garfield1:


Wamakko tried for aliyu.they were allegations that the sultan and others begged him to allow wamakko.during the rerun,a lot of votes were cancelled and aliyu won that rerun.compare him to dankwambo who won his reelection heavil
y against goje's candidate in 2015.there has been a lot of defections from tambuwal LGA and even nearby kebbe LGA.you can't use that to judge.even daura has witnessed defections...sokoto will alwats bw tight for presidential

garfield1:


That will be the deciders

Corridon:
I still ask where Tinubu will get his votes from?

lhordspy:
Fake-news man is back. All news no pictures

casualobserver:
Before you start getting excited

1) We all know Tinubu will lose some Northern votes because a) Buhari is no longer on the ballot and b) Atiku is on the ballot.

The questions are

1) Who are Northern APC votes going to and the answer is Atiku not Obi.
2) Are the votes Atiku is picking up from Tinubu in the North enough to make up for the votes he is losing to OBi in the SE and SS? IMHO the answer is no!!!

Finally is sokoto an APC stronghold? The answer is no. In 2019 APC only got 490k votes in sokoto compared to 1.4m in Kano, 1.2m in Katsina, 830k in Borno, 1m in Kaduna, 800k In Bauchi. Considering Somoto is Tambuwal territory losing a ward or 2 is no big deal. Apc even got 120k more votes in Niger than Sokoto…. Despite the 490k votes from sokoto to ApC in 2019, the net contribution (which is what really matters) of sokoto to Buhari’s victory in 2019 was only 130k votes!!! For context Borno’s net vote contribution in 2029 was 790k and katsina was 1m NET votes. Net votes I.e the gap between you and your opponents is what matters!! Even Kebbi’s net vote contribution to APc in 2019 was MORE than twice that of Sokoto. Sokoto (130k net) only contributed about 3% to Buhari’s net margin of victory (over 4m votes) in 2019 So don’t over dramatize things.

I have said it many times. Those who understand the importance of net victory/loss and truly understand election mathematics know that this election will be won in states where you control 70% and above of the votes. Most states, the votes will be shared with inconsequential net gains or losses that will cancel each other out. It is states like Borno where Asiwaju will get 90% of 1m votes for example that will determine the results of the election not states where the difference between winner and loser is 150k or less votes. If you are sharing votes, you are not in the race, if you don’t have states that will give you 500k plus net votes, you are not in the race. I have said it many times but people don’t understand, you can lose 7 states and make it up with 1 state where you control 90% of the votes!!!! 50% of the gap between Buhari and Atiku came from just 3 states katsina, Borno and Kebbi. I have not mentioned Kano with contributed another 25% because Kano is up in the air. When you start hearing of defections in Borno, katsina or Kebbi, let us know until then no shaking!!!!

Headlines sells but everything in its proper context!! When people start to defect in Katsina and Borno let us know

Trinitycian:
APC sai mun bata wuta...

Wisetrue99:

From MC Oluomo and his boys

They are the ones he empowered

obembet:


U should worry about peter obi not Tinubu, cos both of them will lose.

Power must remain in North

lhordspy:
Fake-news man is back. All news no pictures

iheanacho8v:
APC is dead in Sokoto..Garfield1, , Nlfpmod, this is front page worthyAPC is dead in Sokoto..Garfield1, , Nlfpmod, this is front page worthy...

Aiel123:

U sure?
Everywhere is up for grabs...this bvas issues has given a lot of hope and momentum to opposition parties oo.

garfield1:


True and untrue.you yourself said pdp doesn't exist in those states.while the bvas might reduce votes inflation,states where one party dominates will still go to that party.bvas won't make apc get 30% in delta north and pdp cant get anything reasonable in borno

Aiel123:

Kebbe is APC body and soul...
On your last point,We share the same view.

Prince111111:
from Isale Oyo in Iragbiji ofcos

garfield1:


I like your objectivity.yesterday one person in agbor was saying obi will win agbor.I kept quiet and before you knew it,pdp came up with a massive rally.
Both apc and pdp are very strong in all the 23 lgas of sokoto even in tambuwal and wamakko.it will be very tight.even buhari struggled to win sokoto in 2019.he lost there in 2007.apart from Kaduna,sokoto is the other northwestern state that gives buhari issues.few months ago,two LGA chairmen and councillors defected to apc.it has been defection galore,both parties are using defections to compete and they will still lose more between now and Feb...
Wamakko should win sokoto north for tinubu,tambuwal should win south for atiku.it will now boil down to sokoto east.gobir in 2019 won 6 out of the 8 lgas here.he lost his LGA sabon birni and lost isa but won gada where the pdp candidate is from.it means sabon birni is dominated by pdp.he is now the senate majority leader and has been there since 2011.I dont know who pdp fielded but its between maidaji and mukhtar magori who are no match for senator gobir.so sokoto east will decide who wins sokoto...
As you said,kebbi is apc.the defection of sen aliero gave pdp some hope.let's see how it goes

Ebubu:
ASUU will be rejoicing and praying APC loses so that CONUA will die

Not knowing Atiku said he will privatise universities

Na so one Alhaji Dankwambo will become your proprietor and the letter head of your employment letter will read

Emir of Zazzau palace, no more Ministry of Education


Anytime you strike, e go just sack you like in private universities
ASUU are in hot SUUp

Trinitycian:
APC sai mun bata wuta...

DAwest7:
or orita Alabiamo In Iragbiji

lhordspy:
Fake-news man is back. All news no pictures

JoeNL22:

Lol.....exactly.

SE & SS is for obi
The SW is divided between obi and Tinubu
The NC Christians will vote obi
The NC Muslims will divide their votes between Atiku and Tinubu.
No southerner has ever won the core north (NE & NW)
Check 1999-2019 election results. That's why Atiku is not bothered.
No southerner will vote Atiku after Buhari's abysmal performance.

Where will Tinubu get his votes.........



The south will never forget what Tinubu did to them in 2015. The north will forever remain loyal to their region/people. We saw it in obj and Jonathan time.
Tinubu has been deceived!

Corridon:
You've proved that you are indeed a Fulani slave. You shout down on people campaigning for southern candidates and you claim to be from pH. Shame on you. I won't take you serious again.

Aiel123:

Which Wamakko?
The one that said Tambuwal took the greatest mistake of his life by defecting to PDP?
Or the one that said he'll deliver sokoto for Tinubu?
But failed to installed Aliyu who was Tambuwal's deputy...
This LGA,Sabon Birni,is the home of Aliyu's running mate,Hon.Gobir..
Just a little remainder, Tambuwal won here same as Isa LGA in 2019( Isa/ Sabon Birni federal constituency)
And is also the LGA of Sagir Bafarawa,the PDP's candidate running mate ( Isa).
Do you know Wamakko won only his LGA for Aliyu in his senatorial district and lost the rest to Tambuwal?