Okay 57 percent from where. You certainly dont understand the tribal arithmetic of kenya.

Ruto is perceived to be corrupt - because first he cut his teeth in the very corrupt regime of Moi - he has new money - and isnt afraid to flaunt it.

Ruto being very smart and ambitious learnt in Moi era that Kenya politics was TRIBE AND BRIBE. Just like in Uganda you need a AK47 - in Kenya you better have money - people dont respect poor folks. That is why Sonkos, Johos, almost entire leadership is full of thugs, drug dealers, conmen - MONEY SPEAKS.

If Ruto didnt have bottomless pockets of money - he'd already be dead now after Uhuru betrayed him, send entire gov machinery to crush him and worked with entire opposition. Ruto had to literally rain money, have politician on weekly retainer, and have entire church on M-pesa mobile money every sunday.

Once Ruto get PORK - he wont need to accumulate money - nobody will challenge him political for a decade plus - and he will transform kenya because he very smart, very hardworking and very gifted.

68816419:

Since he is too elderly and doesn't comprehend current development trends, I would prefer that he didn't win, but it appears quite unlikely that he won't loose. In my opinion, Raila will prevail with 57 percent of the total votes.
I can see why the majority of Somalis would support Ruto, but why do most of my Kenyan friends believe Ruto to be far more corrupt than Raila?

Wacthing RUTO's Mega rally at the same time

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0AwD7TavZww

That impressive considering intimidation Uhuru pulled to stop the rally - and this new ground Ruto is making - because Mombasa and entire coast was pro-Raila. Now it's a battleground.

68816419:
Wacthing RUTO's Mega rally at the same time

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0AwD7TavZww

rvp2018:
Okay 57 percent from where. You certainly dont understand the tribal arithmetic of kenya.

Ruto is perceived to be corrupt - because first he cut his teeth in the very corrupt regime of Moi - he has new money - and isnt afraid to flaunt it.

Ruto being very smart and ambitious learnt in Moi era that Kenya politics was TRIBE AND BRIBE. Just like in Uganda you need a AK47 - in Kenya you better have money - people dont respect poor folks. That is why Sonkos, Johos, almost entire leadership is full of thugs, drug dealers, conmen - MONEY SPEAKS.

If Ruto didnt have bottomless pockets of money - he'd already be dead now after Uhuru betrayed him, send entire gov machinery to crush him and worked with entire opposition. Ruto had to literally rain money, have politician on weekly retainer, and have entire church on M-pesa mobile money every sunday.

Once Ruto get PORK - he wont need to accumulate money - nobody will challenge him political for a decade plus - and he will transform kenya because he very smart, very hardworking and very gifted.

I am familiar with tribal calculations in Kenya because I have lived there. According to my understanding, Ruto and Odinga will each receive a portion of the Kikuyus and Mount Kenya regions, while Raila would receive at least 80% of the votes cast in Kisumu and the surrounding counties. And don't forget that Raila has consistently prevailed in Kenya's coastal region; nothing would change this time.
Therefore, the elections would now be won and decided by these smaller counties. Don't forget the "Martha effect," which is the fact that most Kenyan women and her tribal people support Kikuyu lawyer Martha Karua as his running partner.

chrisooblog:
Get off your high horse dude. The Vietnamese Army and Vietcong battled against and overcame the might of the American Army, while you're here beating your chest because your ancestors were playing hide and seek with the brits


I have more respect for Ashanti and Zulu armies that faced British soldiers head on in battle with lesser weapons and sometimes won.

who asked your opinion bru?.... Did I say the Boere were better than any other tribe? No I didn't, simply responded to Rvps unprovoked jab that Boere won't last a month in the Sahara because qoute "they are soft"

Know your role and stay in your lane

rvp2018:
That impressive considering intimidation Uhuru pulled to stop the rally - and this new ground Ruto is making - because Mombasa and entire coast was pro-Raila. Now it's a battleground.

It going to be extremely hard for Ruto to win Coast, trust me my guy

Gish man why so sensitive?

jl115:
who asked your opinion bru?.... Did I say the Boere were better than any other tribe? No I didn't, simply responded to Rvps unprovoked jab that Boere won't last a month in the Sahara because qoute "they are soft"

Know your role and stay in your lane

Sure I wont forget this. On Tuesday night, I will be here Inshallah. Just out of curiosity how did you calculate 57%?

It very easy maths. Raila had is 2017 base - 45% - Ruto had is Jubilee base 55% - now Raila start -10% - or well 5% to hit 50%.

If he was smart - he'd retain NASA stronghold - and go for that 6% in Mt kenya - and he'd be home and dry.

But he istn't - he has hammorrage western , coast, ukambani - some by 20-30% - others have completely flipped.

In short - we are back to 2017 - because while Raila went hunting in former jubilee zones - Ruto similarly went hunting in NASA zones - the gains cancel each other.

68816419:

I am familiar with tribal calculations in Kenya because I have lived there. According to my understanding, Ruto and Odinga will each receive a portion of the Kikuyus and Mount Kenya regions, while Raila would receive at least 80% of the votes cast in Kisumu and the surrounding counties. And don't forget that Raila has consistently prevailed in Kenya's coastal region; nothing would change this time.
Therefore, the elections would now be won and decided by these smaller counties. Don't forget the "Martha effect," which is the fact that most Kenyan women and her tribal people support Kikuyu lawyer Martha Karua as his running partner.

rvp2018:
That impressive considering intimidation Uhuru pulled to stop the rally - and this new ground Ruto is making - because Mombasa and entire coast was pro-Raila. Now it's a battleground.

Even if Ruto loses, I will still respect him for fighting the battle on his own, with minimal help from his official political party.
But if I may ask, why may Uhuru Kenyatta have abruptly deserted Ruto without taking into account the repercussions for his own party?

Kenya politics is personality driven. Nigeria parties are ahead of kenya. We have new parties every election. Uhuru did not want to share power - especially after 1st term experience. Ruto is very forcefully and in their first term - got perhaps 60-70% of power - while Uhuru is habitually drunk.

So the 2nd term - Uhuru knowing it was final term - he want to monopolize power - so he had to kick Ruto out - by bringing Raila without sharing the pie. Raila is easy to please idiot - given fake AU job and few outriders - he was happy.

At some point Uhuru thought he is too young to retire - and wanted to ammend the constitution to expand executive - get prime minister - so he can go for it.It failed...and now he is Azimio Chairman - in 50-50 coalition with Raila - except his own Mt kenya people have rejected his moves.

68816419:

Even if Ruto loses, I will still respect him for fighting the battle on his own, with minimal help from his official political party.
But if I may ask, why may Uhuru Kenyatta have abruptly deserted Ruto without taking into account the repercussions for his own party?

rvp2018:
Kenya politics is personality driven. Nigeria parties are ahead of kenya. We have new parties every election. Uhuru did not want to share power - especially after 1st term experience. Ruto is very forcefully and in their first term - got perhaps 60-70% of power - while Uhuru is habitually drunk.

So the 2nd term - Uhuru knowing it was final term - he want to[b] monopolize power[/b] - so he had to kick Ruto out - by bringing Raila without sharing the pie. Raila is easy to please idiot - given fake AU job and few outriders - he was happy.

At some point Uhuru thought he is too young to retire - and wanted to ammend the constitution to expand executive - get prime minister - so he can go for it.It failed...and now he is Azimio Chairman - in 50-50 coalition with Raila - except his own Mt kenya people have rejected his moves.

@bold , Can you kindly clarify what you mean when you state that "he does not want monopoly"? Are you indicating that Raila might be detained and imprisoned by if para-venture Ruto wins the elections? Why won't Uhuru want to share power with Ruto?

chrisooblog:
Gish man why so sensitive?

just stating the facts bru

68816419:

@bold , Can you kindly clarify what you mean when you state that "he does not want monopoly"? Are you indicating that Raila might be detained and imprisoned by if para-venture Ruto wins the elections? Why won't Uhuru want to share power with Ruto?

Manze how did you calculate 57 percent when you're totally ignorant. Ruto n Uhuru came together in 2013 in 50-50 coalition gov btw their two parties.The deal unlike others in Kenya was respected and gov was very cohesive they even decided to merge their parties into one.2017 they win 2nd term.This was final term for uhuru and Ruto would run in 2022.Then things started going south.. uhuru reneges on the deal ...so knowing he can't be able to govern with divided party..Uhuru approaches Raila..for informal power deal.. basically protect me against Ruto then 2022 I back you

rvp2018:
Kalenjin are the most prepared of them all - because every male - at his mid teens is taken through a rudimentary military training -in the forest for a month now coz of schools (my father went for six month - my grandfather a year - I took 1.5months - a military bootcamp where you trained to make weapons and fight )- the rest really is to upgrade or not upgrade their weapons. Those that have guns like Pokots - though just few hundrends - are tough nuts.

Now imagine nearly a million of 18-30yrs old (active warrior ageset) already trained on basic warfare against kenya gov entire force of mere 100k. In 2007 - it took 48hrs to evict 0.6m people leading Ruto wrongly to ICC for crimes against humanity - gov embarrassed by their ineffectiveness created a fake story that Ruto had organized and trained warriors - total falsehood.

Now they want to sent water canoons - like someone in kalenjinland will be demonstrating in the streets - nope - if war occur kalenjin will fight almost exclusively at night.

Basic warfare against a well trained army, trained in modern warfare with advance modern equipment you must be joking.


Night attacks against a well fortified military base with snipers and soldiers equipped with night vision hanging around will be suicide for Kalenjin fighters. This is not the 18th century where an attacking force just ride into military camp.

68816419:

I am familiar with tribal calculations in Kenya because I have lived there. According to my understanding, Ruto and Odinga will each receive a portion of the Kikuyus and Mount Kenya regions, while Raila would receive at least 80% of the votes cast in Kisumu and the surrounding counties. And don't forget that Raila has consistently prevailed in Kenya's coastal region; nothing would change this time.
Therefore, the elections would now be won and decided by these smaller counties. Don't forget the "Martha effect," which is the fact that most Kenyan women and her tribal people support Kikuyu lawyer Martha Karua as his running partner.

This is true....and if Raila gets 25% of kikuyu votes he'll definitely win

Kenya politics - desperate Raila now put opinion polls on billboard. This must a first in the world. This level of desperation is hilarious

rvp2018:
Kalenjin are the most prepared of them all - because every male - at his mid teens is taken through a rudimentary military training -in the forest for a month now coz of schools (my father went for six month - my grandfather a year - I took 1.5months - a military bootcamp where you trained to make weapons and fight )- the rest really is to upgrade or not upgrade their weapons. Those that have guns like Pokots - though just few hundrends - are tough nuts.

Now imagine nearly a million of 18-30yrs old (active warrior ageset) already trained on basic warfare against kenya gov entire force of mere 100k. In 2007 - it took 48hrs to evict 0.6m people leading Ruto wrongly to ICC for crimes against humanity - gov embarrassed by their ineffectiveness created a fake story that Ruto had organized and trained warriors - total falsehood.

Now they want to sent water canoons - like someone in kalenjinland will be demonstrating in the streets - nope - if war occur kalenjin will fight almost exclusively at night.

Hahaaa what are you trying to say here....that the government can be defeated by some primitive villagers with arrows

Where was the mighty gov in 2007.

StivoH2022:


Hahaaa what are you trying to say here....that the government can be defeated by some primitive villagers with arrows

Gain 25% in Mt kenya (10 counties) - Lose 25% in Western, Ukambani & Coast (5,3,4)...end of day..you're doing nothing.
Raila will gain in 10 counties in Mt Kenya & possibly 2 Gusii Counties (12) -
Ruto will gain in 13 counties by even bigger margins (as some have completely flipped) - Bungoma, Tranzoia, Kakamega, Vihiga, Busia,Machakos,Makueni,Kitui, Taita Taveta, kwale, Mombasa & Kilifi.
The Northern Kenya - From Turkana to Mandera remain 50-50 game - and they have very few votes.

StivoH2022:


This is true....and if Raila gets 25% of kikuyu votes he'll definitely win

rvp2018:
Gain 25% in Mt kenya - Lose 25% in Western, Ukambani & Coast...end of day..you're doing nothing.

Western,Coast,LowerEastern their combined votes are equal to those of Mt Kenya including Nakuru and others

2017 Raila got about 5% of Mt Kenya
Uhuruto got about 20% of those regions you mentioned combined

Even if Ruto will get 30% he would have added 10% only, while Raila will add 20%

rvp2018:
Where was the mighty gov in 2007.

They were biased...I was there during the whole PEV

They will even be more biased - it's called a civil war.

StivoH2022:

They were biased...I was there during the whole PEV

rvp2018:
They will even be more biased - it's called a civil war.

So which tribe would the kalenjins be attacking....
If not Kikuyus there won't be any civil war in RV.

The government won't take rural demonstrations seriously

rvp2018:
Gain 25% in Mt kenya (10 counties) - Lose 25% in Western, Ukambani & Coast (5,3,4)...end of day..you're doing nothing.
Raila will gain in 10 counties in Mt Kenya & possibly 2 Gusii Counties (12) -
Ruto will gain in 13 counties by even bigger margins (as some have completely flipped) - Bungoma, Tranzoia, Kakamega, Vihiga, Busia,Machakos,Makueni,Kitui, Taita Taveta, kwale, Mombasa & Kilifi.
The Northern Kenya - From Turkana to Mandera remain 50-50 game - and they have very few votes.

The issue is how many votes does those counties have?
Kikuyus/Gema have almost 6m votes across the country.

....while the entire western have 2m, Coast 1.9m, Eastern 1.9m...Uhuruto got a good percentage from it...while Raila got almost zero in Mt Kenya

Sometimes all you need is an excel.

I have analyzed - and assumed Ruto & Raila gains 25% from each of these top 10 strongholds. Although we know Ruto will gain more - but also Mt kenya generally turn out more.

Conclusion. Raila get a million more votes. Raila loses a million votes. Ruto loses 1 million votes. Raila gains a million votes.

What remain - the 1.5M gap we had in 2017 - Raila has to increase his votes by 800K - to beat Ruto by 100K. I hope you follow the logic.

So for Raila to close the gap - he still need another a million vote to beat Ruto by 100K votes.That is 50% of Mt Kenya - WE KNOW THAT IS IMPOSSIBLE - and therefore we know he CANNOT WIN

StivoH2022:


The issue is how many votes does those counties have?
Kikuyus/Gema have almost 6m votes across the country.

....while the entire western have 2m, Coast 1.9m, Eastern 1.9m...Uhuruto got a good percentage from it...while Raila got almost zero in Mt Kenya

rvp2018:
Sometimes all you need is an excel.

I have analyzed - and assumed Ruto & Raila gains 25% from each of these top 10 strongholds. Although we know Ruto will gain more - but also Mt kenya generally turn out more.

Conclusion. Raila get a million more votes. Raila loses a million votes. Ruto loses 1 million votes. Raila gains a million votes.

What remain - the 1.5M gap we had in 2017 - Raila has to increase his votes by 800K - to beat Ruto by 100K. I hope you follow the logic.

So for Raila to close the gap - he still need another a million vote to beat Ruto by 100K votes.That is 50% of Mt Kenya - WE KNOW THAT IS IMPOSSIBLE - and therefore we know he CANNOT WIN

We're using the nullified election as a base but it's OK just for argument

Uhuruto got 12% in Bungoma,10% in Machakos...meaning Ruto should get 35% for you to say he has added 25%...which is not possible remember how hard they tried in vain back in 2017

You're starting to become incoherent - when face with facts.

For example - Bungoma - Ruto has Weta and entire Ford-K crew. In 2017 - thanks to Speaker Lusaka - they improved from 12% in 2013 to 24-30% in 2017. All opinion polls shows Ruto has flipped Bungoma and Tranzoia.

Example 2 - Machakos - Ruto has Muthama & has retained Mutua - and this time round Kalonzo is not Raila DPORK - there a lot of disaffection in Ukambani - the usual 90 is impossible.

I have added more data - showing this election is a repeat of last time - prepare for premium tears.

StivoH2022:

We're using the nullified election as a base but it's OK just for argument

Uhuruto got 12% in Bungoma,10% in Machakos...meaning Ruto should get 35% for you to say he has added 25%...which is not possible remember how hard they tried in vain back in 2017

rvp2018:
You're starting to become incoherent - when face with facts.

For example - Bungoma - Ruto has Weta and entire Ford-K crew. In 2017 - thanks to Speaker Lusaka - they improved from 12% in 2013 to 24-30% in 2017. All opinion polls shows Ruto has flipped Bungoma and Tranzoia.

Example 2 - Machakos - Ruto has Muthama & has retained Mutua - and this time round Kalonzo is not Raila DPORK - there a lot of disaffection in Ukambani - the usual 90 is impossible.

I have added more data - showing this election is a repeat of last time - prepare for premium tears.

I can also post such graphs that show Raila leading...but we'll argue forever on that

The other thing you should looks is voter turn out...thuraku kuumera plus votes stuffing managed to 86%
This time it will be about 70%, then minus 25% of Raila...Ruto will endup with 50% of Mt Kenya votes losing 3m votes

...and remember that 2017 election was not free and fair...there were almost 2m ghost votes

StivoH2022:


I can also post such graphs that show Raila leading...but we'll argue forever on that

The other thing you should looks is voter turn out...thuraku kuumera plus votes stuffing managed to 86%
This time it will be about 70%, then minus 25% of Raila...Ruto will endup with 50% of Mt Kenya votes losing 3m votes

...and remember that 2017 election was not free and fair...there were almost 2m ghost votes

A little insight

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2JBurCanJpg

NTSA:

A little insight

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2JBurCanJpg

I watched it live ....Ndii must defend his side....2017 election was tampered with
Look what IEBC said today

What is really wrong with Africa?
Why is it easy for you to consider voting in old spent politicians who are not in tune with the times against younger and more savvy politicians?

We don't have the luxury of putting in power people like sleepy Joe in this part of the world.
No wonder Africa is a mess.