JoeNL22:


Go and check history.
Anybody that wins Kano, Kaduna, Kastina, kebbi and Lagos has never lost the elections.
Therefore the north voting power of x2 is well justified. It is not anybody's fault. It is how the Nigerian politcal system is been structured.

The 42% for obi is highly justified, he can't win the SE OR SS, talkless of a land slide because of the disunity among the igbos and the political apathy that will occur during that day). And from your analysis of 2019 elections, it not possible for someone to go from 80-90% to just 10-20%. Its very rare. And when giving obi and Atiku their %, I factored their political apathy of the SE & SS. The reason why obi might not win the elections is because the south east will not come out en mass to vote for obi.

Lastly the NC(middle belt) will go where the SE and SS will go. Hence we won't see a different result from the north central.
I know this analysis is very annoying, but this analysis is a reflection of the perception of Nigeria and not the predictions that might occur.
Although we do agree on one thing. Tinubu won't the elections, hence your analysis is quite accurate. Kudos

Tinubu will actually win.buhari before 2015 won the KKK states and lost.since 2015,nc always vote the north

Desperado14:


What am I wrong in? Lets discuss

I'm not saying I am right but I want to know where I am wrong

Your analysis is contradictory.you analysed well but failed with your final results.your analysis of the regions shows a tinubu win...atiku has been losing his region massively,why do you think he will win? Do you realize that nnpp is weak beyond kano and jigawa? Obi will win the se but not more than 70%.ss is tight but will be won by obi or atiku.sw is ok.nc is between obi and tinubu...the truth is that votes are determined by party structure so the party that is strongest in nw,ne,sw and nc will win

garfield1:


What nonsense prediction is this? How can obi have the same vote as tinubu in sw? With a Muslim Muslim,tinubu will win the north...

So where will you throw Atiku?

garfield1:


Your analysis is contradictory.you analysed well but failed with your final results.your analysis of the regions shows a tinubu win...atiku has been losing his region massively,why do you think he will win? Do you realize that nnpp is weak beyond kano and jigawa? Obi will win the se but not more than 70%.ss is tight but will be won by obi or atiku.sw is ok.nc is between obi and tinubu...the truth is that votes are determined by party structure so the party that is strongest in nw,ne,sw and nc will win

Well in 2019 Atiku was in direct competition in the North East with a Very Popular Norther Fulani man in the form of Buhari. Like people have mentioned already the only other Northerner in this race is not popular beyond his zone in Kano and the Northwest.

Tinubu is between a rock and a hard place. if he chooses a Muslim as his VP, he will pick up some votes in the north which will further dilute Atiku and Kwankwaso's stake there, But he will lose his region or at best share it with Obi. If he picks a Christian he will hold his zone and nibble away at Obi in the NC and SS in particular.

But all in all this 4 horse premier league race is the best thing that has happened to Nigerian Democracy since Abacha slumped over!

JoeNL22:

So where will you throw Atiku?

NE. Atiku 50% Tinubu 35% Kwankwaso 10% Obi 5%
NW Tinubu 35% Atiku 35% Kwankwaso 25% Obi 5%
NC Tinubu 40% Atiku 35% Kwankwaso 10% Obi 15%
SE Tinubu 5% Atiku 30% Obi 65% Kwankwaso 0%
SS Atiku 40% Obi 30% Tinubu 25% Kwankwaso 5%
SW Tinubu 60% Atiku 20% Obi 15% Kwankwaso 5%

Desperado14:


Well in 2019 Atiku was in direct competition in the North East with a Very Popular Norther Fulani man in the form of Buhari. Like people have mentioned already the only other Northerner in this race is not popular beyond his zone in Kano and the Northwest.

Tinubu is between a rock and a hard place. if he chooses a Muslim as his VP, he will pick up some votes in the north which will further dilute Atiku and Kwankwaso's stake there, But he will lose his region or at best share it with Obi. If he picks a Christian he will hold his zone and nibble away at Obi in the NC and SS in particular.

But all in all this 4 horse premier league race is the best thing that has happened to Nigerian Democracy since Abacha slumped over!

There is no permutation where Tinubu will lose the SW regardless of who he picks.

garfield1:


Your analysis is contradictory.you analysed well but failed with your final results.your analysis of the regions shows a tinubu win...atiku has been losing his region massively,why do you think he will win? Do you realize that nnpp is weak beyond kano and jigawa? Obi will win the se but not more than 70%.ss is tight but will be won by obi or atiku.sw is ok.nc is between obi and tinubu...the truth is that votes are determined by party structure so the party that is strongest in nw,ne,sw and nc will win

This party structure you people keep talking about. Did Jonathan not have a party structure? Or did Atiku?.
Yet they lost. It is not about party structure.
Atiku had buhari to contend with, hence the reasons why he lost. But the alpha(Buhari) has gone. All man for himself. The throne is vacant and the crown is empty, therefore let the best man win. Secondly do you think the North will vote a minority Muslim from the south over a core Muslim from the North?. As obi movement is to the south, so as kwankwanso is to the north. I can guarantee you obi can't even get 50% from the SE. Atiku, obi and Tinubu will share NC

raumdeuter:


NE. Atiku 50% Tinubu 35% Kwankwaso 10% Obi 5%
NW Tinubu 35% Atiku 35% Kwankwaso 25% Obi 5%
NC Tinubu 45% Atiku 35% Kwankwaso 10% Obi 10%
SE Tinubu 5% Atiku 30% Obi 65% Kwankwaso 0%
SS Atiku 40% Obi 30% Tinubu 25% Kwankwaso 5%
SW Tinubu 60% Atiku 20% Obi 15% Kwankwaso 5%

Lol @ Tinubu winning the NC and winning 30% in the SS.

FYI if Peter scores below 85% in the SW,he would have failed

PaChukwudi44:

Lol @ Tinubu winning the NC and winning 30% in the SS.

FYI if Peter scores below 85% in the SW,he would have failed

85% for Peter is low. 1million percent will be closer

Tinubu will win Kwara and Kogi easily. And he has the advantage in Niger and Nasarawa

garfield1:


Tinubu will actually win.buhari before 2015 won the KKK states and lost.since 2015,nc always vote the north

P.s read my comments well. I mentioned 5 states and not 3. Did he(Buhari) win lagos?

PaChukwudi44:

Lol @ Tinubu winning the NC and winning 30% in the SS.

FYI if Peter scores below 85% in the SW,he would have failed

This is the same way you were sure Saraki would win in 2019
Gbaja will never become speaker and your numerous failed predictions

JoeNL22:

P.s read my comments well. I mentioned 5 states and not 3. Did he(Buhari) win lagos?

Yes

JoeNL22:


This party structure you people keep talking about. Did Jonathan not have a party structure? Or did Atiku?.
Yet they lost. It is not about party structure.
I gave 2 types of analysis based on the influence of Tinubu so where is the contradiction?
Atiku had buhari to contend with, hence the reasons why he lost. But the alpha(Buhari) has gone. All man for himself. The throne is vacant and the crown is empty, therefore let the best man win. Secondly do you think the North will vote a minority Muslim from the south over a core Muslim from the North?. As obi movement is to the south, so as kwankwanso is to the north. I can guarantee you obi can't even get 50% from the SE. Atiku, obi and Tinubu will share NC

JoelN I will bring this comment up after the results are announce, everything you say is plausible but this one I cant help but LOL. Cmon Haba

JoeNL22:


This party structure you people keep talking about. Did Jonathan not have a party structure? Or did Atiku?.
Yet they lost. It is not about party structure.
I gave 2 types of analysis based on the influence of Tinubu so where is the contradiction?
Atiku had buhari to contend with, hence the reasons why he lost. But the alpha(Buhari) has gone. All man for himself. The throne is vacant and the crown is empty, therefore let the best man win. Secondly do you think the North will vote a minority Muslim from the south over a core Muslim from the North?. As obi movement is to the south, so as kwankwanso is to the north. I can guarantee you obi can't even get 50% from the SE. Atiku, obi and Tinubu will share NC

In the absence of the alpha,the strongest man gets the advantage and that is tinubu.kwankwaso is loved but not beyond parts of nw and his party is weak.gej lost because pdp was weakened by massive defections plus internal sabotage.

raumdeuter:


NE. Atiku 50% Tinubu 35% Kwankwaso 10% Obi 5%
NW Tinubu 35% Atiku 35% Kwankwaso 25% Obi 5%
NC Tinubu 40% Atiku 35% Kwankwaso 10% Obi 15%
SE Tinubu 5% Atiku 30% Obi 65% Kwankwaso 0%
SS Atiku 40% Obi 30% Tinubu 25% Kwankwaso 5%
SW Tinubu 60% Atiku 20% Obi 15% Kwankwaso 5%

Tinubu's influence is what will determine the elections results. Tinubu votes will be reflected based on his running mate(Christian or Muslim). And not him per se

garfield1:


In the absence of the alpha,the strongest man gets the advantage and that is tinubu.kwankwaso is loved but not beyond parts of nw and his party is weak.gej lost because pdp was weakened by massive defections plus internal sabotage.

Okay.....so Tinubu is the strongest based on what?

Desperado14:


Well in 2019 Atiku was in direct competition in the North East with a Very Popular Norther Fulani man in the form of Buhari. Like people have mentioned already the only other Northerner in this race is not popular beyond his zone in Kano and the Northwest.

Tinubu is between a rock and a hard place. if he chooses a Muslim as his VP, he will pick up some votes in the north which will further dilute Atiku and Kwankwaso's stake there, But he will lose his region or at best share it with Obi. If he picks a Christian he will hold his zone and nibble away at Obi in the NC and SS in particular.

But all in all this 4 horse premier league race is the best thing that has happened to Nigerian Democracy since Abacha slumped over!

Oga no matter what tinubu will win his region.his region is the most liberal region in nigeria.they dont care about religion.do not be deceived by social media noise or new voters.traditional voters won't change their choices much...

Desperado14:


JoelN I will bring this comment up after the results are announce, everything you say is plausible but this one I cant help but LOL. Cmon Haba

Yes.....bring it up. No wahala.

JoeNL22:

Okay.....so Tinubu is the strongest based on what?

Party structure,human resources,federal might,funds,national reach,influence, alignments

JoeNL22:

Tinubu's influence is what will determine the elections results. Tinubu votes will be reflected based on his running mate(Christian or Muslim). And not him per se

It will not be.he picked a Muslim placeholder and there was no noise.most of those criticizing him are obi or atiku fans

JoeNL22:

Tinubu's influence is what will determine the elections results. Tinubu votes will be reflected based on his running mate(Christian or Muslim). And not him per se

Is it not contradictory to say Tinubus votes will be reflected based on his running mate and saying Tinubus influence will determine the vote

Both will determine that's why candidates pick running mates who can help them where they are weak

garfield1:


Oga no matter what tinubu will win his region.his region is the most liberal region in nigeria.they dont care about religion.do not be deceived by social media noise or new voters.traditional voters won't change their choices much...

Point of correction.
They do care. You think the SW like what Tinubu is doing?. We are liberals but not foolish, hence we the Yoruba Christians won't support a Muslim/Muslim ticket.

garfield1:


Oga no matter what tinubu will win his region.his region is the most liberal region in nigeria.they dont care about religion.do not be deceived by social media noise or new voters.traditional voters won't change their choices much...

But do you Agree his margin of victory will be greater if he pick a christian in his region? if he pick a muslim I can he him getting 45% of the vote there.

garfield1:


It will not be.he picked a Muslim placeholder and there was no noise.most of those criticizing him are obi or atiku fans

Most people who will not vote Tinubu based on Moslem Moslem will not vote him even if he uses CAN president as VP

raumdeuter:


NE. Atiku 50% Tinubu 35% Kwankwaso 10% Obi 5%
NW Tinubu 35% Atiku 35% Kwankwaso 25% Obi 5%
NC Tinubu 40% Atiku 35% Kwankwaso 10% Obi 15%
SE Tinubu 5% Atiku 30% Obi 65% Kwankwaso 0%
SS Atiku 40% Obi 30% Tinubu 25% Kwankwaso 5%
SW Tinubu 60% Atiku 20% Obi 15% Kwankwaso 5%

Except tinubu doesnt win yobe and borno,he will win ne.he has the advantage in bauchi and gombe.nnpp might beat PDP in bauchi

garfield1:


Party structure,human resources,federal might,funds,national reach,influence, alignments

So Atiku doesn't have any of these?

JoeNL22:

Point of correction.
They do care. You think the SW like what Tinubu is doing?. We are liberals but not foolish, hence we the Yoruba Christians won't support a Muslim/Muslim ticket.

So who will these Yoruba Christians vote? A Fulani Moslem or Obi?

So Yoruba Christians will hate Tinubu a Yoruba moslem and vote Atiku Kwankwaso who are Fulani moslems or vote Obi?

It's like saying pagans in SE will not vote Obi because of something and go vote for Atiku

JoeNL22:

So where will you throw Atiku?

They dont like atiku or pdp.a Muslim vp will give tinubu a bigger edge

garfield1:


Except tinubu doesnt win yobe and borno,he will win ne.he has the advantage in bauchi and gombe.nnpp might beat PDP in bauchi

I expect Atiku to win Adamawa and Taraba easily. Have the edge in Gombe

Tinubu wins Borno and Yobe
Bauchi is anyone's free between Atiku Tinubu and Kwankwaso

JoeNL22:

So Atiku doesn't have any of these?

His party is not as strong as apc,not as rich, doesnt have as much human personnel.there are many states pdp is very weak. Look at the men following tinubu and compare them to atiku

garfield1:


They dont like atiku or pdp.a Muslim vp will give tinubu a bigger edge

So they like Tinubu abi?.

Desperado14:


What am I wrong in? Lets discuss

I'm not saying I am right but I want to know where I am wrong

Tinubu is definitely getting more votes in the NE/NW. He will take a reasonable chunk from what you gave to Atiku and Kwankwaso.

Obi will do better than the 1% you gave him in the NE/NW. He may be able to do 10% or more. Especially considering OBJs decision to galvanize support for PO among the old generals and the old school leaders of thought there. They also have a reasonable size of educated youths who may lean towards a datti.

Obi will do about 90% in the east, and if discussions with Wike, as well as the inroads made into Akwaibom, Cross, and Bayelsa, are positive, maybe 60% in the SS region. Edo and Delta are the only very likely ones for Obi at the moment.

Still very early to call. But you have done well.