wegevv:


That makes sense.

Let me ask a question then. If Tinubu wins the popular vote and has the spread in 25 states but not in FCT, would you concede if you were Peter Obi or would you take it to the courts for interpretation (assuming Peter Obi is second and in line to contest a possible runoff)?

It's vague enough that I think all the parties would appeal to the courts in that position. And that's my problem with the uncertainty.

Ultimately it is not clear and needs to be rewritten.

You are right.

Further explication has just proven that that provision might end up being more ambiguous and technical than we have always thought.

This is going to be the toughest election in Nigeria’s history.

Hoelujohn:

What is difficult in him getting 25% in Ogun state? I teach in a school where about 80% of the pupils are Yorubas. Infact I will do something now. I will ask them to write down the party the parents are supporting. I will update soon
These are for three classes and all pupils are 9+. One of them tried to write twice , that was the cancelled one. The "smartest" class of them wrote in the 3rd column.

Omoh, E choke.. LP held sway..

But what area of Ogun state was this poll conducted..?
If it is in the urban arear, can LP do half of what she did here in rural areas of Ogun state..?

wegevv:


If he can get 25% in 5 southwest states then he's in business. The demographics are not hostile in all those states. LP just need to keep pushing there

Demographics is the problem APC faces with the spread. The demographics in the SS, SE and some parts of NC are hostile to a MM ticket. Harder to win such people over.

He would have gotten that in January, but that has changed now with the current Naira swap crisis and the rallies in Lagos. The reality has dawned that Obi does not have the followership as presumed. He will do well in Lagos, but would not perform well in other SW States.

The current Naira swap is tilting SW voters toward Tinubu, and this may shore up his performance in the region. Atiku will lose Osun - no thanks to the Tribunal judgement pending at the Appeal Court. It has removed the shocks in the party's wheel in the State and the people are rooting for Tinubu now because he is being touted as a son of the soil

Penguin2:


Lol!

I don’t factor Niger in my calculation but I don’t know why you guys don’t think Obi will get 25% in Oyo. Are you guys aware that that state is a little cosmopolitan?

Meanwhile I found out Abuja is not part of your count, why?

Abuja is not a state. The law says 25%in 2/3 of the State= 24.

Ofunaofu:


You have never in your entire life engaged in intelligent discuss

This thread is way beyond what you can comprehend

Get your tribally condemned brain out of here

Obi will win with a landslide 😂🤣

ojoadeola:

What you should know is that either Atiku or Tinubu will win the election

All Obi supporters are not afraid of mentioning their principal's name as whom they will vote for


All "indecision" or "refused" by the potential voters would go for other contestants

So, if divided equally among the other top three contestants, Atiku or Tinubu wins

In my opinion, Tinubu has the best pathway to victory with more than 25 percent in at least 28 States

Firstly you’re entitled to your opinion. But the scientific poll done by bantupage disagrees with you.

Secondly, you made a valid point about “shy voters” in the undisclosed/undecided population. It is possible but various western studies have shown that the effects of this is usually minimal. It also tends to be regional.

It might be taboo for a Core Northerner to admit that they are voting for Peter Obi in Sokoto just like it might be taboo for a South Easterner to admit that the support Tinubu in Anambra

ojoadeola:


He would have gotten that in January, but that has changed now with the current Naira swap crisis and the rallies in Lagos. The reality has dawned that Obi does not have the followership as presumed. He will do well in Lagos, but would not perform well in other SW States.

The current Naira swap is tilting SW voters toward Tinubu, and this may shore up his performance in the region. Atiku will lose Osun - no thanks to the Tribunal judgement pending at the Appeal Court. It has removed the shocks in the party's wheel in the State and the people are rooting for Tinubu now because he is being touted as a son of the soil

Thanks for your kind contribution but according to every credible source the rallies in Lagos were a tremendous success. I'm sure most Nigerians are now experienced enough to dismiss propaganda pictures.

I'm also not sure how the SW population can blame anyone other than the current APC government for the Naira redesign crisis. And PDP still have the sitting governor in Osun state as far as I'm aware.

I think the analysis done on this poll is near perfect just that i don't see APC having 35% in Akwa Ibom.

LP will definitely pull a huge surprise in this election, they shouldn't be underrated at all.

Ricky97:
I think the analysis done on this poll is near perfect just that i don't see APC having 35% in Akwa Ibom.

LP will definitely pull a huge surprise in this election, they shouldn't be underrated at all.

Indeed Bantupage did great work gathering these polls.

NOI ANAP's final poll just came out moments ago too. Obi still has a comfortable lead in the popular vote according to them

Hoelujohn:

What is difficult in him getting 25% in Ogun state? I teach in a school where about 80% of the pupils are Yorubas. Infact I will do something now. I will ask them to write down the party the parents are supporting. I will update soon
These are for three classes and all pupils are 9+. One of them tried to write twice , that was the cancelled one. The "smartest" class of them wrote in the 3rd column.

Hmm.. This is very interesting an encouraging... Hopefully the kids in the 3rd class didn't just follow a herd mentality (i.e. everyone else going for LP cos the first few people did) .

wegevv:


Firstly you’re entitled to your opinion. But the scientific poll done by bantupage disagrees with you.

Secondly, you made a valid point about “shy voters” in the undisclosed/undecided population. It is possible but various western studies have shown that the effects of this is usually minimal. It also tends to be regional.

It might be taboo for a Core Northerner to admit that they are voting for Peter Obi in Sokoto just like it might be taboo for a South Easterner to admit that the support Tinubu in Anambra

What you said makes a lot of sense. I've always wondered why these polls returned lots of 'undecided' voters. But now it makes sense - some people feel shy to menion who they actually intend to vote for, especially given the sentiments in their immediate environment. Undecided voters in the SE are likely people who feel shy/embarassed/afraid to openly say they're voting Tinubu/Atiku. Likewise in the northern areas, undecided votes may very likely be people who feel shy/embarassed/afraid to say they're voting OBI.

I understand all your fears but let me be frank here. There is no state in the Southwest that Obi won't get 25%. Anybody that disagrees with this can stake with me. I have 50k ready for this. More Western States would be visited before the election day. Obi's Popularity is growing rapidly in the West. The whole Southern zone consists of 17 states. Now add the following states to the list.
1) Benue
2) Plateau
3) Nassarawa
4) Kogi
5) Niger
6) Taraba
7) Gombe
Adamawa
9) Kaduna
Then there are other likely states which requires more effort and he will grab 25% in those states. And he will visit those states before 25th and they are Bornu State and Kebbi state. Most of you have written Kebbi off forgetting that there are at least 30% Christian population there especially in the Southern part. My conversation with a Christian friend there shows that most of them Christians are rooting for Obi. More efforts is needed in Kebbi state. Obi advisors and Lp stalwarts should do something about it. As for Bornu State, those niggas there are doing a wonderful work and are they are highly dedicated in delivering Obi.
Back to my first Comment, anybody that thinks that Obi won't get 25% in any Southwest state should bet with me on that. Thank you all.

Princesaha:
I understand all your fears but let me be frank here. There is no state in the Southwest that Obi won't get 25%. Anybody that disagrees with this can stake with me. I have 50k ready for this. More Western States would be visited before the election day. Obi's Popularity is growing rapidly in the West. The whole Southern zone consists of 17 states. Now add the following states to the list.
1) Benue
2) Plateau
3) Nassarawa
4) Kogi
5) Niger
6) Taraba
7) Gombe
Adamawa
9) Kaduna
Then there are other likely states which requires more effort and he will grab 25% in those states. And he will visit those states before 25th and they are Bornu State and Kebbi state. Most of you have written Kebbi off forgetting that there are at least 30% Christian population there especially in the Southern part. My conversation with a Christian friend there shows that most of them Christians are rooting for Obi. More efforts is needed in Kebbi state. Obi advisors and Lp stalwarts should do something about it. As for Bornu State, those niggas there are doing a wonderful work and are they are highly dedicated in delivering Obi.
Back to my first Comment, anybody that thinks that Obi won't get 25% in any Southwest state should bet with me on that. Thank you all.

I hope you’re right. The truth is, if LP are doing so well on election day that they are getting 25% in all southwest states then they will likely be over performing in other areas like Kwara.

He definitely has a viable path to 25% in 24 states. In fact he has multiple ways to get there

More takeaways:

- There is one state where LP hit 25% in this adjusted poll but where Jonathan got less than 25% in 2015: Niger State. Atiku only got 25.59% there in 2019. LP's support could be overrated here

- There are 4 states where Jonathan hit 25% in 2015 but LP got less than 25% in this adjusted poll: Kwara, Osun, Oyo, Adamawa.

- Jonathan got 19% in Zamfara in 2015. Bantupage didn't poll Zamfara.

- Atiku hit 25% in 2019 in all the states that LP also hit 25% in this adjusted poll. Atiku is still on the ballot this time around

Places where this poll is giving LP significantly higher percentages than Jonathan in 2015:
- Benue +27.6
- Plateau +26.61
- Niger +22.64
- Edo +21.08
- FCT +17.51
- Nassarawa +11.93

That is 4 NC states plus FCT and Edo. The poll is clearly hinting at an Obidient movement in the middle belt.

I'll add this to the opening post for more visibility.

Looks like Bantupage saw something in Niger state based on results so far ❤️