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Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Politics / Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls (1943 Views)
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Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by wegevv: 11:41am On Feb 15, 2023 |
Penguin2: I agree for 25% spread but they still want to win the popular vote too so they can't stop pushing in Kano. 10% in Kano is a lot of votes. Even more than LP might get in some states that they win. The popular vote is most important. You can't lose on the first ballot if you win that 1 Like |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by ImmaculateJOE(m): 11:41am On Feb 15, 2023 |
Penguin2:1. Abia 2. Anambra 3. Ebonyi 4. Enugu 5. Imo 6. Akwa Ibom 7. Bayelsa 8. Cross River 9. Delta 10. Edo 11. Rivers 12. Lagos 13. Ondo 14. Ogun 15. Benue 16. Kogi 17. Nasarawa 18. Plateau 19. Adamawa 20. Taraba 21. Kaduna.. I'm so sure of these states for the 25% spread. Hoping for the following states to give us the spread. 22. Oyo 23. Kwara 24. Niger 25. Gombe.. |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by vicdom(m): 11:41am On Feb 15, 2023 |
Workch:I agree, but sometimes the popularity of the candidates of other seats like senate and HoR usually influence the presidency. We Africans are not mainly conscious about personality, rather the party. Some people will just vote PDP and APC because of the popularity of their local candidates that equally on the ballots. |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by wegevv: 11:43am On Feb 15, 2023 |
Workch: I meant for popular vote. I agree 25% spread is impossible there but 10% in Kano is a lot of votes. Even more than LP might get in some states that they win. So they have to keep pushing there and focus on areas with friendly demographics The popular vote is most important. You can't lose on the first ballot if you win that 1 Like |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by wegevv: 11:45am On Feb 15, 2023 |
Mfetenang: Love you too ❤️❤️❤️ |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by Workch: 11:58am On Feb 15, 2023 |
vicdom:things have changed a lot. Particularly for me, I am voting across party lines. LP for president, APC for governor, PDP for senate 1 Like |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by IBBG(m): 12:00pm On Feb 15, 2023 |
Penguin2:you are right. I think LP will have the 25% spread in 24 states. Cos they will meet the 25% expected of them in all the southern states, that is already 18 states, then when you add Benue, Nassarawa, Plateau, Kaduna, Taraba, and possibly, Kogi, Kwara, Adamawa, Gombe, and FCT. |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by wegevv: 12:07pm On Feb 15, 2023 |
IBBG: There are only 17 states in the south not 18. There are 19 in the north. It is a tall order but it is certainly possible. LP have a viable path to the spread 1 Like |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by Hoelujohn: 12:09pm On Feb 15, 2023 |
Digitron:What is difficult in him getting 25% in Ogun state? I teach in a school where about 80% of the pupils are Yorubas. Infact I will do something now. I will ask them to write down the party the parents are supporting. I will update soon These are for three classes and all pupils are 9+. One of them tried to write twice , that was the cancelled one. The "smartest" class of them wrote in the 3rd column. 4 Likes
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Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by buchilla: 12:27pm On Feb 15, 2023 |
Penguin2:Are u convinced Obi will get 25% in Ogun,Ekiti, Oyo,Osun, Kwara and Kogi. I'm sure of Adamawa, Nasarawa, ondo, Taraba and the rest. Please Let's be Objective on this. I need encouraging response. 2 Likes |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by vicdom(m): 12:28pm On Feb 15, 2023 |
Hoelujohn:Please do, with that, one should be able to get a good random sample opinions, which is unarguably the best method of sampling. 1 Like |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by Penguin2: 12:36pm On Feb 15, 2023 |
ImmaculateJOE: Lol! I don’t factor Niger in my calculation but I don’t know why you guys don’t think Obi will get 25% in Oyo. Are you guys aware that that state is a little cosmopolitan? Meanwhile I found out Abuja is not part of your count, why? 2 Likes |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by Penguin2: 12:39pm On Feb 15, 2023 |
buchilla: Check out my posts, I am like the most objective and rational Nairalander there is. I don’t do emotions. What I wrote up there are backed by empirical facts. 1 Like |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by vicdom(m): 12:41pm On Feb 15, 2023 |
Penguin2:Abuja is not a state nah. That's why the constitution separated it from the 36states. It says 25% in 2/3 of the states and FTC. I see lacuna in this part of law. AND and OR seems that 25% votes in FCT is equally required. 1 Like |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by Fibonacci88: 12:43pm On Feb 15, 2023 |
garfield1:I HAV TOLD U tINUBU WONT SEE even 10% in this cross river. stop deceiving urself with all these pix u hav been posting 3 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by Hoelujohn: 12:46pm On Feb 15, 2023 |
vicdom:I have updated it. About 3 refused participating, 1 said the dad is not voting. The key thing is that do the parents have PVC? That's the determining factor 3 Likes |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by Digitron: 12:49pm On Feb 15, 2023 |
Hoelujohn: This is revealing. Honestly, until recently I never thought LP can get 10% in Ogun, Osun and Oyo. PO may just be the next Nigeria president 3 Likes |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by nameo: 12:58pm On Feb 15, 2023 |
Hoelujohn: Didn't wanna comment on this thread cos i am a bit tired but this is very interesting and insightful. Did they ask their parents of the parties they wanted to vote for before or after you asked them to do this assignment? And is this in an urban area in Ogun(Abeokuta perhaps)? 1 Like |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by vicdom(m): 12:59pm On Feb 15, 2023 |
Hoelujohn:Sorry, I didn't know you had updated your comment already. |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by wegevv: 12:59pm On Feb 15, 2023 |
Digitron: If he can get 25% in 5 southwest states then he's in business. The demographics are not hostile in all those states. LP just need to keep pushing there Demographics is the problem APC faces with the spread. The demographics in the SS, SE and some parts of NC are hostile to a MM ticket. Harder to win such people over. 3 Likes |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by Hoelujohn: 1:13pm On Feb 15, 2023 |
nameo:I explicitly told them that based on what the parents are saying maybe while watching news. Not Abeokuta but majority of the parents are learned. Doctors , Prof, bankers etc. About 95% christians sha 2 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by nameo: 1:17pm On Feb 15, 2023 |
Hoelujohn: Aiit....Thanks |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by Penguin2: 1:28pm On Feb 15, 2023 |
vicdom: I think by AND, the framers of the constitution joined the FCT with the rest of the states. So, that provision shouldn’t be ambiguous. |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by wegevv: 1:33pm On Feb 15, 2023 |
Penguin2: Very possible. I think it would head to the supreme court if a party wins the popular vote and meets the spread in 25 states but not in FCT. Unless INEC behave themselves and clarify before the election. 1 Like |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by Penguin2: 1:33pm On Feb 15, 2023 |
Hoelujohn: I hope this won’t get you into trouble if they go home and tell their parents you asked them to do something like this? I’ve been a school administrator and I know how some parents react to things like this. |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by vicdom(m): 1:38pm On Feb 15, 2023 |
Penguin2:If you join the FCT and the 36 states, it would be 37 then. Which means, it will no longer be 24states required, it will now be 24.6 = 25states. 1 Like |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by Penguin2: 1:39pm On Feb 15, 2023 |
wegevv: I think the FCT argument shouldn’t be my problem since Obi is sure to win there. But what I that provision means is that we have 36 states, if you add Abuja, we have 37 sub nationals. Now, I think what law means is that should get 25% of votes cast in 2/3 of these 37 territories. I don’t think it means you must get it in Abuja. 1 Like |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by Penguin2: 1:41pm On Feb 15, 2023 |
vicdom:True. Maybe what the law states is that you must get 25% in Abuja too. This shit is getting technical 🤦 2 Likes |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by wegevv: 1:46pm On Feb 15, 2023 |
Penguin2: That makes sense. Let me ask a question then. If Tinubu wins the popular vote and has the spread in 25 states but not in FCT, would you concede if you were Peter Obi or would you take it to the courts for interpretation (assuming Peter Obi is second and in line to contest a possible runoff)? It's vague enough that I think all the parties would appeal to the courts in that position. And that's my problem with the uncertainty. Ultimately it is not clear and needs to be rewritten. |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by ImmaculateJOE(m): 1:49pm On Feb 15, 2023 |
Penguin2:Abuja is already a sure banker. My concern is 24 out of 36 states. |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by ojoadeola: 1:51pm On Feb 15, 2023 |
What you should know is that either Atiku or Tinubu will win the election All Obi supporters are not afraid of mentioning their principal's name as whom they will vote for All "indecision" or "refused" by the potential voters would go for other contestants So, if divided equally among the other top three contestants, Atiku or Tinubu wins In my opinion, Tinubu has the best pathway to victory with more than 25 percent in at least 28 States |
Re: Do Obi, Tinubu And Atiku Have A Path To The Spread? Let's Adjust Bantupage Polls by Ofunaofu: 1:53pm On Feb 15, 2023 |
Mfetenang: You have never in your entire life engaged in intelligent discuss This thread is way beyond what you can comprehend Get your tribally condemned brain out of here 4 Likes |
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