ositadima1:



I no longer like discussing without facts, and I’m not theorizing.

Nigeria spent over 30% of its dollars on refined products, even when the exchange rate was below 500 naira per dollar. If you want the stats, they’re available from the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics. After refined products, the next largest imports are sugar, some grains, cars, and large machinery, while consumer products made up about 0.5%.

So, unless you have contrary data, my question is: why didn’t Nigerians splurge to the extent that it became noticeable in the proportions when naira was less than 500? Please, facts only.

RodgersAkpafu:


I'll tell you one fact
The federal government was defending the naira when the naira was at 500, and there was a wide gulf between the official and parallel market


I'll give you another fact
the current administration washed their hands off such policy and closed the gap between official and parallel market

You really think if emefiele took his hands off the naira the way cardoso did, that things won't fall apart the way it did ?

You Nigerians need to drop this mentality of yours of being overtly optimistic and transfixing what you think/want reality to be, as the possible reality.

Another fact that you are looking for
Nigerian student admissions to the UK grew 50% I two years span and dropped 34% when the exchange rate became unbearable (suggesting a strong positive correlation)
I can't tell of other countries, but I do know the UK very well

Take it from me
The naira WILL NOT do a 30% appreciation even in two years
If it stabilises, or have a 10% uptick, I'll consider that as a win

the economy as it stands cannot deliver that in two years

or with the exploding foreign public debt obligations and servicing we have to do (further outflows) or you want "facts" for this one too ?

you really expect a dramatic uptick?

Not to talk of the naira being a heavily shorted currency from big banks in London

My people
the odds are against you

una dey play.

Tpharell:
Whole state governors are converting their allocations to USD, even the CBN alluded to that, but delusional people believe that somehow, the naira will ‘miraculously’ recover based on some textbook theory they read about in school.

ositadima1:


First, do you understand the concept of ratios? Let me repeat: when the naira was below 500, Nigeria spent over 90% of its dollars on refined products, sugar, heavy machinery, and grains. Why were imported consumer goods less than 2%?

Telling me about students going abroad is irrelevant—that has been a constant, even when the naira was 1 to 1. What about the dollars they repatriate?

USAfall2024:
People who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
Never in history has the Nigerian Naira outperformed the American Dollar over a reasonable span. Expecting anything different is being too optimistic IMO. At best, the decline of our currency’s value will be stopped and maybe we get to enjoy a period of exchange rate stability. But I personally don’t expect that, a little value depreciation against dollar YoY will keep going except our economy’s production output takes a big turn-around (which is unlikely). Just my opinion, I would love to be wrong.

RodgersAkpafu:


I mean this is the stance anyone who is being dispassionate will take.

It's clear to see

If Nigerians can adopt economic behavioural patterns of South Koreans, then maybe some magic can occur
But as long as its Nigerians as I know us to be
forget story

Agbalowomeri:


Is Dangote Refinery liable to local tax? Is it not operating in a free trade zone?

USAfall2024:

I get your message boss. Let’s Mr. Time do his thing. All in all, as citizens, let’s maintain our hope for better days.

USAfall2024:
People who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
Never in history has the Nigerian Naira outperformed the American Dollar over a reasonable span. Expecting anything different is being too optimistic IMO. At best, the decline of our currency’s value will be stopped and maybe we get to enjoy a period of exchange rate stability. But I personally don’t expect that, a little value depreciation against dollar YoY will keep going except our economy’s production output takes a big turn-around (which is unlikely). Just my opinion, I would love to be wrong.

Bagwa:
Dear Market Participants,

Pursuant to the Company’s request to withdraw its shares from trading on the NASD OTC Exchange, we wish to inform you that the shares of ARADEL HOLDINGS PLC will be placed on suspension at the Close of Business (COB) Friday, October 11, 2024.

Background

At the Annual General Meeting of Aradel Holdings PLC held on Wednesday, June 5, 2024, the shareholders approved the voluntary delisting of the company's shares from the NASD OTC Securities Exchange, subject to obtaining the necessary regulatory approvals and complying with all applicable regulatory requirements.

See details below:

Company Name: Aradel Holdings PLC
Symbol Code: SDARADEL
Date of Suspension: 11/10/2024 (COB)
Please be guided accordingly.

Thank you.

KarlTom:
The cabals or institutions behind certain sectors would not allow it to happen easily.

Less than a decade ago, anyone saying that a Nigerian would build a 650,000bpd refinery would have been tagged a joker but here we are today.

I believe that we need to first of all, dream then we need to take cognitive steps to actualize those dreams.

Alhaji Dangote has become the subject of our discussions today because he didn't allow the cabals/institutions to stop the fulfilment of his dream...

RodgersAkpafu:


I mean this is the stance anyone who is being dispassionate will take.

It's clear to see

If Nigerians can adopt economic behavioural patterns of South Koreans, then maybe some magic can occur
But as long as its Nigerians as I know us to be
forget story

ositadima1:


First, do you understand the concept of ratios? Let me repeat: when the naira was below 500, Nigeria spent over 90% of its dollars on refined products, sugar, heavy machinery, and grains. Why were imported consumer goods less than 2%?

Telling me about students going abroad is irrelevant—that has been a constant, even when the naira was 1 to 1. What about the dollars they repatriate?

Streetinvestor2:
Bros free that guy.You see when you begin to engage someone who has left naija to the so called safe heaven. And he begin to say things like,you Nigerians or you African. I stop taking them seriously. I have friends like that who now live abroad. You know when he was here nothing to show and even in the so called abroad they have nothing tp show for it.
All he mentioned has always been in existence with the importation of refined fuel making a big hole in the forex demand which was the main concern. If the government stop playing politics with it,It will make a plus
The claiming by these guys staying abroad is always making me smile .Ask many of them to produce 200M that boys in main market can bring out without coughing. You go begin hear English. The dollars does not need to even go below 1k for any reason in the next 5yr.If it can stabilize at #1200 for some yrs it is good.
Thr hope is for it to do 2k and above so that when they come back with thr little dollars after many yrs in abroad. It will look like they are doing well when they change it.
Oga boys are making serious cash for naija if you know

RodgersAkpafu:
"Thr hope is for it to do 2k and above so that when they come back with thr little dollars after many yrs in abroad. It will look like they are doing well when they change it.
Oga boys are making serious cash for naija if you know"

This is a comment only an economic illiterate will make (and I am saying this will all due DISRESPECT)..
Anybody with half a brain knows it's not by exchange rate, but what the money can buy

and hoping for it to get to 2k is counter productive because Mr. Inflation will do its thing and wipe out most of the gains from the fx arbitrage

Rice I bought <50k at one time is now >100k

how does a weakened exchange rate mitigate that?

Anyways this will be be my last post (hopefully) on the matter
So as not to derail the thread, and out of respect for the OGs here

Peace

essentialone:
All these una argument no concern me. All of una go school pass me. All of una get money pass me. All of una speak English pass me. I no dey argue with people wey pass me. Na learn I dey learn from them.

essentialone:

4. Funds is not really an issue as I have suffered and struggled hard and raised something in the region of 9-figures.
5. And I do not like to personally remain in Nigeria. I am not one of your patriotic Nigerian citizens who will want to stay back and rebuild Nigeria. After all, even Tinubu and Buhari and Atiku and Obi lives abroad. 😂

olig:
Please, which broker is recommended for NASD?

I also need recommendation for another good NGX broker, like MorganCapital. I need the one with live trading features.

Thank you.

yMcy56:
Make una no vex o......but can you guys just take these Naira/PMS discussions to the appropriate thread on NL before the politics guys invade here.

Let's stick to the purpose of this thread pls.

emmaodet:


I use meritrade.
You can register with them

yMcy56:
Make una no vex o......but can you guys just take these Naira/PMS discussions to the appropriate thread on NL before the politics guys invade here.

Let's stick to the purpose of this thread pls.
The discussion is becoming unending. Haba!!