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Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Politics / Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) (33832 Views)
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Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Nobody: 8:19am On Mar 17, 2015 |
ilugunboy:Oga, you narrowed your agument to Ogun state PDP. Who in Ogun State mobilizes more than OGD? Who influences more than Osoba as at today? Who and who are at the grassroot? While Amosin built infrastructure in Urban areas, can that be said of the rural areas? Even in his Ogun Central he will lose woefully. Who will mobilise votes for him? The machinery that brought him to power in 2011 are no more with him, they are now in the kitty of SDP. It is very easy to type on facebook but what is on ground? In my write up(OP) I made mention of the parties pushing for GEJ which goes beyond his PDP. As at today, APC is only strong in governmeny house. They lost so much in Ogun. In the State House, APC only has 13 seats out of 26. No Senator, just two representative. Senator Obadara has done more project in his constituency than the Governor. Sometimes I laugh at propaganda. 1 Like 1 Share |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Nobody: 8:29am On Mar 17, 2015 |
maestroferddi:this is similar to how Buhari is always projected to win 27m northern votes in every election since 2003, but the result usually prove otherwise. The opposition aren't ready for election. 2 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Scatterboss(m): 8:37am On Mar 17, 2015 |
barcanista: This shows you know nothing about Ogun state politics, you only read newspapers to make decision. I am from Eti Osa in Lag while my mum is from Ijebu Ode, been active in Politics of those states since childhood. I have never miss any Ojude Oba cos i also do the horse riding for my mumsy family house(except the last one). Go and find out who sponsored/supported OGD to defeat Osoba in 2003(It was this same AMOSUN). Also, go find out the cause of enmity between Amosun and OGD. During the time of OGD, frat men were like god in the whole Ogun state, he pay them and even do peace talk for them. His commissioner for Youth and sport then, Ozogula was the cordinator of those guys. They always assemble at Stadium everyday and sometimes use Wale Sarander hotel in Ibara GRA close to OBJ hilltop. Its no secret, more reason he was hated by everyone cos they believe he only sponsor cultist and evil men, most of those guys ran away in 2011 when Amosun took over. GNI ruined Gateway Holdings Limited and he can never win in Ogun state, his partly sin is also being a protege of a thief like OGD and also part of the people that ruined Ogun state from 2003-2011. Go ask why he lost under PPN floated by OGD. Furthermore, there is faction in PDP that people dont even know. The Dimeji Bankole and GNI primary election wahala, just like the same scenerio of Jimi Agbaje in Lagos. Bankole was a speaker and did nothing for the whole Ogun state except the street light from Pansheke to Oluwo(His father's area), its no secret that he is a sworn enemy of OGD (I remember the Sango Ota overhead bridge fight/tussle), that was why he lost out in the primary election won by GNI. The same Osoba you call a big force lost to paper weight OGD in 2003, SDP candidate now is Odunsi(Senator) /Adesegun (current deputy governor), GNI will even garner more votes than those jokers. As for Lagos, the Tinubu you all hate is still in control and most of you dont know how he run things in Lagos, the Agberos you all yarb all have PVC, market women, civil servant, TeamLagos( Headed by Kwam1 and Saheed Elegushi, the King of Elegushi), and people still love Fashola( The Skills Acquisition and Vocational Centre he started in Lagos was a masterstroke, most unemployed graduate and youth benefited largely from this institution, he built more than 20 of those centers). I still dont know how PDP will win in those 2 states. Lets wait and see. 4 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by MichaelSokoto(m): 8:38am On Mar 17, 2015 |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by MichaelSokoto(m): 8:41am On Mar 17, 2015 |
slimmy05:Keep consoling yasef. 1 Like |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Scatterboss(m): 8:46am On Mar 17, 2015 |
ilugunboy: I laugh when he talk about same OGD and Osoba. If Osoba is truly mighty, Tinubu would have try to reconcile him with Amosun, Ogun state people dont vote on sentiment nor area, they vote on performance and more reason Osoba was chased away in 2003 and PDP was rejected in 2011. I was listening to one show last weekend and the Olu of Owode, Oba of Iro and another Oba of Meko Olokin said Amosun must continue his good work and they are solidly behind him. The same Olu of Owode was part of those that told GEJ that he should warn his aides to stop disrespecting Obasanjo. I dont discuss other region politics, but am more of the grassroot of both Ogun and Lagos, my king is solidly behind Amosun and he told GEJ recently to reimburse the state for that mabolufon bridge, so many things underground but i wont argue with anyone. ![]() ![]() ![]() 3 Likes |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Nobody: 8:52am On Mar 17, 2015 |
barcanista: Outside what you read.....you obviously know next to nothing about Ogun politics. Most of these players from both sides....I know personally. You mentioned OGD....huummmmm! I laff. His main boys in Abeokuta in Adatan / Car wash area are solidly behind Amosun...Bukola ( Osogula) was introduced to OGD by who? Please I don't want to talk...you once asked me why I rejected my Uncle's offer to contest for a post in Ogun and I told you....I don't want to have enemity with childhood friends. |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Bruteforce1o1: 8:54am On Mar 17, 2015 |
barcanista: You mean GEJ is more popular than Amosun in Ogun state? I give up. 2 Likes |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Nobody: 8:56am On Mar 17, 2015 |
Bruteforce1o1: ![]() ![]() ![]() He loves writing what his new found friends in PDP want to see... 6 Likes |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by mandarin: 8:56am On Mar 17, 2015 |
barcanista: Barcanista, I understand your position and persuasion, however, you seem to undermine the power of the individual's and collective frustration that majorly determine what the electorates want. I just laughed at many comments on the Ekiti election and I will reference it for the sake of clarity on this matter. Fayemi received a shocking defeat irrespective of whatever controversial circumstances that was at play because the civil servants, teachers and local government workers perceived imminent restructuring should he win the election, so they conspired with their wards who are dependants in the country homes to send him away.That was the singular most popular reason for that loss, the people resisted his perceived elitist change program. However, Ekiti for example is not facing a gubernatorial election and actors in the election are 'outliers' and the situation on ground in the economic life of the state isn't as rosy as they thought.Coupled with the fact that even those in villages are politically informed, my brother, Fayose is not the determinant just like the people just wanted Fayemi out, you never can tell if they want GEJ out now. Let me tell you one secret factor at play, the influence of citizens of those states of Osun, EKiti and Oyo in the urban centers especially decisions on the economy.A whole lots of Ekiti indigenes formed part of those affected by job loses and parents up country aren't happy about that. To me and I think for people who can see the handwriting on the wall, the influence of these influencers is now less than 10% impact on results. Let me tell you these two things; the southwest people voted GEJ in presidential poll in 2011 and voted ACN in others, also as much as millions of dollars spent by certain candidate in APC primary he still lost. Can you decipher that two things could be at play; Loyalty and personal determination. Am saying saying it again that if GEJ bank on votes from the south west as the winning stroke then the game is over for him because he must have to win in 3 states convincingly and that looks like winning in Lagos, Oyo and Ogun, you know how difficult that will be. To the North, you can mark my word and come back after the election, except for Plateau and Benue, there is no state in the region that Buhari will not win at least 70% while he will be near 50% in the remaining two. The truth is, its not that Buhari is the savior or that loved, he has huge baggage but Jonathan has not affected the people that much and current economic reality supersede ethnic or religious sentiments even in Kafanchan. 2 Likes |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Nobody: 8:57am On Mar 17, 2015 |
Scatterboss:Oga, I have to correct soome impression. What got Osoba kicked out in 2003 was the combined forces of Obj, OGD and of course Ibikunle Amosun. However, politics is not about what happened yesterday but the strategies of today. In 2007, Amosun contested under ANPP against Daniel, he lost woefully and came 2nd followed by late Otunba Dipo Dina of the AC. In 2011 Amosun left CPC and fused their structure into ACN, he pledged allegiance to Osoba and all other ACN candidates were asked to step down. He never won any primaries. GO CHECK! He rode on Osoba's magnanimity and was also helped by the split within the PDP. Today, the story has changed. The Osoba machinery of 2011 is no longer with Amosun, now with SDP. PDP is no longer divided but united. The major split was between the Kashamu faction(which produced Olurin in 2011) and Daniel faction that procduced GNI of the PDP are now united. While Kashamu is the Financier, Daniel is the mobilizer. That is to say, PDP is a united force on like 5years ago. As for Bankole, hahahahahaha he is politically irrelevant as long as Ogun politics is concerned. The good news is that apart from the fact that Amosun is on his way out, both Pdp and SDP are unapologetic pro-Jonathan. I am yet to see the grassroot person that is mobilising for Buhari in Ogun State(apart from your twitter propaganda). As for Lagos, the truth is that APC have never played catch up position as they are now doing. JK will surprise you. #Remember Ekiti (Modified) 3 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by mrmetoo1: 9:00am On Mar 17, 2015 |
Bruteforce1o1: That made me weak!! Garbage at its peak 1 Like |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by maestroferddi: 9:01am On Mar 17, 2015 |
Missy89:People like you amuse me to no end. When some of us made a call on the Ekiti election, most of you dismissed our informed prediction by telling yourselves what you wanted to hear. We always hear of how the Yorubas are the Medes, the Persians and the ancient Greeks of Africa who therefore are not amenable to entrenched political considerations. By your flawed analysis and assertions, Fayose couldn't have garnered up to 10% of total votes cast in Ekiti. But we all know which way the cat jumped. You guys can keep regaling yourselves with infantile assumptions. At the right moment, we shall see who laughs last. 3 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by integralng: 9:04am On Mar 17, 2015 |
slimmy05:I will not join issues with you.On March 29(if your Otuokean PhD holder will allow election to hold as scheduled)we will come here to do appraisal on the election.If any politician or party has been paying me since 2006 to campaign for them,it means my contributions have been found worthy by them...hence the party's confidence that they will defeat the incumbent at the polls. If your principal(Jona)has spent the stolen money wisely,he would not be afraid of standing an election...I know your personal attack on me is a ploy to derail this thread... |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Nobody: 9:08am On Mar 17, 2015 |
ilugunboy:errrm we can leave out the bold Sir... I am yet to see whether Amosun will get re-elected based on the 2011 A.CN structure(than is now with SDP) or he's banking on the division of PDP(they are now united) or he's banking on incumbency(which history has shown that isn't a major factor). Elections are not only won in urban areas, the rural areas play major role. You need grassroot mobilisers to get that. |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Demdem(m): 9:20am On Mar 17, 2015 |
Bruteforce1o1: BArcanistas thought process is now tailored towards satisfying the dogs in PDP. What a stuupid talk. 1 Like |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Bayswater: 9:23am On Mar 17, 2015 |
MichaelSokoto: Shange! SighBaba! ScamBuhari lol |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Nobody: 9:24am On Mar 17, 2015 |
mandarin:Oga you aren't making sense. Who is mobilising for Buhari in Oyo state? Ladoja of Accord is unapologetice pro-GEJ, Akala of LP same, Makinde of SDP the same and of course PDP. What structures does APC and Buhari have in Oyo? Which Senator do they have at presennt-Zero. How many reps do they have? Very few. Who will mobilise for GEJ or who is doing so? Even Ajimobi knows very well that he's on his way out, hence, he kept appointing Obas Children into his cabinet as if that will help him. When GEJ was in IB and Ogbomoso, he was well receieved even by the monarchs(but I don't want to premise my judgement on that). As for Ogun State I have said repeatedly on this. For Lagos, it is very funny how you assume because several key factors plus people on ground favors GEJ. People vote for candidates based on their own judgement, who influences them or what did. As for Ekiti, what majorly contributed to the exit of Fayemi was the defection of Bamidele to LP whicj created bad blood among the rank and file of the party. You need grassroot people to mobilise votes, this is where PDP is smarter. As for the North, you keep saying the same thing Buhari/ANPP/CPC fans have been saying since 2003 but the result is different. 1 Like |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by maestroferddi: 9:26am On Mar 17, 2015 |
barcanista:The funniest you get to hear from these guys who are largely ignorant is that no non-Yoruba person has a working knowledge of South West politics. Very laughable, if you ask me. By the time you get to hear from an adult that OGD is a paperweight in Ogun politics, then you realise what you are up against. In today's Ogun state, there are three de facto political leaders in the state viz Amosun, Osoba and of course OGD. Forget about Obasanjo because he has almost zero structure on ground. OGD is from Sagamu and has maintained a vice-like grip on that section of the state. We all know that barring Obasanjo's anti-party activities in 2011, there is no way Amosun would have won the election. Obasanjo and OGD's zero sum game then left Amosun as the beneficiary. It was OBJ's imposition of the unpopular Tunji Olorun that forced Daniel to float PPN barely months to the election. Even with PPN's late entry into the fray, Gbenga Nasiru Isiaka (GNI) gave a more than good account of himself. The three parties viz CAN, PDP and PPN ran somewhat neck to neck. 1 Like |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Bayswater: 9:28am On Mar 17, 2015 |
barcanista: The politics that will play out in Ogun will be that of thuggery. Amosun has touts, kashamu has thugs. Let's see who can out-thug each other. The state might turn out to be the most violent southwestern state in the coming election. |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Scatterboss(m): 9:28am On Mar 17, 2015 |
barcanista: Who introduced OGD to Obasanjo? OGD was a nobody in 2003 but rode on the back of people like Amosun and partly OBJ. Like i said, you only read newspaper to get most of the gist. Go and find out about the tribunal case of OGD and Amosun in that same 2007, it was a clear rigged election and more reason why OGD never enjoy his 2nd tenure, it was the every time battle of that tribunal case until it was struck down by the oga at the top in 2010. I know OGD personally, and have best friends who work with him since 2003. Most of them are in UK and some here in the state, they are frat men that intimidate people during his time and can no longer stay in that Ogun state. OGD is no mobilizer, stop saying what you dont know. OGD is just a mobilizer of fratmen and nothing more, his battered image is still hunting him till now coupled with the fact that it was no secret that he is not from Sagamu but from Delta state. Osoba and co allowed Amosun cos of his soaring popularity then when he tussled with OGD, the talk of the town was that OGD betrayed Amosun after sponsoring his 2003 elections. You mean same Ijebu Igbo Kashamu? AHahahahahahaha. Lwkmd. Ogun politics is more than Ijebu Igbo were Buruji settle people with rice and money. We are talking of Ifo, Ado/odo ota, Obafemi Owode, Ijebu and Sagamu(with plenty Hausa) and remote part of Ilaro and co where there are many voters. Yemi Osinbajo is the son of the soil, a son inlaw of Awolowo. The story in town(according to my friends in Ijebu) is that they are voting Buhari cos of Osinbajo, and since Buhari allowed Idiagbon run things without interference then Osinbajo will be given free will to perform, same sentiment you people in the SS and SE used to vote GEJ, so they are also voting for there son. As for Lagos, its a done job already for Ambode. 3 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by integralng: 9:31am On Mar 17, 2015 |
barcanista:In 2003,Asiwaju Tinubu with one AD Senator Tokunbo Afikuyomi(when Senators Wahab Dosunmu and Adeseye Ogunlewe who had earlier been elected on the platform of the Tinubu's AD defected to the PDP) defeated the best,the finest and the most influential PDP member in Lagos(dead or alive)in the person Funsho Williams. If your Obadara was that fecund and influential,while was he not presented as the Guber candidate of the A CN that time,considering the fact that Amosun met him in the A CN? |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by maestroferddi: 9:33am On Mar 17, 2015 |
Pasted below is the work I deed few months ago on the likely scenario that would play out in the SW. Please note that the author of this thread viz barcanista was in the APC when I did the work. Enjoy below: https://www.nairaland.com/2094296/pundits-analysis-electoral-probabilities-south/2 |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Scatterboss(m): 9:34am On Mar 17, 2015 |
Bayswater: Bro, OGD controlled more tout than Amosun in 2011 and he lost. He was in control of all major frat men in Ogun state. Bucaneers, Eiye and Aiye. He financed them and even do peace talk for them, but Amosun chased most of them away. The sentiment now is that OGD caused all the mayhem in Ijebu cos Aiye and Eiyes keep killing each other in Ijebu and many natives do call them OGD boys. 1 Like |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Nobody: 9:37am On Mar 17, 2015 |
maestroferddi:abeg no even call Obasanjo for Ogun Politics. He's irrelevant, even Kuye Martins get mouth pass am. In Ogun State, who mobilises more than OGD? As at today Kashamu even pledged to allow OGD to control the PDP campaign in Ogun State. The APC fans don't understand the power of political influence. A new PPN won seats in the State House and Federal House of Representative in 2003. How many seat did Amosun's ANPP win in 2007? ZERO! Amosun is only enjoying incumbency, the SDP looked like a party to inflict injuries on APC, we also have a united PDP. Amosun will be lucky to come second in the election. He isn't on ground, he used people's structure and those ppl are no longer with him. |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Nobody: 9:39am On Mar 17, 2015 |
barcanista: The rural areas in Ogun states are close to most urban centers...Ogun state is not a One-town state. These so called rural people feed a lot from information from their children that lives in the towns...they know the insecurity that pervaded the state from Ijebu Ode to Abeokuta before Amosun ......the woman in Itoku market that sells Adire can see how Amosun has transformed her market...the man that works in Oke Mosan but lives in Ijaiye can see how the bridge built by AMosun has reduced his daily stress of commuting....Ogun people goes home daily from other parts of Nigeria and they continually marvel at the infrastructural transformation the state is witnessing. I will advise you to take a trip to Abeokuta and talk to common folks......go to Ijebu Ode and discuss with the people and ask between SIA and GNI....( Odunsi of SDP is not in contention) who they will cast their votes for....or between GEJ and GMB....who wins thier votes. All this your armchair analysis is just too pedestrian. 1 Like |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Bruteforce1o1: 9:40am On Mar 17, 2015 |
Demdem: Was surprised anyway. As stated by Scatterboss, barca rely mostly on newspaper and nairaland gist about Ogun politics. I am not from there but i schooled there during the time of Osoba and OGD first term in office, Amosun is one stubborn governor thaf have the grassroot behind him. I dont know how GEJ is now more popular than Amosun. @mod, unban my moniker ooooo. 3 Likes |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by emiye(m): 9:41am On Mar 17, 2015 |
barcanista:The boldened is not true, there are other fallacies in the post i chose not to argue, except this misplaced fact. |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Nobody: 9:45am On Mar 17, 2015 |
Bayswater:Again these people keep forgeting SDP. Politics of Ogun state is not between APC and PDP alone, the SDP may end up the beneficiary. One surety is that the APC isn't on ground. PDP and SDP are the parties on ground. ApC is only in Amosan Govt House |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Scatterboss(m): 9:48am On Mar 17, 2015 |
barcanista: Now this is funny. OGD ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Nobody: 9:49am On Mar 17, 2015 |
Scatterboss:You are right. OGD's open romance with those Cult boys during his tenure in office wasnt a secret. I was still a student at OOU then. Amosun was the one that chased them away and brought tranquility to Ogun state 1 Like |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Nobody: 9:51am On Mar 17, 2015 |
Scatterboss:Oga, OGÐ's major challenger in 2007 was Ótunba Dipo Dina of AC and not 3rd placed Amosun of ANPP. Dina was with the machinery of Osoba, if he wasn't killed, hed have been their flagbearer in 2011. You keep talking of Amosun like he has his own structure. How many seat has he won in parliament on his own? Why must you distort history? |
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