FORECAST OF 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION (thread)

Did same in 2019. This is not a poll but a forecast based on knowledge of Nigerian politics as an active follower and observer of about 30 years, interactions with people across Nigeria, feeling the pulse of the street etc.

TURNOUT

Turnout is projected at average of 41%, higher than national average of 30% - 35% in previous election cycles since PVC was introduced

PVC COLLECTION

INEC has not released final PVC collection list (they should release few days to election), but from info pieced together, it is estimated to be 12% higher than 2019 actual PVC collection list.

PREDICTED RESULT

It’s a 2 horse race

A very keen contest between AA and BAT.

BAT predicted to win with less than N1m votes, but an AA victory will not be a surprise given the vagary of assumptions.

There is no path to PO victory

Throwback:
It is too late in the day for any candidate to rely on opportunism.

This election has already been won and lost before some decided to seek easy presidential tickets that is a symptom of our weak political system.

I give it to Bola Tinubu also.

Ahuitzotl:
Jarus and his associates in NL have always being thiefffnubu 's urchins thus it's very important for them likewise thiefffnubu to keep the narrative firmly on a two horse race containing him and Atiku disregarding 'ursupers' who are running away with the limelight thus stealing thiefffnubu's thunder, this snub albeit an error that's big enough to throw a spanner at their permutations can be likened to an Ostrich hiding it's head in the sand and ignoring a problem in hopes of it going away on its own because to be honestly speaking for the urchins and agbadorians,it's quite annoying that at this critical stage of the campaign season, thiefffnubu's brand is still trapped under the quagmire and shadow of 'the ursupers', quite frightening that this spectre of an ursuper is translating his popularity to actual foots on the ground,street credibility,and soon enough,thumbs on ballot papers even at their own backyard........And there still sits Atiku and his northern hordes.

Racoon:
Let see how urchins and miscreants will not accept or be calling this senseless projection that narrowed a so called presidential contest to a 2-horse race.They will accept it and not claim elections are never won on social media. Bloody nauseating hypocrites.

Racoon:
Let see how urchins and miscreants will not accept or be calling this senseless projection that narrowed a so called presidential contest to a 2-horse race.They will accept it and not claim elections are never won on social media. Bloody nauseating hypocrites.

ASAPFERG1:
nothing for OBIora

hedonido:
Of course I knew this tribalistic old creep would go round and round only to mouth off a BAT victory. Forecast my ass.

Dsalvo:


Even excusing the uncouth language, my suggestion is that you get rid of the blue fonts so that folks may actually be interested in reading what you write instead of dismissing you as an attention-seeker.

Obinoscopy:
Naptu2, this projection is false. The reason is that it is using the mentality of a two party race. But this isn't a two party race. This is a four party race. So it's a complex race.

Anyone who dismisses LP and NNPP in this race is simply not in tune with the complexity of this current race. LP has a stronghold in the SS, SE and parts of NC and NE. NNPC holds supreme in parts of NW. This unbalances lots of political equations.

Anyways, the election is weeks away. I'll bookmark this thread and comment on it later after the results are out..

Ahuitzotl:
And how's my bluey your business? All these thiefffnubu urchins sef..mtcheww...

Ahuitzotl:
And how's my bluey your business? All these thiefffnubu urchins and BaTstards sef..mtcheww...

tinsel:

You have too much anger stored inside you.

tinsel:

That forecast is the best so far if you can tell yourself the honest truth.

naijapips04:


This is the most balanced. Infact it was very generous to Peter obi. I don't see obi winning more than 2 states max