MikeofAfrica:

I support Peter Obi and will vote for him but l know that Tinubu will win the 2023 election. Your prediction is not far from the reality on ground in the north.
States like Borno, Yobe, Zamfara, Kebbi, and Katsina are presently on lockdown for APC. They will get at least 80% votes in each of these States. APC will also win Kaduna, Jigawa and Gombe with smaller margins. Kwankwanso is a big threat in Kano. Atiku will win Sokoto, Adamawa, Bauchi and Taraba.
It will be very difficult for Obi to win any state in NW/ NE. The people of the two regions are the reason why we are in Buhari mess and they will put us in a bigger mess in 2023.

You are right except atiku will lose bauchi and maybe win gombe

Either you like it or not everyone knows his /her candidate come 2023 . Shun politics of hatred, envy, jealous and bitterness am talking to all internet bandits and terrorist who want to kill their selves because they don’t want to see opposition, what then is the beauty of democracy? . Better face your life and engage in meaningful and fruitful things , if you have a preferred candidate campaign and canvass vote for your candidate

garfield1:


A divided team cannot win a united team

Yea tell that to the APC chairman who announced Lawan as consensus candidate and senatte president Lawan who lost his senatorial bid as a result of Tinubu's desperation.

Also tell this statement to Christian members of the APC after Tinubu must have unveiled his muslim vp.

garfield1:


You dont get it.all you need to do is to match the numbers in the bvas to the total votes.

You are the one that don't get it, only voters accredited by BVAS can vote and the device requires 4G to work optimally.

MTN the largest network provider in Nigeria has 60% 4G penetration.

A lot people will be disenfranchised in the North.

Also, the main election rigging don't happen in the polling unit, because of the open counting system and the fact that most of the voters know themselves.

The main rigging happens during collations. With electronic transmission, voting padding will be eliminated as the results are transmitted from the polling unit together with scanned copy of the signed results.

If you have ever voted in Nigeria elections, you will know that it's difficult to tamper with polling unit results.

Everyone will be there during sorting and voters count with the electoral officers during counting.

Everyone watches as they write the result and at the end, the agents will sign.

With BVAS, the polling officers will transmit results electronically, together with a scanned copy of the result.

So how you want take rig am.

If Buhari was on the ballot, he will never sign the electoral law, just as he did in 2018

sotall:


Yea tell that to the APC chairman who announced Lawan as consensus candidate and senatte president Lawan who lost his senatorial bid as a result of Tinubu's desperation.

Also tell this statement to Christian members of the APC after Tinubu must have unveiled his muslim vp.

Gbam

casualobserver:

let him win his SE states first, if he manages that he would have done well!!!

It's already in the bag

VoteObi2023:

You are the one that don't get it, only voters accredited by BVAS can vote and the device requires 4G to work optimally.

MTN the largest network provider in Nigeria has 60% 4G penetration.

A lot people will be disenfranchised in the North.

Also, the main election rigging don't happen in the polling unit, because of the open counting system and the fact that most of the voters know themselves.

The main rigging happens during collations. With electronic transmission, voting padding will be eliminated as the results are transmitted from the polling unit together with scanned copy of the signed results.

My friend I do not understand BVAS but common sense dictates that INEC cannot deploy a system that disenfranchises voters. If there are areas where BVAS does not work, an alternative must exist by law. you cannot say because there is no signal in my area I cannot vote

garfield1:
Adamawa state
Apc 250,000
Pdp 500,000
Lp 100,000
Nnpp 50,000

Taraba
Apc 200,000
Pdp 300,000
Lp 100,000
Nnpp 50,099

Gombe
Apc 200,000
Pdp 200,000
Lp 50,000
Nnpp 80,000

Bauchi
Apc 450,000
Pdp 350,000
Nnpp 400,000
Lp 20,000

Yobe
Apc 500,000
Pdp 100,000
Lp 10,000
Nnpp 50,000

Borno
Apc 1.2 million
Pdp 100,000
Lp 20,000
Nnpp 50,000


Mynd44
Lalasticlala
Kyase
Kahal
Frowland
Majamatic
Jrusky
Jaxxy
Coolambience
Sonoyom
Casualobserver
Famology
Afamed
Helinues
Yarimo
Noethnicity
Penguin2
Okoroawusa
Cajal
Quota system
Arrewanorth

lol

VoteObi2023:

It's already in the bag

I won’t argue. But to expect him to win any state outside the the SE is delusional. Maybe at the next cycle but not 2023.

casualobserver:



My friend I do not understand BVAS but common sense dictates that INEC cannot deploy a system that disenfranchises voters. If there are areas where BVAS does not work, an alternative must exist by law. you cannot say because there is no signal in my area I cannot vote

Accreditation is only via BVAS and it uses 4G network. The device transmits automatically the number of accredited votes.

If you are not accredited, go home. That the new guideline.

VoteObi2023:

Accreditation is only via BVAS and it uses 4G network. The device transmits automatically the number of accredited votes.

If you are not accredited, go home. That the new guideline.

I need to research this because it makes no sense!

casualobserver:


I won’t argue. But to expect him to win any state outside the the SE is delusional. Maybe at the next cycle but not 2023.

SE

SS

NC

North Christian Votes, including Southerner Kaduna

Already in the bag. With the BVAS, Kano and Katsina will struggle to release their dubious 2m votes.

VoteObi2023:

SE

SS

NC

North Christian Votes, including Southerner Kaduna

Already in the bag. With the BVAS, Kano and Katsina will struggle to release their dubious 2m votes.

A lot of Nigerians talk out of hope rather than facts and empirical evidence. You clearly fall into the latter!!!

casualobserver:


I need to research this because it makes no sense!

Check current INEC guideline.

You can learn about the BVAS here

https://dailytrust.com/explainer-what-inecs-bvas-means-and-how-to-minimise-its-failure-during-elections

casualobserver:


A lot of Nigerians talk out of hope rather than facts and empirical evidence. You clearly fall into the latter!!!

Says someone who believes that Tinubu will win with Moslem-Moslem ticket.

Thanks God for BVAS that will stop their rigging.

VoteObi2023:

You are the one that don't get it, only voters accredited by BVAS can vote and the device requires 4G to work optimally.

MTN the largest network provider in Nigeria has 60% 4G penetration.

A lot people will be disenfranchised in the North.

Also, the main election rigging don't happen in the polling unit, because of the open counting system and the fact that most of the voters know themselves.

The main rigging happens during collations. With electronic transmission, voting padding will be eliminated as the results are transmitted from the polling unit together with scanned copy of the signed results.

If you have ever voted in Nigeria elections, you will know that it's difficult to tamper with polling unit results.

Everyone will be there during sorting and voters count with the electoral officers during counting.

Everyone watches as they write the result and at the end, the agents will sign.

With BVAS, the polling officers will transmit results electronically, together with a scanned copy of the result.

So how you want take rig am.

If Buhari was on the ballot, he will never sign the electoral law, just as he did in 2018

It will not be like that in borno and yobe.the place is remote and insecure.apc agents will dominate everywhere and agents will transmit what will favour apc

garfield1:


It will not be like that in borno and yobe.the place is remote and insecure.apc agents will dominate everywhere and agents will transmit what will favour apc

Go and read everything bout BVAS...again.. you guys hoping on winning with rigging,should calm down...with the new electoral act it will not be business as usual

seunmsg:


Lmaooo! Where did you get the above nonsense from? Go and read the law very well. The only result that is recognized is the manual result. The online transmission is just for data collection purposes and has no legal effect on the election result. Not transmitting the result won’t invalidate the manual result sheet.

You are nothing but a collosal disaster and an abyssal failure in all your endeavors on this forum. We all watched and riled in consternation when you began to shamelessly attack anyone who as much as hinted any displeasure at Buhari's many gross incompetences, bigotry and nepotism in this country not too long ago. You made it a personal business to defend the man regardless of any salient and factual conclusion made against him. All of a sudden, you started acting like Buhari is no longer president. You wouldn't even touch any topic pertaining to his maladministration with a long spoon. It's as if Buhari was dead. But then some of us realized that for you, it's not even about the man who sits in the presidency but the continuous perpetuation of APC as the ruling party. The same zest employed by you in defense of Buhari has now been transferred to Tinubu. But it's not about Tinubu. For you, Tinubu can become president, Nigeria continues to burn, as long as it is APC.

This lends credence to the fact you can't be ever trusted. All the things you do on the political section of this forum is a reflection of who you really are in character. A person who should never be followed. A lot of things have been happening in the country of late but your fixation has all been about 2023 election. Everything else is none of your business. A disaster like you should never be taken seriously. Only God knows how you even run a family.

VoteObi2023:

Go read the electoral act and new electoral guidelines.

Votes in a polling unit will be cancelled if the result in the incidence form doesn't match the one transmitted by electronically.

Also, you are disenfranchised if the BVAS fails to accredit you for whatever reason.

Now inconclusive election is based on collected PVC not registered voters

I think youve got it all wrong. BVAS only needs a network to download the polling unit data for voter verification and software updates on to the device, these would clearly have been done before voting. BVAS does not require a network for verification because the data it is veryfying against is already on the device. The only time BVAS requires a network is after voting when it will require a network to transmit the results and the scanned EC8 form.

garfield1:


It will not be like that in borno and yobe.the place is remote and insecure.apc agents will dominate everywhere and agents will transmit what will favour apc

You keep deceiving yourself

BVAS need 4G to work to accredit voters and it transmits the number of accredited voters automatically. Again, polling unit results are nearly accurate.

Even if there are 100 APC members and 10 LP members, the result will still reflect that, because everyone there almost know themselves and are not likely to change the result.

Electoral malpractice at the polling unit is only through inducement.

The main rigging happens in collation centres not polling unit.

It seems you have not voted in Nigeria election before.

If rigging is as simple as you think, SE will be returning millions of votes and nobody will rig pass us because of our bloc votes.

VoteObi2023:

Says someone who believes that Tinubu will win with Moslem-Moslem ticket.

Thanks God for BVAS that will stop their rigging.

The difference between you and I is that there is logic and reason to my assertions and none to yours but blind hope!

Tinubus voters are mainly in the SW and in the North. SE and SS are not voting for him so he is not going to lose any votes there because he chooses a mulsim.

That leaves North and SW.


SW are liberal, (by SW I mean Yorubas) we grew up with muslims, we have family and friends that are muslims, we have hard core catholics/pentecostals married to muslims, religion is and has never been an issue until certain people started to use it for politics, I am a christian!!! He will lose a few votes but not that many. Nobody in the SW is going to withdraw his/her vote against Tinubu because he chose a muslim-muslim and then cast their vote for Atiku . As for those in the SW who will vote Peter OBi, mostly the English speaking youth and some of theeducated elite, they have already made up their minds to vote Peter Obi whether he chooses Muslim or Christian. Also dont get carried away by their presence on Social media, these people are the loudest but they are a minority!!! 80% of the electorate in both the North and the south vote based on criteria different from the English speaking educated/ Twitter elite. if you put together in a crowd all the yorubas supporting peter Obi, I doubt you will fill a 60,0000 stadium!! Dont confuse SW with yorubas, there are many people who live in the SW who arent yorubas, many were never voting for Tinubu to begin with, most are PDP voters who will vote Obi. So no need to appease them!!!

that leaves the North

Tinubu is losing no votes in the North because he chooses a Muslim muslim ticket. If anything he gains votes in the North. He will lose some Northern Christians but he will gain/ retain more Northern muslims that may have ported to Atiku.

Thats how you come to a logical conclusion, not by pipedreams and fantasy!!!

casualobserver:


I think youve got it all wrong. BVAS only needs a network to download the polling unit data for voter verification and software updates on to the device, these would clearly have been done before voting. BVAS does not require a network for verification because the data it is veryfying against is already on the device. The only time BVAS requires a network is after voting when it will require a network to transmit the results and the scanned EC8 form.

If this is true, why is the BVAS recording less than 90% success rate?

The BVAS can verify with internet but to work hitch-free you will need to connect it to a 4G network.

During Anambra election, many of the machines malfunctioned until connected to the internet.

I still stand on my words, with the BVAS, the North will not be able to return their huge numbers again

VoteObi2023:

If this is true, why is the BVAS recording less than 90% success rate?

The BVAS can verify with internet but to work hitch-free you will need to connect it to a 4G network.

During Anambra election, many of the machines malfunctioned until connected to the internet.

I still stand on my words, with the BVAS, the North will not be able to return their huge numbers again

My friend I have told you I don’t know much about BVAS but from what I have read in the last few minutes. Network is not required for verification and voting. A network is only required to download PU data before election and for transmitting.

I am not interested in your words, like I have said previously , you talk more out of hope than (with due respect) facts logic and common sense. I deal in facts and logic. An electoral body cannot deploy a system that disenfranchises voters, common sense would tell anyone with common sense that. It is grounds for cancellation or invalidating an election!!! Giving examples of pilot rollout where teething problems are expected is clutching at straws

casualobserver:



The difference between you and I is that there is logic and reason to my assertions and none to yours but blind hope!

Tinubus voters are mainly in the SW and in the North. SE and SS are not voting for him so he is not going to lose any votes there because he chooses a mulsim.

That leaves North and SW.


SW are liberal, (by SW I mean Yorubas) we grew up with muslims, we have family and friends that are muslims, we have hard core catholics/pentecostals married to muslims, religion is and has never been an issue until certain people started to use it for politics, I am a christian!!! He will lose a few votes but not that many. Nobody in the SW is going to withdraw his/her vote against Tinubu because he chose a muslim-muslim and then cast their vote for Atiku . As for those in the SW who will vote Peter OBi, mostly the English speaking youth and some of theeducated elite, they have already made up their minds to vote Peter Obi whether he chooses Muslim or Christian. Also dont get carried away by their presence on Social media, these people are the loudest but they are a minority!!! 80% of the electorate in both the North and the south vote based on criteria different from the English speaking educated/ Twitter elite. if you put together in a crowd all the yorubas supporting peter Obi, I doubt you will fill a 60,0000 stadium!! Dont confuse SW with yorubas, there are many people who live in the SW who arent yorubas, many were never voting for Tinubu to begin with, most are PDP voters who will vote Obi. So no need to appease them!!!

that leaves the North

Tinubu is losing no votes in the North because he chooses a Muslim muslim ticket. If anything he gains votes in the North. He will lose some Northern Christians but he will gain/ retain more Northern muslims that may have ported to Atiku.

Thats how you come to a logical conclusion, not by pipedreams and fantasy!!!

Wait till he announces his moslem VP first.

If you think a typical Moslem Northerner will vote Tinubu because he chose a Moslem VP over Kwankwanso and Atiku, then it means you have been to the North before.

Again, Moslem NW will never leave Kwankwanso and Atiku to vote for a Moslem VP from NE.

Tinubu has a Christian wife he has refused to convert and this will count.

Most of the Northerners who will vote for Tinubu are those who will still vote for him if he picks a Christian VP.

Tinubu can never win more Moslem votes than Kwankwanso and Atiku. Now with the Moslem-Moslem ticket, he will lose Christian votes in the North.

He will also lose some SW Christian votes.

It's here I always hear religion don't matter in the SW. I live in Lagos and I can tell you it does.

Some Yoruba Christians don't even trust their Moslems 100%

VoteObi2023:

Wait till he announces his moslem VP first.

If you think a typical Moslem Northerner will vote Tinubu because he chose a Moslem VP over Kwankwanso and Atiku, then it means you have been to the North before.

Again, Moslem NW will never leave Kwankwanso and Atiku to vote for a Moslem VP from NE.

Tinubu has a Christian wife he has refused to convert and this will count.

Most of the Northerners who will vote for Tinubu are those who will still vote for him if he picks a Christian VP.

Tinubu can never win more Moslem votes than Kwankwanso and Atiku. Now with the Moslem-Moslem ticket, he will lose Christian votes in the North.

He will also lose some SW Christian votes.

It's here I always hear religion don't matter in the SW. I live in Lagos and I can tell you it does.

Some Yoruba Christians don't even trust their Moslems 100%

It is clear You are not a yoruba man.

casualobserver:


My friend I have told you I don’t know much about BVAS but from what I have read in the last few minutes. Network is not required for verification and voting. A network is only required to download PU data before election and for transmitting.

I am not interested in your words, like I have said previously , you talk more out of hope than (with due respect) facts logic and common sense. I deal in facts and logic. An electoral body cannot deploy a system that disenfranchises voters, common sense would tell anyone with common sense that. It is grounds for cancellation or invalidating an election!!! Giving examples of pilot rollout where teething problems are expected is clutching at straws

You don't know and you are still arguing.

Do you expect INEC to tell you that their machine needs 4G to work properly? You are funny if you expect that.
I
Ifou don't connect that machine to a 4G it will malfunction. If it doesn't malfunction, it will take long to read the cards.

casualobserver:


It is clear You are not a yoruba man.

Of course, it should be clear.

You are only holding your stance and pushing the Tinubu will win in the North narrative because you are a Yoruba man.

If Tinubu VP ticket fails to go to NW, he will lose NW woefully. It it goes to NW, he will lose NE woefully.

VoteObi2023:

You don't know and you are still arguing.

Do you expect INEC to tell you that their machine needs 4G to work properly? You are funny if you expect that.
I
Ifou don't connect that machine to a 4G it will malfunction. If it doesn't malfunction, it will take long to read the cards.

Please talk like you education has taught you how to reason properly. For the umpteenth time, a network is only required to download polling user data, software updates prior to the beginning of voting. Once voting starts, users are verified against data that has already been downloaded on the BVAS. When election is finished, BVAS requires a network to transmit. Is this so difficult for you to process?

casualobserver:



The difference between you and I is that there is logic and reason to my assertions and none to yours but blind hope!

Tinubus voters are mainly in the SW and in the North. SE and SS are not voting for him so he is not going to lose any votes there because he chooses a mulsim.

That leaves North and SW.


SW are liberal, (by SW I mean Yorubas) we grew up with muslims, we have family and friends that are muslims, we have hard core catholics/pentecostals married to muslims, religion is and has never been an issue until certain people started to use it for politics, I am a christian!!! He will lose a few votes but not that many. Nobody in the SW is going to withdraw his/her vote against Tinubu because he chose a muslim-muslim and then cast their vote for Atiku . As for those in the SW who will vote Peter OBi, mostly the English speaking youth and some of theeducated elite, they have already made up their minds to vote Peter Obi whether he chooses Muslim or Christian. Also dont get carried away by their presence on Social media, these people are the loudest but they are a minority!!! 80% of the electorate in both the North and the south vote based on criteria different from the English speaking educated/ Twitter elite. if you put together in a crowd all the yorubas supporting peter Obi, I doubt you will fill a 60,0000 stadium!! Dont confuse SW with yorubas, there are many people who live in the SW who arent yorubas, many were never voting for Tinubu to begin with, most are PDP voters who will vote Obi. So no need to appease them!!!

that leaves the North

Tinubu is losing no votes in the North because he chooses a Muslim muslim ticket. If anything he gains votes in the North. He will lose some Northern Christians but he will gain/ retain more Northern muslims that may have ported to Atiku.

Thats how you come to a logical conclusion, not by pipedreams and fantasy!!!

Why did you exclude the block vote of RCCG,WINNERS CHAPEL, MFM,DEEPER LIFE AND OTHER Huge Christian denominations in the Southwest?

You think they will vote Tinubu after picking a Muslim vp?

VoteObi2023:

Of course, it should be clear.

You are only holding your stance and pushing the Tinubu will win in the North narrative because you are a Yoruba man.

If Tinubu VP ticket fails to go to NW, he will lose NW woefully. It it goes to NW, he will lose NE woefully.

No I am telling you that religion is not and has traditionally never been a divisive issue for us in the SW. There is no family in the SW that doesnt have christians and muslims. I have very close relatives that I didnt even know their father was a muslim till I was a well grown adult, in fact until when he died and they buried him according to muslim rites. i have classmates that are muslim, weve mixed together, drink together, chased women together all our lives in peace until you people brought your religious disharmony. We eat Salah meat together and eat christmas chicken together, infact we yoruba christians ldont mess around with ileya meat....whose house are we going!! You probably can't fathom what i am saying because you are not yoruba.

sotall:


Why did you exclude the block vote of RCCG,WINNERS CHAPEL, MFM,DEEPER LIFE AND OTHER Huge Christian denominations in the Southwest?

You think they will vote Tinubu after picking a Muslim vp?

They are noisemakers, we the SW Christians, we know these pastors for what they are!! Dont try and tell a man about his own household. You are not a Northerner, you are not a yoruba but all I read from you is you trying to talk authoritatively about the habits and mindset of people you do not know based on the mindset of your own people. I know my house and my people better than you.

VoteObi2023:

You keep deceiving yourself

BVAS need 4G to work to accredit voters and it transmits the number of accredited voters automatically. Again, polling unit results are nearly accurate.

Even if there are 100 APC members and 10 LP members, the result will still reflect that, because everyone there almost know themselves and are not likely to change the result.

Electoral malpractice at the polling unit is only through inducement.

The main rigging happens in collation centres not polling unit.

It seems you have not voted in Nigeria election before.

If rigging is as simple as you think, SE will be returning millions of votes and nobody will rig pass us because of our bloc votes.

You are not getting it.Nigeria system is extremely corrupt.nothing is sure, the bvas will disappoint you badly.long before that election, those remote states will work on the bvas and preconfigure everything.everything is planned already to make sure each unit gets at leat 300 accredited voters whether they turnout or not.all pdp and lp agents will be compromised or intimidated.elections are now being rigged at the units no more collation centres... Whether people vote or not, 95% votes will go to apc in any polling units...
As for 4g network, borno recorded over 500,,,000 online registration so leave that side...
Between 1999-2011 when nigeria used manual accreditation, Igbo states were recording millions of votes even more than the north.but with card readers,you guys wrtr exposed and your real figures showed.again,apc and PDP are in almost all parts of Igbo land so you cannot rig easily