The Peter Obi movement is not just online. It is HUGE offline. Real huge.

I dont know where you are in Nigeria, but in the SE, SS, parts of SW(esp Lagos) and parts of the NC/NE("Middle belt" ), Obi movement is huge and more importantly, growing.

As to the factors currently operating and likely to affect next year's election:

1. Huge interest shown by the Youths (and Young people), a demographic that is not only by far the largest in the country, but one that is usuallly uninterested in previous elections, have now been woken up and would vote in massive numbers this time around. They are also the demographic with the greatest passion, needed to power a movement.

2. The higher interest of the south compared to the north, except perhaps Kano and environs(Kwankwaso effect).

3. The fact that as it stands, Peter Obi is the only candidate amongst the big four that is assured of a regional block vote(Southeast). None of the others can get a regional block vote. As a matter of fact, the upper north(where Kwankawso and ATiku comes from) will be shared by at least three of the candidates whilst the Southwest(where Tinubu comes from) will be shared by 3 of the candidates also. No body has ever won elections in Nigeria without a regional block vote behind him.

4. The Momemtum of the election is with Obi(and to some extent, Kwankwaso) whilst the 2 other older parties have issues with regional and religious balancing - they have issuesi n their parties currently. Momentum, if it continues to the day of the elections, have always been crucial to winning elections.

5. The organic nature of some of the campaigns(esp Obi and Kwankwaso), making the campaigns very unpredictable as people would be doing much of the work themselves as the "spirit leads", without direct inducement from the candidates. We have already started seeing it with the printing of campaign materials and billboards, raising of funds, man-to-man "preaching" of preferred candidates, political parades organised by random people, etc. that one sees only with the Obi and (again to some extent, Kwankwaso) movements.

6. The narrative of the elections so far is with Obi and his supporters. The obedients have for example almost completely taken over the online(Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Youtube, even Tittok, etc) media and even offline(Obi is perhaps the most talked about candidate, even from other parties, currently). This has been very frustrtaing to the older parties as they know very well how the narrative is crucial to winning elections(the main reason for the attack on the character of "Obedients" by the old parties). That was one of the things used effectively by APC in 2015.

7. The fact the country is truly messed up and people are just TIRED of the old(current) system, to the point of been a Life-and-death situation/decision for them. From terrible lived insecurity, personally biting economy(inflation, exchange rate, poverty rate, unemployment rate, debt levels etc), terrible infrastructure esp Power, a dead education and health system(e.g 6 months running ASUU strike in an election year), badly managed diversity by the ruling elites, unimaginable corruption, etc etc. This is perhaps the greatest hindrance to both the APC (especially) and PDP.

8. The general sentiment that power should shift to the south. A sentiment even shared by a lot of persons in the north, talkess of the south. It is generally felt that power should move back to the south after spending 8 years in the north.

9. The Muslim-Muslim ticket of the ruling party, which would be very fatal to APC in the Middle belt(parts of NC/NE) as well as most parts of the south, which trust me will be harnessed to effect by some of the political parties. This is very huge as Christains are very angry, esp northern Chrristains. When you see most northern APC members openly complain, it is not just that they feel slighted themselves, it is also that there is the real fear that they will not only lose the Presidential elections but may also lose in other down-the-ballot positions(Governoships, NA, SHA, etc) as their people would not vote for any thing APC due to the Muslim-muslim tciket. And may I repeat that this is very real in those populations, as christains are currently massively mobilizing. And with the nature of the next Presidential elections(SE been reserved for one candidate, and SW, NE, NW, SS very competive), anybody who can win the NC(generally) and most parts of the "Middle belt" may very likely win the elections. This would clearly be in favour of Atiku and Obi, with Obi in prime position if he can make allainces and harness these votes, been the only Christain candidate amongst the big four.

10. The new electoral law, with the use of BVAS and the automatic upload of results from the PU, and the fact that election management has been improving markedly as evidenced in the last Osun election, is a huge burst to the new parties/candidates. This is cos a lot more people will have greater confidence that their votes will count. Also, there is a far lesser chance of election manipulation as was the case previously.

11. Arising partly from point 10 above, and the general greater interest shown by a large majority of people in the next election(as evidenced for instance by the ongoing and unprecedented PVC registration and collection), the voter turnout in 2023 is expected to be much higher than say 2019(where just about 30% of registered voters actually voted). This is crucial as not only does the majority of registered voters refuse to vote in previous elections, but that 30% minority is the main reason the "structure" of the old political parties work: these 30% are mostly members of the political parties; the family, friends, villagers etc of the candidates, and a few others who are mobilized by the deployment of money or sentiments by these old politicians. Thsi time around as more people vote, the effect of this minority voters("structure" would be much smaller. Also, most of these voters(both the new ones and the
old voters that normally dont vote) are likely to vote the newer candidates/parties.

12. Peter Obi is the candidate with the CHARACTER and the MESSAGE, and people are very receptive to the possibility of change.

13. The elections is still 7 months ago even after the choosing of candidates, unlike what is obtained previously. As they say, a day is a lifetime in politics, talkless of 7 months.

I do not kid myself. There is a lot of work to be done by Obi and the campaign. There are 2 main factors militating against his candidature and they are considerable(I will talk about these later), but I believe he has a path to victory next year. The current factors, momentum and NEED favours this.

Personally, i have chosen to vote for him cos i really want the "old system" to be changed. And i believe that from the Big 4, he is the one to most likely make that happen.

Engage guys

For or against, after reading through

Hnnnnm

We're all supporting Peter Obi and Yusuf Datti Baba Ahmed.

No other alternative comes close.

We still have a long way to go, but it is clear we have the best candidate and we will ensure he gets to aso rock.

This is aptly written...


For a better Nigeria... Peter Obi is the true color of a reform system...

He has discussed and given lots of insights on every sector of the country..

Truly, he knows the problem and have solutions to tackle lots of these challenges...

Also, taking over the presidency, will push lots of corrupt people away and change the system of corrupt people associating through parties to help one of them to power so to benefit either as a minister or contractors or allies to embezzle the country...


Imagine paying delegates in dollars when we have official currency in Nigeria...

#PETERISBETTER

Eddygourdo:
We still have a long way to go, but it is clear we have the best candidate and we will ensure he gets to aso rock.

Yea... a lot of work

@Anambrason @senatordave @helinues @onatisi @redsun @seunmsg

nameo:
Engage guys

For or against, after reading through

.

All this are noise the way APC makes noise in 2015. If eventually obi enters you'll still make another noise in 2027 seeking for another change. Same human politics same noise from the starts of human history and we can never be satisfied by human rule.

Simeonjoe1:
All this are noise the way APC makes noise in 2015. If eventually obi enters you'll still make another noise in 2027 seeking for another change. Same human politics same noise from the starts of human history and we can never be satisfied by human rule.

You have lost hope abi?

I will not blame you.

But some of us xannot afford to. At least for now