He compared the modern market with a casino

Laso09:


I can't see anywhere he said his followers should play the market with the mindset of casino.
By my own understanding, he is asking people to be more circumspect and not get carried away with the chaos in the present day market where many see it as casino.

Mpeace:
If not for ASUU, some of us for no go school.

Pls explain. It is actually ASUU that added extra one yr to my graduation .They will always claim is for the improvement of education while actually it is just for personal gain ....salary increase

Mankind2024:
He compared the modern market with a casino

I didn't say he did not compare it with casino. Did he say he is changing his own view about the market and will also like to play like casino.
I will be happy if you can post the whole letter or link to it and not just an abstract from what he said.

The Dunning-Kruger effect can be used to explain the modern stock market in the following ways.
1. Overconfidence: Retail investors, often with limited knowledge and experience, enter the market with excessive confidence, leading to poor investment decisions.

2. Lack of expertise: Many retail investors lack a deep understanding of finance, accounting, and economics, making it challenging to accurately value stocks.

3. Biased information: Social media and online platforms amplify biased and incomplete information, further distorting investors' perceptions of stock valuations.

4. Herd behavior: Retail investors often follow the crowd, driving stock prices based on sentiment rather than fundamental analysis.

5. Noise trading: The influx of retail investors creates "noise" in the market, making it harder to determine true valuations.

6. Market volatility: The Dunning-Kruger effect contributes to increased market fluctuations, as inexperienced investors react impulsively to news and trends.

7. Difficulty in price discovery: The sheer number of retail investors, combined with their limited expertise, hinders the market's ability to accurately determine stock valuations.

The Dunning-Kruger effect highlights how the modern stock market's dynamics, driven by massive retail investor participation, can lead to inaccurate stock valuations and increased market volatility.

Lol
Baba was lamenting, he would never changed his philosophy.
He never own a unit of NVIDIA in Berkshire Hathaway humongous portfolio.
Baba was just telling investors on how to stick to FA in their investment journey.

Laso09:


I didn't say he did not compare it with casino. Did he say he is changing his own view about the market and will also like to play like casino.
I will be happy if you can post the whole letter or link to it and not just an abstract from what he said.

Laso09:


Many here have witnessed market cycle of boom and bust on the NSE.
What better way to learn than real life experience. I actually don't think the NSE is overvalued to be talking about bubbles,yes I believe some individual stocks are overvalued while some are undervalued.
And by the way,I was not only talking about NSE in my observation.

Nse is far from bubbled.How many fundamental sound stocks in nse is upto #1dollars with the present devaluation/inflation. Some yeye stocks are over priced even at 50k value here unless you are placing value on them based on hope/sentiments.

This is how Union homes,aso savings and staco insurance just carriy my money close shop finally few days ago.If you know the wahala I went through to raise 7 figures those days and the kind enjoyment I denied myself to invested in them

Mankind2024:
Lol
Baba was lamenting, he would never changed his philosophy.
He never own a unit of NVIDIA in Berkshire Hathaway humongous portfolio.
Baba was just telling investors on how to stick to FA in their investment journey.

That means baba statement was just a cautionary statement or letter to investors

Mankind2024:
The Dunning-Kruger effect can be used to explain the modern stock market in the following ways.
1. Overconfidence: Retail investors, often with limited knowledge and experience, enter the market with excessive confidence, leading to poor investment decisions.

2. Lack of expertise: Many retail investors lack a deep understanding of finance, accounting, and economics, making it challenging to accurately value stocks.

3. Biased information: Social media and online platforms amplify biased and incomplete information, further distorting investors' perceptions of stock valuations.

4. Herd behavior: Retail investors often follow the crowd, driving stock prices based on sentiment rather than fundamental analysis.

5. Noise trading: The influx of retail investors creates "noise" in the market, making it harder to determine true valuations.

6. Market volatility: The Dunning-Kruger effect contributes to increased market fluctuations, as inexperienced investors react impulsively to news and trends.

7. Difficulty in price discovery: The sheer number of retail investors, combined with their limited expertise, hinders the market's ability to accurately determine stock valuations.

The Dunning-Kruger effect highlights how the modern stock market's dynamics, driven by massive retail investor participation, can lead to inaccurate stock valuations and increased market volatility.

That means a smart dudu can really make money from this group by collecting 20-30% from then in different cycle. Can my conscience allow me do that oh.I dey see the game steady for this place.

Laso09:


Many here have witnessed market cycle of boom and burst on the NSE.
What better way to learn than real life experience. I actually don't think the NSE is overvalued to be talking about bubbles,yes I believe some individual stocks are overvalued while some are undervalued.
And by the way,I was not only talking about NSE in my observation.

Ok, what do you think about mcnichols plc?

Overvalued or not?

Geovanni412:


Ok, what do you think about mcnichols plc?

Overvalued or not?

Are you a trader or investors in this market. Have you noticed a pattern in that stock since last Yr.That will have made you take a decision at #1.55.We dey see all this stocks that can easily give 20/30% but the problem it is not my thing and volume no dey thr.I too like 100% and above hahaha

Geovanni412:


History of Nigerian market is not easily accessible on internet compared to us market

That is the problem,

A bubble like this might have occurred during 2008 but I can't seem to find precise records of stock prices during this period

And even if it is a bubble, calling the top might be tough - market might keep rallying throughout Tinubu 's 4 years till election period

No one knows what the market makers see as true value anymore.

As we monitor the stock market, we should also keep an eye on global crude oil prices. If crude oil prices are still high and Nigeria is able to ramp up production to 2 million barrels per day or more, leave story o because the market may continue to go higher.

One thing that should make us review things drastically is the price of crude oil. The FGN has just launched a USD local bond at over 9% per annum which will attract investors and has been generating interests.

Globally, Nigerian assets on the stock market are significantly cheap.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FUy7q2WGlBs?si=PfCPcXyjfFtceLIF

Laso09:


I didn't say he did not compare it with casino. Did he say he is changing his own view about the market and will also like to play like casino.
I will be happy if you can post the whole letter or link to it and not just an abstract from what he said.

It seems you have very little or no idea about the initial topic and your comment about ASUU.

Are you aware that every penny generated by every federal university is going directly to the TSA ? This includes the 400 naira vehicle sticker (so that you have an idea).
Are you aware that every institution in Nigeria is now a revenue generating institution?
Are you aware that Crawford University (a private university) paid over 300 million of Naira for the month of May 2024?
Are you aware of the outcry of Dr Save a life that pays 20 million naira for a month in just one of his hospital units?
Are you aware that one bedroom self contain pays between 15 to 20k per month in band A?

I guess UNILAG will be on the band A.

Fine, universities should be able to generate electricity on their own. But where is the initial fund? Is it the university where students needs to send samples to Canada, US, SA, etc for analysis, because of lack of equipments?

Anyway, I understand your pain, as you latter mentioned. One year is a long time to waste, I agree. But trust me, if not for ASUU push, I wonder where Nigeria universities would have been.

Raider76:


You have to get rid of ASUU first. They are the ultimate leaches that believe everything has to come from government. If Unilag is a private university in the example you gave they would have built the ferry.

ololufemi:


As we monitor the stock market, we should also keep an eye on global crude oil prices. If crude oil prices are still high and Nigeria is able to ramp up production to 2 million barrels per day or more, leave story o because the market may continue to go higher.

One thing that should make us review things drastically is the price of crude oil. The FGN has just launched a USD local bond at over 9% per annum which will attract investors and has been generating interests.

Globally, Nigerian assets on the stock market are significantly cheap.

I think the 9% on that dollar bond is high.I would have expected 6%.Then again the dollar stand to lose to naira if this government get its economic policies right.let say dollar to naira goes to 1000k gradually over the next 5yrs. Then the 9% won't be to expensive. If the revise is the case and naira continues to lose to like 2500 in the next five yrs.That means alot of printing of naira to pay back will happen .
Though I see more of the first scenario happening

olig:
It seems you have very little or no idea about the initial topic and your comment about ASUU.

Are you aware that every penny generated by every federal university is going directly to the TSA ? This includes the 400 naira vehicle sticker (so that you have an idea).
Are you aware that every institution in Nigeria is now a revenue generating institution?
Are you aware that Crawford University (a private university) paid over 300 million of Naira for the month of May 2024?
Are you aware of the outcry of Dr Save a life that pays 20 million naira for a month in just one of his hospital units?
Are you aware that one bedroom self contain pays between 15 to 20k per month in band A?

I guess UNILAG will be on the band A.

Fine, universities should be able to generate electricity on their own. But where is the initial fund? Is it the university where students needs to send samples to Canada, US, SA, etc for analysis, because of lack of equipments?

Anyway, I understand your pain, as you latter mentioned. One year is a long time to waste, I agree. But trust me, if not for ASUU push, I wonder where Nigeria universities would have been.

I beg to disagree on your stand on ASSU.Then on the amount you mentioned paid for power if it genuinely what they consumed based on metering not estimates. I have no problem wit it because I use prepaid in my house. If they used other energy sources it would have cost far higher. I am only supporting the amount based on true consumption.

From a historical perspective, every government in power has tended to devalue the Naira. It would be a miracle or the eighth wonder of the world if the next government after Bola Ahmed Tinubu (BAT) does not devalue the Naira. This is largely due to Nigerians' insatiable appetite for foreign goods, which puts constant pressure on the currency.

Streetinvestor2:
I think the 9% on that dollar bond is high.I would have expected 6%.Then again the dollar stand to lose to naira if this government get its economic policies right.let say dollar to naira goes to 1000k gradually over the next 5yrs. Then the 9% won't be to expensive. If the revise is the case and naira continues to lose to like 2500 in the next five yrs.That means alot of printing of naira to pay back will happen .
Though I see more of the first scenario happening

Geovanni412:


Ok, what do you think about mcnichols plc?

Overvalued or not?

I don't even have an idea of what they do.
There is no way to know if it is overvalued or undervalued when I have not gone through their books.

Mankind2024:
Lol
Baba was lamenting, he would never changed his philosophy.
He never own a unit of NVIDIA in Berkshire Hathaway humongous portfolio.
Baba was just telling investors on how to stick to FA in their investment journey.

That is what I am trying to clarify.

Mankind2024:
From a historical perspective, every government in power has tended to devalue the Naira. It would be a miracle or the eighth wonder of the world if the next government after Bola Ahmed Tinubu (BAT) does not devalue the Naira. This is largely due to Nigerians' insatiable appetite for foreign goods, which puts constant pressure on the currency.

At 1000k in the next 5 yrs does not mean naira has not lost value based on what it was before Tinubu government. Unless you believe it will be heading up from the present 1600.That will make the 9% high to pay back.when we know the money will be used to subsidise corruption too.The we go begin hear WHT is now 30%

But you did not mention why you diagree on ASUU. We always think all about ASUU is salary, which is not so. I did my masters in UI, if not for ASUU struggles and alumni, they wouldn't have had any working equipment. Still I had to send the bulk of my samples to Canada.

ASUU strike affected me in the past also (though at master’s level). But that does not me I will blame ASUU for it. I said it then that they shouldn't have called off the strike. Because, I know that our government is irresponsible.

By the way, I am not a member of ASUU, and I don't even work in government establishment.


More so, I never said the amount was not the true consumption. I only mentioned some of the realities in Nigerian Universities. Because it was as if UNILAG, etc are irresponsible. That was why I mentioned private too. Just to have a view about the affordability. Schools of UNILAG, UNIBEN, UI etc's magnitude should even be consuming more than that if they are affective and are where they should be. Labs, equipments, research, etc consume a lot. Some equipments can not or should not be turned off.

Again, my point is affordability who will pay at the end?


I deliberately did not respond to the post on the order given to crash food prices. It is also related to this. Government did not give an order to address cost of production. Yet, they want prices to be crashed, I can only laugh in Spanish. Th3y are just playing over our intelligence, because they know prices of food will relatively come down due to some harvest coming in (most of which we don't have storage for). They will now say it is their policy or order that is working.

I beg make we leave ASUU and UNILAG matter. We are here for business

Streetinvestor2:
I beg to disagree on your stand on ASSU.Then on the amount you mentioned paid for power if it genuinely what they consumed based on metering not estimates. I have no problem wit it because I use prepaid in my house. If they used other energy sources it would have cost far higher. I am only supporting the amount based on true consumption.

olig:
It seems you have very little or no idea about the initial topic and your comment about ASUU.

Are you aware that every penny generated by every federal university is going directly to the TSA ? This includes the 400 naira vehicle sticker (so that you have an idea).
Are you aware that every institution in Nigeria is now a revenue generating institution?
Are you aware that Crawford University (a private university) paid over 300 million of Naira for the month of May 2024?
Are you aware of the outcry of Dr Save a life that pays 20 million naira for a month in just one of his hospital units?
Are you aware that one bedroom self contain pays between 15 to 20k per month in band A?

I guess UNILAG will be on the band A.

Fine, universities should be able to generate electricity on their own. But where is the initial fund? Is it the university where students needs to send samples to Canada, US, SA, etc for analysis, because of lack of equipments?

Anyway, I understand your pain, as you latter mentioned. One year is a long time to waste, I agree. But trust me, if not for ASUU push, I wonder where Nigeria universities would have been.

I worked in a Nigerian university. I know what university funding and fund utilization are like. Most infrastructure and equipment in universities had nothing to do with ASUU push as you put it. They are just a bunch of heartless people who don't care about the lives of the young people they are training. ASUU has resisted every move to make universities truly self supporting, including the recent student loan idea.

V

Streetinvestor2:
I think the 9% on that dollar bond is high.I would have expected 6%.Then again the dollar stand to lose to naira if this government get its economic policies right.let say dollar to naira goes to 1000k gradually over the next 5yrs. Then the 9% won't be to expensive. If the revise is the case and naira continues to lose to like 2500 in the next five yrs.That means alot of printing of naira to pay back will happen .
Though I see more of the first scenario happening

Very good points you have made, Senor. However, if we can get into full-scale production mode for exports, a weaker currency will be a blessing to the country. Most people begging on the streets ought to be within the confines of a production unit in their villages thereby adding to the GDP of Country.

It still beats my mind how yam or cassava flakes (garri) is so expensive in the country. If we can be supplying our fellow diaspora brethren with value added products along these lines, we stans to gain massively. The population of Nigerians abroad is enough to generate good export value for many and earn them foreign exchange.

I even feel strongly that many resources that ought to go into production are being spent on degrees based on migration alignment. If 100 people pool the monies they've used to migrate (minimum of 5 to 10 million) and invested it significantly in an industry, they'd have turned the corner after a few years and be rolling through by now.

There is more than enough money in this country for everyone. We just need to open our eyes and keep integrity intact in our lives as Nigerians.

Good to know that ASUU is more powerful than the government. Obviously, ASUU also made the newly created universities "non self sufficient". ASUU has always proposed many ways to fund university. Go and check how ETF came to being. And now politicians have hijacked it using it to fund irrelevant things.

It is amazing "how selfish ASUU is", in a country where the take home of a professor is less than 500k. In University like UI where we had to help our professors carry kegs to look for water up and down. Where we had to contribute money to hire generator for months (when there is no reliable power) in order to do analysis and research needed to represent the university in national and international competitions. ASUU IS ALWAYS THE PROBLEM, right? Including the schools that doesn't have ASUU.

I end my case here o. This is Nigeria Stock Picks not ASUU or government thread

Raider76:


I worked in a Nigerian university. I know what university funding and fund utilization are like. Most infrastructure and equipment in universities had nothing to do with ASUU push as you put it. They are just a bunch of heartless people who don't care about the lives of the young people they are training. ASUU has resisted every move to make universities truly self supporting, including the recent student loan idea.

olig:
Good to know that ASUU is more powerful than the government. Obviously, ASUU also made the newly created universities "non self sufficient". ASUU has always proposed many ways to fund university. Go and check how ETF came to being. And now politicians have hijacked it using it to fund irrelevant things.

It is amazing "how selfish ASUU is", in a country where the take home of a professor is less than 500k. In University like UI where we had to help our professors carry kegs to look for water up and down. Where we had to contribute money to hire generator for months (when there is no reliable power) in order to do analysis and research needed to represent the university in national and international competitions. ASUU IS ALWAYS THE PROBLEM, right? Including the schools that doesn't have ASUU.

I end my case here o. This is Nigeria Stock Picks not ASUU or government thread

The whole model for the ETF should been a different one. The ETF have been designed as a student loan fund to aid secondary and tertiary education. Special considerations should be given to those involved in technical and vocational skills and repayments should be spread over a period of 20 years.

The universities should set their fees, the students fund it through the ETF and they can hold the schools accountable for the funds rather than an ETF giving free monies to universities and political elites to spend recklessly on low standard infrastructure.

Government is also able to hold students and their parents accountable for their performances in school especially starting from secondary schools.

olig:
Good to know that ASUU is more powerful than the government. Obviously, ASUU also made the newly created universities "non self sufficient". ASUU has always proposed many ways to fund university. Go and check how ETF came to being. And now politicians have hijacked it using it to fund irrelevant things.

It is amazing "how selfish ASUU is", in a country where the take home of a professor is less than 500k. In University like UI where we had to help our professors carry kegs to look for water up and down. Where we had to contribute money to hire generator for months (when there is no reliable power) in order to do analysis and research needed to represent the university in national and international competitions. ASUU IS ALWAYS THE PROBLEM, right? Including the schools that doesn't have ASUU.

I end my case here o. This is Nigeria Stock Picks not ASUU or government thread

When I said before that if not for ASUU I for no go school, people no understand.

They will not understand how irresponsible government is in Nigeria. They fail to look at other sectors that the government has total control, how badly they have faired.
You think govt cares about your education when all their kids are in Uk and other developed climes.

If not for ASUU una for see "Band A" university with any how education. Go and ask Nigerian Airways, NEPA, Nigerian Refineries, NITEL etc how government has made them more "profitable".

Govt only cares about money generation(that may be soon looted). You dont know how happy they are with the man at Jamb, that have been increasing "profit year in year out"

If you allow them, all they will do is "privatisation and comercialization" nothing more.

emmanuelewumi:




How come you did not consider the liabilities. Subtract the liabilities so that we can have the net asset

But first factor in the Oando power plants of equal MW capacity with transpower which has just reported 37b Q2 PAT, in case you want to say that power plants don't make money.

* Seplat and Oando have roughly equal crude oil capacity.
* Both are heavily indebted, but Oando's debts are heavier.
* On the other hand Oando has power plant and Seplat hasn't.

Raider76:


I worked in a Nigerian university. I know what university funding and fund utilization are like. Most infrastructure and equipment in universities had nothing to do with ASUU push as you put it. They are just a bunch of heartless people who don't care about the lives of the young people they are training. ASUU has resisted every move to make universities truly self supporting, including the recent student loan idea.

And you think they don't have a life to live because they are training people? Why do we lay blames in the wrong place in Nigeria?

Mpeace:
When I said before that if not for ASUU I for no go school, people no understand.

They will not understand how irresponsible government is in Nigeria. They fail to look at other sectors that the government has total control, how badly they have faired.
You think govt cares about your education when all their kids are in Uk and other developed climes.

If not for ASUU una for see "Band A" university with any how education. Go and ask Nigerian Airways, NEPA, Nigerian Refineries, NITEL etc how government has made them more "profitable".

Govt only cares about money generation(that may be soon looted). You dont know how happy they are with the man at Jamb, that have been increasing "profit year in year out"

If you allow them, all they will do is "privatisation and comercialization" nothing more.

Is the ASUU members not lectures we knew in school.Or they are from another planet. Leave those set of nigerians because they are part of the larger problem. Let us talk about stock and investment related issues .

zendi:

But first factor in the Oando power plants of equal MW capacity with transpower which has just reported 37b Q2 PAT, in case you want to say that power plants don't make money.

* Seplat and Oando have roughly equal crude oil capacity.
* Both are heavily indebted, but Oando's debts are heavier.
* On the other hand Oando has power plant and Seplat hasn't.

Can you share the link.What was transcorp power PAT since they have the same capacity. Is the oando power plant linked to the national grid. All my questions here are for sincere purposes because I don't have idea about them