. Most realistic analysis so far!

franchasofficia:
Atiku will win:


Adamawa
Kano (very small margin)
Gombe
Jigawa (small margin)
Sokoto
Yobe (small margin)
Zamfara
Kaduna (small margin)



But with very small margins.



Tinubu will win:

Katsina (small margin)
Borno
Kogi
Kwara
Lagos (small margin)
Osun
Ogun
Ekiti
Oyo
Ondo (small margin)



Peter Obi will win:


Anambra
Imo
Abia
Enugu
Ebonyi
Edo
Rivers
Cross Rivers
Akwa Ibom
Delta
Benue
Plateau (small margin)
Taraba (small margin)
Abuja
Bayelsa

general111:
Atiku will win Cross river state sir...keep dreaming

Dullllard !!!!!!
You don't even know how to read and comprehend

yomi961:



My brothers, don't be annoyed. There is what we call passion and there is what we call emotion. It's a big different thing for those of you who went to school like me. I went to school, you also went to school.

Emotions don't win elections. You must be realistic to win elections.You must plan to succeed and that is where I belong



To face a national assembly filled with PDP and APC members who will frustrate the hell out of him till he joins either one of their parties.

Presidents don't work in a vaccum. If you are shouting vote Peter Obi, without also working for the victory of Labour Party in the senate, house of reps and governorship as well as state assemblies, you might as well be wasting your vote.

That is how Balarable Musa, governor of old Kaduna state and PRP man, thought he could run the state with NPN members. Till they showed him pepper....

Good analysis.
As far as I like Obi, the journey is too dicey.
But at least he would surely make a mark. But perhaps in 2027, nobody should underestimate him that is if the momentum can be maintained.
One thing is certain, this Obi effect has honestly changed the political space. It has made some politicians to behave better in the public or social media. For example, I now see some of these politicians in airports with their luggages without aides unlike before. See Tinubu trying to convince us that he's still very strong and agile . All these are effects of Obi.
I'm out of here and peace.

all these obidient bastards. after declaring Tinubu winner anybody or miscreants wey cause wahala for my state here na die get am sha. we are ready until after the election.

UnimkeAk:


Dullllard !!!!!!
You don't even know how to read and comprehend

mtchww...keep abusing me bros..it is well with you

Why don't you tell us that Tinubu will win the whole north ... Atuku will win Kaduna, Katsina, akwa ibom. You are very much right in Yobe and Zamfara state. Kano votes will be heavily splitted,no candidate will go away with 1m votes.

Here in SW , Atiku will surely claim 25% in every states. Infact he might go away with some states like Osun, my own state , Oyo and maybe Ondo. I don't see how Tinubu can have 60% in Lagos

2loadedguy:

This is very lazy analysis and does not capture existing realities in his analysis. Atiku will not win in yobe, zamfara, cross river, Akwa ibom, Edo, benue, kano, katsina, Imo and kaduna.
Yobe and zamfara have always been Apc states and yobe has a fellow kanuri man on the ballot in shettima. As bad as Buhari is, if he raises Tinubus hand up in Kano, kaduna,katsina and zamfara then it will become a no go area. Benue and the entire north central will be evenly split between the 3 candidates while the whole of SS and SE is going to obi this time.
The only State sure for Atiku in that list is adamawa and even Tinubu will share the spoils there.

frank14011991:
which igbo man form PDP

Dr Alex ekweme brought the parties the 5 parties that formed PDP

Aiel123:

Hey man...
AA will trounce Obi in the SW while Kwankwaso will take third in the core north... nothing for Obi here.

Benue,plateau says hi

Truthisunique2:
you sit down with phone dey share "your own"

Na historical voting pattern we dey talk here not emotions

When Atiku wins I know una go begin add mouth how una contributed massively

No be only historical voting pattern, for some reason you guys feel Northerners will vote Atiku their own but Easter will leave Obi and vote Atiku...Una dey ment true true...no be only historical...

I am not one of those that will just declare Obi winner, I no be God..he might or might not win, but Obi will get nothing less than 80% in all southeast states, and nothing less than 60% or more in all south south States, I no dey follow anybody argue.

Going by your historical jagon, you should have known that the south South and south east always vote the candidate they feel is closest to them and their values, hence OBJ and not Buhari, Yaradua which was a moderate muslim and not Buhari, Good luck and not Buhari, Atiku and not Buhari cos Atiku was seen as the most moderate of the 2, you see where I am going with this??... Then in this ticket they have their son and brother in the case of south south who is not only competent but has capacity...

Widely accept across board among the youth population and some of Una dey speak English. I dey laugh.

I no dey follow anybody drag northern states even though I know he is widely popular in the middle belt.

He should remove delta state from.the list..nah Obi get Delta state...Igbo. people wey dey Delta state go vote for Obi....but he can get Bayelsa state...

VTJN:
Atiku will also win some state in South East

like cassava state and Dubai State

But I want to ask a question.

Doesn't PDP have the best chance of 24% in 24 states since they are strong everywhere.

Even with the OBI movement .let's say he wins all states in SE and SS which is impossible. PDP can still get 25% from the 11 states there.

Come to North East, where atiku is from the can still get 25% in those 6 states. That's already 17. In north central, they can also get 25%.

Not even talking about North West and South West where they are strong.

So doesn't that give them the election.

I think they can get 25% in almost 30 states.

So

mrvitalis:

I be mbaise boy , emeka is my brother ,my family are founding members of PDP from 1998 till date

Bros if emeka win is polling unit in mbutu come collect 50k
.Infact if atiku gets 25% in emeka polling unit not this ward ooh his polling unit come collect 25%

PDP think Igbos are fools

Igbo man formed PDP na we go scatter am last last

be calming down, election are not won in social media nor in campaign rally. We have more than 60% illiterate voters, this goes in long way in choosing our leaders.

yomi961:



My brothers, don't be annoyed. There is what we call passion and there is what we call emotion. It's a big different thing for those of you who went to school like me. I went to school, you also went to school.

Emotions don't win elections. You must be realistic to win elections.You must plan to succeed and that is where I belong



To face a national assembly filled with PDP and APC members who will frustrate the hell out of him till he joins either one of their parties.

Presidents don't work in a vaccum. If you are shouting vote Peter Obi, without also working for the victory of Labour Party in the senate, house of reps and governorship as well as state assemblies, you might as well be wasting your vote.

That is how Balarable Musa, governor of old Kaduna state and PRP man, thought he could run the state with NPN members. Till they showed him pepper....

All I see here is blabbing, come out plain, I want to hear you. This is not 1981 when the man was impeached easily. Impeachment of president is a big mountain to climb and not easy as you think. It doesn't start and end in hallowed chamber, go and read procedure to impeach president, very cumbersome, unlike impeaching state governor.

mrvitalis:

Dr Alex ekweme brought the parties the 5 parties that formed PDP

which Alex ekwueme and he couldn't defeat obasanjo twice at the primaries, adamu chiroma, Abubakar rimi and the retired generals we're the real founding fathers of PDP

Gombe, Taraba, Nasarawa, Niger, Benue, Plateau??

Seriously is this madness?

Asgard73:
They will doubt and attack ..

By February..

Some go dey cry rigging..

Others go dey celebrate ..

While some will kill themselves and share their meat

Atiku has no opposition

Na small time e remain..

Power to the people
North 2023

E too sure

Hope those with million Nairaland likes and share will convert it to hard currency

Let Atiku win his party first before winning some states far from the north because I've never seen any successful candidate that did not unite and win his party members first before winning the election since 1999 till date.

Trinitycian:


https://twitter.com/BolanleCole/status/1576929041357029376?t=WWlyFDxDqLD_CAnZAjtECQ&s=19

Oloye, you made mistake ooo, nor be 20 States, na the 55 States in Nigeria, and him go get 120% for all the States, including Abuja. Ode'

Igbos no just sabi politics Obituary will win Oyo,Ondo Who do you people have there. I thought osun last election should have taught you guys some lessons.

Eriokanmi:
You didn't add Kaduna, Datti-Baba Ahmed home state? Mark today, Obi will win Lagos,Oyo and Ondo states. 2023 will be full of surprises

Who sabi Obituary for yoruba land. Even small bottom dey shake

2loadedguy:

He's right, Atiku will not come second in South west and you can put your money. Obi Wil come second in any state Tinubu does not win here. Infact, obi will drag Lagos with Tinubu.

Atiku ✅
Atiku anyday, anytime.

g4gerald:

The fact dat Tinubu is from lagos doesn't mean he will win in lagos. Na igbo pple full lagos o, even the yoruba christians there don't like his candidacy

Don’t bank on Yoruba Christians vote, they are Yorubas first before religion and may disappoint you, so let their vote come as a surprise.

Upworkwriter007:
Atiku cannot win Niger. As in, impossibility. The state is literally a one-party state right now.

How so Sir

I think you should rather say they won through the court but not through the ballot. We learn everyday son shoti gbo bayen

naijapips04:


Olodo APC won IMO state plus they got hundreds of thousands of votes.

Obi will never be president.
Its either Atiku or Tinubu.

Eriokanmi:
You didn't add Kaduna, Datti-Baba Ahmed home state? Mark today, Obi will win Lagos,Oyo and Ondo states. 2023 will be full of surprises

Datti won't win Kaduna for Labor and Obi will not win Lagos cos of massive rigging and disenfranchisement of Igbos and Southsouth voters

You are neophyte to Kano politics. Kano politics is on a tripod. The three dominant party have one each.

AminuRano87:


Atiku cannot win Kano, Kwankwaso will win Kano and Tinubu will come second because of the governor, Atiku will come third in Kano. Because PDP doesn't have structure in Kano, most of Kano politicians are in APC and NNPP

Lwkmd

Troublemaker111:
You are neophyte to Kano politics. Kano politics is on a tripod. The three dominant party have one each.

you dey follow person argue with him state.i am in kano, PDP Stands no chance in kano.its between APC and nnpp

franchasofficia:
Atiku will win:


Adamawa
Kano (very small margin)
Gombe
Jigawa (small margin)
Sokoto
Yobe (small margin)
Zamfara
Kaduna (small margin)



But with very small margins.



Tinubu will win:

Katsina (small margin)
Borno
Kogi
Kwara
Lagos (small margin)
Osun
Ogun
Ekiti
Oyo
Ondo (small margin)



Peter Obi will win:


Anambra
Imo
Abia
Enugu
Ebonyi
Edo
Rivers
Cross Rivers
Akwa Ibom
Delta
Benue
Plateau (small margin)
Taraba (small margin)
Abuja
Bayelsa

This analysis is fairer but you're missing out Bauchi and Kebbi which I see Atiku winning.

I can speak for my state, he is not going to win here, BENUE state. Benue is highly obidient.