As the north of the country suffers at the hands of Boko Haram one former military ruler, known for his ‘iron fist’, is enjoying huge levels of support for his presidential bid. Max Siollun assesses what might happen if he wins

With only two weeks to go until the most closely contested presidential election in Nigeria’s history, the biggest issue on the agenda is security. From Boko Haram to the instability of the oil-producing Niger Delta, the political fight between incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan and the lead opposition candidate, Major-General Muhammadu Buhari, revolves around who will ensure peace and stability.

Buhari is relying on his credentials as a retired general and former military ruler to convince the electorate that he is the man to end the violent Boko Haram insurgency that has killed more than 10,000 Nigerians and displaced 1.5 million others.

But what would Nigeria be like under a Buhari presidency? He has vowed to take the fight to Boko Haram, crush the sect, and “lead from the front”. Expectations of the stern and resolute general are sky high – many think he is tailor made to end Nigeria’s insecurity, but is he the reformed democrat he claims to be?

Boko Haram
The rhetoric of his campaign suggests that the defence policy is likely to change greatly under a Buhari presidency
Senior security figures have repeatedly stated that there is no military solution to the insurgency, and that the government must address the socio-economic causes of Boko Haram. Nigeria’s former chief of defence staff General Martin Luther Agwai has said: “You can never solve any of these problems with military solutions … it is a political issue; it is a social issue; it is an economic issue, and until these issues are addressed, the military can never give you a solution.”

Buhari has dealt with insecurity in Nigeria before. In 1983 he led an army unit that drove out Chadian rebels who had made incursions over the north-eastern Nigerian border. In an ironic reversal of fortunes, the Chadian army is now helping Nigeria to fight Boko Haram insurgents in the same corner of Nigeria. In response, Buhari has called the current Nigerian government’s reliance on assistance from a much poorer country like Chad a “big disgrace”.


Chadian soldiers gather near the Nigerian town of Gamboru.
The current government’s security forces have made tentative steps in the direction of a “soft approach to countering terrorism”. The national security adviser Lt Colonel Sambo Dasuki appointed Dr Fatima Akilu, a psychologist, to work as the director of behavioural analysis and strategic communication in his office. Last year it was announced that Akilu had designed a programme for de-radicalising and rehabilitating militants, and a communication strategy to counter Boko Haram’s narrative. However initiatives such as this will take years or decades to have effect, and the Nigerian public is not patient enough for incremental progress.



The rhetoric of Buhari’s campaign suggests that the defence policy is likely to change greatly if he were to win the election. His tough-talking promises to confront Boko Haram resonate with the Nigerian public. He has said he “will not tolerate insurgency, sabotage of the economy” and, in reference to the instability in the Niger Delta, the “the blowing up of installations, by stealing crude and so on ... All these things will be things of the past.”

If Buhari comes to power Dasuki and his colleague Lt General Aliyu Mohammed, the minister of defence, are likely to find themselves unemployed. Both men were key figures in the military palace coup that overthrew Buhari in 1985 (when Dasuki was a young army officer and Mohammed was the head of military intelligence).

There are questions over a military approach, too. So far, when the military has hit Boko Haram hard the group has escalated its violence and taken indirect revenge against civilians. Even if Buhari does end the Boko Haram insurgency, the conspiracy theorists among his opponents will likely use that against him to buttress their narrative that the insurgency led by northern Islamic insurgents was a political ploy to destabilise the southern Christian President Goodluck Jonathan.

The Niger Delta
The Niger Delta insurgency carries more severe economic consequences than the Boko Haram insurgency in the north
Boko Haram is not the only security menace threatening Nigeria. In 2009, after years of disrupting Nigeria’s oil production, exports and installations, more than 25,000 militants who waged an armed insurgency in the oil-producing Niger Delta areas of southern Nigeria to protest against economic exploitation agreed to lay down their weapons. In exchange for peace, the government promised to grant them amnesty, cash stipends, and training.

The elephant in the Nigerian room is that the government’s amnesty deal with the Niger Delta militants expires later this year, and the militants have threatened to take up arms again if Jonathan is not re-elected. Many militants see Jonathan – who comes from Bayelsa State, the heartland of Nigeria’s oil producing region – as one of their own.

Eighty percent of the Nigerian government’s income comes from oil exports, so the Niger Delta insurgency carries much more severe economic consequences than the Boko Haram in the north. Worryingly, four states in the Delta (Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Delta, and Rivers States) alone produce 80% of Nigeria’s oil (out of a total of 36 states in Nigeria).


Four states in the Delta alone produce 80% of Nigeria’s oil.
Although Buhari has said very little about the Niger Delta during his election campaign, the militants have reason for discomfort if Buhari becomes president. Militant leaders have become very rich from government patronage and contracts. Many ex-militants have been awarded security contracts to guard the oil installations they once protested against and attacked. Buhari – a man with a reputation for austerity and a no-nonsense approach to hard graft – is not the type of person to pay people money to not be violent.

In addition Nigeria’s ethnic, geographic, and religious differences can prove explosive, and it’s unlikely that Buhari – a Muslim from northern Nigeria – will treat the southern Christian Niger Delta militants differently to the Islamic Boko Haram , who this week declared their allegiance to Isis. Buhari simply won’t be able to hit one group of insurgents with an iron fist while negotiating with the other. But, if he stops the Niger Delta militants’ payments, then the country could face the daunting prospect of simultaneous insurgencies in both the north and south.

Those who have worked with Buhari describe him as “strong willed” and “completely inflexible”; suggesting that his resolute and unyielding temperament means he will stick to his words and will try to force a result with insurgents on the battlefield, rather than in the negotiating room.

If he becomes president after the vote, postponed until the 28th of March, Buhari will face the unenviable task of inheriting a nightmarish security landscape. But Nigeria’s problems are so deep and complex that they are likely to outlast Jonathan, however long he hopes to cling to power, and Buhari too if he is sucessful.

Max Siollun is a Nigerian historian, writer, and author of the books Oil, Politics and Violence: Nigeria’s Military Coup Culture 1966-1976 and Soldiers of Fortune: a History of Nigeria (1983-1993). Follow him on Twitter @maxsiollun




Source:http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/11/nigerian-elections-what-if-general-buhari-wins

dein77:
Buhari can NEVER rule this nation again.

GEJ till 2019!

WisdomFlakes:


Story! He will WIN it and you will live to witness it, LIVE. Heaven will not fall. You can either endure him as we have endured GEJ for the past 5 or so years, or you RELOCATE. Afterall, EFCC has returned FFK's passport, do you think that is a co-incident? The bobo don effect Plan-B of fleeing the country after GMB wins this coming election.

EbubeOnoh:
Firstly he will bring change in your lives. Secondary he will bring infrastructural development thirdly he will bring down all this pot belly politicians that is eating our birth rite(money) an send them to kirikiri maximum. Especially FFK and FAYOSE SAI BUHARI SAI CHANGE GMB 2015

dein77:


U folks think Buhari has the provisions to unilaterally throw people into jail.

God will keep us alive!

temitemi1:
Buhari winning the presidency is a day light Dream, which can never happen in reality . GEJ till 2019!!!

Abdullah007:
APC LIE LIAR MUHAMMAD BUHARI WOULD SOON BE JAILED FOR POST ELECTION VIOLENCE HE WATCHED AS HIS SUPPORTERS MAIMED AND KILLED YOUTH CORPERS AND INNOCENT CIVILIANS IN 2011 AND HE DID NOT CALL THEM TO ORDER.



APC WITCHCRAFT BROOM CARRYING PARTY

The Schizophrenic demented sick Pa Buhari is a tyrant a terrorist and a deranged old brainless super clueless bastard
Apc is boko haram
Thiefnu.bu is ,a pedophile, drug dealer and a cocain sniffer property seized in the usa for his drug deals.

Buhari can only be president in sambisa and shekau would hand over to him with his forged result.

Osinbajo is fake and a loafer

Amechi and Fashola are errand boys

Ambode new recruit errand boy


Buhari boko haram spiritual head

Atiku and Thiefnu.bu boko haram sponsor


BUHARI" Abacha is not corrupt and did not steal ".


Muslim brotherhood party APC is the Nigerian version of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood Party? Check out this: 1. Party Leader - North: Gen Muhammadu Buhari (Muslim). 2. Party Leader - South: Bola Ahmed Tinubu (Muslim). 3. National Chairman: Abdulkareem Bisi Akande (Muslim). 4. Deputy National Chairman: Aminu Bello Masari (Muslim). 5. National Secretary: Tijjani Musa Tumsah (Muslim). 6. Deputy National Secretary: Nasir El-Rufai (Muslim). 7. National Publicity Secretary: Lai Muhammad (Muslim). 8. National Treasurer: Sadiya Umar Faruq (Muslim) 9. National Financial Secretary: Alhaji Shaibu Musa (Muslim). 10. National Youth Leader: Abubakar Lado (Muslim). 11. National Legal Adviser: Muiz Banie (Muslim). 12. National Deputy Auditor: Bala Jibrin (Muslim). 13. National Women Leader: Sharia Ikeazor (Muslim convert). 14. EX-officio Member: Muniru Muse (Muslim). 15. EX-officio Member: Alhaji Yemi Sanusi (Muslim). Yet, these people want us to believe they are PROGRESSIVES and that APC is a national party. I think APC has a hidden religious agenda..Be guided people!

WisdomFlakes:


He'll be operating under a democratic dispensation, with checks and balances to limit and check his powers. If you have not contravened any law then you need not be afraid bro. Afterall, PDP will be in the opposition , the civil society are also there to keep him in check. Get used to it bro. It can't be any worse than what we've been enduring.

Keep calm, and embrace Change.

dein77:


Ur master lacks what it takes to lead a complex Nigeria in this time and age. He simply can't do the job.

Let him start to respect the law my ending the certificate saga.

WisdomFlakes:


It's you cup-of-tea that you are still ejacula.ting over the 'certificate saga' coz the case is already in court and besides, INEC is not complaining about his eligibility, neither are Nigerians at large. At best you and your ilk can chose not to vote for him, but I hate to burst you bubble bro, your combined votes ain't worth diddly squat coz GEJ is going down come March 28, and the combined vote of the his purported strongholds won't change that thanx to the game-changing Card Readers that y'all hate so much. You better fall-in-line coz a change of guard is imminent. Embrace Change and spice up your life.

dein77:
Buhari can NEVER rule this nation again.

GEJ till 2019!

ejiro2130:
With the current cost of oil in the world market, Nigeria cannot afford to pay 25000 militants because the threaten the state we cannot afford to give big contracts to thieves who call themselves ex militant leaders.

Incorporate the militants to the navy, spend the money on modern weapons.

ejiro2130:
With the current cost of oil in the world market, Nigeria cannot afford to pay 25000 militants because the threaten the state we cannot afford to give big contracts to thieves who call themselves ex militant leaders.

Incorporate the militants to the navy, spend the money on modern weapons.

ejiro2130:


Why do u think they wrote the article if he can't win??

Bros there's a 60% chance Buhari is ur next president, take it or..........

zendy:
Niger delta militant leaders like Asari Dokubo,Tompolo and Boy loaf have already declared that if Buhari wins,they will not allow one drop of oil to leave the Niger Delta. If Buhari is elected,they will shut down all oil and gas installations. As this throws the Nigerian economy in free fall,Buhari will do what all ex military men do,reply with brute military force. This will lead to all out war in the Niger Delta and is bound to draw in Igbo separatist groups like the 'Biafran Zionist federation',MASSOB and IPOB into that war as they share the same ideology of removing northern domination. With Buhari facing Boko Haram onslaught from the north and a combined SS/SE rebellion from the south and no oil money to fund the military,Nigeria will dissolve in a bloody civil war.