The 2023 presidential election is less than seven months away. There are three contenders, even though Peter Obi happens to be largely a pretender in my opinion. Tinubu has chosen Shettima to be his VP candidate, Atiku chose Okowa and Peter chose Yusuf. However, of the trio, Tinubu’s choice is the most controversial as it is a Muslim-Muslim ticket, which is very insensitive to the 100M+ Christian populace. To be honest, this choice increases Tinubu’s probability amongst the Muslim community in Nigeria, especially in the north-west and north-east. This brings me to the topic: Peter Obi cannot win in those regions as they will not vote for a Christian when there are two alternatives where Muslims hold sway. In the north-west, Tinubu has a greater probability of winning there as his combination resonates with the populace. Kwankwaso has said he has no problems with the choice he made but with his platform. This means when push comes to shove, he will step down for Tinubu so that BAT’s chances of winning Kano with a wide margin come to fruition. In the north-east where Shettima and Atiku come from, Peter Obi’s odds further decline as indigenes there will rather their sons than someone else.

In the south-west, Tinubu is expected to win. Don’t allow anyone to deceive you that Tinubu will lose his backyard. Yorubas don’t involve religion during elections as they are roughly divided across three religions amidst themselves. Tinubu is seen as a God figure and when the chips are down, the vast majority will tilt towards voting for the APC. However, there exists a section of Yoruba voters especially the Christians who might not/will not vote for the APC or alternatively abstain from voting due to the insensitivity of Tinubu’s choice considering the wanton killings the Christian community has experienced in Nigeria within the last seven years. The massacre in the Catholic Church at Owo rings a bell. To these people, alternatives exist in Atiku and Peter but here is it: due to what I cannot describe as the rivalry between Igbos and Yorubas, the vast majority of these Yoruba Christians will not vote for an Igbo man. They will/might be shamed, mocked at or derided or whatever, but they won’t vote for Peter Obi and/or rather cast their votes for Atiku. On the other hand, Yoruba Muslims will never vote for an Igbo man, certainly not when an illustrious son of theirs has a strong likelihood of becoming the president.

In the north-central, Tinubu’s prospects are pretty significant as people, especially the Muslims in Kwara will vote for him. The same thing in Nasarrawa, Kogi, and Niger especially as the vast majority of people in IDP camps are Christians. Benue, for instance, has one of the highest concentrations of IDPs thereby making them unqualified to vote. His chances in Plateau and Benue are very low but APC’s structures there can deliver the minimum requirement of 25% to scale through. In the south-south and south-east, Tinubu’s chances are extremely low considering he never campaigned in the south-east and only campaigned in Delta and Cross River states in the south-south during the APC presidential primaries. Effectively, he believes he won’t win in those regions, and rightfully so. In fact, I predict that Tinubu will not campaign during the campaign season in any of the south-eastern states and only in Cross River considering the influence of Okowa in Delta. He might substitute Delta with Akwa Ibom but that is it, just two states in the south-south and none in the south-east. The south-south and south-east together are home to the vast majority of Christians in Nigeria. They will not be receptive to a Muslim-Muslim presidency.

Vote peter obi for president

With this analysis, wherever Tinubu’s chances are higher, Peter Obi’s are lower and vice-versa. However, the issue is: the people who would vote for Peter Obi are folks who have historically voted for the PDP and did vote for Atiku in 2019. This means he (Peter Obi) is not getting fresh voters from groups that did not vote for the PDP in 2015 and 2019. For instance, in 2019, almost a million people in Southern Kaduna voted for the PDP. In 2023, some of those people will vote for the Labour Party further reducing the votes PDP would have garnered. Let’s face it: the Labour Party does not have structures in the hinterlands of the country or die-hard/historical voters.

The same thing applies to the south-east and south-south. In these regions, Peter’s chances are higher but these are people that have consistently and historically voted for the PDP across all electoral positions. For instance, prior to the senatorial elections in 2019, Godswill Akpabio defected to the APC and lost resoundingly to the PDP. Mind you, this was the same position he won with a landslide when he aspired for it in 2015 under the PDP. Why? The voters in his senatorial district voted against him mainly because he defected to the APC. These are core/die-hard PDP supporters. In 2023, these people will not vote for the APC due to its Muslim-Muslim combination but will divide their votes between the Labour Party and the PDP. The inclusion of Peter Obi in the presidential election does more harm than good to the PDP and his ethnic group, ditto ethnic minorities in general. I understand the pain of the south-east that the PDP chose a Fulani northerner as its candidate, but the reality is: an Igbo man cannot be Nigeria’s president in its present state. Kwankwaso echoed it, and I am saying that is the reality. The alternative is to have an Igbo man as the VP and Okowa does this beautifully, something Peter should have been the one had he remained in the PDP.


Again, a vote for Peter Obi and the Labour Party is a vote for Tinubu. Where-ever PDP could have competed greatly with the APC, Labour Party snatches those vital votes, and this affects PDP’s odds while increasing Tinubu’s. Even prominent APC’s supporters have said the same (screenshot attached). Peter Obi cannot win the presidential election, and his inclusion affects PDP’s chances and increases the prospects of having a Muslim-Muslim presidency.


In summary, Peter Gregory Obi should step down for Atiku Abubakar.

Gerrard59:
The 2023 presidential election is less than seven months away. There are three contenders, even though Peter Obi happens to be largely a pretender in my opinion. Tinubu has chosen Shettima to be his VP candidate, Atiku chose Okowa and Peter chose Yusuf. However, of the trio, Tinubu’s choice is the most controversial as it is a Muslim-Muslim ticket, which is very insensitive to the 100M+ Christian populace. To be honest, this choice increases Tinubu’s probability amongst the Muslim community in Nigeria, especially in the north-west and north-east. This brings me to the topic: Peter Obi cannot win in those regions as they will not vote for a Christian when there are two alternatives where Muslims hold sway. In the north-west, Tinubu has a greater probability of winning there as his combination resonates with the populace. Kwankwaso has said he has no problems with the choice he made but with his platform. This means when push comes to shove, he will step down for Tinubu so that BAT’s chances of winning Kano with a wide margin come to fruition. In the north-east where Shettima and Atiku come from, Peter Obi’s odds further decline as indigenes there will rather their sons than someone else.

In the south-west, Tinubu is expected to win. Don’t allow anyone to deceive you that Tinubu will lose his backyard. Yorubas don’t involve religion during elections as they are roughly divided across three religions amidst themselves. Tinubu is seen as a God figure and when the chips are down, the vast majority will tilt towards voting for the APC. However, there exists a section of Yoruba voters especially the Christians who might not/will not vote for the APC or alternatively abstain from voting due to the insensitivity of Tinubu’s choice considering the wanton killings the Christian community has experienced in Nigeria within the last seven years. The massacre in the Catholic Church at Owo rings a bell. To these people, alternatives exist in Atiku and Peter but here is it: due to what I cannot describe as the rivalry between Igbos and Yorubas, the vast majority of these Yoruba Christians will not vote for an Igbo man. They will/might be shamed, mocked at or derided or whatever, but they won’t vote for Peter Obi and/or rather cast their votes for Atiku. On the other hand, Yoruba Muslims will never vote for an Igbo man, certainly not when an illustrious son of theirs has a strong likelihood of becoming the president.

In the north-central, Tinubu’s prospects are pretty significant as people, especially the Muslims in Kwara will vote for him. The same thing in Nasarrawa, Kogi, and Niger especially as the vast majority of people in IDP camps are Christians. Benue, for instance, has one of the highest concentrations of IDPs thereby making them unqualified to vote. His chances in Plateau and Benue are very low but APC’s structures there can deliver the minimum requirement of 25% to scale through. In the south-south and south-east, Tinubu’s chances are extremely low considering he never campaigned in the south-east and only campaigned in Delta and Cross River states in the south-south during the APC presidential primaries. Effectively, he believes he won’t win in those regions, and rightfully so. In fact, I predict that Tinubu will not campaign during the campaign season in any of the south-eastern states and only in Cross River considering the influence of Okowa in Delta. He might substitute Delta with Akwa Ibom but that is it, just two states in the south-south and none in the south-east. The south-south and south-east together are home to the vast majority of Christians in Nigeria. They will not be receptive to a Muslim-Muslim presidency.

why not Atiku to step down for PO since by you, Tinubu will defeat him(Atiku) in the north and kwankwaso will step down for Tinubu instead of Atiku?

Peter Obi just dey waste his time. Igbo can never rule this Country.

I have noticed recently that PDP people have come up with a new strategy of trying to pressure Peter obi for stepping down for Atiku. Guess what guys, this strategy is dead on arrival

mycar:

why not Atiku to step down for PO since by you, Tinubu will defeat him(Atiku) in the north and kwankwaso will step down for Tinubu instead of Atiku?

You Dey mind them? That is now their new strategy. Even if PO steps down, it won’t change anything cos people who are motivated to vote now won’t bother on Election Day.

mycar:

why not Atiku to step down for PO since by you, Tinubu will defeat him(Atiku) in the north and kwankwaso will step down for Tinubu instead of Atiku?

Because Muslims won't vote for a Christian president.

mycar:

why not Atiku to step down for PO since by you, Tinubu will defeat him(Atiku) in the north and kwankwaso will step down for Tinubu instead of Atiku?

This is the argument you Peter Obi's supporters made by demanding Kwankwaso step down for Peter Obi and become PO's VP candidate. I saw that as a joke, which was one.

I have stated reasons geopolitical zone by zone by Peter Obi cannot win but if you believe he can, good for you people. Just don't come complaining when you have a Muslim-Muslim presidency.

Shame shame !!

Gerrard59:


This is the argument you Peter Obi's supporters made by demanding Kwankwaso step down for Peter Obi and become PO's VP candidate. I saw that as a joke, which was one.

I have stated reasons geopolitical zone by zone by Peter Obi cannot win but if you believe he can, good for you people. Just don't come complaining when you have a Muslim-Muslim presidency.

Those that will vote for Atiku too should not complain when we have Muslim Muslim presidency also.

Jking20:


Because Muslims won't vote for a Christian president.

So, it's christians that will vote for Muslim president?

Nigerians will answer with emotions. I don't care . I just pity those who have given birth to Nigerian kids. The kind of suffering that will come in the next 4 years eh

lol

Jking20:


Because Muslims won't vote for a Christian president.

I hear you. Only Christians voted Obasanjo and Jonathan. Muslims ARE notnzs stupid as you think they are.

mycar:

Those that will vote for Atiku too should not complain when we have Muslim Muslim presidency also.

That's not true. Atiku's VP candidate is a Christian. Those who will vote for Atiku have historically voted for the PDP. In my post on Yoruba Christians, he's likely to gain new voters from them (people who voted for the APC because of Yemi Osinbajo). The vast majority of Peter Obi's supporters are people who have always voted for the PDP, no previous voters from previous elections. Peter Obi has lost three geopolitical zones - South West, North West and North East. Technically, he has lost the north central and makes it worse for the PDP to gain votes there.

So, how he's going to win?

An Islamic preacher prior to when Shettima was chosen warned that APC shouldn't choose a Christian VP because if anything happens to Tinubu, the person takes over, and Northern Christians should never become the president. He also said Igbo man should never be allowed to become president. Is that not the reason they ganged up against Jonathan because they saw him as an Igbo man?

So, tell me how on earth is Peter Obi expected to win?

.

[s]

Gerrard59:
The 2023 presidential election is less than seven months away. There are three contenders, even though Peter Obi happens to be largely a pretender in my opinion. Tinubu has chosen Shettima to be his VP candidate, Atiku chose Okowa and Peter chose Yusuf. However, of the trio, Tinubu’s choice is the most controversial as it is a Muslim-Muslim ticket, which is very insensitive to the 100M+ Christian populace. To be honest, this choice increases Tinubu’s probability amongst the Muslim community in Nigeria, especially in the north-west and north-east. This brings me to the topic: Peter Obi cannot win in those regions as they will not vote for a Christian when there are two alternatives where Muslims hold sway. In the north-west, Tinubu has a greater probability of winning there as his combination resonates with the populace. Kwankwaso has said he has no problems with the choice he made but with his platform. This means when push comes to shove, he will step down for Tinubu so that BAT’s chances of winning Kano with a wide margin come to fruition. In the north-east where Shettima and Atiku come from, Peter Obi’s odds further decline as indigenes there will rather their sons than someone else.

In the south-west, Tinubu is expected to win. Don’t allow anyone to deceive you that Tinubu will lose his backyard. Yorubas don’t involve religion during elections as they are roughly divided across three religions amidst themselves. Tinubu is seen as a God figure and when the chips are down, the vast majority will tilt towards voting for the APC. However, there exists a section of Yoruba voters especially the Christians who might not/will not vote for the APC or alternatively abstain from voting due to the insensitivity of Tinubu’s choice considering the wanton killings the Christian community has experienced in Nigeria within the last seven years. The massacre in the Catholic Church at Owo rings a bell. To these people, alternatives exist in Atiku and Peter but here is it: due to what I cannot describe as the rivalry between Igbos and Yorubas, the vast majority of these Yoruba Christians will not vote for an Igbo man. They will/might be shamed, mocked at or derided or whatever, but they won’t vote for Peter Obi and/or rather cast their votes for Atiku. On the other hand, Yoruba Muslims will never vote for an Igbo man, certainly not when an illustrious son of theirs has a strong likelihood of becoming the president.

In the north-central, Tinubu’s prospects are pretty significant as people, especially the Muslims in Kwara will vote for him. The same thing in Nasarrawa, Kogi, and Niger especially as the vast majority of people in IDP camps are Christians. Benue, for instance, has one of the highest concentrations of IDPs thereby making them unqualified to vote. His chances in Plateau and Benue are very low but APC’s structures there can deliver the minimum requirement of 25% to scale through. In the south-south and south-east, Tinubu’s chances are extremely low considering he never campaigned in the south-east and only campaigned in Delta and Cross River states in the south-south during the APC presidential primaries. Effectively, he believes he won’t win in those regions, and rightfully so. In fact, I predict that Tinubu will not campaign during the campaign season in any of the south-eastern states and only in Cross River considering the influence of Okowa in Delta. He might substitute Delta with Akwa Ibom but that is it, just two states in the south-south and none in the south-east. The south-south and south-east together are home to the vast majority of Christians in Nigeria. They will not be receptive to a Muslim-Muslim presidency.

[/s]
Nonsense post

tensazangetsu20:
Nigerians will answer with emotions. I don't care . I just pity those who have given birth to Nigerian kids. The kind of suffering that will come in the next 4 years eh

I had to post this thread so that posterity will judge me that I tried my best to advise people. When e finally happen, I'll gloat at them (I'm kukuma good at gloating).

These optimistic Nigerians forget that the best way to predict events in Nigeria is to ALWAYS expecting the worse to happen.

Shikamaru1:
From now till the end of the year, the media will be awash with write ups on why Obi should step down for Atiku, if he succumbs to the pressure of stepping down, his political career is dead. What is the difference between Atiku and Tinubu? If Atiku wins, after his 8 years tenure, the APC will field a Notherner as it's presidential flag bearer citing the same flimsy reason that 'a southerner can't win a National election without their support ' then the Nothern part of Nigeria will rule in perpetuity. Let everyone go to the ballot to test their popularity Next year, Obi should not step down for Atiku.

Fine but please don't come complaining when you have a Muslim-Muslim presidency, and expectedly 24 years of Muslims being the president.

Also, I'm curious, why do you believe Peter Obi can win the election?

post=114688564:
[s][/s]
Nonsense post

To slam your head five times daily shouldn't be hard for you sha.

Toh

.

The way people showed Buhari love against Jonathan in 2015 is the same way people are showing OBI love now. APC used Bokoharam, unemployment and falling of naira to campaign. Yet no improvement, same thing is happening now. Tinubu is part of the present evil government. It's only an insane person or someone benefiting from this corrupt government that will support APC to continue. We are giving Obi a chance too. Most of y'all have short memory.

Shikamaru1:
There's really no difference between Atiku and Tinubu, both of them will pander to the yearnings of the North. If Atiku wins, believe me, a Notherner will take over from him, Nigerians are making a big deal out of the Muslim - Muslim ticket, if Buhari couldn't islamise Nigeria, how much more Tinubu, a Yoruba Man.

Peter Obi won't win but it's best for him to contest so we can Guage the voting strength of a united south.

Yeah, because islamisation comes immediately not coordinated like the incessant abduction of Christian clerics, razing down of Christian communities and houses, the consistent butchering of Christians across Northern Nigeria etc. Yeah, allowing ISWAP unfettered access to slaughter Christians in Taraba because they were attacked in the Middle East and burning of churches in Kogi aren't signs of stealth islamisation.

helinues:
Toh

nairaland FFK how far

Gerrard59:


That's not true. Atiku's VP candidate is a Christian. Those who will vote for Atiku have historically voted for the PDP. In my post on Yoruba Christians, he's likely to gain new voters from them (people who voted for the APC because of Yemi Osinbajo). The vast majority of Peter Obi's supporters are people who have always voted for the PDP, no previous voters from previous elections. Peter Obi has lost three geopolitical zones - South West, North West and North East. Technically, he has lost the north central and makes it worse for the PDP to gain votes there.

So, how he's going to win?

An Islamic preacher prior to when Shettima was chosen warned that APC shouldn't choose a Christian VP because if anything happens to Tinubu, the person takes over, and Northern Christians should never become the president. He also said Igbo man should never be allowed to become president. Is that not the reason they ganged up against Jonathan because they saw him as an Igbo man?

So, tell me how on earth is Peter Obi expected to win?

Show me the voting result during Jonathan time?
Oga, go and rest and carry your propaganda to your WhatsApp group and not here. Everything is in Peter Obi's favor if you don't know . You and PDP should look for another tactics because if peter was gonna step down, he would have accepted the VP slot from kwankwaso or Atiku.
And mind you, peter Obi is a movement, others will come onboard when their are sure that the coast is clear.

It will be suicidal if he step down at this point. But the truth is, he can't win the election in 2023.

shortIGBOman:
Peter Obi just dey waste his time. Igbo can never rule this Country.

And you're here crying?..

Bandit spotted.
Get lost.

rolams:
It will be suicidal if he step down at this point. But the truth is, he can't win the election in 2023.

What if he wins?

Its only Yoruba's that tells you that Peter Obi will not win. Not Nigerians.

mycar:

Show me the voting result during Jonathan time?
Oga, go and rest and carry your propaganda to your WhatsApp group and not here. Everything is in Peter Obi's favor if you don't know . You and PDP should look for another tactics because if peter was gonna step down, he would have accepted the VP slot from kwankwaso or Atiku.
And mind you, peter Obi is a movement, others will come onboard when their are sure that the coast is clear.

I deliberately omitted that aspect because I know someone will mention it.

Here are the results: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Nigerian_presidential_election#:~:text=Elected%20President&text=Jonathan%20was%20declared%20the%20winner%20on%2019%20April.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Nigerian_general_election#:~:text=Opposition%20candidate%20Muhammadu%20Buhari%20won,lost%20re%2Delection%20in%20Nigeria.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Nigerian_general_election#:~:text=Incumbent%20president%20Muhammadu%20Buhari%20won,former%20date%20of%20Democracy%20Day.

Tell me how your darling Peter Obi is going to win the regions Buhari won? Or you're one of those people who believe Tinubu will lose his backyard?
Can't you see that Peter Obi contesting reduces the votes Atiku should garner (2019)?