Whitehorse:
@onatisi,

You have been spot on with your analysis. The SW did not deliver the knockout blow for Buhari, so he needs to clean out at least 4 NC states with sizeable margins, if not the margins for GEJ from the SE/SS will erase Buhari. Also, GEJ got sizeable numbers in Ekiti to erase any numbers Buhari got in other SW states.

The margins will determine this election.

Good analysis @Whitehorse, but do bear in my mind as I mentioned in an above post, the battle line is now in the NE, if Buhari wins Adamawa/Taraba in addition to the expected wins in Yobe and Borno, I see no way back for GEJ, however if GEJ wins those 2 states and keeps the margin of defeat in Borno and Yobe above 30% and (the big IF) is able to secure 30% in target NW states like Sokoto and Kaduna then the big cooking pot from SS/SE might just do the trick.

You are 100% correct, the margins are key in this election

Ahuitzotl:
Very true....Our biggest fear was landslides in SW but we thank God for his mercies,we can always handle the north.Remember NC is split down the middle,NE is recording low turn out as 1.5million are displaced by BH.Bauchi is under attack by BH and the Army has started a dusk to dawn curfew in three local governments...the odds keep gettin better for the PDP.

I saw some results from the se and the winning margin in a pu was pdp 1200 apc 10, according to reports akpabio has delivered his state with 98% winning margin ,these are the kind of figures that can win elections and not south west apc results of 55% to 45% . Gej dollars I must say did the job it was meant to do in the south west very well.

Tobbiemi:
Dis is rigging. I stay close to nassarawa nd i can tell u dat jona can never win in nasarawa

sorry! Its obvious you fell for their propaganda!! They go on gallivanting on social/ print media to create the impression of huge popularity when they lack structures in the actual sense!! Welcome to reality baby!!!!

ChinemeOkpan and tomakint you are invited to join this wonderful discussion. Thanks

bjdon:


Good analysis @Whitehorse, but do bear in my mind as I mentioned in an above post, the battle line is now in the NE, if Buhari wins Adamawa/Taraba in addition to the expected wins in Yobe and Borno, I see no way back for GEJ, however if GEJ wins those 2 states and keeps the margin of defeat in Borno and Yobe above 30% and (the big IF) is able to secure 30% in target NW states like Sokoto and Kaduna then the big cooking pot from SS/SE might just do the trick.

You are 100% correct, the margins are key in this election

Hmm, 30% win in NW states might be a bit difficult for PGEJ. When is INEC expected to start releasing results officially?

cut007:
sorry! Its obvious you fell for their propaganda!! They go on gallivanting on social/ print media to create the impression of huge popularity when they lack structures in the actual sense!! Welcome to reality baby!!!!

they insulted and abused me yesterday but I kept telling them ,wait for inec final results. Elections results aren't declared on nairaland of facebook it is only inec that has the power to declare an election result. And the main reason is ,none of apc supporters had banked on gej winning any state in the north and they had thought it will be 100% winning for buhari in the north.

Misogynist2014:
Make sure you seize from existence when the people's general is sworn in.
Sai Buhari!

the only true generals I know are the ones that attained such positions under GEJ! not the ones that got there through aboki connection even when they were very very very unqualified and incompetent as revealed by the exposure of bubari

onatisi:
ChinemeOkpan and tomakint you are invited to join this wonderful discussion. Thanks

Morning

Congrats on winning Nassarawa. The results are coming in steady, have you seen the results from Abia?

ChinemeOkpan:


Morning

Congrats on winning Nassarawa. The results are coming in steady, have you seen the results from Abia?

no I haven't . Can u share it with us pls?

onatisi:
no I haven't . Can u share it with us pls?

As expected APC is not doing well BUT Apga is eating PDP numbers.

Ikwuano Umuahia federal constituency results

PDP 29,052
APGA 27,681
APC 4,267
PPA 1,316
LP 104

I bet there might be crisis in Nasarawa if PDP is officially declared winner by INEC!
I am currently indoor and will be extra vigilant if I go out.

sinkhole:
I bet there might be crisis in Nasarawa if PDP is officially declared winner by INEC!
I am currently indoor and will be extra vigilant if I go out.

They just did

APC: 236,838, PDP: 273,460

ChinemeOkpan:


As expected APC is not doing well BUT Apga is eating PDP numbers.

Ikwuano Umuahia federal constituency results

PDP 29,052
APGA 27,681
APC 4,267
PPA 1,316
LP 104

does apga have a presidential candidate ?

ChinemeOkpan:



They just did

APC: 236,838, PDP: 273,460

Are u INEC or a personal assistant to Jega?

sinkhole:
I bet there might be crisis in Nasarawa if PDP is officially declared winner by INEC!
I am currently indoor and will be extra vigilant if I go out.

u get heart ooo, wettin u dey do for dat side at this period?

onatisi:
does apga have a presidential candidate ?

Apologies just figured, regardless, 100% for PDP in SS and se cannot close the gap. Am sure u have seen Jigawa results. Sokoto been released now and it is really heart breaking stuff for PDP.

sinkhole:
Are u INEC or a personal assistant to Jega?

Learn to be civil.

INEC returning officer just announced it.

SenseiX:



http://leadership.ng/news/politics/421671/pdp-unsettles-apc-in-nasarawa-jonathan-in-the-lead

biggest lies ever. Am presently at the Abacha youth center lafia and we ar now moving to college of Agric for the collation.

ChinemeOkpan:


Apologies just figured, regardless, 100% for PDP in SS and se cannot close the gap. Am sure u have seen Jigawa results. Sokoto been released now and it is really heart breaking stuff for PDP.

bros ,you still don't get the game . This discussion seemed matured and informative that was why I invited you here to view ppl analysis about both parties chances .

PDP are consoling themselves...Lol

kay1one:


Delusional dummy!

You better go and read. Your WAEC exams have commenced o. This is the fourth time you're resitting. I won't forgive you if you have to resit for it again o.

ogazi007:
PDP are consoling themselves...Lol

contribute sensibly and intelligently. Read through this thread,every contributor here is contributing intelligently please do so likewise.

I have always argued that the SW has never been a deciding region as erroneously depicted in the media. After 2011 election results from the SW, it was obvious to many analyst that the SW votes did not give the kind of margins the could decide victory for any candidate. The only advantage here is the constitutional 25% requirement.

I find it funny when ignorant analysts make comments like "the battleground is going to be the SW", it has never been and even the recent elections have shown that the marginal difference coming from the region can in no way decide votes for either Buhari or Jonathan as they can easily be cancelled out by marginal differences in other regions.

The difference between Jonathan and Buhari is their ability to command bloc votes from an entire region. Jonathan will always Eclipse Buhari in his ability to score over 90% votes from his own stronghold, a feat Buhari can not command in his own stronghold.

The NC and marginal differences actually is going to determine the winner of this election not southwest that has always been balkanized and neutralized. Anyway, INEC has the final say.

onatisi:
ChinemeOkpan and tomakint you are invited to join this wonderful discussion. Thanks

Thanks for the invitation, I will squeeze time out of my tight schedules to contribute.......believe me, I am missing out lately.

What makes you feel the one that becomes General under Jonathan are more qualified? Just like the northerners GEJ promote his kinsman Minima to the rank of General even when ihejirika was doing a good job.

cut007:
the only true generals I know are the ones that attained such positions under GEJ! not the ones that got there through aboki connection even when they were very very very unqualified and incompetent as revealed by the exposure of bubari

ChinemeOkpan:


Learn to be civil.

INEC returning officer just announced it.

OK, I just saw it on PM news too, but the difference is 36,622, Jigawa can take care of that difference comfortably! Its probably due to some christian "boko harams" who beleive GMB will islamize them, coupled with the Fulani problems (same thing for Plateau).
Sai Baba all the way!

Apc has won jigawa with a margin of 600,000 votes . Let the figures keep coming .

onatisi:
bros ,you still don't get the game . This discussion seemed matured and informative that was why I invited you here to view ppl analysis about both parties chances .

I have had a quick read and I still disagree with you. I think you underestimate Buhari's victory in the NE and NW. Jigawa is out and PDP has a deficit of almost 700,000 votes from just 1 state. I am currently monitoring results from Akwa Ibom and Abia, things would become clearer in the next hour.

P.S. Lagos PDP has demanded the cancellation of elections in the state. Results were suddenly suspended last night. Onatisi u suppose know Jagaban by now

ChinemeOkpan:


I have had a quick read and I still disagree with you. I think you underestimate Buhari's victory in the NE and NW. Jigawa is out and PDP has a deficit of almost 700,000 votes from just 1 state. I am currently monitoring results from Akwa Ibom and Abia, things would become clearer in the next hour.

P.S. Lagos PDP has demanded the cancellation of elections in the state. Results were suddenly suspended last night. Onatisi u suppose know Jagaban by now

bros ,this is politics,some places u will win with a landslide and in some places marginally while u will lose in some places ,at the end of the day it is the total number of votes that will determine. What reasons did lagos pdp give for the polls cancellation call?

ChinemeOkpan:


Onatisi u suppose know Jagaban by now

don't mind that yeye man

All this reminds me back den in FUTO were I graduated, there was this my friend I normally beat hands down in every course we wrote, I normally dont have F in my results but he does, I normally have B or at worse D but dis dude always have F and always re-wrote and made it up with an A in some results of which I dont even know where he got it from, do u know at the end his cgpa was higher than mine?so pls what determines the outcome of result is the winning margin.

That Jigawa win is a massive one for Buhari. Things are getting more interesting.