(SUCCINCT IMAGES BELOW 👇)

If you look at the raw bantupage poll percentages it would seem like none of the candidates have any realistic path to the spread. However most of their state polls have huge amount of undecided/undisclosed votes.

What if we removed these undecided/undisclosed voters and readjusted the percentages based on just the figures for LP, APC, PDP and NNPP?

I decided to do it myself to see what the results would look like and I have some beautiful images to show you:

Image 5) shows the raw bantupage poll results as well as the adjusted percentages when we exclude undisclosed/undecided voters. Note that Ondo, Cross Rivers, Delta, Edo and Akwa Ibom were polled twice.

Image 4) shows approximated adjusted results when we combine the results for the states that were polled twice and divide by two. Note that bantupage does not release the number of people polled in each time so this blindly assumes that the same number of people were polled each time. Due to approximation, summation of all the state percentages won't always add up to exactly 100 for every state but it should be close

image 3) snake chart showing the path to the spread for PDP.

Image 2) snake chart showing the path to the spread for APC.

Image 1) snake chart showing the path to the spread for LP.

NOTE: Bantupage didn't poll Zamfara so I have attributed 0% to LP, 50% to PDP and 50% to APC based on common perception about the voting pattern of the state

Bantupage poll is here https://bantupage.com/breaking-down-bantupages-december-2022-and-january-2023-poll/

.

Key takeaways according to these adjusted results:

- None of the candidates hit the spread despite adjustment to remove undecided/undisclosed but LP/Obi was the closest with 22 states as well as FCT

- LP have the most number of states where they are extremely unlikely to get 25% (dark red states). But they also seem to have the best chance of hitting the spread as they just missed it in Gombe and Kwara

- APC have the least number of states where they are extremely unlikely to get 25% (dark red states). Tinubu got the second highest spread with 18 states (including the unpolled Zamfara).

- PDP only hit the spread in 3 states in the south (Osun, Oyo and Bayelsa). Atiku had the lowest spread out of the main three candidates

- APC and PDP missed the spread in FCT. They need to hit 25% in FCT to be able to win in the first ballot


Edit to add more takeaways:

- There is one state where LP hit 25% in this adjusted poll but where Jonathan got less than 25% in 2015: Niger State. Atiku only got 25.59% there in 2019. LP's support could be overrated here

- There are 4 states where Jonathan hit 25% in 2015 but LP got less than 25% in this adjusted poll: Kwara, Osun, Oyo, Adamawa.

- Jonathan got 19% in Zamfara in 2015. Bantupage didn't poll Zamfara.

- Atiku hit 25% in 2019 in all the states that LP also hit 25% in this adjusted poll. Atiku is still on the ballot this time around

Places where this poll is giving LP significantly higher percentages than Jonathan in 2015:
- Benue +27.6
- Plateau +26.61
- Niger +22.64
- Edo +21.08
- FCT +17.51
- Nassarawa +11.93

That is 4 NC states plus FCT and Edo. The poll is clearly hinting at an Obidient movement in the middle belt.


Cc:
Digitron
Penguin2
Eriokanmi
Garfield1
Nlfpmod
Seun
Trollronaldo

With Peter Obi's candidacy, this is truly a great time for Nigerians.

wegevv:
Key takeaways according to these adjusted results:

- None of the candidates hit the spread despite adjustment to remove undecided/undisclosed but LP/Obi was the closest with 22 states as well as FCT

- LP have the most number of states where they are extremely unlikely to get 25% (dark red states). But they also seem to have the best chance of hitting the spread as they just missed it in Gombe and Kwara

- APC have the least number of states where they are extremely unlikely to get 25% (dark red states). Tinubu got the second highest spread with 18 states (including the unpolled Zamfara).

- PDP only hit the spread in 2 states in the south (Osun, Oyo and Bayelsa). Atiku had the lowest spread out of the main three candidates

- APC and PDP missed the spread in FCT. They need to hit 25% in FCT to be able to win in the first ballot

Cc:
Digitron
Penguin2
Eriokanmi
Garfield1
Nlfpmod
Seun

Getting the spread in fct is not important.what the law says is 25 states factoring in fct

Obi will win on the first ballot.
A new Nigeria is POssible

Peter Obi will get the mandate of the beleaguered citizens of this nation.

Very similar to my projections; I also predicted 22 states where LP is likely to get 25% of votes. Only difference is that I didnt include Niger and Kogi but included Oyo and Osun.

garfield1:


Getting the spread in fct is not important.what the law says is 25 states factoring in fct

Do you have a source? This seems to be an issue of contention and an INEC official failed to answer the question when asked on channels last month. I'll try find the video later.

The constitution says:

If the candidate gets a majority of “yes” over “no” votes cast in the election and at
least a quarter of votes cast in at least 24 States and the Federal Capital Territory.

The straightforward interpretation of that line means that the candidate needs 25% in 24 states and also needs 25% in FCT. But it can also be interpreted the way you have done.

Someone else asked this question here https://www.nairaland.com/7443122/question-constitutional-requirement-presidential-election

wegevv:


Do you have a source? This seems to be an issue of contention and an INEC official failed to answer the question when asked on channels last month. I'll try find the video later.

The constitution says:

If the candidate gets a majority of “yes” over “no” votes cast in the election and at
least a quarter of votes cast in at least 24 States and the Federal Capital Territory.

The straightforward interpretation of that line means that the candidate needs 25% in 24 states and also needs 25% in FCT. But it can also be interpreted the way you have done.

Someone else asked this question here https://www.nairaland.com/7443122/question-constitutional-requirement-presidential-election

Denying apc 25% in edo,rivers,crs bayelsa is funny while you allocated 25% to them in sw.obi won't see 25% outside lagos

garfield1:


Denying apc 25% in edo,rivers,crs bayelsa is funny while you allocated 25% to them in sw.obi won't see 25% outside lagos

I didn't allocate anything my friend. These are bantupage polls but with undecided/undisclosed removed. It is not my personal opinion lol. Remember you called this poll the "best so far".

You can do the maths yourself and get the same result.

garfield1:
This is the best poll so far,close to reality

wegevv:


Do you have a source? This seems to be an issue of contention and an INEC official failed to answer the question when asked on channels last month. I'll try find the video later.

The constitution says:

If the candidate gets a majority of “yes” over “no” votes cast in the election and at
least a quarter of votes cast in at least 24 States and the Federal Capital Territory.

The straightforward interpretation of that line means that the candidate needs 25% in 24 states and also needs 25% in FCT. But it can also be interpreted the way you have done.

Someone else asked this question here https://www.nairaland.com/7443122/question-constitutional-requirement-presidential-election

I think it is illogical to expect that the winner must get 25 percent in the FCT, I mean what is so special about the FCT?

My own interpretation is that;

The winner must achieve 25 percent in 24 states.
i.e. Either of these 2 ways;

1. Get it in 24 states without the FCT or
2. Get it in 23 states and then also get it in the FCT.

garfield1:


Denying apc 25% in edo,rivers,crs bayelsa is funny while you allocated 25% to them in sw.obi won't see 25% outside lagos

lol, he didn't do the predictions. It's a poll conducted by southwest and that's the result.

You are just finding it difficult to accept because it's not what you expect

wegevv:
Key takeaways according to these adjusted results:

- None of the candidates hit the spread despite adjustment to remove undecided/undisclosed but LP/Obi was the closest with 22 states as well as FCT

- LP have the most number of states where they are extremely unlikely to get 25% (dark red states). But they also seem to have the best chance of hitting the spread as they just missed it in Gombe and Kwara

- APC have the least number of states where they are extremely unlikely to get 25% (dark red states). Tinubu got the second highest spread with 18 states (including the unpolled Zamfara).

- PDP only hit the spread in 2 states in the south (Osun, Oyo and Bayelsa). Atiku had the lowest spread out of the main three candidates

- APC and PDP missed the spread in FCT. They need to hit 25% in FCT to be able to win in the first ballot

Cc:
Digitron
Penguin2
Eriokanmi
Garfield1
Nlfpmod
Seun
Trollronaldo

It is a difficult one indeed. My fear is that LP will be vulnerable if we go into a run off.

An LP vs APC run off favours APC and
An LP vs PDP run off also favours PDP.

The only feasible path to LP 24 state is

SE: All SE (5)
SW: All except (Osun) (5)
SS: All SS (6)

NC: Nassarawa, Kogi, Benue and Plateau (4)
NE: Adamawa and Taraba and Gombe
NW: Kaduna

States that may produce surprises are Niger, Gombe and Borno. I have seen increased activities in these states recently and I am hoping for a 'miracle'.

tesppidd:
I think it is illogical to expect that the winner must get 25 percent in the FCT, I mean what is so special about the FCT?

My own interpretation is that;

the winner must achieve 25 percent in 24 states.
i.e. Either of these 2 ways;

1. Get it in 24 states without the FCT or
2. Get it in 23 states and then also get it in the FCT.

You could say FCT should have the most diverse population but I don't want to get into the logic personally. I have admitted that it is vague and can be interpreted in different ways. I went with the straightforward english language interpretation of the constitution. No idea if that was the intention of the people that wrote it.

I think it is a bit ridiculous that INEC have still not clarified this. I hope it doesn't become a big issue after the election.

From my projections, Obi will have the spread in 21 states.

5 SE states, 6SS states and Lagos, Ondo, Oyo, Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, Kogi, Kaduna, Taraba & Adamawa.. That's 21.

LP will likely get the spread in Niger, Gombe, Ogun and Kwara states..

wegevv:
Key takeaways according to these adjusted results:

- None of the candidates hit the spread despite adjustment to remove undecided/undisclosed but LP/Obi was the closest with 22 states as well as FCT

- LP have the most number of states where they are extremely unlikely to get 25% (dark red states). But they also seem to have the best chance of hitting the spread as they just missed it in Gombe and Kwara

- APC have the least number of states where they are extremely unlikely to get 25% (dark red states). Tinubu got the second highest spread with 18 states (including the unpolled Zamfara).

- PDP only hit the spread in 2 states in the south (Osun, Oyo and Bayelsa). Atiku had the lowest spread out of the main three candidates

- APC and PDP missed the spread in FCT. They need to hit 25% in FCT to be able to win in the first ballot

Cc:
Digitron
Penguin2
Eriokanmi
Garfield1
Nlfpmod
Seun
Trollronaldo

I must say I’m surprised at the numbers Labour is doing or did in Gombe.

With that said, I think 25% might be achieved in Kwara and Oyo and even Osun, in the end.

I don’t know, but something tells me Labour will do 25% in 6 Southwest states.

LP is also likely to do 25% in Adamawa. I don’t know why the poll is projecting otherwise.

tesppidd:
I think it is illogical to expect that the winner must get 25 percent in the FCT, I mean what is so special about the FCT?

My own interpretation is that;

The winner must achieve 25 percent in 24 states.
i.e. Either of these 2 ways;

1. Get it in 24 states without the FCT or
2. Get it in 23 states and then also get it in the FCT.

I don't know the law that much, but I think OR should have been used instead of AND in that statement if we should go by your interpretation. However, using AND instead of OR is something that much be achieved. FCT is the seat of power in Nigeria, I think it's on that premise that one must achieved 25% there too.

garfield1:


Denying apc 25% in edo,rivers,crs bayelsa is funny while you allocated 25% to them in sw.obi won't see 25% outside lagos

Boss, I use to think this way until I studied the trend in South West results over the years.

LP is likely to get 25% in some south west states especially Ogun, Oyo and Ondo. These may be difficult but it is possible and the reason is simple

1. South West has always been liberal. They have never voted overwhelmingly for one candidate and I dont see that changing.
2. South West is the most dilute zone of the 6 geo-political zone. This means that they have a higher number of non-natives than other zone. Bulk of these non-natives are from south south, north central and south east.
3. Christian sentiment. Aside ethnic conideration, the biggest factor that will likely influence voters choice in south west in religion. This may give Obi an edge especially in the Ondo/Ekiti corridor who are predominatly christians.

garfield1:


Denying apc 25% in edo,rivers,crs bayelsa is funny while you allocated 25% to them in sw.obi won't see 25% outside lagos

Stop crying.

You that will dash Kaduna,Kano, Katsina to Tinubu even when he is not sure of making 10%

Penguin2:


I must say I’m surprised at the numbers Labour is doing or did in Gombe.

With that said, I think 25% might be achieved in Kwara and Oyo and even Osun, in the end.

I don’t know, but something tells me Labour will do 25% in 6 Southwest states.

LP is also likely to do 25% in Adamawa. I don’t know why the poll is projecting otherwise.

25% in Adamawa is so sure, no arguments whatsoever..

garfield1:


Denying apc 25% in edo,rivers,crs bayelsa is funny while you allocated 25% to them in sw.obi won't see 25% outside lagos

He didn't conduct the poll, Bantupage media crew did. However, if Wike genuinely works for Tinubu, APC will certainly get 25% in Rivers State. APC should get 25% in Edo too. You know that there are so many factors that would play key roles on the day of the election for the two big parties, APC and PDP which is strong structure base, it usually influence votes for them on the day of election even if the candidates are not that popular.

ImmaculateJOE:

25% in Adamawa is so sure, no arguments whatsoever..

Same thing I think here.

But if you look at the bar chart, you’d it was indicated red for LP.

See, Obi is winning this election at first round.

Beer parlor analysis

Daydreamer ...While Aboki show you show govt magic...as dem showed Awolowo in 1979...

obailala:
Very similar to my projections; I also predicted 22 states where LP is likely to get 25% of votes. Only difference is that I didnt include Niger and Kogi but included Oyo and Osun.

PDP actually won Osun in this poll. LP should definitely be working very hard there to see if they can steal some PDP voters and hit 25% there.

Yeah I was a little surprised by Niger and Kogi but those are the numbers

Penguin2:


Same thing I think here.

But if you look at the bar chart, you’d it was indicated red for LP.

See, Obi is winning this election at first round.

I still have my doubts about the spread..

My last count gave me 21 states..

Digitron:


It is a difficult one indeed. My fear is that LP will be vulnerable if we go into a run off.

An LP vs APC run off favours APC and
An LP vs PDP run off also favours PDP.

The only feasible path to LP 24 state is

SE: All SE (5)
SW: All except (Osun) (5)
SS: All SS (6)

NC: Nassarawa, Kogi, Benue and Plateau (4)
NE: Adamawa and Taraba and Gombe
NW: Kaduna

States that may produce surprises are Niger, Gombe and Borno. I have seen increased activities in these states recently and I am hoping for a 'miracle'.

You think LP is completely lost in Niger?

Based on these results they should be targeting those states as well as Niger, Osun and Kwara.

The only other state I'd pour resources into at this stage is Kano due to its huge population for the popular vote but they're not getting 25% there.

ImmaculateJOE:

I still have my doubts about the spread..

My last count gave me 21 states..

1) Abia
2) Anambra
3) Imo
4) Enugu
5) Ebonyi
6) Rivers
7) Cross Rivers
8 Edo
9) Bayelsa
10) Akwa Ibom
11) Delta
12) Lagos
13) Ondo
14) Ogun
15) Ekiti
16) Oyo
17) Osun
18) Plateau
19) Benue
20) Taraba
21) Kaduna
22) Nasarawa
23) Kogi
24) Kwara
25) Adamawa
26) Abuja

Only about 1 or 2 here might slip out.

How did you do your own count?

vicdom:

He didn't conduct the poll, Bantupage media crew did. However, if Wike genuinely works for Tinubu, APC will certainly get 25% in Rivers State. APC should get 25% in Edo too. You know that there are so many factors that would play key roles on the day of the election for the two big parties, APC and PDP which is strong structure base, it usually influence votes for them on the day of election even if the candidates are not that popular.

it's because they rig the election and do overvoting which BVAS will detect now.

Candidate popularity is the best bet for anyone now. No one is Going to conjure any figure for you, not even Wike can.

APC cannot get 25% in edo and rivers. They will had this election been conducted in 2015

wegevv:


You think LP is completely lost in Niger?

Based on these results they should be targeting those states as well as Niger, Osun and Kwara.

The only other state I'd pour resources into at this stage is Kano due to its huge population for the popular vote but they're not getting 25% there.

If I were part of LP strategists, I won’t advise them to waste time in Kano.

I’d rather they focus more on Kwara, Nasarawa, Kogi, Oyo and Osun.

No need pursuing a lost course.

This is exactly why IPOB people are the laughing stock of Nigeria.
The people are stubbornly delusional,even when a 2 year old knows they have no chance of winning IPOB will still create delusion in their flat brain.

wegevv:


You think LP is completely lost in Niger?

Based on these results they should be targeting those states as well as Niger, Osun and Kwara.

The only other state I'd pour resources into at this stage is Kano due to its huge population for the popular vote but they're not getting 25% there.

leave Kano.
Kano is a waste of time.

It will be a waste of resources invest scarce resources in northwest except Kaduna. Those guys are to tribalistic and religious to convince.