barcanista:
Again these people keep forgeting SDP. Politics of Ogun state is not between APC and PDP alone, the SDP may end up the beneficiary. One surety is that the APC isn't on ground. PDP and SDP are the parties on ground. ApC is only in Amosan Govt House

ilugunboy:


The rural areas in Ogun states are close to most urban centers...Ogun state is not a One-town state.

These so called rural people feed a lot from information from their children that lives in the towns...they know the insecurity that pervaded the state from Ijebu Ode to Abeokuta before Amosun ......the woman in Itoku market that sells Adire can see how Amosun has transformed her market...the man that works in Oke Mosan but lives in Ijaiye can see how the bridge built by AMosun has reduced his daily stress of commuting....Ogun people goes home daily from other parts of Nigeria and they continually marvel at the infrastructural transformation the state is witnessing.

I will advise you to take a trip to Abeokuta and talk to common folks......go to Ijebu Ode and discuss with the people and ask between SIA and GNI....( Odunsi of SDP is not in contention) who they will cast their votes for....or between GEJ and GMB....who wins thier votes.

All this your armchair analysis is just too pedestrian.

barcanista:
Again these people keep forgeting SDP. Politics of Ogun state is not between APC and PDP alone, the SDP may end up the beneficiary. One surety is that the APC isn't on ground. PDP and SDP are the parties on ground. ApC is only in Amosan Govt House

Scatterboss:


Ogun state is not Abeokuta alone. SDP is only popular in Egba cos of Osoba. I cant stop laughing at your post, dont wanna argue with you anymore.

barcanista:
Oga you aren't making sense. Who is mobilising for Buhari in Oyo state? Ladoja of Accord is unapologetice pro-GEJ, Akala of LP same, Makinde of SDP the same and of course PDP. What structures does APC and Buhari have in Oyo? Which Senator do they have at presennt-Zero. How many reps do they have? Very few. Who will mobilise for GEJ or who is doing so? Even Ajimobi knows very well that he's on his way out, hence, he kept appointing Obas Children into his cabinet as if that will help him. When GEJ was in IB and Ogbomoso, he was well receieved even by the monarchs(but I don't want to premise my judgement on that). As for Ogun State I have said repeatedly on this. For Lagos, it is very funny how you assume because several key factors plus people on ground favors GEJ. People vote for candidates based on their own judgement, sho influences them or what did.
As for Ekiti, what majorly contributed to the exit of Fayemi was the defection of Bamidele to LP whicj created bad blood among the rank and file of the party. You need grassroot people to mobilise votes, this is where PDP is smarter.

As for the North, you keep saying the same thing Buhari/ANPP/CPC fans have been saying since 2003 but the result is different.

SirShymexx:


Lol.

You've got time to waste on an obtuse illiterate, with pay-as-you-speak conjectures induced by asinine rhetoric.

I'll like to read Uncle Gbawe's analysis (since Pukkah, the big Uncle eGuerilla, and dapper don Kats aren't regulars anymore). Not some vacuous oaf who just started learning how to put words together a few months ago...and had to beg for protection over his redundant opinions on a faceless forum.

lakhadimar:
You definately dont know what you are talking about. What do you mean by APC is not on ground?

Few weeks ago. Governor Ibikunle Amoun and Prof Yemi Osibanjo took their campaign to Ijebu waterside, a journey of about 2hours on boat. I doubt if PDP, SDP or any of those mushroom parties have campaigned inside the interiors of Ogun state as APC

barcanista:
Listen very well. I specifically mentioned the action of political leaders. Accord isn't incumbent in oyo nor SDP in Ogun. But their leaders are resolved to work with Jonathan. This is the same in Labor in Oyo and other SW states. I am a keen observer of SW politics, I haven't seen powerful blocs endorse Buhari. You guys will be shocked in Oyo, Ogun, Lagos, Ondo and Ekiti States. APC isn't loved by any formidable party in Ogun. This is a fact

barcanista:
Oga, OGÐ's major challenger in 2007 was Ótunba Dipo Dina of AC and not 3rd placed Amosun of ANPP. Dina was with the machinery of Osoba, if he wasn't killed, hed have been their flagbearer in 2011. You keep talking of Amosun like he has his own structure. How many seat has he won in parliament on his own? Why must you distort history?

barcanista:
I don't based my positions on assumption but on events.

Scatterboss:


Now this is funny. OGD? Ahahahahahaha

Barcanista is a ND man. Is like u saying in Rivers, who mobilizes more than Peter Odili

Bruteforce1o1:


Was surprised anyway. As stated by Scatterboss, barca rely mostly on newspaper and nairaland gist about Ogun politics. I am not from there but i schooled there during the time of Osoba and OGD first term in office, Amosun is one stubborn governor thaf have the grassroot behind him. I dont know how GEJ is now more popular than Amosun.



@mod, unban my moniker ooooo.

Scatterboss:


We are talking of OGD vs Amosun and not Dipo Dina. Everyone knows Dipo was a strong force and reason the OGD squad arranged a Funsho Williams style for him. What history? We are talking of live politics as a witness and you talking newspaper propaganda, so you mean the same Amosun that introduced a nonentity OGD to Obasanjo and co in 2003 to defeat Osoba is a nobody. Go ask about the tribunal case of OGD vs Amosun in 2007 and why it was struck out. SIMPLE! 2015 election is between Amosun/Osoba and OGD is even out of it. GNI will lose woefully, he destroyed gateway holdings during the time of OGD and people believe a vote for him is automatically for OGD.

I dont need to argue with you anymore, we shall see in few weeks time.

barcanista:
Oga, I have to correct soome impression.
What got Osoba kicked out in 2003 was the combined forces of Obj, OGD and of course Ibikunle Amosun. However, politics is not about what happened yesterday but the strategies of today. In 2007, Amosun contested under ANPP against Daniel, he lost woefully and came 3rd behind late Otunba Dipo Dina of the AC. In 2011 Amosun left CPC and fused their structure into ACN, he pledged allegiance to Osoba and all other ACN candidates were asked to step down. He never won any primaries. GO CHECK! He rode on Osoba's magnanimity and was also helped by the split within the PDP. Today, the story has changed. The Osoba machinery of 2011 is no longer with Amosun, now with SDP. PDP is no longer divided but united. The major split was between the Kashamu faction(which produced Olurin in 2011) and Daniel faction that procduced GNI of the PDP are now united. While Kashamu is the Financier, Daniel is the mobilizer. That is to say, PDP is a united force on like 5years ago. As for Bankole, hahahahahaha he is politically irrelevant as long as Ogun politics is concerned.

The good news is that apart from the fact that Amosun is on his way out, both Pdp and SDP are unapologetic pro-Jonathan. I am yet to see the grassroot person that is mobilising for Buhari in Ogun State(apart from your twitter propaganda). As for Lagos, the truth is that APC have never played catch up position as they are now doing. JK will surprise you.


#Remember Ekiti

Scatterboss:


So you know more than people on ground? Your argument are based on newspaper stories, Amosun that refused to reconcile with Osoba is no fool, he even allow his deputy to decamp and ignore him. Hehehehehe. Politics of Ogun is local and secretive.

maestroferddi:
You guys have tunnel vision.

Amosun would probably win re-election but that does not signify that Ogun is done and dusted for APC.

There are a lot of political heavyweights fighting a battle of survival/relevance here just like @Baywater rightly pointed out.

It would amount to living in a fool's paradise to assume that PDP will not give a good account of itself in Ogun. Not with the likes of Buruj Kashamu, Osoba, Gbenga Daniel, Gbenga Kaka and two other senators.

I am sure that even Amosun himself knows what he is up against and therefore will never display the ignorance most people are exhibiting here.

maestroferddi:
You guys have tunnel vision.

Amosun would probably win re-election but that does not signify that Ogun is done and dusted for APC.

There are a lot of political heavyweights fighting a battle of survival/relevance here just like @Baywater rightly pointed out.

It would amount to living in a fool's paradise to assume that PDP will not give a good account of itself in Ogun. Not with the likes of Buruj Kashamu, Osoba, Gbenga Daniel, Gbenga Kaka and two other senators.

I am sure that even Amosun himself knows what he is up against and therefore will never display the ignorance most people are exhibiting here.

torkaka:


. . . . . . .@bolded . . . . .bloody liar . . . . . . .results for Ogun in 2007 were as follows;

PDP Gbenga Daniel 426,132

ANPP Ibikunle Amosun 135,149

AC Dipo Dina 79,915

DPA Gbenga Kaka 6,403

AD Deji Osinowo 2,521

PPA Oluwaseun Omotayo 1,817

NCP Lanre Banjo 579

torkaka:


. . . . . . .@bolded . . . . .bloody liar . . . . . . .results for Ogun in 2007 were as follows;

PDP Gbenga Daniel 426,132

ANPP Ibikunle Amosun 135,149

AC Dipo Dina 79,915

DPA Gbenga Kaka 6,403

AD Deji Osinowo 2,521

PPA Oluwaseun Omotayo 1,817

NCP Lanre Banjo 579

barcanista:
Oga, I have to correct soome impression.
What got Osoba kicked out in 2003 was the combined forces of Obj, OGD and of course Ibikunle Amosun. However, politics is not about what happened yesterday but the strategies of today. In 2007, Amosun contested under ANPP against Daniel, he lost woefully and came 3rd behind late Otunba Dipo Dina of the AC. In 2011 Amosun left CPC and fused their structure into ACN, he pledged allegiance to Osoba and all other ACN candidates were asked to step down. He never won any primaries. GO CHECK! He rode on Osoba's magnanimity and was also helped by the split within the PDP. Today, the story has changed. The Osoba machinery of 2011 is no longer with Amosun, now with SDP. PDP is no longer divided but united. The major split was between the Kashamu faction(which produced Olurin in 2011) and Daniel faction that procduced GNI of the PDP are now united. While Kashamu is the Financier, Daniel is the mobilizer. That is to say, PDP is a united force on like 5years ago. As for Bankole, hahahahahaha he is politically irrelevant as long as Ogun politics is concerned.

The good news is that apart from the fact that Amosun is on his way out, both Pdp and SDP are unapologetic pro-Jonathan. I am yet to see the grassroot person that is mobilising for Buhari in Ogun State(apart from your twitter propaganda). As for Lagos, the truth is that APC have never played catch up position as they are now doing. JK will surprise you.
Results of Guber Election in Ogun State in 2007.
Gbenga Daniel (426,000) ,Ibikunle Amosun (135,149), Dipo Dina (79,915). So how do you arrive at your Amosun coming third?Please do get your facts right before you come to public forum to spew wrong information.
#Remember Ekiti

Gbawe2:


Don't pay attention to that charlatan. He knows nothing and tries to guess as he goes along. Amosun is an underground gangster. I won't mention names but those who know Ogun politics will know how many 'enemies' Amosun has 'wasted' to be where he is today. The forces that congregated against him was no joke. It included people who staked their political future to take Amosun down by leaving the APC to join the Osoba SDP brigandage against the Ogun State Governor yet they have serious regrets today because they have realised that Osoba is nothing but a bitter, disgruntled, frustrated, dishonourable and very dishonest old man.

Some of these guys, underground, are even trying to now come back to the APC after Osoba used, extorted and dumped them. We all know the OP is an uninformed joker and the gullible children here can entertain his ego but every informed Nairalander knows he is someone with no credibility or useful knowledge about anything let alone SW politics which is a very complex 'smorgasbord' of permanent interests.

Gbawe2:


You are one of the few posters here I like and respect. This is the only reason I am even responding. I have absolutely no interest in contributing my opinion on any thread started by this OP. Doing so is like a father with young children having to 'hang out' with a hardened and unrepentant paedophile. The OP, as you know now, is a totally disgusting human being any decent and morally upright person , whether APC or PDP, will avoid.

Suffice to say, as is the case with unprincipled mercenaries like FFK, OP is delusional attempting to speak for the SW. I can tell you all that majority of average Yorubas do not have a single reason to vote for GEJ. Not one and they are determined to resist and reject him. People can believe me if they want or not but I can authoritatively state here that it is the overwhelming defeat GEJ was facing in the SW that necessitated the much-condemned election postponement. They wanted to try and use the 7 extra weeks to buy every opinion leader in the SW to help them deliver a GEJ win. It is not working so far and GEJ is on a 'long thing'. "Maga don come" things. Anyone giving credibility to the analysis of the hungry OP is simply naive.

OP is a discredited character who works on 'guestimates' while trying to be the insider he will never be. He is the same character who started panicking here about Buhari losing the APC primaries because info was put in the public domain, by PDP desperados, that Atiku had successfully out-bribed all others and was on course to defeat Buhari. Him and others will confess I told them it was all hogwash. I was privy to information that made me realise Buhari would win overwhelmingly because the SW 'big boys' were working for him and would not entertain any derailment of their 'mission'. I told them this but many did not believe me. Yet we all know what happened. It is the same with the upcoming election never mind the delusions of GEJ and his crew.

Similarly, as I predicted the outcome of the APC presidential Primaries and Lagos guber primaries, I am saying here and now that GEJ will not win in the SW if elections are free and fair. On the contrary, the people of the region will disgrace him and the PDP. I can't speak about some things publicly but I will tell you that the PDP, because it is a Party of desperate men and women scared about their future, is operating on 'dutch courage' and pretence bravado. The underground truth is that the APC is not talking much but the Party is fully ready, on all fronts, to counter and overcome the PDP. Who is Gani Adams , Fasehun, FFK, Obanikoro et al? Is it because the Yoruba heavyweight are silent that makes the 'omo ales' think they now run the show? Those who matter in Yoruba land know what they have to do. I will leave it at that. The wise and experienced heads here should ask themselves why Lagos did not fall into PDP hands even under the uber-bully OBJ was. Therein lies the clue to the omerta-style code that will play out to leave the PDP stunned. Imagine silly TANdroid children who are not from the SW pinning their hopes on loquacious, turncoat and desperate opportunists like Fayose, Obanikoro, FFK, Adams et al when the real self-made leaders of the region, that the people respect and obey , have already passed on the message about what must happen. I dey laff. As they say " e go do dem like film".

barcanista:
How true is the phrase "Yoruba won't vote Jonathan"?

The political terrain of the South West is controlled/shared among the Social Democratic Party, Accord Party, All Progressive Congress, People's Democratic Party and the usual dark horse Labour Party. The SDP, PDP, Accord and LP are queuing behind the re-election of President Jonathan. Only the APC is with Muhammadu Buhari. While the SDP and Accord may sound like a lightweight to some readers, indices on ground shows otherwise. A Look at the present political fortunes of pro-Jonathan parties in the SW..

Social Democratic Party
The SDP led by Olu Falae and Osoba is more prominent in Ogun State. All 3 Senators from the state are members of SDP. The party also boasts of 5 out of 9 House of Reps delegation from Ogun state(2 each for PDP and APC), the Deputy Governor, former cabinet members of Amosun, and some state legislators. In other words, neither the APC nor the PDP can boast of any incumbent Senator from Ogun State. SDP is also very prominent in Oyo State with Mr Makinde, a popular millionaire leading its rank. The party is queuing behind Jonathan in the Presidential poll.

Accord Party
Accord Party is more formidable in Oyo State, especially Ibadan. Of the three Senators from Oyo, two(2) are of Accord Party, the other is a PDP man. The party led by the popular charismatic former Governor Ladoja is the leading party for the Oyo State Guber election. As long as Oyo is concerned, Accord Party is a force to be reckoned with. The party is queuing behind Jonathan in the Presidential poll

Labour Party
Labour Party is the usual dark horse in Yoruba politics since 2007. It is prominent in Oyo, Ekiti, Ondo and Ogun States. In Oyo State, it is led by exGovernor Alao Akala who is the Governorship candidate. Akala's stronghold is his Ogbomoso town. The party is also relatively popular in Oyo town and Ibadan of the state. The party is queuing behind Jonathan in the Presidential poll

People's Democratic Party
Peoples' Democratic Party arose from its 2011 misfortune/near extinction to become a force again in 2015. No thanks to the division of its party in Oyo, Ekiti, Lagos and Ogun States. Fortunately for the party, they are now united in Lagos(for the first time since 2006), Ogun State (after 5 years of division), Ekiti and Ondo States(after almost one year of division). In other words, the party is participating in 2015 as a united team- except in Oyo state. In Ogun State, the PDP boasts of two Reps members and about 10 State legislators. In Oyo state, it boasts of one senate seat. In Ekiti, it recently won the Governorship election in all 16 LGA. In Ondo State, the defection of Governor Mimiko and two Senators from the State means a lot to the party. Though it almost caused rift among members of the State chapter of the party. In Lagos state, for the first time since 2005, the party is working together as a team. Jonathan is the PDP Candidate.

Walelavender:
Write-off APC @ your own peril. Why did the South-West (except Osun) vote GEJ(PDP) massively in 2011 on a saturday of the presidential election for them to turn around to vote in Fashola,Amosun,Ajimobi (APC) on the day of the governorship elections. This research doesn't hold water. PDP has had close to 16 years. We need something different and better. We ain't a one party state! Since 1999, this would be the first time the ruling party is catching severe cold. Give the opposition a CHANCE for CHANGE!

Scatterboss:



God bless you for that coded message. The mighty Do or Die Obasanjo was disgraced in Lagos and Ogun, Who the hell is Gani Adams? Cant stop laughing.

Gbawe2:


Eyan mi, the OP is an egotistical, desperate and uninformed charlatan who relies on newspaper info alone. Even in the SDP camp, as we speak now, there is serious backstabbing and underground treachery going on. Ogun State politics? I dey laff.

ElFenomeno1:



Flawed analysis!

LP, SDP and Accord parties are all political light weighted bodies who lack regional spread, popularity and credence across the SW geopolitical zone!

They will fail massively ..... I predict only a few lawmaker seats will be shared amongst those lightweight parties in the region!

Ogun State, the only area likely to do something tangible in the house of reps.... Senate and Governorship and Presidential will be swept by APC!

In Oyo State, APC will muscle most of the prominent seats in the state and the presidential polls should go to APC. The buber will be fiercely contested but i expect Ajimobi to shade it!

In Ekiti, we will witness surprises..... and Ondo as well.. Bookmark this!

Lagos will vote enmasse for APC at all levels and the rest of the South Western States will also swing APC way!

slimmy05:
What happened in 2011. Digest the report of the 2011

barcanista:
I was in Abk few days ago bros.

Scatterboss:



God bless you for that coded message. The mighty Do or Die Obasanjo was disgraced in Lagos and Ogun, Who the hell is Gani Adams? Cant stop laughing.