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Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Politics / Nigerian Politics: BAD LUCK FOR NIGERIA - The Economist (3078 Views)
New Lagos Governor Ambode Incompetent - The Economist / Buhari's Ministers Are Practical, Energetic And Of Good Reputation~The Economist / A Former Dictator Is A Better Choice Than A Failed President - THE ECONOMIST (2) (3) (4)
Nigerian Politics: BAD LUCK FOR NIGERIA - The Economist by LRNZH(m): 9:01pm On Feb 22, 2015 |
A discredited ruling party faces its greatest electoral test yet A THREE-CAR convoy is considered modest for leading Nigerian politicians, and modesty appeals to Muhammadu Buhari, the leading opposition candidate in the presidential election due to be held on February 14th. From his rented house made of simple concrete with few windows, his cars drive into a busy street and are almost immediately stuck in traffic. Without the armed outriders and flashing lights that ease the passage of officials in the ruling party he inches his way to the airport in Abuja, the capital, his aides glancing around nervously. The aura of power catches up at the terminal building as he prepares to start the day’s campaigning. Courtiers, jobseekers and hangers-on in colourful garb and headgear rush in. Shyly he shakes hands. Mr Buhari, a 72-year-old retired general who ruled Nigeria for 20 months in the mid-1980s (and then spent 40 months in detention), may be on the verge of triggering the first democratic change of power in the country’s modern history. Polling and observers suggest the race between him and the incumbent, Goodluck Jonathan (pictured) is too close to call, with each commanding about 42% of the vote (see chart). Ever since 1999, when the army relinquished power, Nigeria has been ruled by the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), a sophisticated political machine greased by billions of dollars’ worth of oil money. Yet less cash is available these days. A sharp decline in the oil price has coincided, unluckily for Mr Jonathan, with the election. Government revenues have halved in recent months and the currency has tumbled by a quarter. Civil servants are paid late, if at all. Infrastructure projects have stalled. But the government’s biggest liabilities are the result of its own greed. Officials have never been shy about dipping into public troughs but the present lot is, by common consent, especially avaricious. Last year the governor of the central bank said that $20 billion had gone missing. He was sacked for his trouble. A report into his allegations is now on Mr Jonathan’s desk. Rampant theft has not only harmed the economy and exacerbated poverty but it has also contributed to public insecurity. With corruption endemic even in the army, soldiers are sent to the front line short of ammunition and rations. Demoralised and poorly led, they have failed to quell a jihadist insurgency in the north-east that has killed thousands. Almost a year ago militants from Boko Haram, a jihadist group that claims to have established a “caliphate” over a chunk of the country, kidnapped more than 250 girls from the town of Chibok. The government barely stirred until it was goaded into action by an international outcry. With much of the north-east in flames—around 1.5m people have been forced to flee their homes—many voters believe Nigeria’s situation today is worse than at any time since the civil war in the late 1960s. To be sure, large parts of the country remain secure and the economy has boomed in recent years, but insecurity is spilling southward. Left unchecked, the insurgency could tear Nigeria apart. At rallies, Mr Jonathan encounters unenthusiastic supporters; many are paid to turn up and so leave before his speech ends. Chairs are provided, perhaps to make the crowd seem larger. At a rally in Yola in late January they were thrown at him. Elsewhere his convoy has been stoned. Some election billboards are guarded by soldiers, giving rise to calls that the men should fight Boko Haram instead. The candidates, and their parties, exhibit few ideological differences. The election revolves around questions of honesty and competence as well as ethnic and religious identity—unsurprisingly, given Nigeria’s diversity, with 500 languages spoken among its almost 200m people. Mr Jonathan is a Christian from the south whereas Mr Buhari is a northern Muslim (see map). The key to victory for either candidate may lie partly in whether people vote along religious lines. To win, Mr Buhari must convince Christian voters, predominantly in the south, that being Muslim is not synonymous with Islamism. The atmosphere at Buhari rallies—even those held away from his northern heartland—suggest that momentum is on his side. Many attendees are euphoric with optimism that he can fix the country. They also hope that, as a former military man, he knows “how to make soldiers fight, not run away.” He has some form. Under his command in the early 1980s the Nigerian army drove out Chadian rebels from areas now held by Boko Haram (and which, ironically, are now being contested by Chadian soldiers who have been sent to assist Nigeria). They also look at his record in fighting corruption. When he was head of state he, rather unusually for the office, kept his fingers out of the till. He locked up hundreds during an anti-corruption campaign and launched a “war against indiscipline” in which he got whip-wielding soldiers to enforce orderly queuing. Civil servants who arrived at work late were forced to perform “frog jump” squats. Yet, during this period thousands of political opponents were detained without trial, political meetings were banned and the press was tightly controlled. Hundreds of people were tried before secret military tribunals and many were executed for crimes that were not capital offences when they were committed. Eager to play up his past the PDP has been publishing photos of him in military uniform with the headline, “Once a dictator, always a dictator”. Activists and foreign diplomats are unworried by his past. His running mate, Yemi Osinbajo, is a lawyer and pastor with a strong record of championing human rights. Mr Buhari, for his part, told The Economist: “We have to stick to the constitution of the country. Once upon a time I was a military man. But I do not want to militarise democracy.” If anything, Mr Buhari’s biggest flaw is the opposite of what the PDP alleges. He has never been a forceful character; he can be Reaganesque in his inclination to set the tone and direction of policy but leave the details to others. His party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), is the product of a recent merger of the four main opposition groups. Ruling-party bigwigs dismiss it as a “party of candidates” squabbling for power. Attempts to form a united opposition party at previous elections failed because the leaders could not agree on a joint candidate. This time they did, holding a credible primary before choosing Mr Buhari. The APC has, moreover, already shown it can govern competently. It runs the two most populous urban areas, Kano and Lagos, and almost half the federal states. Supporters on both sides have threatened to protest violently against a loss. Tempers will probably also flare if there are widespread irregularities in the conduct of the vote (see article). Some fear a Buhari victory could lead to an eruption of violence in the Niger Delta, the home region of Mr Jonathan, where the government has bought a precarious peace by paying off former militants. A victory for Mr Jonathan could, meanwhile, spark unrest in the north. The vote in 2011 was judged one of the country’s fairest, and yet almost a thousand people died in communal fighting. This election could mark a permanent shift in Nigerian politics away from one-party rule. The powerful used to crowd around one big trough, awaiting their turn. Now they must choose between two troughs. That makes for potentially nastier politics. But if Nigeria can hold together, there is a hope of better government. http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21642236-discredited-ruling-party-faces-its-greatest-electoral-test-yet-bad-luck cc: Lalasticlala, Ishilove, Maclatunji, Obinoscopy, OAM4J 3 Likes 2 Shares |
Re: Nigerian Politics: BAD LUCK FOR NIGERIA - The Economist by sammyj: 9:02pm On Feb 22, 2015 |
Re: Nigerian Politics: BAD LUCK FOR NIGERIA - The Economist by Splashme: 9:03pm On Feb 22, 2015 |
The Economist can [size=25pt]go and die It's an old story sha [/size] 3 Likes |
Re: Nigerian Politics: BAD LUCK FOR NIGERIA - The Economist by Caseless: 9:03pm On Feb 22, 2015 |
Even devil himself knows buhari is a better candidate compared to Gej. 4 Likes |
Re: Nigerian Politics: BAD LUCK FOR NIGERIA - The Economist by Caseless: 9:05pm On Feb 22, 2015 |
Splashme:NO,they won't die. They shall live longer and see the downfall of gej. 6 Likes |
Re: Nigerian Politics: BAD LUCK FOR NIGERIA - The Economist by Firefire(m): 9:06pm On Feb 22, 2015 |
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Re: Nigerian Politics: BAD LUCK FOR NIGERIA - The Economist by StunningCEO: 9:14pm On Feb 22, 2015 |
If anything, Mr Buhari’s biggest flaw is the opposite of what the PDP alleges. He has never been a forceful character; he can be Reaganesque in his inclination to set the tone and direction of policy but leave the details to others. Dis is so on point bein compared to 1 of d greatest American Presidents in history. Da pipul's general lives on. 2 Likes |
Re: Nigerian Politics: BAD LUCK FOR NIGERIA - The Economist by LRNZH(m): 9:16pm On Feb 22, 2015 |
StunningCEO: This is unbiased, well research analysis at play. Anybody that cares to read this will be convinced that GEJ is not the wise choice for 2015. 2 Likes |
Re: Nigerian Politics: BAD LUCK FOR NIGERIA - The Economist by StunningCEO: 9:21pm On Feb 22, 2015 |
LRNZH: 100 orijins for ma head. GBAM!! 2 Likes |
Re: Nigerian Politics: BAD LUCK FOR NIGERIA - The Economist by Rilwayne001: 9:22pm On Feb 22, 2015 |
great piece. 1 Like |
Re: Nigerian Politics: BAD LUCK FOR NIGERIA - The Economist by Rilwayne001: 9:30pm On Feb 22, 2015 |
Splashme: My brother don't cry today, today is not your melancholic day, rather on the 29th of March when GMB is declared the winner of the poll. You will then cry till the kingdom come. 2 Likes |
Re: Nigerian Politics: BAD LUCK FOR NIGERIA - The Economist by kay1one2(m): 9:36pm On Feb 22, 2015 |
We are still waiting for an apology from buhari for at least the inciting comments he made that led to the 2011 post election violence! Stopped reading economist much when I discovered their pro-gay stance! 1 Like |
Re: Nigerian Politics: BAD LUCK FOR NIGERIA - The Economist by LRNZH(m): 9:38pm On Feb 22, 2015 |
kay1one2: What has gay stance got to do with good governance analysis and issue-based campaign? Kindly stay on topic. 1 Like |
Re: Nigerian Politics: BAD LUCK FOR NIGERIA - The Economist by Topeakintola: 9:40pm On Feb 22, 2015 |
It is very instructive that most foreign media only talk about Buhari It is very funny that the Economist have captioned their article- Badluck for Nigeria. Did they also listen to Mbaka's tape? No more Badluck for Nigeria Sai Baba Sai Buhari 2 Likes |
Re: Nigerian Politics: BAD LUCK FOR NIGERIA - The Economist by NgeneUkwenu(f): 9:41pm On Feb 22, 2015 |
Re: Nigerian Politics: BAD LUCK FOR NIGERIA - The Economist by kay1one2(m): 9:49pm On Feb 22, 2015 |
LRNZH: Started reading economist in 2011; hard copy. Some of their ideals are so pacifist and some times too liberal. If you have doubts read the section of letters to the editor and see how people react to their write ups. They are very good no doubt but I take what they say sometimes with a pinch of salt. They are only focused on profitability and some times not the internal politics and ideals of a nation. From pro-gay to pro-prostitution to sometimes an overlooking of human right situations in some countries e.g china. 1 Like |
Re: Nigerian Politics: BAD LUCK FOR NIGERIA - The Economist by SkyBlue1: 9:52pm On Feb 22, 2015 |
Good article and salient points raised. If anything, the idea of a permanent shift to a multiple party political space is reason enough to vote out the current party (as if underperformance was not enough). 1 Like |
Re: Nigerian Politics: BAD LUCK FOR NIGERIA - The Economist by gists: 10:08pm On Feb 22, 2015 |
I was moved almost to tears by the statement below. This GEJ government is the worst thing that has ever happened to Nigeria. The same GEJ went on a dancing spree when innocent people were killed in Abuja. GOD willing this government ends on 29 of May regardless of their evil plans. LRNZH: 1 Like |
Re: Nigerian Politics: BAD LUCK FOR NIGERIA - The Economist by omenka(m): 10:46pm On Feb 22, 2015 |
The awesomeness of this piece could make Fayose and other satanists shiit bricks!! Desperately wish I could give the writer a hug. Truth can only be suppressed for a while, but it can never be subdued! Sai Baba!! 3 Likes |
Re: Nigerian Politics: BAD LUCK FOR NIGERIA - The Economist by LRNZH(m): 12:30am On Feb 23, 2015 |
gists: Mods, this is FP material already. cc: Lalasticlala, Ishilove, Maclatunji, Obinoscopy, OAM4J |
Re: Nigerian Politics: BAD LUCK FOR NIGERIA - The Economist by sunkanmivaughan: 12:51am On Feb 23, 2015 |
The most interesting thing about this election lies in the potential of voting out an incumbent president thus setting the democratic base for the electorates for any subsequent governments who may not'give a damn".Nigerians have never witnessed it before |
Re: Nigerian Politics: BAD LUCK FOR NIGERIA - The Economist by egift(m): 2:59am On Feb 23, 2015 |
Jonathan has just one problem = Cluelessness. That is the very reason: - He did not prosecute cases of corruption. - He did not appoint competent hands to work for him, even when it was obvious. - Took 19 days to even accept #ChibokGirls were missing. - His decimal achievements in all sector. - The very reason he was telling us he do not give a dam. - Reason for not visiting Chibok. - It is why he dismantled NGF and any one that critically advised him. - Why you hear "Jonathan Said" only to find out it is Okupe, Abati, Omokirikiri insulting and attacking Nigerians. - The reason he gave us Fuel increment shocker on the first day of the year. - It is also why he always form deaf and dumb when there is misadventure in his government. - Why he collected $1b loan and gave fake Boko haram for cease-fire. - The same reason he is still defending that Stealing is not an act of Corruption. - And many, many more.... It is called Cluelessness! Now he wished he had done things differently when it is already too late. |
Re: Nigerian Politics: BAD LUCK FOR NIGERIA - The Economist by egift(m): 3:03am On Feb 23, 2015 |
A man whose Destiny has come. Welcome Man-Of-The-Moment. The wind of Change. God bless Nigeria. Sai Buhari. 1 Like |
Re: Nigerian Politics: BAD LUCK FOR NIGERIA - The Economist by wemmieslim(f): 3:28am On Feb 23, 2015 |
Am just excited,great thing is about to happen in obodo we country,chaii,this election dey sweet me for body o,Oga Jonah...,your welcoming party is in full swing at Otueke,I rejoice with you o,you have indeed fought the good fight of faith,its time for you to relax,goan learn more fishing after retirement, you will need it to keep you busy.., I am for CHANGE!!! 1 Like |
Re: Nigerian Politics: BAD LUCK FOR NIGERIA - The Economist by patrickmuf(m): 3:58am On Feb 23, 2015 |
Sound analysis here...Bet no body can raise a finger to counter any of the points raised... 1 Like |
Re: Nigerian Politics: BAD LUCK FOR NIGERIA - The Economist by anonimi: 4:52am On Feb 23, 2015 |
LRNZH: Apart from the fact that this is the handiwork of the oyinbo AKPD Media following Buhari about for his packaging, it is noteworthy that their poll was done two months ago in December shortly after the APCheat convention. Most likely it focused on urban areas more likely to be with non-voting armchair alakowe elite critics. Meanwhile what is APCheat if it is not the waste basket of the PDP rejects? As Jonathan continues the systematic cleansing of the party those who are used to the slush of the past under the letter writing Agbaya of Owu are shifting to join the corruption laden team of JagaBandit of Theif'nuibu cabal. barcanista: |
Re: Nigerian Politics: BAD LUCK FOR NIGERIA - The Economist by anonimi: 4:57am On Feb 23, 2015 |
SkyBlue1: That is the case with Lagos state where Thief'nuibu cabal has ruined it for 16 years despite increasing IGR over 34 times from N7.2 billion in 1999 to N246 billion in 2013 not counting the undeclared amount that Ambode gave directly to the JagaBandit before he was sacked back then by Fashola. www.nairaland.com/attachments/2080663_olee_jpeg50ac2c9e26795655ae17af1287062b25 www.nairaland.com/attachments/1963832_thiefnubu1_jpeg3c45ed97d97f0aa45a60e01621ec3acd www.nairaland.com/attachments/2071670_amobodelagostreasuryintinubuspocket_jpeg76c650e7b4da72f386d60fc93b8843c5 |
Re: Nigerian Politics: BAD LUCK FOR NIGERIA - The Economist by anonimi: 5:14am On Feb 23, 2015 |
Thanks APCheat for this una propaganda photo. Noted that Ndume is back where he belongs with the waste basket of PDP rejects after being smoked out for his Boko Haram activities. No wonder he teamed up with Buhari who ACCUSED our army of killing Boko Haram terrorists and burning their houses instead of our government to give them amnesty. Yet when the opportunity came to negotiate amnesty on behalf of Boko Haram, our former Head of State ran away Borno: Senator Ndume slaps Assembly member over APC Primaries What is it with APCheat people and VIOLENCE sef This same Ndume who has been standing trial, for more than three years with so many delay tactics, for ties with Boko Haram oh Nigeria senator Ali Ndume 'linked to Boko Haram' How Senator Ndume Funds Boko Haram, Buys 400 Golf Cars For Sect … |
Re: Nigerian Politics: BAD LUCK FOR NIGERIA - The Economist by egift(m): 5:15am On Feb 23, 2015 |
patrickmuf: Don't be surprise when one lame political jobber come here screaming to the sky in an attempt to respond to the article. Everything points to the fact that Jonathan is heading back to Otueke. God bless Nigeria. Sai Buhari. |
Re: Nigerian Politics: BAD LUCK FOR NIGERIA - The Economist by anonimi: 5:27am On Feb 23, 2015 |
egift: Sorry oh but na only devil with im demons fit bless a Boko Haram sympathiser. #Lobatan #O pari #Finito |
Re: Nigerian Politics: BAD LUCK FOR NIGERIA - The Economist by egift(m): 5:48am On Feb 23, 2015 |
anonimi: You think that Jonathan can win this election through defamation. You don't even know you imply that with Jonathan's role with the militants in the creek toward Amnesty Programme, we all can also conclude that Jonathan was a Sponsor of the kidnapping, rapes, robbery, vandalism, killings, rituals and all the cult activities of the Militants. Anyway, all true Nigerians want is to send the Zoologist home, elect the General and move to a better future ahead. The opinion of folks who want to divide and destroy Nigeria does not count. Change is here. Sai Buhari. 1 Like |
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