PapaBrowne:


No sir, elections don't work straight up like that. Benue and Nassarawa are PDP fair and square. Osun state hasn't paid salaries but that wouldn't mean PDP would trump APC there. For Akume, Gemade and Ortom, thier impact would be felt, but not so much as to improve radically to meet your 65% for APC postulations---impossible. Even core northern states like Gombe would probably superceed that postulation.

PapaBrowne:


I like your assumptions but they are basically off the cuff and based on what you feels. Thats the way I feel too but the realities are different.
Your assumptions negate the fact that most voters are rural and don't make thier decisions on the same performance indices as do city dwellers. Benue is strong for GEJ. I understand the Akume and Gemade factor but it will be same as it was in 2011 and most of those votes would come from city dwellers. As for Nassarawa, the ethno religious sensitivity has changed as the previously laid back Eggon tribe and others are less likely to support a Fulani.
I agree with you on the south east and south south but the 85-15% benchmark was for statistical balance. South West is the battleground. Turnout of Ibos and south south indigenes would be a major factor. Plus Jimi Agbaje's followers would have a play. About the south west, forget what you read on the papers. Take a look at Osun state election results. Omisore scored 300,000 votes vs the incumbent Aregbesola's 400,000 votes. That's the kind of pattern SW politics follows.

All in all, let the ideal man win!

Obiagelli:

You seem to forget that senatorial elections holds on the same day as the presidential election. Akume and gemade i believe are both running for Senate.

DRANOEL:


infact the senatorial elections running on the same day makes it more interesting, Akume is standing against a weak candidate, while Gemade is standing against Suswam (who is even considered a liability to Jonathan and the governorship candidate)

dabigwalls:
I see GEJ winning with between 5 to 7% overall lead. It is important for the winner to have 25% in at least 24 states, please note.

Former Ministers and political appointees will also be a factor in these elections. There have been quite a number of appointments under GEJ - that factor will also add up to the incumbency edge.

There are a couple of deals that have been struck beneath the table and out of our view - they are usually the silent deciders of electoral victories especially when the contest is stiff like this.

Over the last 6 weeks leading to elections, who has worked harder? Goodluck or Buhari?

Obiagelli:

It will be a miracle for gej to win benue, a lot has changed since 2011.

PapaBrowne:


Interesting assumptions. Wish you understood the dynamics. If Benue is dissatisfied with GEJ, what you would see is low turnout and not support for GMB. At the core of voting decisions in the middle belt is not so much Boko haram as it is Fulani herdsmen. Benueans are farmers and have been getting the beating from Fulani herdsmen. Voting a Fulani is the last thing on the Benue farmer's mind. Now that's in the rural areas.
In the cities its a different ball game. And most of the chatter you get is from the cities. However, majority of votes come from rural areas.
Akume, Ortom and Gemade would have an impact, but that's why you see the 25% allocation for Benue.

BluIvy:


@Papa Brown,you did a good job with you predictions but you are also killing and making your own predictions insignificant if you are holding your word and understanding as the only superior argument.

Predictions and assumptions work a lot using all information available to you at that moment and going forward. For instance you have 4-5 people from Venue & Nasarawa saying your assumptions are flawed. Right there stats beat you by 5:1 but instead of filtering it into your assumption you are arguing it. Same with Kaduna & Lags, Edo.

Your assumptions then have too much possibility of being insignificant if you do not filter in even slightly such information available.

PapaBrowne:


I agree with you. The statistics are seperate from my opinions. What I shared that you quoted is my opinion which is seperate from my assumptions which were based on historical data and current realities as well as other permutations.

For instance, I can confident express an opinion that Jonathan would score above 95% in Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom and Cross River, but they were placed statistically at 85% for GEJ.

All in all, I agree with you. I ought to assess and probably accept the opinions about Benue since they posters appear to be on ground. However, the practical realities don't point in that direction.

sincerenigerian:
Op, thank you for this postulation of yours.

I have my own statistics that I've been trying to bring to the forum. Mine is quite close to what you have. I am an ardent APC and Buhari supporter and I don't support the notion that it is going to be a landslide for Buhari despite my belief of Buhari winning this forthcoming election. I believe a Buhari's narrow victory over Jonathan is going to happen. I am seeing large turn-out in the North and low turn-out in the South-west and South-east. I believe the turn-out of South-south is going to be higher than that of Southwest. I don't see Buhari winning more than 17 States while Jonathan winning 19. Jonathan is expected to win more states than Buhari but Buhari will surely have between 2 million votes and 4 million votes more than Jonathan.

My little disagreement with you is putting Adamawa and Nasarawa in GEJ's column. Political landscape has changed in those areas. The Christians in the Adamawa axis are very angry with Jonathan and are willing to vote for Buhari. Buhari won in Nasarawa last time and he's going to win there again. I don't see how Jonathan is getting up to 10% of the votes in any of the North-western states except Kaduna where GEJ is expected to be competitive.

As it stands today, Buhari is going to win all the States he won in 2011 and add Lagos, Ogun, Kogi, Kwara, Oyo, and Adamawa to his column this time around. Buhari is expected to do well in South-south and South-east. I have been surprised to see a lot of Igbos supporting Buhari this time around, unlike in 2011. There is so much anger against the incumbent. People really want change and ready to give Buhari and APC a chance. They want to see what change looks like.

PapaBrowne:


Interesting assumptions. Wish you understood the dynamics. If Benue is dissatisfied with GEJ, what you would see is low turnout and not support for GMB. At the core of voting decisions in the middle belt is not so much Boko haram as it is Fulani herdsmen. Benueans are farmers and have been getting the beating from Fulani herdsmen. Voting a Fulani is the last thing on the Benue farmer's mind. Now that's in the rural areas.
In the cities its a different ball game. And most of the chatter you get is from the cities. However, majority of votes come from rural areas.
Akume, Ortom and Gemade would have an impact, but that's why you see the 25% allocation for Benue.

warriiboguy:
These are my own analysis :
North Central. GEJ 40%. GMB 60%
North East. GEJ 20%. GMB 80%
North West. GEJ 30%. GMB 70%
South South. GEJ 80%. GMB 20%
South East. GEJ 80%. GMB 20%
South West. GEJ 40%. GMB 60%.
Putting into consideration the number of pvc collected I think GMB would be returned as the. Winner.

BluIvy:
Basic data analysis point of departure should be previous elections data as a basis, more so because its still the same candidates running, then points to consider:

1. Political climate changes - Against & For each candidate, in Each State e.g. Running on the same platform or different platform

2. Economical climate

3. Religious influence

4. Cultural influence vs. Educational awareness

4. Perception changers / Deal breakers or Game changers

5. Probability of fairness & credibility of the voting itself in each state

PapaBrowne:


Interesting assumptions. Wish you understood the dynamics. If Benue is dissatisfied with GEJ, what you would see is low turnout and not support for GMB. At the core of voting decisions in the middle belt is not so much Boko haram as it is Fulani herdsmen. Benueans are farmers and have been getting the beating from Fulani herdsmen. Voting a Fulani is the last thing on the Benue farmer's mind. Now that's in the rural areas.
In the cities its a different ball game. And most of the chatter you get is from the cities. However, majority of votes come from rural areas.
Akume, Ortom and Gemade would have an impact, but that's why you see the 25% allocation for Benue.

PapaBrowne:


I like your assumptions but they are basically off the cuff and based on what you feels. Thats the way I feel too but the realities are different.
Your assumptions negate the fact that most voters are rural and don't make thier decisions on the same performance indices as do city dwellers. Benue is strong for GEJ. I understand the Akume and Gemade factor but it will be same as it was in 2011 and most of those votes would come from city dwellers. As for Nassarawa, the ethno religious sensitivity has changed as the previously laid back Eggon tribe and others are less likely to support a Fulani.
I agree with you on the south east and south south but the 85-15% benchmark was for statistical balance. South West is the battleground. Turnout of Ibos and south south indigenes would be a major factor. Plus Jimi Agbaje's followers would have a play. About the south west, forget what you read on the papers. Take a look at Osun state election results. Omisore scored 300,000 votes vs the incumbent Aregbesola's 400,000 votes. That's the kind of pattern SW politics follows.

All in all, let the ideal man win!

IVORY2009:


you are a real researcher, the money spent on your education was not wasted!

tuniski:
your postulation is so wrong. No state in the federation that GEJ won't get at least 25%. Furthermore, only kwara will be a marginal gain for Buhari due to the saraki's factor in NC. Buhari won't get 5% in the entire SS and SE. GEJ will win at least a state in the NW and get over 32% of total votes there. NE is a 50/50. Bottomline SW to swing GeJ and a total margin of 6 to 8million win for GEJ. Buhari will try but, will be rejected the 4th and final time! Nigeria sai Goodluck!

emiye:


Benue state had the ACN/APC broom structure since 2011, that structure produced a sitting senator, infact, Ribadu had a better showing in Benue than his adamawa state,the gubernatorial election in 2011 was also a close one between ACN and PDP. It has two sitting senators now in APC, all contesting elections on the same day, infact, Benue is a perfect example of where contest is like PDP vs PDP in APC. The APC gubernatorial candidate is also a former minister and PDP man, the current governor perceived failed performance of 8 years will take its toll a bit, to now award 75% to PDP in such contest is way too optimistic .

Nassarawa State has the CPC structure that produced a governor, whatever that structure has lost, it had gained more, if not, the governor would have been impeached. Bear in mind, that GEJ will not get a better result than 2011 in any state, he didnt get 60% in 2011 when a PDP structure was in charge of the state, he wont get it now.

Thread carefully with the Osun state election, Omisore had bloc votes from Ife, his place of origin, which has like 8 local government , it wont necessarily translate to bloc votes for GEJ, Civil servants revolt against Aregbesola also had its impact in the gubernatorial election, to what effect, it will have in 2015 presidential election is subject to varying perceptions, but it is better to place it at neutral.

lakesidepapa:


u can lie o, Ife have just 4 local government while Ijesha have 6 local government and ijesha is a very stronghold of Apc

PapaBrowne:
It's barely 10 days to the elections.... I can't wait for it to be over and lets get back to normalcy!!
But before then, lets do a state by state analysis and lets come out with permutations and postulations as to the likely winners!!

I have taken time to study the different electoral landscape, I have spoken with people from virtually all Geopolitical zones and I have used both historical electoral data as well as current realities to arrive at my postulations.

Now if you observe, GEJ has been visiting the South West consistently over the last three weeks and has been spending nights on end.....hmmm, It is not for nothing. If APC is wise, they wouldn't take that for granted.
This election would be decided by two factors 1) The south West voters. 2) Voter turnout. And whosoever wins will do so by a very narrow margin. It is a very close election. At the end of this analysis, you'll understand why.


These stats are based on INEC PVC collection rates(12th March 2015) and are approximated to the nearest decimal. Also it is based on an assumption of 100% turnout with is practically impossible.

NORTH CENTRAL
States-------------PVC Collected--------GEJ--%----Num---------------------GMB--%-----Num
Benue--------------------1.6 m-------------------75----1.2m-----------------------------25-----0.4m
FCT-----------------------0.6 m-------------------50----0.3m-----------------------------50-----0.3m
Kogi----------------------0.9 m-------------------60----0.5m-----------------------------40-----0.4m
Kwara--------------------0.9 m-------------------40----0.5m-----------------------------60-----0.4m
Nassarawa---------------1.0 m-------------------60----0.4m-----------------------------40-----0.6m
Niger---------------------1.7 m-------------------30----0.5m-----------------------------70-----1.1m
Plateau-------------------1.5 m-------------------75----1.1m-----------------------------25-----0.4m

______________________________Total GEJ=====4.6m___________Total GMB======3.6m

NORTH EAST
Adamawa-----------------1.4m-------------------55----0.8m-----------------------------45-----0.6m
Bauchi---------------------1.8m-------------------20----0.4m-----------------------------80----1.4m
Borno----------------------1.4m-------------------15----0.2m-----------------------------85----1.2m
Gombe---------------------1.1m-------------------30----0.3m-----------------------------70----0.8m
Taraba---------------------1.3m-------------------65----0.9m-----------------------------35----0.5m
Yobe------------------------0.8m------------------15---- 0.1m-----------------------------85----0.7m

_____________________________Total GEJ======2.7M____________Total GMB=====5.2M

NORTH WEST
Jigawa---------------------1.8m-------------------15----0.3m------------------------------85----1.5m
Kaduna--------------------3.2m-------------------45----.1.4m------------------------------55----1.8m
Kano-----------------------4.1m-------------------20----0.8m-------------------------------80----3.3m
Katsina--------------------2.6m-------------------15----0.4m-------------------------------85----2.2m
Kebbi----------------------1.4m-------------------15----0.2m-------------------------------85----1.2m
Sokoto--------------------1.5m--------------------20----0.3m-------------------------------80----1.2m
Zamfara------------------1.4m--------------------15----0.2m-------------------------------85----1.2m

_____________________________Total GEJ======3.6M_____________Total GMB=====11.2M

SOUTH EAST
Abia----------------------1.2m--------------------85----1.0m-------------------------------15----0.2m
Anambra-----------------1.7m--------------------85----1.4m--------------------------------15----0.3m
Ebonyi-------------------0.8m---------------------85----0.7m--------------------------------15----0.1m
Enugu--------------------1.2m---------------------85----1.0m--------------------------------15----0.2m
Imo-----------------------1.7m--------------------80----1.4m--------------------------------20----0.3m

_____________________________Total GEJ======5.5m_____________Total GMB=====1.1m

SOUTH SOUTH
Akwa Ibom--------------1.6----------------------85----1.4m---------------------------------15----0.2m
Bayelsa------------------0.6----------------------85----0.5m---------------------------------15----0.1m
Cross River--------------0.9----------------------85----0.9m---------------------------------15----0.2m
Delta---------------------1.9----------------------85----1.6m---------------------------------15----0.3m
Edo-----------------------1.3----------------------70----0.8m---------------------------------30----0.4m
Rivers--------------------2.1----------------------80----1.7m---------------------------------20----0.4m

____________________________Total GEJ======6.9m______________Total GMB=====1.6m

SOUTH WEST
Ekiti---------------------0.5m---------------------60-----0.3m--------------------------------40----0.2m
Lagos-------------------3.7m----------------------55----2.0m---------------------------------45----1.7m
Ogun--------------------0.9m----------------------40----0.4m---------------------------------60----0.5m
Ondo--------------------1.1m----------------------60----0.7m---------------------------------40----0.4m
Osun--------------------1.0m----------------------35----0.4m---------------------------------65----0.7m
Oyo---------------------1.6m----------------------45----0.7m---------------------------------55----0.9m

____________________________Total GEJ=======4.5M_____________Total GMB======4.4M


Now the totals:
GEJ=== 4.6 + 2.7 + 3.6 + 5.5 +6.9 + 4.5=---- 27.8m
GMB===3.6 +5.2 + 11.2 + 1.1 +1.6 + 4.4=----27.1m

Very very close. Barely 700,000 in difference in GEJ's favour but thats well within a statistical margin of error so it can swing any way.

Good!! Buh check your cross-river data very well, u made a mistake with that, kwara (in my opinion shld be for apc) Buh still. Gud, I will disagree with u on that lagos statistics. I must say u done a gud job with this. Nyc one

warriiboguy:
These are my own analysis :
North Central. GEJ 40%. GMB 60%
North East. GEJ 20%. GMB 80%
North West. GEJ 30%. GMB 70%
South South. GEJ 80%. GMB 20%
South East. GEJ 80%. GMB 20%
South West. GEJ 40%. GMB 60%.
Putting into consideration the number of pvc collected I think GMB would be returned as the. Winner.