I think it will be the north central... Tinubu will win the south west, obi will win the south east and ss looks like going to obi narrowly.the north east and north west will either go to tinubu or atiku narrowly and kwankwaso will get good votes here.if tinubu wins both north east and west,he does not need the north central.if atiku wins both regions,he needs north central that is if he loses south east and if obi wins se/ss,he will need nc plus 25% in two core northern states.if tinubu narrowly loses the core north,he will need the north central.even if he wins one of the two regions,he still needs nc.if kwankwaso wins core north,he will still need nc.

As it stands,on paper the north central is tilting towards apc and then obi.apc has 5 governors.tinubu will win kwara,looks likely to win niger,looks very solid in kogi and nasarawa with obi and atiku still looking solid there.obi looks set to win benue.plateau is looking very tight same as fct.



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Lalasticlala

I learnt that lalasticlala is no more a mod.
No wonder snake post no dey hit front page anymore.

North central weh deh share votes equally.
Dont even reason the north east, the winner in that region wont cruise with more than 300k votes difference, so they wont be the deciding factor.
Rivers state alone gave more vote difference to PDP than the entire north central combined

SOUTH SOUTH AND MIDDLE BELT

ALREADY IN THE BAG FOR PETER OBI

ABIA
ANAMBRA
IMO
EBONYI
ENUGU
CROSS RIVER
AKWA IBOM
RIVERS
DELTA
BAYELSA
EDO
BENUE
TARABA
PLATEAU
LAGOS 50 PERCENT
ONDO 50 PERCENT
OSUN 25 PERCENT
OGUN 20 PERCENT
EKITI 25 PERCENT
KADUNA 25 PERCENT
NASARAWA 25 PERCENT
KATSINA 15 PERCENT
KANO 20 PERCENT
KOGI 25 PERCENT (NEIGHBORING IGALA FACTOR)
KWARA 10 PERCENT
BORNO 10 PERCENT
NIGER 10 PERCENT
ABUJA STRAIGHT WIN

ARGUE WITH YOUR KEYBOARD

This is what is very likely going to happen next year:

Peter Obi will win SE and SS massively(he is actually the only one of the 4 that is almost certain of regional block votes next year: Delta and Bayelsa been the only states in the 2 regions he may get around 40%).

He will win Lagos(slightly) and get at least 25% in at least 4 of the SW states(Tinubu will very likey going to win the SW but not with block votes as 3 of the candidates are in play here).

Obi will win Benue and Plateau. And get at least 25% in Nasarawa, Taraba, Adamawa, Kaduna, FCT. Then Gombe, Kogi and Niger may also provide 25% if the present momentum continues.

Much of the NW and NE will be massively divided between Tinubu, Atiku and Kwankwaso, with Obi getting a distant 4th in both regions.

Obi will win the Majority of votes casted and if he gets 25% in at least 16 southern states(which is very likely), he only needs 25% in 8 states in the north(Kaduna, Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, FCT, Taraba- he needs 2 more and he is declared the winner)

OBALOLA55:
SOUTH SOUTH AND MIDDLE BELT

South south will share votes almost equally, north central will share equally too.

The decider should be the one who gave bloc votes that could swallow two two regions combined.

And i could only think of NW and SE

fman:

I learnt that lalasticlala is no more a mod.
No wonder snake post no dey hit front page anymore.

How come

Michelle70:
North central weh deh share votes equally.
Dont even reason the north east, the winner in that region wont cruise with more than 300k votes difference, so they wont be the deciding factor.
Rivers state alone gave more vote difference to PDP than the entire north central combined

You are right but it will be tight in those core north area

In 3 months Peter obi has moved from he can't win a ward to being in contention to win ....lol

Wait till campaign starts ...35% for obi in the south west is very very possible ....30% in Kaduna and taraba sure like mad ... wining Benue ,pleatue ,and Abuja is realistic

The fact obi has Edo locked down is the most shocking trust me ...how Edo vote is similar to how ondo votes too

Lagos is a possibility based on so many factors

Michelle70:
South south will share votes almost equally, north central will share equally too.

The decider should be the one who gave bloc votes that could swallow two two regions combined.

And i could only think of NW and SE

YOU WISH

I PUT IT TO YOU THAT OBI WILL WIN DELTA STATE CONVINCINGLY

nameo:
This is what is very likely going to happen next year:

Peter Obi will win SE and SS massively(he is actually the only one of the 4 that is almost certain of regional block votes next year: Delta and Bayelsa been the only states in the 2 regions he may get around 40%).

He will win Lagos(slightly) and get at least 25% in at least 4 of the SW states(Tinubu will very likey going to win the SW but not with block votes as 3 of the candidates are in play here).

Obi will win Benue and Plateau. And get at least 25% in Nasarawa, Taraba, Adamawa, Kaduna, FCT. Then Gombe, Kogi and Niger may also provide 25% if the present momentum continues.

Much of the NW and NE will be massively divided between Tinubu, Atiku and Kwankwaso, with Obi getting a distant 4th in both regions.

Obi will win the Majority of votes casted and if he gets 25% in at least 16 southern states(which is very likely), he only needs 25% in 8 states in the north(Kaduna, Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, FCT, Taraba- he needs 2 more and he is declared the winner)

Peter Obi cannot win SS massively.
Votes will be shared in SS with PDP getting a slight edge.
u should know that the contest is against 3 parties this time and not two parties.

Any party should be happy to get 40% in a region.
in 2019, PDP had 67% and if 25% of those PDP votes moves to LP and 10% of APC moves to LP, then LP should be taking about 35-40% and that is enough to win the SS or coming out second position.
All those 70 and 80% votes that one party cruises will not happen again, maybe except in SE that will give Obi bloc votes

OBALOLA55:
YOU WISH

I PUT IT TO YOU THAT OBI WILL WIN DELTA STATE CONVINCINGLY

Delta, Okowa own state?
let us see na.

mrvitalis:
In 3 months Peter obi has moved from he can't win a ward to being in contention to win ....lol

Wait till campaign starts ...35% for obi in the south west is very very possible ....30% in Kaduna and taraba sure like mad ... wining Benue ,pleatue ,and Abuja is realistic

The fact obi has Edo locked down is the most shocking trust me ...how Edo vote is similar to how ondo votes too

Lagos is a possibility based on so many factors

LAGOS IS FOR OBI

NA REASON WHY AGBADORIANS DEY CRY NIGHT AND DAY

Michelle70:
Delta, Okowa own state?
let us see na.

LOL MAKE I BUST YOUR HEAD MORE

OBI WILL WIN ASABA

OBI WILL WIN BOTH WARRI NORTH AND SOUTH

DEM NOR LIKE IFEANYI FOR THAT END BRUH

garfield1:


You are right but it will be tight in those core north area

exactly.
I predict Atiku winning in the core north.
2023 elections is not about competence but will be decided by structure and brotherhood.

Obi will convincingly loose the northern votes while christians will massively vote for him.

PDP will fight for SS votes with Obi, thanks to structure of PDP in SS and brotherhood of Obi.

APC will be third in SS but it wont be a distant third.
North will vote Atiku cos of brotherhood and then vote APC cos of structure, Obi will fail massively.

In SE, Obi will conveniently win the region, even if APC and PDP likes, they should have structure and sky scrapper, Obi will take 65-70%
PDP will take 20% and APC will see 10%

Definitely not the IPOB zone,they have no votes.
I doubt if 1 million votes will come out of the entire IPOB zone

Make una come out come vote,,

OBALOLA55:
LOL MAKE I BUST YOUR HEAD MORE

OBI WILL WIN ASABA

OBI WILL WIN BOTH WARRI NORTH AND SOUTH

DEM NOR LIKE IFEANYI FOR THAT END BRUH

make i burst ur head too.
Bayelsans do not like Goodluck Jonathan when he was a Governor, infact the only governor they loved was DSP alameyesigha, Seriake dickson was like a curse in BY, but u see how they voted GEJ in 2015.
Brotherhood is the new love in Nigerian politics

Owontime:
Definitely not the IPOB zone,they have no votes.
I doubt if 1 million votes will come out of the entire IPOB zone

they gave a total of 1.2m vote difference in 2019

Their difference pass SW and North central combined.

Its not about how many votes u have, its about how that votes is shared

The real thing to know is that OBI-DATTI will clear every zone come 2023.
Nigerians are already back to their senses.
Hunger, insecurity, suffering have all resetted their brains for good.

Michelle70:
make i burst ur head too.
Bayelsans do not like Goodluck Jonathan when he was a Governor, infact the only governor they loved was DSP alameyesigha, Seriake dickson was like a curse in BY, but u see how they voted GEJ in 2015.
Brotherhood is the new love in Nigerian politics

EMOTIONAL SENTIMENTS WON’T SAVE YOU AND YOUR PDP IN 2023

PDP WILL WIN RIVERS TOO

Michelle70:
they gave a total of 1.2m vote difference in 2019

Their difference pass SW and North central combined.

Its not about how many votes u have, its about how that votes is shared

Good analysis @Michelle70
Buhari and Atiku were almost at par in 2019 going by number of states won but the marginal difference was huge;a staggering 3M plus.
Votes in bloc matters very much.
Now, it's everyman for himself.
PO bloc votes will come from SE.

OBALOLA55:
EMOTIONAL SENTIMENTS WON’T SAVE YOU AND YOUR PDP IN 2023

PDP WILL WIN RIVERS TOO

Northwest alone gave a total of 8.2 votes in 2019.

Using 2019 as a case study.
Northern votes of 17m was almost twice the southern votes of 9m.

If APC and PDP take 7m each from the north and give Obi 3m, which is
APC 7m
PDP 7m
LP 3m
where Obi wan get 4million to balance up?
knowing that Tinubu is sure of another 2m from the entire south
with this, Tinubu is 6m more than Obi, and since taking 2m from the 9m southern votes, Obi and Atiku will struggle for the remaining 7m votes, and if Obi is as popular as u all claim and collect 4m and gives Atiku 2m
it will be
APC =9m
PDP =9m
LP =8m
The race is between APC and PDP

Politics isnt bu emotions but calculating how to win

Baba, You giving Tinubu the entire South West is a mistake o.. it's so glaring that Peter Obi and Tinubu are going to share the South Western Votes.
Travel around the South Western states by yourself and see for yourself.

garfield1:
I think it will be the north central... Tinubu will win the south west, obi will win the south east and ss looks like going to obi narrowly.the north east and north west will either go to tinubu or atiku narrowly and kwankwaso will get good votes here.if tinubu wins both north east and west,he does not need the north central.if atiku wins both regions,he needs north central that is if he loses south east and if obi wins se/ss,he will need nc plus 25% in two core northern states.if tinubu narrowly loses the core north,he will need the north central.even if he wins one of the two regions,he still needs nc.if kwankwaso wins core north,he will still need nc.

As it stands,on paper the north central is tilting towards apc and then obi.apc has 5 governors.tinubu will win kwara,looks likely to win niger,looks very solid in kogi and nasarawa with obi and atiku still looking solid there.obi looks set to win benue.plateau is looking very tight same as fct.



Mynd44
Lalasticlala
Kyase
Fergie001
Helinues
Frank
Tutudesz
Aiel123
Vicdom
Esseite
Jaxxy
Jrusky
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Majole
Majamatic

SaiOba:
Baba, You giving Tinubu the entire South West is a mistake o.. it's so glaring that Peter Obi and Tinubu are going to share the South Western Votes.
Travel around the South Western states by yourself and see for yourself.

when OP says Tinubu will win SE, he didnt say other parties will not have 1 vote.
It just mean Tinubu will win SW

Obi should get north central hopefully, Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa is almost in the bag. Niger, Kogi and Kwara I can't tell between APC and PDP.

SaiOba:
Baba, You giving Tinubu the entire South West is a mistake o.. it's so glaring that Peter Obi and Tinubu are going to share the South Western Votes.
Travel around the South Western states by yourself and see for yourself.

Oga,they won't share anything oh.as igbos will vote obi,yorubas will vote asiwaju

kokoA:
Obi should get north central hopefully, Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa is almost in the bag. Niger, Kogi and Kwara I can't tell between APC and PDP.

Obi can't get nasarawa

Oh Okay then..

Michelle70:
when OP says Tinubu will win SE, he didnt say other parties will not have 1 vote.
It just mean Tinubu will win SW

nameo:
This is what is very likely going to happen next year:

Peter Obi will win SE and SS massively(he is actually the only one of the 4 that is almost certain of regional block votes next year: Delta and Bayelsa been the only states in the 2 regions he may get around 40%).

He will win Lagos(slightly) and get at least 25% in at least 4 of the SW states(Tinubu will very likey going to win the SW but not with block votes as 3 of the candidates are in play here).

Obi will win Benue and Plateau. And get at least 25% in Nasarawa, Taraba, Adamawa, Kaduna, FCT. Then Gombe, Kogi and Niger may also provide 25% if the present momentum continues.

Much of the NW and NE will be massively divided between Tinubu, Atiku and Kwankwaso, with Obi getting a distant 4th in both regions.

Obi will win the Majority of votes casted and if he gets 25% in at least 16 southern states(which is very likely), he only needs 25% in 8 states in the north(Kaduna, Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, FCT, Taraba- he needs 2 more and he is declared the winner)

Very very realistic.

No emotions

No exaggerations

Garfield1 u have your answer

Michelle70:
South south will share votes almost equally, north central will share equally too.

The decider should be the one who gave bloc votes that could swallow two two regions combined.

And i could only think of NW and SE

Obi will win Southsouth hands down.

Nothing like equal sharing of votes

OBALOLA55:
YOU WISH

I PUT IT TO YOU THAT OBI WILL WIN DELTA STATE CONVINCINGLY

Lol

They don’t know what is going on