, see my table again.
I gave him 30% in the NE

75% in NW

and in the other zones he doesn't go any higher than 12.5%. Its just that the North West is so populous that it compensates for his low score in the other zones.