ilugunboy:


Why are you lying carelessly like this??
Below is a FB post of a very prominent Ogun state indigene about GEJ visit to Awujale....just like in Ogun state, many of these PDP leaders in various states in SW are mostly deceiving GEJ.

The Oba pointedly told him that before any discussion at all he should first reimburse Amosun for the cost of mobalufon bridge done by Amosun across the Expressway....a bridge the Ijebus see as a life and time saver which no previous admin ever thought of doing until Amosun did it.

Never and never you put popularity contest of Amosun and GEJ on the same page in Ogun state.

Tell me a strong grassroot mobilizer working for GEJ in Ogun Central presently now...even Caterpillar (bankole dad) prefers Amosun to continue.

In Ogun Central...Buhari will win...Ogun East...Buhari will win as their son is on the ticket ( Kashamu can barely do nothing ) and in Ogun West...GNI factor is completely negligible as the people don't really connect with him since the see his coming as the return of OGD...

All in all....APC will coast home comfortably in Ogun states in both the governorship and Presidential elections.

I will advise you to stop discussing the politics of the SW....doing so will only keep exposing the level of your ignorance about the undercurrent of politics of the region.

maestroferddi:
Just like Doyin Okupe said in one media chat, time-honoured trends invariably play out in politics.

There are pundits and analysts who have in this game for so long. We don't bandy words with the vociferous crowd but rely the fact that the future always vindicate the objective.

This piece mirrors an earlier expose' I did on the likely outcome of the election in the South West. As is expected, I was barracked and called names.

barcanista:
@ the bold, whoever secures the votes of the electorate is half way smiling to victory.

Bayswater:


Angry? No, I'm not. March 28 is just around the corner.

slimmy05:
Stop constituting nuisance, and stop defaming the brilliant young man who has devoted his time in educating miscreants like you. You think everyone is as cheap as you? Don't know why these APC paid agent are pained this much. It further proves Barcanista was the informed one amongst them all.

Barcanista, leave them with their usual propaganda and cheap blackmail.

ilugunboy:


Why are you lying carelessly like this??
Below is a FB post of a very prominent Ogun state indigene about GEJ visit to Awujale....just like in Ogun state, many of these PDP leaders in various states in SW are mostly deceiving GEJ.

The Oba pointedly told him that before any discussion at all he should first reimburse Amosun for the cost of mobalufon bridge done by Amosun across the Expressway....a bridge the Ijebus see as a life and time saver which no previous admin ever thought of doing until Amosun did it.

Never and never you put popularity contest of Amosun and GEJ on the same page in Ogun state.

Tell me a strong grassroot mobilizer working for GEJ in Ogun Central presently now...even Caterpillar (bankole dad) prefers Amosun to continue.

In Ogun Central...Buhari will win...Ogun East...Buhari will win as their son is on the ticket ( Kashamu can barely do nothing ) and in Ogun West...GNI factor is completely negligible as the people don't really connect with him since the see his coming as the return of OGD...

All in all....APC will coast home comfortably in Ogun states in both the governorship and Presidential elections.

I will advise you to stop discussing the politics of the SW....doing so will only keep exposing the level of your ignorance about the undercurrent of politics of the region.

barcanista:
Oga, you narrowed your agument to Ogun state PDP. Who in Ogun State mobilizes more than OGD? Who influences more than Osoba as at today? Who and who are at the grassroot? While Amosin built infrastructure in Urban areas, can that be said of the rural areas? Even in his Ogun Central he will lose woefully. Who will mobilise votes for him? The machinery that brought him to power in 2011 are no more with him, they are now in the kitty of SDP. It is very easy to type on facebook but what is on ground? In my write up(OP) I made mention of the parties pushing for GEJ which goes beyond his PDP. As at today, APC is only strong in governmeny house. They lost so much in Ogun. In the State House, APC only has 13 seats out of 26. No Senator, just two representative. Senator Obadara has done more project in his constituency than the Governor. Sometimes I laugh at propaganda.

barcanista:
You APC are very funny. You seem to believe things according to your emotions. Amosun is more popular than Jonathan? Bros, Amosun is even grasping for popularity. Buhari is not even talked about in Ogun State by majority of electorates

Bruteforce1o1:


You mean GEJ is more popular than Amosun in Ogun state? I give up.

barcanista:
You sound highly intelligent but we need to understand something. I avoided the use of godfathers, but we can't rule out political influencers. The degree of their influence in persuading electorates may vary but collectively it is of the benefit of the candidate. In the SW the who is who in politics see GEJ Às the anointed one except the APC bloc. In Ogun State, Olu Falae led SDP is one staunch pro-GEJ group. Makinde has never hidden preference for GEJ in Oyo State, likewise other parties. We have Gani Adams and Fasheun of OPC also endorse Jonathan. One question you should ponder is, what relevance does these people enjoy? Even if little, but collectively you know what that means. The battle is APC Vs Others in SW, and at present it doesn't favor APC. Politics is local, political leaders take decisions for some reasons.

As for the north, it is laughable to think that Buhari will sweep 27m. This has always been the position of most analysts since 2003 but the end result is usually disappointing. I don't want to talk much there.

Scatterboss:



This shows you know nothing about Ogun state politics, you only read newspapers to make decision. I am from Eti Osa in Lag while my mum is from Ijebu Ode, been active in Politics of those states since childhood. I have never miss any Ojude Oba cos i also do the horse riding for my mumsy family house(except the last one). Go and find out who sponsored/supported OGD to defeat Osoba in 2003(It was this same AMOSUN). Also, go find out the cause of enmity between Amosun and OGD. During the time of OGD, frat men were like god in the whole Ogun state, he pay them and even do peace talk for them. His commissioner for Youth and sport then, Ozogula was the cordinator of those guys. They always assemble at Stadium everyday and sometimes use Wale Sarander hotel in Ibara GRA close to OBJ hilltop. Its no secret, more reason he was hated by everyone cos they believe he only sponsor cultist and evil men, most of those guys ran away in 2011 when Amosun took over. GNI ruined Gateway Holdings Limited and he can never win in Ogun state, his partly sin is also being a protege of a thief like OGD and also part of the people that ruined Ogun state from 2003-2011. Go ask why he lost under PPN floated by OGD.

Furthermore, there is faction in PDP that people dont even know. The Dimeji Bankole and GNI primary election wahala, just like the same scenerio of Jimi Agbaje in Lagos. Bankole was a speaker and did nothing for the whole Ogun state except the street light from Pansheke to Oluwo(His father's area), its no secret that he is a sworn enemy of OGD (I remember the Sango Ota overhead bridge fight/tussle), that was why he lost out in the primary election won by GNI.

The same Osoba you call a big force lost to paper weight OGD in 2003, SDP candidate now is Odunsi(Senator) /Adesegun (current deputy governor), GNI will even garner more votes than those jokers. As for Lagos, the Tinubu you all hate is still in control and most of you dont know how he run things in Lagos, the Agberos you all yarb all have PVC, market women, civil servant, TeamLagos( Headed by Kwam1 and Saheed Elegushi, the King of Elegushi), and people still love Fashola( The Skills Acquisition and Vocational Centre he started in Lagos was a masterstroke, most unemployed graduate and youth benefited largely from this institution, he built more than 20 of those centers). I still dont know how PDP will win in those 2 states. Lets wait and see.

Bruteforce1o1:


You mean GEJ is more popular than Amosun in Ogun state? I give up.

Missy89:


Your welcome. As you can see, Most of the so called experts on how the Yorubas will vote avoided your post totally. When facts are presented, Junk and half baked Isi ewu analysis will be shredded to bits.

I feel sorry for Jonathan if he is pinning his hopes on the OPC. Any armed illiterate OPC miscreant that tries to interfere with the voting process will be severely dealt with.

Enough said

slimmy05:
Keep lying to yourself you street urchin. Since 2006 running independent company or campaign. I know you lots.

ilugunboy:


Outside what you read.....you obviously know next to nothing about Ogun politics. Most of these players from both sides....I know personally.

You mentioned OGD....huummmmm! I laff.
His main boys in Abeokuta in Adatan / Car wash area are solidly behind Amosun...Bukola ( Osogula) was introduced to OGD by who?

Please I don't want to talk...you once asked me why I rejected my Uncle's offer to contest for a post in Ogun and I told you....I don't want to have enemity with childhood friends.

Bruteforce1o1:


You mean GEJ is more popular than Amosun in Ogun state? I give up.

MichaelSokoto:

Good!
Say "CHANGE"!

mandarin:


Barcanista, I understand your position and persuasion, however, you seem to undermine the power of the individual's and collective frustration that majorly determine what the electorates want.
I just laughed at many comments on the Ekiti election and I will reference it for the sake of clarity on this matter. Fayemi received a shocking defeat irrespective of whatever controversial circumstances that was at play because the civil servants, teachers and local government workers perceived imminent restructuring should he win the election, so they conspired with their wards who are dependants in the country homes to send him away.That was the singular most popular reason for that loss, the people resisted his perceived elitist change program.
However, Ekiti for example is not facing a gubernatorial election and actors in the election are 'outliers' and the situation on ground in the economic life of the state isn't as rosy as they thought.Coupled with the fact that even those in villages are politically informed, my brother, Fayose is not the determinant just like the people just wanted Fayemi out, you never can tell if they want GEJ out now. Let me tell you one secret factor at play, the influence of citizens of those states of Osun, EKiti and Oyo in the urban centers especially decisions on the economy.A whole lots of Ekiti indigenes formed part of those affected by job loses and parents up country aren't happy about that.
To me and I think for people who can see the handwriting on the wall, the influence of these influencers is now less than 10% impact on results. Let me tell you these two things; the southwest people voted GEJ in presidential poll in 2011 and voted ACN in others, also as much as millions of dollars spent by certain candidate in APC primary he still lost. Can you decipher that two things could be at play;
Loyalty and personal determination. Am saying saying it again that if GEJ bank on votes from the south west as the winning stroke then the game is over for him because he must have to win in 3 states convincingly and that looks like winning in Lagos, Oyo and Ogun, you know how difficult that will be.
To the North, you can mark my word and come back after the election, except for Plateau and Benue, there is no state in the region that Buhari will not win at least 70% while he will be near 50% in the remaining two. The truth is, its not that Buhari is the savior or that loved, he has huge baggage but Jonathan has not affected the people that much and current economic reality supersede ethnic or religious sentiments even in Kafanchan.

barcanista:
Oga, I have to correct soome impression.
What got Osoba kicked out in 2003 was the combined forces of Obj, OGD and of course Ibikunle Amosun. However, politics is not about what happened yesterday but the strategies of today. In 2007, Amosun contested under ANPP against Daniel, he lost woefully and came 3rd behind late Otunba Dipo Dina of the AC. In 2011 Amosun left CPC and fused their structure into ACN, he pledged allegiance to Osoba and all other ACN candidates were asked to step down. He never won any primaries. GO CHECK! He rode on Osoba's magnanimity and was also helped by the split within the PDP. Today, the story has changed. The Osoba machinery of 2011 is no longer with Amosun, now with SDP. PDP is no longer divided but united. The major split was between the Kashamu faction(which produced Olurin in 2011) and Daniel faction that procduced GNI of the PDP are now united. While Kashamu is the Financier, Daniel is the mobilizer. That is to say, PDP is a united force on like 5years ago. As for Bankole, hahahahahaha he is politically irrelevant as long as Ogun politics is concerned.

The good news is that apart from the fact that Amosun is on his way out, both Pdp and SDP are unapologetic pro-Jonathan. I am yet to see the grassroot person that is mobilising for Buhari in Ogun State(apart from your twitter propaganda). As for Lagos, the truth is that APC have never played catch up position as they are now doing. JK will surprise you.


#Remember Ekiti

barcanista:
errrm we can leave out the bold Sir... I am yet to see whether Amosun will get re-elected based on the 2011 A.CN structure(than is now with SDP) or he's banking on the division of PDP(they are now united) or he's banking on incumbency(which history has shown that isn't a major factor).

Elections isnt only won in urban areas, the rural areas plays major role. You need grassroot mobilisers to get that.

barcanista:
Oga, I have to correct soome impression.
What got Osoba kicked out in 2003 was the combined forces of Obj, OGD and of course Ibikunle Amosun. However, politics is not about what happened yesterday but the strategies of today. In 2007, Amosun contested under ANPP against Daniel, he lost woefully and came 3rd behind late Otunba Dipo Dina of the AC. In 2011 Amosun left CPC and fused their structure into ACN, he pledged allegiance to Osoba and all other ACN candidates were asked to step down. He never won any primaries. GO CHECK! He rode on Osoba's magnanimity and was also helped by the split within the PDP. Today, the story has changed. The Osoba machinery of 2011 is no longer with Amosun, now with SDP. PDP is no longer divided but united. The major split was between the Kashamu faction(which produced Olurin in 2011) and Daniel faction that procduced GNI of the PDP are now united. While Kashamu is the Financier, Daniel is the mobilizer. That is to say, PDP is a united force on like 5years ago. As for Bankole, hahahahahaha he is politically irrelevant as long as Ogun politics is concerned.

The good news is that apart from the fact that Amosun is on his way out, both Pdp and SDP are unapologetic pro-Jonathan. I am yet to see the grassroot person that is mobilising for Buhari in Ogun State(apart from your twitter propaganda). As for Lagos, the truth is that APC have never played catch up position as they are now doing. JK will surprise you.


#Remember Ekiti

barcanista:
Oga, you narrowed your agument to Ogun state PDP. Who in Ogun State mobilizes more than OGD? Who influences more than Osoba as at today? Who and who are at the grassroot? While Amosin built infrastructure in Urban areas, can that be said of the rural areas? Even in his Ogun Central he will lose woefully. Who will mobilise votes for him? The machinery that brought him to power in 2011 are no more with him, they are now in the kitty of SDP. It is very easy to type on facebook but what is on ground? In my write up(OP) I made mention of the parties pushing for GEJ which goes beyond his PDP. As at today, APC is only strong in governmeny house. They lost so much in Ogun. In the State House, APC only has 13 seats out of 26. No Senator, just two representative. Senator Obadara has done more project in his constituency than the Governor. Sometimes I laugh at propaganda.

Bayswater:


The politics that will play out in Ogun will be that of thuggery.
Amosun has touts, kashamu has thugs. Let's see who can out-thug each other.
The state might turn out to be the most violent southwestern state in the coming election.

maestroferddi:
The funniest you get to hear from these guys who are largely ignorant is that no non-Yoruba person has a working knowledge of South West politics. Very laughable, if you ask me.
By the time you get to hear from an adult that OGD is a paperweight in Ogun politics, then you realise what you are up against.
In today's Ogun state, there are three de facto political leaders in the state viz Amosun, Osoba and of course OGD. Forget about Obasanjo because he has almost zero structure on ground.
OGD is from Sagamu and has maintained a vice-like grip on that section of the state.
We all know that barring Obasanjo's anti-party activities in 2011, there is no way Amosun would have won the election.
Obasanjo and OGD's zero sum game then left Amosun as the beneficiary. It was OBJ's imposition of the unpopular Tunji Olorun that forced Daniel to float PPN barely months to the election. Even with PPN's late entry into the fray, Gbenga Nasiru Isiaka (GNI) gave a more than good account of himself. The three parties viz CAN, PDP and PPN ran somewhat neck to neck.

barcanista:
errrm we can leave out the bold Sir... I am yet to see whether Amosun will get re-elected based on the 2011 A.CN structure(than is now with SDP) or he's banking on the division of PDP(they are now united) or he's banking on incumbency(which history has shown that isn't a major factor).

Elections are not only won in urban areas, the rural areas play major role. You need grassroot mobilisers to get that.

Demdem:


BArcanistas thought process is now tailored towards satisfying the dogs in PDP.
What a stuupid talk.

barcanista:
Oga, I have to correct soome impression.
What got Osoba kicked out in 2003 was the combined forces of Obj, OGD and of course Ibikunle Amosun. However, politics is not about what happened yesterday but the strategies of today. In 2007, Amosun contested under ANPP against Daniel, he lost woefully and came 3rd behind late Otunba Dipo Dina of the AC. In 2011 Amosun left CPC and fused their structure into ACN, he pledged allegiance to Osoba and all other ACN candidates were asked to step down. He never won any primaries. GO CHECK! He rode on Osoba's magnanimity and was also helped by the split within the PDP. Today, the story has changed. The Osoba machinery of 2011 is no longer with Amosun, now with SDP. PDP is no longer divided but united. The major split was between the Kashamu faction(which produced Olurin in 2011) and Daniel faction that procduced GNI of the PDP are now united. While Kashamu is the Financier, Daniel is the mobilizer. That is to say, PDP is a united force on like 5years ago. As for Bankole, hahahahahaha he is politically irrelevant as long as Ogun politics is concerned.

The good news is that apart from the fact that Amosun is on his way out, both Pdp and SDP are unapologetic pro-Jonathan. I am yet to see the grassroot person that is mobilising for Buhari in Ogun State(apart from your twitter propaganda). As for Lagos, the truth is that APC have never played catch up position as they are now doing. JK will surprise you.


#Remember Ekiti

Bayswater:


The politics that will play out in Ogun will be that of thuggery.
Amosun has touts, kashamu has thugs. Let's see who can out-thug each other.
The state might turn out to be the most violent southwestern state in the coming election.

barcanista:
abeg no even call Obasanjo for Ogun Politics. He's irrelevant, even Kuye Martins get mouth pass am. In Ogun State, who mobilises more than OGD? As at today Kashamu even pledged to allow OGD to control the PDP campaign in Ogun State. The APC fans don't understand the power of political influence. A new PPN won seats in the State House and Federal House of Representative in 2003. How many seat did Amosun's ANPP win in 2007? ZERO! Amosun is only enjoying incumbency, the SDP looked like a party to inflict injuries on APC, we also have a united PDP. Amosun will be lucky to come second in the election. He isn't on ground, he used people's structure and those ppl are no longer with him.

Scatterboss:



Bro, OGD controlled more tout than Amosun in 2011 and he lost. He was in control of all major frat men in Ogun state. Bucaneers, Eiye and Aiye. He financed them and even do peace talk for them, but Amosun chased most of them away. The sentiment now is that OGD caused all the mayhem in Ijebu cos Aiye and Eiyes keep killing each other in Ijebu and many natives do call them OGD boys.

Scatterboss:




Who introduced OGD to Obasanjo? OGD was a nobody in 2003 but rode on the back of people like Amosun and partly OBJ. Like i said, you only read newspaper to get most of the gist. Go and find out about the tribunal case of OGD and Amosun in that same 2007, it was a clear rigged election and more reason why OGD never enjoy his 2nd tenure, it was the every time battle of that tribunal case until it was struck down by the oga at the top in 2010. I know OGD personally, and have best friends who work with him since 2003. Most of them are in UK and some here in the state, they are frat men that intimidate people during his time and can no longer stay in that Ogun state. OGD is no mobilizer, stop saying what you dont know. OGD is just a mobilizer of fratmen and nothing more, his battered image is still hunting him till now coupled with the fact that it was no secret that he is not from Sagamu but from Delta state.

Osoba and co allowed Amosun cos of his soaring popularity then when he tussled with OGD, the talk of the town was that OGD betrayed Amosun after sponsoring his 2003 elections. You mean same Ijebu Igbo Kashamu? AHahahahahahaha. Lwkmd. Ogun politics is more than Ijebu Igbo were Buruji settle people with rice and money. We are talking of Ifo, Ado/odo ota, Obafemi Owode, Ijebu and Sagamu(with plenty Hausa) and remote part of Ilaro and co where there are many voters.

Yemi Osinbajo is the son of the soil, a son inlaw of Awolowo. The story in town(according to my friends in Ijebu) is that they are voting Buhari cos of Osinbajo, and since Buhari allowed Idiagbon run things without interference then Osinbajo will be given free will to perform, same sentiment you people in the SS and SE used to vote GEJ, so they are also voting for there son. As for Lagos, its a done job already for Ambode.