olatunji21:

Definitely not.. Now lets look this on a state by state basis.. (South West only)
OSun state voted for Ribadu irrespective of Tinubu's directive for all agent to back down in 2011..Am most certain Buhari would also nick it this time around. No Tinubu Factor
Oyo state, the Governor is still battling for his Soul here, i school in I.B, the body language of the people over here is surely in favour of Buhari..and also the incumbent has little say on this, he himself is not safe yet... No Tinubu Factor
Lagos state, surely here Tinubu call the shot but i stil believe that irrespective of Tinubu's Sellout, the general should be able to get a respectable amount of vote..Possible Tinubu Factor
Ondo State-Here Mimiko has successfully brandish tinubu as An "Ajele" who wants to impose his stooge on the state because of their oil.. No Tinubu Factor here too
Ekiti-I believe the people of Ekiti voted fayose not because fayemi has not done well but because he refused to share the money.They wanted a Man of the people which sadly Tinubu does not represent.

You have a point though but just pointed out where you got it wrong on his influence on the side of Lagos state cos he is still in charge of Lasgidi.

Thanks for your responses so far.


Wisdom is a function of Humility and indeed the Principle thing

So let's see, tinubu wanted to be vp, he had no assurances of being chosen by gmb and yet deployed his structure to ensure gmb wins the primaries, does that make sense? People need to think back to 2011when acn and cpc were in merger talks, osinbajo is the same person acn was putting forward to be vp to gmb before the talks collapsed. Tinubu shed tears, really! Is this the first political battle he is fighting and loosing? This article doesn't add up.

Descartes:


You have a point though but just pointed out where you got it wrong on his influence on the side of Lagos state cos he is still in charge of Lasgidi.

Thanks for your responses so far.


Wisdom is a function of Humility and indeed the Principle thing

It's my Pleasure Sir

olatunji21:

Tinubu's influence have been extremely reduced with the surge in Buhari's popularity..He has little or no power to decide where the pendulum swings this time around.. It's not a lagos governorship election where he decides who and whogoes to this or that post...
N.B
it was glaring that GEJ was going to win the 2011 election, pple voted for him base on Pity and with an absolute trust in him, it was not because of Tinubu's sellout.. That i believe...

The bolded is the more reason why he is strategizing right now. Remember a bed at hand is worth more than thousand in the bus but right now both looks like they are slipping from him. He might play the game for a good price.

Tinubu I know cannot loose both at the same time..I mean VP and SW. Since VP has been lost, he will fight to secure his control of the SW political structure because the way things happened, Buhari and his new political team will hijack SW structure from him with federal power..That's if they win the presidential election thus as the saying goes, a bird in hand is worth thousands in the bush..

olatunji21:

Definitely not.. Now lets look this on a state by state basis.. (South West only)
OSun state voted for Ribadu irrespective of Tinubu's directive for all agent to back down in 2011..Am most certain Buhari would also nick it this time around. No Tinubu Factor
Oyo state, the Governor is still battling for his Soul here, i school in I.B, the body language of the people over here is surely in favour of Buhari..and also the incumbent has little say on this, he himself is not safe yet... No Tinubu Factor
Lagos state, surely here Tinubu call the shot but i stil believe that irrespective of Tinubu's Sellout, the general should be able to get a respectable amount of vote..Possible Tinubu Factor
Ondo State-Here Mimiko has successfully brandish tinubu as An "Ajele" who wants to impose his stooge on the state because of their oil.. No Tinubu Factor here too
Ekiti-I believe the people of Ekiti voted fayose not because fayemi has not done well but because he refused to share the money.They wanted a Man of the people which sadly Tinubu does not represent.

It baffles me when you guys think that our votes count. As we are here deliberating on issues, the Fed are somewhere perfecting how to rig the election immediately they notice its not going their way. If Tinubu play the game with PDP and they rig Lagos, Tinubu will definitely keep quite and once that happens their is nothing anybody can do and the result will stand. Tinubu's influence goes two ways.(Influence the people of Lagos and SW at large to vote for a particular candidate or influence them to protest when rigged out).

Though I didn't truly accept this, Tinubu can't be sidelined he's too mouthed
If they sidelined him
The much predicted El classico match BTW APC vs pdp
Is now like sevilla. Vs real Madrid.
Even if Tinubu don't sell, he won't invested his all

Though I didn't truly accept this, Tinubu can't be sidelined he's too mouthed
If they sidelined him
The much predicted El classico match BTW APC vs pdp
Is now like sevilla. Vs real Madrid.
Even if Tinubu don't sell, he won't invested his all
Any slackness from APC like this especially in SW or North means
GEJ till 2019 oo

This goes a long way to show you the desperation of Tinubu and how far he will go to achieve his ambition. I still belive 2011 will repeat itself again.

olatunji21:

Definitely not.. Now lets look this on a state by state basis.. (South West only)
OSun state voted for Ribadu irrespective of Tinubu's directive for all agent to back down in 2011..Am most certain Buhari would also nick it this time around. No Tinubu Factor
Oyo state, the Governor is still battling for his Soul here, i school in I.B, the body language of the people over here is surely in favour of Buhari..and also the incumbent has little say on this, he himself is not safe yet... No Tinubu Factor
Lagos state, surely here Tinubu call the shot but i stil believe that irrespective of Tinubu's Sellout, the general should be able to get a respectable amount of vote..Possible Tinubu Factor
Ondo State-Here Mimiko has successfully brandish tinubu as An "Ajele" who wants to impose his stooge on the state because of their oil.. No Tinubu Factor here too
Ekiti-I believe the people of Ekiti voted fayose not because fayemi has not done well but because he refused to share the money.They wanted a Man of the people which sadly Tinubu does not represent.

Osun isn't a play ground for APC trust me
PDP isn't done yet
Even upon loosing top members to APC
APC still have to rely on deputy LG to win Aug 9 gubernatorial election which is still been challenge in d court (voters larger than those that reg)
One thing that will also help is d gov acceptability... Aregbe in 2011 isn't the same in 2014,he was predicted to be the next big thing after Fashola... apart from workers, teachers that are against him, Apc in osun isn't 1,while pdp seems to be getting it right.. These are factors that decide where votes go to APC might still win but by a little margin (incumbent power if APC don't loose tribunal case b4 general election)
Ondo
Even APC can't match labour party in d state not to talk of PDP.. PDP will win this d margin I don't know
Ekiti.
With fayose credibility still selling real fast like aregbe in 2011 which I don't think we run out till general election.. PDP will by a wide margin
Ib
The gov feet is shaking tho ur prediction will likely be the outcome... Buh LP might align with pdp nd if Akala accept to work with pdp ogbomoso alone is already lost to Pdp
Ogun
I. Can't really predict this but the defection of the deputy and some top members won't help APC.. But I think APC will win this
Lagos
If Tinubu don't sell out APC will win by a great deal of margin but pdp will gather some votes thanks to Igbo ideology wen itz tym to vote
At the end NC will decide who wins nt S/W

olabukola:
It baffles me when you guys think that our votes count. As we are here deliberating on issues, the Fed are somewhere perfecting how to rig the election immediately they notice its not going their way. If Tinubu play the game with PDP and they rig Lagos, Tinubu will definitely keep quite and once that happens their is nothing anybody can do and the result will stand. Tinubu's influence goes two ways.(Influence the people of Lagos and SW at large to vote for a particular candidate or influence them to protest when rigged out).

This time we all crave for change..They all are masters of the game, Tinubu is not new to rigging, its a battle of the best rigger..

hizroyalflynes:

Osun isn't a play ground for APC trust me
PDP isn't done yet
Even upon loosing top members to APC
APC still have to rely on deputy LG to win Aug 9 gubernatorial election which is still been challenge in d court (voters larger than those that reg)
One thing that will also help is d gov acceptability... Aregbe in 2011 isn't the same in 2014,he was predicted to be the next big thing after Fashola... apart from workers, teachers that are against him, Apc in osun isn't 1,while pdp seems to be getting it right.. These are factors that decide where votes go to APC might still win but by a little margin (incumbent power if APC don't loose tribunal case b4 general election)
Ondo
Even APC can't match labour party in d state not to talk of PDP.. PDP will win this d margin I don't know
Ekiti.
With fayose credibility still selling real fast like aregbe in 2011 which I don't think we run out till general election.. PDP will by a wide margin
Ib
The gov feet is shaking tho ur prediction will likely be the outcome... Buh LP might align with pdp nd if Akala accept to work with pdp ogbomoso alone is already lost to Pdp
Ogun
I. Can't really predict this but the defection of the deputy and some top members won't help APC.. But I think APC will win this
Lagos
If Tinubu don't sell out APC will win by a great deal of margin but pdp will gather some votes thanks to Igbo ideology wen itz tym to vote
At the end NC will decide who wins nt S/W

Bro there was massive rigging in Ife, presidential might plays a big part in the total number of vote Omisore got... Am very sure Osun is Buhari's to lose.
Ogbomosho is two times lesser than ibadan in voting population..Gej wins there, Buhari win Ibadan + Oke ogun+Oyo town... thats massive
Ogun
The people love him... His achievement in less than 4years wil play a major part in their decision making.. Am most definite sure, buhari wil emerge victorious here
Ekiti
Fayose is quite different from GEJ, they love fayose Not GEJ.. And i think the widespread dislike for GEJ wil play a big part here
ONDO
No comment.... Na GEJ
Lagos
Its depend on if Tinubu sell out or not.. Even if he does Gej is not popular here, Apapa-oshodi express road wil compound his woes.. I expect buhari to win by a not too big margin(thats if Tinubu sell out)

olatunji21:

Bro there was massive rigging in Ife, presidential might plays a big part in the total number of vote Omisore got... Am very sure Osun is Buhari's to lose.
Ogbomosho is two times lesser than ibadan in voting population..Gej wins there, Buhari win Ibadan + Oke ogun+Oyo town... thats massive
Ogun
The people love him... His achievement in less than 4years wil play a major part in their decision making.. Am most definite sure, buhari wil emerge victorious here
Ekiti
Fayose is quite different from GEJ, they love fayose Not GEJ.. And i think the widespread dislike for GEJ wil play a big part here
ONDO
No comment.... Na GEJ
Lagos
Its depend on if Tinubu sell out or not.. Even if he does Gej is not popular here, Apapa-oshodi express road wil compound his woes.. I expect buhari to win by a not too big margin(thats if Tinubu sell out)

I can pretend to to accept ur permutations but omisore rigged thanks to GEJ is a big fat lie
Apart from the fact that ife can't turn their back to their son whom they truly appreciate even upon d blackmailing to damage his image after they are instrumental to akande, oyinlola even aregbe himself emergence as d gov
Expect u wanna sidelined the truth votes count under GEJ
U can't tell me d number 1 citizen can't rig an election to his favor

hizroyalflynes:

I can pretend to to accept ur permutations but omisore rigged thanks to GEJ is a big fat lie
Apart from the fact that ife can't turn their back to their son whom they truly appreciate even upon d blackmailing to damage his image after they are instrumental to akande, oyinlola even aregbe himself emergence as d gov
Expect u wanna sidelined the truth votes count under GEJ
U can't tell me d number 1 citizen can't rig an election to his favor

Am sure u don't expect the number 1 citizen to come down from Abuja to osun b4 an action can be rigged.. Here, am talking about the instrument of the state used to favour an aspirant against the other.. shey u get?

If this story is true, then I can tell you, like 2011, South West votes is for sale again. I expect GEJ to be in Lagos to come do the needful!

hizroyalflynes:

Osun isn't a play ground for APC trust me
PDP isn't done yet
Even upon loosing top members to APC
APC still have to rely on deputy LG to win Aug 9 gubernatorial election which is still been challenge in d court (voters larger than those that reg)
One thing that will also help is d gov acceptability... Aregbe in 2011 isn't the same in 2014,he was predicted to be the next big thing after Fashola... apart from workers, teachers that are against him, Apc in osun isn't 1,while pdp seems to be getting it right.. These are factors that decide where votes go to APC might still win but by a little margin (incumbent power if APC don't loose tribunal case b4 general election)
Ondo
Even APC can't match labour party in d state not to talk of PDP.. PDP will win this d margin I don't know
Ekiti.
With fayose credibility still selling real fast like aregbe in 2011 which I don't think we run out till general election.. PDP will by a wide margin
Ib
The gov feet is shaking tho ur prediction will likely be the outcome... Buh LP might align with pdp nd if Akala accept to work with pdp ogbomoso alone is already lost to Pdp
Ogun
I. Can't really predict this but the defection of the deputy and some top members won't help APC.. But I think APC will win this
Lagos
If Tinubu don't sell out APC will win by a great deal of margin but pdp will gather some votes thanks to Igbo ideology wen itz tym to vote
At the end NC will decide who wins nt S/W

Bros, your permutations is a story for the gods, we'll revisit this post 15th of Feb when all your permutations fall like a house of cards.... I can't help but inform you(incase of doubt) that 90% of the SW votes is already locked down to APC.. You can take that to the bank.

Everybody Knows BAT...
I'm not Surprised

LordVarys:
Call it the many nights of long knives, it still may not sufficiently capture the intrigues, betrayals, sellouts and drama that typified the various meetings which ultimately culminated in the choice of a former Attorney-General and Commissioner for Justice in Lagos State, Professor Yemi Osinbajo, as the All Progressives Congress (APC) deputy to the presidential standard-bearer of the party, Major-General Muhammadu Buhari.

With barely 24 hours to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) deadline for the submission of names of candidates by political parties, the name Osinbajo, which had been making the rounds as the alternative choice, finally got the official stamp of approval of the general to run with him on the party’s ticket.

Practically all but the last meeting convened for the choice of a running mate for Buhari had failed for one reason: the reported interest of a former governor of Lagos State and one of the national leaders of the party, Bola Tinubu, who made a poor show of concealing his desire for the job.

At each of those meetings, Tinubu, who yesterday said he turned down Buhari’s offer to be his running mate, was said to have made the emergence of a generally acceptable choice that excluded him impossible.

For Tinubu, party sources alleged that he saw his probable ascension to the vice-presidency as an opportunity to be “compensated” for his incontrovertible role in the establishment of a strong and viable APC, a move other members of the party, including the governors, had opposed on the grounds that he would be a hard sell to the Nigerian public.

To exemplify his all-consuming desire for the job, Tinubu was said to have attended one of the meetings with the South-west leaders of the party last weekend and told his audience a story of how Buhari had agreed to field him as his running mate.
According to him, all he needed was the consent of those at the meeting in writing, in order to convince the retired general that he (Tinubu) also had the support of the South-west caucus to emerge as his running mate.

Ostensibly, however, he was purported to have conjured the story following the honour accorded him by Buhari to choose the running mate and put himself forward for the position. But this, a majority of those at the meeting saw through, compelling one of governors to say if his statement was true, “Buhari has picked you,then you don’t need our signatures to get our support”.

Unfortunately for him, some of those at the meeting were uncomfortable with the fact that he wanted to get them to sign a communiqué, which he would have taken to Buhari, informing him that his people in the South-west, majority of whom are governors, had asked that he be fielded as the vice-presidential candidate. In Tinubu's estimation, the story would have been difficult to refute in order not to embarrass him nor put the party in a fix.

When it became clear to Tinubu that his people had effectively opposed his emergence as Buhari’s deputy, he reportedly broke down in tears, moaning that their stance would render him insignificant in the scheme of things if he was neither allowed the opportunity to field himself nor present a candidate of his choice.“We told him frankly: ‘Look, we love you as our oga but Nigerians don’t.' We told him we could not sell him because one, he is a Muslim and two, other issues might emerge from the woodworks that could be embarrass him and the party.“When it suddenly dawned on him that his goal was slipping from his grasp, he broke down in tears,” alleged a source, who also claimed that it was at that point everyone gave in to his demands that the post of Buhari’s running mate be zoned to the South-west and he should be allowed to pick someone else in his stead.

His despondency was further compounded after Monday’s nocturnal meeting where the parameters were clearly defined for the selection of a running mate. At this juncture, Tinubu may have thought that he had been completely schemed out and again sought the understanding of the South-west caucus of the APC to give him a soft landing by allowing him to decide who deputises for Buhari, regardless of his political baggage. With their backing, he dug deep.

[b]So while other vice-presidential hopefuls were being bandied as possible running mates, Tinubu ensured that the post of vice president never left the South-west, and made a last ditch effort to secure the position for himself.

In this regard, on Tuesday, he was said to have met with Buhari, who was at this point at his wits end with the pressure that had been brought to bear on the selection of his running mate.

Buhari, during the meeting, was said to have told Tunubu in clear terms that he would neither run with him nor accept a Muslim-Muslim pairing, adding that if he pushed it too hard, he (Buhari) might be compelled to stand down even as the party’s candidate.When Tinubu tried to make Buhari see things his way, a shouting match ensued, compelling the general to walk out on Tinubu so that the situation would not degenerate. It was against this backdrop that the former Lagos governor allegedly rushed back to his people to push for the emergence of Osinbajo.Seeing that Buhari was unyielding, Tinubu and the South-west caucus was left with no option than to unanimously back Osinbajo as the alternative option who was presented to Buhariand subsequently approved by him in order to meet today’s deadline for the submission of candidates’ names.[/b]

To political observers, Tinubu, with his overt desire, covert antics and brinksmanship, may have secured a diminished victory. But of greater significance, he has had a taste of what it means to manage and square up against the contending interests and forces at play in a truly large national party.In the days of yore, he could dictate the pace and rhythm of his more malleable, regional Action Congress (AC) and later Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN). With APC, he was shown that he can no longer pull the strings like a puppet master behind the scenes as he deems fit.With Osinbajo’s selection for the number two slot, it remains to be seen if Tinubu’s latest gamble will do his party and Buhari’s chances in the contest against the Jonathan/Sambo ticket any good. In the final analysis, the answer to this lies with the Nigerian electorate.

http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/-Osinbajo-s-emergence-the-drama-the-intrigues/197056/

You are a criminal liar. Shame on nairaland.

busy body at work!
y on earth would people carry rumours! did you watch the video or heard it from the jobless newspaper headlines fans!

carry your problem not people's rumour

Na lie. Buhari is lying he didn't say that, how can a man hungry for power through blood and fight relinquish his opportunity to lose again I disagree oooo

PapaBrowne:
Tinubu is not a happy man. He would have become candidate if not for Amaechi and his crew.
Tinubu is a wise man who understands politics. What he has done by presenting Osibanjo(an unknown person with zero political clout), is to position himself for a sellout to GEJ in order to safeguard Lagos as well as prepare for 2019 where his chances would be much higher as there would be no incumbent to deal with.

When God time don reach e dey do man like film trick...make we dey look dey go

Stories that are cock and bull in shape.

Interesting read but can a house divided against itself stand?

Tinubu and Buhari will settle their matters in boxing ring that i promise you guys fools

Nigeria political drama

it is only ibo newspapers that will always distort facts in this country. shior..Even, if you ignored reading their newspapers, they will say they are marginalized..

GhaliNaaba:

You are a criminal liar. Shame on nairaland.

Oya naa. Put the records straight. I know that APC is A Potpourri of Confusion but don allah, ka fada geskiya fa.

Whoever they pick its owkay by me. as long as Jonah didn't win.

Elantracey:
Interesting read but can a house divided against itself stand?

NO

Strange bedfellows. I'd rather the devil I know than the one I don't. How can a divided house champion Nigeria's development.

The comments above seemed to me as one of the best set of comments I have ever read in Nairaland! Sane comments with some level of analysis, making each comment lucid, and straight to the point. No attack on anybody's views. I appreciate that ladies and gentlemen. Back to the matter, as someone rightly said, APC has really expanded far beyond the ambits of ACN and as such Tinubu's control over the party has been shared by many so he can't single handedly sell Buhari out. He knows that at this stage, APC will continue to wax stronger even without him, the only thing left for him now is just to play along so as not to loose relevance in the party. My opinion though.

TheImp:
If Tinubu in his anger stays true to type and sells out Buhari again

NA WETIN YOU EXPECT BEFORE? TINUBU IS YORUBA PERSONIFICATION OF (odale) I JUST DEY PITY BUHARI TINUBU DON ALREADY SELL AM COLLECT MONEY!