Obinoscopy:
Naptu2, this projection is false. The reason is that it is using the mentality of a two party race. But this isn't a two party race. This is a four party race. So it's a complex race.

Anyone who dismisses LP and NNPP in this race is simply not in tune with the complexity of this current race. LP has a stronghold in the SS, SE and parts of NC and NE. NNPC holds supreme in parts of NW. This unbalances lots of political equations.

Anyways, the election is weeks away. I'll bookmark this thread and comment on it later after the results are out..

Boss mi, I hail Sir.



Back to the topic.....
Counting Obi and Kwankwanso out is laughable.
Peter obi has a clear chance, all he needs is massive turn out of voters in the South, this election will prove many people wrong.

Obinoscopy:
Duly noted. I have bookmarked your post and will reply you after the results are out.

check the person doing the analysis..Yoruba moslem tinubu supporter

others used polls, this one now used assumptions for his/her analysis to project a winner...

Ajibam:



Boss mi, I hail Sir.



Back to the topic.....
Counting Obi and Kwankwanso out is laughable.
Peter obi has a clear chance, all he needs is massive turn out of voters in the South, this election will prove many people wrong.

Nobody around Tinubu tells him the truth because they see him as a fool and cash cow they will milk dry before elections…I only pity Lagos state treasury that will have to deal with massive debts and empty treasury by the second quarter of this year

Atiku Abubakar will win the February 25th presidential poll cos’ the Bvas will check out rigging in next week Saturday poll. All this online poll never work again. Ask how they predicted last year governorship Election in Osun State stating Oyetola an incumbent governor will win the July 16th governorship poll then, at last their various polls was wrong cos’ the electorates prove them wrong. People come out enmass and cast their votes for governor Ademola Adeleke on the Election Day. The same scenario will happen next week Saturday presidential poll. With the bad governance of Buhari in Nigeria political system of government, It will affect Tinubu presidential candidacy. For me it’s 2 horse race and Atiku Abubakar from the north east region of Nigeria wins the presidential poll. Atiku Abubakar has inherit Buhari bloc votes in the north. The northern electorates preferred Atiku Abubakar than Tinubu in the poll. All the best in the next week Saturday presidential poll.

Curse, bitterness and anger from a particular section will not change anything. However, i am still unable to understand the cause of this anger and bitterness toward one person. Yes, he helped Buhari defeat an adopted son. Niger Deltas and Jonathan have moved on. South south as a whole has moved. Why are people not actually involved still bitter? This is my concern.

aariwa:
Agbado analysis …they try to sound intelligent and neutral at first and then descend into gutter immediately like pigs they are…Tinubu lost the election the day he schemed out Osibanjo and still went to humiliate Christians further with Muslim Muslim ticket while under delusion he will inherit buhari votes..na BVAS and pvc go talk sense into you delusionists parading the elule man that’s not even aware of his surroundings. Paul biya will never happen to Nigeria.God forbid cursed bad thing

that’s just the fact here. Atiku Abubakar will win the presidential poll. You can see the way ffk and Festus Keyamo are wailing on the media this days ahead of the election. Tinubu will be heavily shamed and disgrace in the next Saturday election cos’ there will be massive turnout of voters on the Election Day. I’m only congratulating Atiku Abubakar in advance.

Obinoscopy:
Naptu2, this projection is false. The reason is that it is using the mentality of a two party race. But this isn't a two party race. This is a four party race. So it's a complex race.

Anyone who dismisses LP and NNPP in this race is simply not in tune with the complexity of this current race. LP has a stronghold in the SS, SE and parts of NC and NE. NNPC holds supreme in parts of NW. This unbalances lots of political equations.

Anyways, the election is weeks away. I'll bookmark this thread and comment on it later after the results are out..

It just narrows the win margins. Doesn't flip anything.

Buhari had to combine his regular 12m votes with the Southwest and North Central to unseat a sitting president.

You think Kwankwaso and Obi have 12m votes standby somewhere and an additional 4m votes via alliances to flip the elections for them? If anything the opposition is fragmented and it's Tinubu's election to lose.

I can see him comfortably win by 2m votes.

What a lot of you are skipping is the fact that the Presidential elections holds same time with National Assembly elections. A lot of Nigerian voters are illiterates and the House of Rep and Senatortial candidates would be working to ensure that people just thumbprint their parties on the ballots. We saw this affect a lot of PDP senators and HOR in 2015 with Buhari helping a lot of less popular candidates sweep National Assembly elections. I definitely won't be out there telling my supporters to select ballots and vote whoever they want for presidency and vote my party for national assembly. So a lot of votes would still follow the same patterns in most areas. Parties with strongholds would win their strongholds.

More Cosmopolitan areas or the Southwest and south east might slightly variate but that's standard practice.

Turn out has always hovered around 39% . Even with increased participation we can see maybe a 7 to 10% increase but that still doesn't guarantee a win for the opposition. If anything. Atiku has had a large chunk of his SS/SE votes taken by LP. LP hasn't been able to successfully make inroads into the North where the large chunk of votes is. Kwankwaso has always had votes in Kano/Jigawa and don't discount that Ganduje is incumbent and also has his followers and should be able to get Tinubu at least 30%.

This prediction is much more realistic than the rubbish Anap/oi were putting forward. As usual Social media without the street work is not reality and you would see that is much reinforced this election.

Obinoscopy:
Naptu2, this projection is false. The reason is that it is using the mentality of a two party race. But this isn't a two party race. This is a four party race. So it's a complex race.

Anyone who dismisses LP and NNPP in this race is simply not in tune with the complexity of this current race. LP has a stronghold in the SS, SE and parts of NC and NE. NNPC holds supreme in parts of NW. This unbalances lots of political equations.

Anyways, the election is weeks away. I'll bookmark this thread and comment on it later after the results are out..

Oga, I no know say you still dey Nairaland o

hedonido:


One has to be mentally disturbed to project a BAT victory when it is clear the man has zero appeal to the average non Yoruba voter. I don't understand you pseudo-'enlightened' creeps.

Who would vote for someone like this really? At least Buhari had his unassailable 'integrity' selling point that guaranteed him votes from the entire North to the South West. What does BAT have that would give him votes outside the South West? Is it his drug dealing reputation, extreme corruption, dubious personality and background, obvious signs of age and drug induced dementia and mental degradation, or what exactly? Or you're merely expecting his 'structures' to buy votes, coerce votes or manipulate votes? If this is the expectation, shouldn't you lot be ashamed of yourselves and hide your faces in shame rather than insult our sensibilities with stupid forecasts?

How do you win an election when you are not popular on the strength of your own personality with the average voter across geopolitical divides?

Even the best of you in spite of your intellectual pretentions haven't been able to explain how it would be possible for a discredited and obnoxious entity like BAT to inspire the votes of the average non Yoruba Nigerian. Instead you're relying on magic from compromised governors. Just makes no sense. That's why I'm disappointed that old folks like Naptu or Jarus can't hide their jaundiced faces rather than come out in the open to display weakly disguised Yoruba awalokan motivated nonsense.

Shame on you all.

The projection is based on intelligent analysis and not on a single person parochial views. Only political novice think that everybody votes candidates and not party.

chinchum:
This is very close to my projection.

In my released state by state analysis on nairaland last week. I projected over 12 million for APC, 11million for PDP and over 6.5 million for labour party.

Over 6m for labour, you are very generous!

naijapips04:


This is the most balanced. Infact it was very generous to Peter obi. I don't see obi winning more than 2 states max

FUNNY URCHINS, TYPING NONSENSE.

NEVERMIND I WILL COME BACK TO THBIS POST TO LAUGH AND INSULT. YOU WHEN OBI EITHER WINS OR COMES SECOND.

In a free and fair contest, the race is going to be between AA and BAT with AA having an upper hand. AA's calmness is something to be studied despite all the noise from the rest candidate
In a rigged contest, AA and BAT still having their chance with BAT winning
PO just parted his way into popularity so 2027 is going to be a though one

I've bookmarked this thread and will come back to it on the 26th. People don't understand that the dynamics of this presidential election is very different. You want to dismiss someone that has completed campaign over 36 states even before the so called structured people. I also like the fact that you guy keep assuming that a lot of Nigerians are uneducated and can't tell the difference between logos forgetting that by each year the that some of these so called mama and papa illiterates have children in their houses that are LP supporters and are doing their job. Aside from the some bigoted yorubas, Apc party card carrying members nationwide which amounts to less than 1% of the population and some
northerners who feel like they need to thank Bat for giving them Buhari and those who are currently benefitting from the rot or hope to benefit from the rot, who is going to vote for a senile tout and a drug lord? Keep chasing dreams and shadows.

Obinoscopy:
Naptu2, this projection is false. The reason is that it is using the mentality of a two party race. But this isn't a two party race. This is a four party race. So it's a complex race.

Anyone who dismisses LP and NNPP in this race is simply not in tune with the complexity of this current race. LP has a stronghold in the SS, SE and parts of NC and NE. NNPC holds supreme in parts of NW. This unbalances lots of political equations.

Anyways, the election is weeks away. I'll bookmark this thread and comment on it later after the results are out..

Lol

It is a president not governorship or senatorial election. NNPP and LP doesn't have the national spread to defeat APC nor PDP

25% votes in at least 24 states

Ahuitzotl:
Jarus and his crew in NL have always being thiefffnubu 's urchins thus it's very important for them likewise thiefffnubu to keep the narrative firmly on a two horse race containing him and Atiku disregarding Him that is running away with the limelight thus stealing thiefffnubu's thunder. This apparent snub, albeit an error that's big enough to throw a spanner at their permutations, can be likened to an Ostrich hiding it's head in the sand and ignoring a problem in hopes of it going away on its own because to be honestly speaking for the urchins and agbadorians,it's quite annoying that at this critical stage of the campaign season, thiefffnubu's brand is still trapped under the quagmire and shadow of Him, quite frightening that this spectre of an entity called Him is translating his popularity to actual foots on the ground,street credibility,and soon enough,thumbs on ballot papers even at their own backyard........And there still sits Atiku and his northern hordes.

ALL THESE HUNGRY ILITERATE TINUBU SUPPORTERS ARE CRYING SO EARLY IN THE MORNING.
THEY ARE NOW COMPARING JARUS TO BLOOMBERG ANPP AND OTHER POLLE ALL BECAUSE OTHER WORLD WIDE KNOWN POLLS SAID TINUBU ISNT EVENNIN THE RACE 🤣🤣🤣🤣

SEE PAIN

DO T MIND THE HUNGRY WRETCHED IDIOTS.

THESE THIGS ARE FED BY TINUBU. THEY ARE POOR HUNGRY PEOPLE WHOM NEED HIS CRUMNS TO SURVIVE 🤣🤣🤣🤣

I mean their kids will be at home or under the bridge if Tinubu doesn't credit their account . They are too stupid to think up a legit hustle but to spread propaganda 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

Imagine the idiot jarus calling this rubbish a forecast 🤣🤣🤣

They have nothing to offer Tinubu but propaganda and lies..they don't want to tell Baba the truth that he has been rejected everywhere 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

Imagine calling this 3 horse race a 2 horse race? It was at that point I stopped reading this trash 🤣🤣🤣🤣

hedonido:


One has to be mentally disturbed to project a BAT victory when it is clear the man has zero appeal to the average non Yoruba voter. I don't understand you pseudo-'enlightened' creeps.

Who would vote for someone like this really? At least Buhari had his unassailable 'integrity' selling point that guaranteed him votes from the entire North to the South West. What does BAT have that would give him votes outside the South West? Is it his drug dealing reputation, extreme corruption, dubious personality and background, obvious signs of age and drug induced dementia and mental degradation, or what exactly? Or you're merely expecting his 'structures' to buy votes, coerce votes or manipulate votes? If this is the expectation, shouldn't you lot be ashamed of yourselves and hide your faces in shame rather than insult our sensibilities with stupid forecasts?

How do you win an election when you are not popular on the strength of your own personality with the average voter across geopolitical divides?

Even the best of you in spite of your intellectual pretentions haven't been able to explain how it would be possible for a discredited and obnoxious entity like BAT to inspire the votes of the average non Yoruba Nigerian. Instead you're relying on magic from compromised governors. Just makes no sense. That's why I'm disappointed that old folks like Naptu or Jarus can't hide their jaundiced faces rather than come out in the open to display weakly disguised Yoruba awalokan motivated nonsense.

Shame on you all.

You get sense but you need someone to teach you how to use it rightly. Ignore hatred and be civilized in your manner of reason so you can see beyond a common man.

Nigeria get settings and arrangements. Na sensible and intelligent people across the whole country dey in charge.. No be people like you who could not manage the nonsense bloodshed happening around your candidate's region.

Please don't make your parents unhappy and unlucky for having you

naptu2:


https://twitter.com/SirJarus/status/1624512634333671424

ANOTHER PAID STATISTICIAN

GO COLLECT YOUR BALANCE

JOB WELL DONE

naptu2:


3458877443

It is a good analysis that SirJarus has there, but I still think it is Atiku's to lose (and he did allow for the possiblity)

BAT cannot separate himself from Buhari right now. And the last 8 years of 'not so good perfromance'..plus Buhari is not on the ballot, and his geng are not too sure whether to vote APC or another thing.

Obi and Kwankwaso, I do not expect them to do well, but having said that, surprises can happen. At best, I expect them to drain off votes from AA and the BAT to force a runoff between the two, with Obi and Kwankwaso both supporting AA in any possible runoff. (They were all together in PDP once).

muykem:
The projection is based on intelligent analysis and not on a single person parochial views. Only political novice think that everybody votes candidates and not party.

You are actually behavin g like a fool just to drive home your point.

Take a look at what you wrote here.

Anyways just the way it is foolish to argue with a buharists, it also foolish to argue with an URCHIN. keep claiming that OBI will win only anambra l.

And that BUHARI didn't use the ticket of INTEGRITY to win Votes across geopolitical Zone, and also that BAT will benefit from the old ticket of INTEGRITY Buhari used

MondayOsunbor:



ANOTHER PAID STATISTICIAN

GO COLLECT YOUR BALANCE

JOB WELL DONE

Don't mind the useless hungry dirty things who are of no value but to create fake stats or fake propaganda 🤣🤣🤣🤣

They haven't see the writing on the wall


THIS ERA OF PROPAGANDA HAS PASSED THE PEOPLE ARE TIED AND HAVE REJECTED TINUBU

naptu2:
Sir J (J9) @SirJarus



https://twitter.com/SirJarus/status/1624512572413120517

E go do una like magic...where would the North allow the old thief to win this election.

What a shambles of a forecast

Ahuitzotl:
And how's my bluey your business? All these thiefffnubu urchins and BaTstards sef..mtcheww...

you're nothing but attention seeker

You crave for attention with baseless point of view

Some people are still trapped in 2019 while we are in 2023.
Anyway, thread bookmarked.
Hope this Jarus guy will not delete his account by 26th February

Jarus has a history of being correct in his analysis.

Buksaylor:


E go do una like magic...where would the North allow the old thief to win this election.

The north will not want Atiku to win because they know it'd take them another 16 years to come back to power. Especially the ruling party

Tinubu victory is an easy route to their own presidency in 8 years time

Politics isn't about emotions, tribe or religion but INTEREST

Politicians are not like an average Nigerians who put emotions into play. Politicians are more realistic couple with interest

KWANKWASO will get more than 7 million votes across northwest states, and win KANO confirmed.

I will dash you airtime, please book now mark this.

You BATstards think that even the Hausa villagers who supported Buhari based on integrity will not support kwankwaso for same reasons.

Your Candidate has nothing to sell, either integrity or whatever outside YORUBA territory.

OBI and KWANKWASO are extremely selling CREDIBILITY, in a country that is under Economic crises. And you. Are here stupidly saying KWANKWASO wont get up to 7 million and Obi won't get more than 12 million.


I don't know who will win, but the way you guys are down playing KWANKWASO and OBI, shows you guys are less than humans and would be worse than BUHARISTS in reasoning