Penguin2:


If I were part of LP strategists, I won’t advise them to waste time in Kano.

I’d rather they focus more on Kwara, Nasarawa, Kogi, Oyo and Osun.

No need pursuing a lost course.

I agree for 25% spread but they still want to win the popular vote too so they can't stop pushing in Kano. 10% in Kano is a lot of votes. Even more than LP might get in some states that they win.

The popular vote is most important. You can't lose on the first ballot if you win that

Penguin2:


1) Abia
2) Anambra
3) Imo
4) Enugu
5) Ebonyi
6) Rivers
7) Cross Rivers
8 Edo
9) Bayelsa
10) Akwa Ibom
11) Delta
12) Lagos
13) Ondo
14) Ogun
15) Ekiti
16) Oyo
17) Osun
18) Plateau
19) Benue
20) Taraba
21) Kaduna
22) Nasarawa
23) Kogi
24) Kwara
25) Adamawa
26) Abuja

Only about 1 or 2 here might slip out.

How did you do your own count?

1. Abia
2. Anambra
3. Ebonyi
4. Enugu
5. Imo
6. Akwa Ibom
7. Bayelsa
8. Cross River
9. Delta
10. Edo
11. Rivers
12. Lagos
13. Ondo
14. Ogun
15. Benue
16. Kogi
17. Nasarawa
18. Plateau
19. Adamawa
20. Taraba
21. Kaduna..
I'm so sure of these states for the 25% spread.

Hoping for the following states to give us the spread.
22. Oyo
23. Kwara
24. Niger
25. Gombe..

Workch:
it's because they rig the election and do overvoting which BVAS will detect now.

Candidate popularity is the best bet for anyone now. No one is Going to conjure any figure for you, not even Wike can.

APC cannot get 25% in edo and rivers. They will had this election been conducted in 2015

I agree, but sometimes the popularity of the candidates of other seats like senate and HoR usually influence the presidency. We Africans are not mainly conscious about personality, rather the party. Some people will just vote PDP and APC because of the popularity of their local candidates that equally on the ballots.

Workch:
leave Kano.
Kano is a waste of time.

It will be a waste of resources invest scarce resources in northwest except Kaduna. Those guys are to tribalistic and religious to convince.

I meant for popular vote.

I agree 25% spread is impossible there but 10% in Kano is a lot of votes. Even more than LP might get in some states that they win. So they have to keep pushing there and focus on areas with friendly demographics

The popular vote is most important. You can't lose on the first ballot if you win that

Mfetenang:

This is exactly why IPOB people are the laughing stock of Nigeria.
The people are stubbornly delusional,even when a 2 year old knows they have no chance of winning IPOB will still creat delusion in their flat brain.

Love you too ❤️❤️❤️

vicdom:

I agree, but sometimes the popularity of the candidates of other seats like senate and HoR usually influence the presidency. We Africans are not mainly conscious about personality, rather the party. Some people will just vote PDP and APC because of the popularity of their local candidates that equally on the ballots.

things have changed a lot.

Particularly for me, I am voting across party lines. LP for president, APC for governor, PDP for senate

Penguin2:


I must say I’m surprised at the numbers Labour is doing or did in Gombe.

With that said, I think 25% might be achieved in Kwara and Oyo and even Osun, in the end.

I don’t know, but something tells me Labour will do 25% in 6 Southwest states.

LP is also likely to do 25% in Adamawa. I don’t know why the poll is projecting otherwise.

you are right. I think LP will have the 25% spread in 24 states. Cos they will meet the 25% expected of them in all the southern states, that is already 18 states, then when you add Benue, Nassarawa, Plateau, Kaduna, Taraba, and possibly, Kogi, Kwara, Adamawa, Gombe, and FCT.

IBBG:
you are right. I think LP will have the 25% spread in 24 states. Cos they will meet the 25% expected of them in all the southern states, that is already 18 states, then when you add Benue, Nassarawa, Plateau, Kaduna, Taraba, and possibly, Kogi, Kwara, Adamawa, Gombe, and FCT.

There are only 17 states in the south not 18. There are 19 in the north. It is a tall order but it is certainly possible. LP have a viable path to the spread

Digitron:


Boss, I use to think this way until I studied the trend in South West results over the years.

LP is likely to get 25% in some south west states especially Ogun, Oyo and Ondo. These may be difficult but it is possible and the reason is simple

1. South West has always been liberal. They have never voted overwhelmingly for one candidate and I dont see that changing.
2. South West is the most dilute zone of the 6 geo-political zone. This means that they have a higher number of non-natives than other zone. Bulk of these non-natives are from south south, north central and south east.
3. Christian sentiment. Aside ethnic conideration, the biggest factor that will likely influence voters choice in south west in religion. This may give Obi an edge especially in the Ondo/Ekiti corridor who are predominatly christians.

What is difficult in him getting 25% in Ogun state? I teach in a school where about 80% of the pupils are Yorubas. Infact I will do something now. I will ask them to write down the party the parents are supporting. I will update soon
These are for three classes and all pupils are 9+. One of them tried to write twice , that was the cancelled one. The "smartest" class of them wrote in the 3rd column.

Penguin2:


1) Abia
2) Anambra
3) Imo
4) Enugu
5) Ebonyi
6) Rivers
7) Cross Rivers
8 Edo
9) Bayelsa
10) Akwa Ibom
11) Delta
12) Lagos
13) Ondo
14) Ogun
15) Ekiti
16) Oyo
17) Osun
18) Plateau
19) Benue
20) Taraba
21) Kaduna
22) Nasarawa
23) Kogi
24) Kwara
25) Adamawa
26) Abuja

Only about 1 or 2 here might slip out.

How did you do your own count?

Are u convinced Obi will get 25% in Ogun,Ekiti, Oyo,Osun, Kwara and Kogi. I'm sure of Adamawa, Nasarawa, ondo, Taraba and the rest. Please Let's be Objective on this. I need encouraging response.

Hoelujohn:

What is difficult in him getting 25% in Ogun state? I teach in a school where about 80% of the pupils are Yorubas. Infact I will do something now. I will ask them to write down the party the parents are supporting. I will update soon

Please do, with that, one should be able to get a good random sample opinions, which is unarguably the best method of sampling.

ImmaculateJOE:

1. Abia
2. Anambra
3. Ebonyi
4. Enugu
5. Imo
6. Akwa Ibom
7. Bayelsa
8. Cross River
9. Delta
10. Edo
11. Rivers
12. Lagos
13. Ondo
14. Ogun
15. Benue
16. Kogi
17. Nasarawa
18. Plateau
19. Adamawa
20. Taraba
21. Kaduna..
I'm so sure of these states for the 25% spread.

Hoping for the following states to give us the spread.
22. Oyo
23. Kwara
24. Niger
25. Gombe..

Lol!

I don’t factor Niger in my calculation but I don’t know why you guys don’t think Obi will get 25% in Oyo. Are you guys aware that that state is a little cosmopolitan?

Meanwhile I found out Abuja is not part of your count, why?

buchilla:
Are u convinced Obi will get 25% in Ogun,Ekiti, Oyo,Osun, Kwara and Kogi. I'm sure of Adamawa, Nasarawa, ondo, Taraba and the rest. Please Let's be Objective on this. I need encouraging response.

Check out my posts, I am like the most objective and rational Nairalander there is. I don’t do emotions.

What I wrote up there are backed by empirical facts.

Penguin2:


Lol!

I don’t factor Niger in my calculation but I don’t know why you guys don’t think Obi will get 25% in Oyo. Are you guys aware that that state is a little cosmopolitan?

Meanwhile I found out Abuja is not part of your count, why?

Abuja is not a state nah. That's why the constitution separated it from the 36states. It says 25% in 2/3 of the states and FTC. I see lacuna in this part of law. AND and OR seems that 25% votes in FCT is equally required.

garfield1:


Denying apc 25% in edo,rivers,crs bayelsa is funny while you allocated 25% to them in sw.obi won't see 25% outside lagos

I HAV TOLD U tINUBU WONT SEE even 10% in this cross river. stop deceiving urself with all these pix u hav been posting

vicdom:

Please do, with that, one should be able to get a good random sample opinions, which is unarguably the best method of sampling.

I have updated it. About 3 refused participating, 1 said the dad is not voting.
The key thing is that do the parents have PVC? That's the determining factor

Hoelujohn:

What is difficult in him getting 25% in Ogun state? I teach in a school where about 80% of the pupils are Yorubas. Infact I will do something now. I will ask them to write down the party the parents are supporting. I will update soon
These are for three classes and all pupils are 9+. One of them tried to write twice , that was the cancelled one. The "smartest" class of them wrote in the 3rd column.

This is revealing.

Honestly, until recently I never thought LP can get 10% in Ogun, Osun and Oyo.

PO may just be the next Nigeria president

Hoelujohn:

What is difficult in him getting 25% in Ogun state? I teach in a school where about 80% of the pupils are Yorubas. Infact I will do something now. I will ask them to write down the party the parents are supporting. I will update soon
These are for three classes and all pupils are 9+. One of them tried to write twice , that was the cancelled one. The "smartest" class of them wrote in the 3rd column.

Didn't wanna comment on this thread cos i am a bit tired but this is very interesting and insightful.

Did they ask their parents of the parties they wanted to vote for before or after you asked them to do this assignment? And is this in an urban area in Ogun(Abeokuta perhaps)?

Hoelujohn:

I have updated it. About 3 refused participating, 1 said the dad is not voting.
The key thing is that do the parents have PVC? That's the determining factor

Sorry, I didn't know you had updated your comment already.

Digitron:


This is revealing.

Honestly, until recently I never thought LP can get 10% in Ogun, Osun and Oyo.

PO may just be the next Nigeria president

If he can get 25% in 5 southwest states then he's in business. The demographics are not hostile in all those states. LP just need to keep pushing there

Demographics is the problem APC faces with the spread. The demographics in the SS, SE and some parts of NC are hostile to a MM ticket. Harder to win such people over.

nameo:


Didn't wanna comment on this thread cos i am a bit tired but this is very interesting and insightful.

Did they ask their parents of the partiedms they want to vote for before or after you asked them to do this assignment? And is this in an urban area in Ogun(Abeokuta perhaps)?

I explicitly told them that based on what the parents are saying maybe while watching news. Not Abeokuta but majority of the parents are learned. Doctors , Prof, bankers etc. About 95% christians sha

Hoelujohn:

I explicitly told them that based on what the parents are saying maybe while watching news. Not Abeokuta but majority of the parents are learned. Doctors , Prof, bankers etc. About 95% christians sha

Aiit....Thanks

vicdom:

Abuja is not a state nah. That's why the constitution separated it from the 36states. It says 25% in 2/3 of the states and FTC. I see lacuna in this part of law. AND and OR seems that 25% votes in FCT is equally required.

I think by AND, the framers of the constitution joined the FCT with the rest of the states. So, that provision shouldn’t be ambiguous.

Penguin2:


I think by AND, the framers of the constitution joined the FCT with the rest of the states. So, that provision shouldn’t be ambiguous.

Very possible.

I think it would head to the supreme court if a party wins the popular vote and meets the spread in 25 states but not in FCT. Unless INEC behave themselves and clarify before the election.

Hoelujohn:

What is difficult in him getting 25% in Ogun state? I teach in a school where about 80% of the pupils are Yorubas. Infact I will do something now. I will ask them to write down the party the parents are supporting. I will update soon
These are for three classes and all pupils are 9+. One of them tried to write twice , that was the cancelled one. The "smartest" class of them wrote in the 3rd column.

I hope this won’t get you into trouble if they go home and tell their parents you asked them to do something like this?

I’ve been a school administrator and I know how some parents react to things like this.

Penguin2:


I think by AND, the framers of the constitution joined the FCT with the rest of the states. So, that provision shouldn’t be ambiguous.

If you join the FCT and the 36 states, it would be 37 then. Which means, it will no longer be 24states required, it will now be 24.6 = 25states.

wegevv:


Very possible.

I think it would head to the supreme court if a party wins the popular vote and meets the spread in 25 states but not in FCT. Unless INEC behave themselves and clarify before the election.

I think the FCT argument shouldn’t be my problem since Obi is sure to win there.

But what I that provision means is that we have 36 states, if you add Abuja, we have 37 sub nationals.

Now, I think what law means is that should get 25% of votes cast in 2/3 of these 37 territories. I don’t think it means you must get it in Abuja.

vicdom:

If you join the FCT and the 36 states, it would be 37 then. Which means, it will no longer be 24states required, it will now be 24.6 = 25states.

True.

Maybe what the law states is that you must get 25% in Abuja too.

This shit is getting technical 🤦

Penguin2:


I think the FCT argument shouldn’t be my problem since Obi is sure to win there.

But what I that provision means is that we have 36 states, if you add Abuja, we have 37 sub nationals.

Now, I think what law means is that should get 25% of votes cast in 2/3 of these 37 territories. I don’t think it means you must get it in Abuja.

That makes sense.

Let me ask a question then. If Tinubu wins the popular vote and has the spread in 25 states but not in FCT, would you concede if you were Peter Obi or would you take it to the courts for interpretation (assuming Peter Obi is second and in line to contest a possible runoff)?

It's vague enough that I think all the parties would appeal to the courts in that position. And that's my problem with the uncertainty.

Ultimately it is not clear and needs to be rewritten.

Penguin2:


Lol!

I don’t factor Niger in my calculation but I don’t know why you guys don’t think Obi will get 25% in Oyo. Are you guys aware that that state is a little cosmopolitan?

Meanwhile I found out Abuja is not part of your count, why?

Abuja is already a sure banker. My concern is 24 out of 36 states.

What you should know is that either Atiku or Tinubu will win the election

All Obi supporters are not afraid of mentioning their principal's name as whom they will vote for


All "indecision" or "refused" by the potential voters would go for other contestants

So, if divided equally among the other top three contestants, Atiku or Tinubu wins

In my opinion, Tinubu has the best pathway to victory with more than 25 percent in at least 28 States

Mfetenang:

This is exactly why IPOB people are the laughing stock of Nigeria.
The people are stubbornly delusional,even when a 2 year old knows they have no chance of winning IPOB will still create delusion in their flat brain.

You have never in your entire life engaged in intelligent discuss

This thread is way beyond what you can comprehend

Get your tribally condemned brain out of here