| Re: Buhari Social Program PART II: Feasible or Laughable? by Aegon(m): 4:40pm On Apr 20, 2015 |
faithfuldon7:
some people get time walahi. They just dey go do research to claim they are right. How else do you know you are right if not for research? Any claims made without research is purely conjecture and cannot stand any academic scrutiny and/or analysis. 2 Likes 1 Share |
| Re: Buhari Social Program PART II: Feasible or Laughable? by Nobody: 4:42pm On Apr 20, 2015 |
ApexTitan:
Surely you must be aware that many projects are cancelled or restructured during the design stage. There is nothing wrong with discussing the viability of the proposals Buhari has made, even before he assumes office. Thank you! 1 Like 1 Share |
| Re: Buhari Social Program PART II: Feasible or Laughable? by Nobody: 4:43pm On Apr 20, 2015 |
torkaka:
. . . . . . . .well it may interest you to know that on the back of these findings (by the house of representatives), FRC went ahead and recovered N120bn FROM MDAs, and is presently ironing out issues with the MDAs
[b] . . . . . . . . . .I told you not to dabble into fields you know nothing about . . . . . . . .firstly the waiver amount was released by no other agency but customs itself, secondly if cost and freight for fish is N500, then at 10% duty (not tax) you will pay import duty of N50.60, surcharge of N3.54, 5% VAT which is N28.33, CISS of N4.00 and ETLS of N2.53 totalling N89.01 . . . . . . . thirdly, waivers are given on figures, for example the FG can give a waiver of 200 naira to a company for all items under HS code 0301. . . . .if the company imports lets say fish and it falls under HS code 0301 the total payable duty will be N89.01 (as per your/our illustration), N50.60 will be deducted from the waiver amount of N200 leaving a balance of N149.40 . . . . . . . .this will continue until the company exhaust its N200 waiver . . . . . . . .waivers given to companies have to be forwarded to the various custom commands before final documents are sent to the banks/or before PAARs are presented to customs for assessment generation, so therefore customs is in a prime position to tell you the actual waiver amounts. Ideally, waivers should be given to start up fields that have little or no existence like starting up an LNG plant and not to companies like coscharis, dangote and co!! . . . . . . . . .again, stop dabbling into fields you know nothing about[/b] The FINANCE MINISTER that grants the Waiver said the Minister granted N171 billion as waiver for the period of 3 years. The report (which you base your argument) quoted otherwise. Who are we to believe? The Finance Minister Gave a break down of the figure According to the minister, a total of N55.97billion, made up of N23.422billion (import duty exemptions) and N33.543billion (waivers), was lost in 2011, while about N55.345billion, consisting N46.789billion (exemptions) and N8.556billion (waivers) was lost in 2012.
A total of N59.417billion, composed of N33.319billion (exemptions) and N26.097billion (waivers), was lost in 2013. http://www.premiumtimesng.com/business/153493-nigeria-lost-n797-8bilion-waivers-tax-exemptions-3-years-says-okonjo-iweala.html Iwaela said this UNDER oath before House of Representative. Can we see the breakdown of your alleged custom report Sir? It is people like you that believe that Jonathan spent N2tr for campaign 4 Likes 1 Share |
| Re: Buhari Social Program PART II: Feasible or Laughable? by Nobody: 4:43pm On Apr 20, 2015 |
Aegon:
How else do you know you are right if not for research? Any claims made without research is purely conjecture and cannot stand any academic scrutiny and/or analysis. Thank you. The only way some people encourage research and hard work is to denigrate it. It's in them! 2 Likes |
| Re: Buhari Social Program PART II: Feasible or Laughable? by simeonval: 4:43pm On Apr 20, 2015 |
What kind of meal is he planning to provide? Tea and bread, rice with chicken or beef, solid meal or fura di nunu? am sure he can only provide tea and bread 1 Like |
| Re: Buhari Social Program PART II: Feasible or Laughable? by bogzyboy(m): 4:44pm On Apr 20, 2015 |
|
| Re: Buhari Social Program PART II: Feasible or Laughable? by Nobody: 4:45pm On Apr 20, 2015 |
HzRF:
Really
Wen they promise to render country ungovernable for gej ND dey did dey didn't knw NIGERIA is our country
Just DAT vegance is of d Lord they can also try to test buahri resolve by giving him crisis to quench
Don't preach 1 Nigeria cuz it only exisit in our illusion Oh! We are back to that ridiculous falsehood often peddled when backed to a corner! Show me proof Buhari made that statement. Politicians come and go but Nigeria is the constant that will remain. Buhari is not my first choice but heck he's been elected now, all I can do now is pray for him to succeed. |
| Re: Buhari Social Program PART II: Feasible or Laughable? by wadetaw202: 4:46pm On Apr 20, 2015 |
faithfuldon7:
some people get time walahi. They just dey go do research to claim they are right. Only the sensible do things like that; they don't take things at face value until it promises to be provable. Do not forget that these policies and programs will affect you directly or indirectly. It is therefore reasonable to question their reliability and feasibility. 1 Like |
| Re: Buhari Social Program PART II: Feasible or Laughable? by wholexy009(m): 4:47pm On Apr 20, 2015 |
barcanista:
Oga this is Obiagelli's economics. It doesn't work that way Sir. I understand perfectly that only 60% of this is for the nation, and probably only 52% of whatever is left is for the Federal Govt, However sometimes u av some kind of intervention funds directly from the federation account hence once the oil companies have taken their own share. whatever is left can be channeled to fund such prog |
| Re: Buhari Social Program PART II: Feasible or Laughable? by FemiFaniKayode: 4:47pm On Apr 20, 2015 |
bogzyboy:
Yeah. same guy  na wa oooooooooo. |
| Re: Buhari Social Program PART II: Feasible or Laughable? by JustCalMeDBoss(m): 4:47pm On Apr 20, 2015 |
We all know the only way for the APC FG to even kEep up with is financial obligation is through agressive tax policy. Don't expect anything to improve. I see buhari cutting down on things like ASUU spending. Education would definitely take a back seat. And I xpect the revenue to drastically fall when they disagree on the revenue sharing formula. And cut out the funds meant for the NDDC. This would eventually force those militants to go back to the creek. Further hostile programs like removing the fuel subsidy would further aggravate the populace. This would directly bring fuel subsidy to the laws of demand and supply. Meaning fuel would be cheaper in the west than any oda part of the country. The worst hit would be the SE and SS this would make them clamour for a breakaway,fueling more oil facilities destruction. Now if they even dear to repair kaduna refinery first we are into more chaos. Anybody xpecting nigeria to be paradise under the APC govt is worse than a day dreamer. I have said it bfor its buhari destiny to take nigeria to war.
This is my experience, my opinion. Expect your mileage to vary. 1 Like |
| Re: Buhari Social Program PART II: Feasible or Laughable? by Eruditor: 4:50pm On Apr 20, 2015 |
barcanista:
PLEASE TAKE TIME TO READ
This thread is in response to the Thread by Obiagelli's https://www.nairaland.com/2265908/buharis-social-program-very-possible. In her bid to defend the Social policy of Mr Buhari, Obiagelli insulted the intelligence of Nigerians with respect to what is accrued to the Federal Government in revenue per fiscal year. Let us start by putting things in order...
Nigeria's Revenue:
Nigeria's revenue is accrued through oil export, non oil export, oil tax and non oil tax. The Federal Inland Revenue Service is statutory responsible for the collection of both oil profit tax and non oil tax. The money for oil export goes directly to the Federation Account via the NNPC. The money generated via non oil export goes directly to the federation account through relevant Agencies.
Oil Revenue:
The total sum realised through Oil export(after operational cost) and oil profit tax is known as "Oil Revenue"
Non Oil Revenue
While the sum realised through export of other commodities(after operational cost) and the money realised from non oil profit tax is called "Non Oil Revenue".
What Did Nigeria Earn Between January 2014 and January 2015?
Nigeria Total Earning:
Jan 2014 - June 2014 = N5.109trn
June 2014 - Jan 2015= N3.676trn
Total: N8.785trn
Total Oil Revenue (Oil Export Earning + Oil taxes)
= 70% of Total Revenue ie N6.15trn
*Total Non Oil Revenue (Non Oil Export + Non oil taxes)
= 30% of N8.785trn ie N2.635 trn
Jan 2014- June 2014 = N1.08trn*
July 2014 - Jan 2015= N1.556trn [N2.635trn]
Understanding FIRS 2014 Report:
FIRS announced that the sum of N4.69trn was generated in 2014. The report indicated that N2.45 trillion, representing 52.96 per cent, was collected from petroleum profit tax while N2.24 trillion, representing 47.04 per cent, was collected from non-oil taxes during the period.
Analysis
This sum(N4.69trn) is not independent of the published N8.785trn that Nigeria was said to earn between Jan 2014 and January 2014. It is a part and parcel of the total revenue.
How Much Did FG Get In 2014?
There is a consolidated Sharing formula between FG, States, LGs and Oil Producin States(13%) after operational and other associated cost has been deducted.
FG Earnings In 2014
1st Qtr: N912 billion
2nd Qtr: N864.2 billion
3rd Qtr: N924.68 billon
4th Qtr: N617.186 billion
Total 2014= N3.318trn
2014 Budget: N4.6trn
FG Projected Earning for 2014= N3.73tr
Real Earning = N3.318trn
Deficit in 2014 Fiscal Year: N1.282trn
What this means is that the money accrued to the FG was not even enough to fund 2014 budget. We had a deficit of N1.282trn.
Also note that the fall in oil price affected our earning.
Looking At 2015 Budget:
The 2015 budget(as adjusted) stand at N4.3trn.
Projected Revenue For 2015= N3.603trn
Deficit: N1.297trn (N4.3trn - N3.603trn)
This means the 2015 budget will be run on deficit of N1.297trn (as confirmed by the Senate).
Looking At Buhari's Proposal
With Buhari's proposed N1.89tr Social program, it invariably means an additional N1.89trn will be added to the projected deficit of N1.29 trn ie N3.187trn if he is to go ahead with paying of N5000 to 25 million unemployed annually, from where will he be able to make up the HUGE deficit?.
Analysing The Argument of The Pro-Buharis
Some Pro-Buharis claim that the project will be done in phase of 5m people per year. However, the problem of "How to identify these 5m beneficiaries" and what will be the for selection?
Anyway, that is for another day. Let's go by their argument...
Unemployment benefit: 5m * N5000 = N300 billion.
*The N300b is for the payment benefit alone*. Add that to logistics, overhead and operational cost that the program will incur (approx 50% ie N150billion) annually.
Total: N300b + N150b = N450b
Feeding for 40m Public School Children = N373 billion.
Subtotal: N823 billion.
Where Will Buhari Source For the estimated N823 billion?
- Remove Subsidy? Total package for petrol and kerosene subsidies plus SURE-P fund = N166.5b. That is clearly not up to 30%.
- Invest All Capital Expenditure + Subsidy? This will be a very silly move though. But adding Capital Expenditure and Subsidy will total N866.9 billion. Just a little above the projected N823billion.
Going this route means there will be no project for road, no infrastructure and other capital projects. In fact, it is synonymous to eating the present away.
- Will He Borrow? Borrowing to fund Social Welfare program is synonymous to eating away the future. That means indebting our future and a panacea to economic collapse likened to what happened to Greece if not worse. It also means increasing our already projected deficit of N1.29 trillion
What is the fate of this Social program? Feasible, Laudable or Laughable? The greatest travesty metted out to a people is for quacks to walk around as the real deal. 1. There are 40M Public school children? 2. FG never recovered more than 4.7 trillion in 2014 even after DPR remitted 1.3 trillion into the federal coffers? 3. NNPC pays money directly to FG account before or after removing their own running cost? 4. NLNG paid taxes of close to $1B to the FG last year. Does that also factor into what FIRS collected? Maybe DPR should explain to you the issues they have been experiencing with FIRS. 5. The 400k barrels of crude lost per day factors into what JV agreements? Do you think the IOCs believe they lose anything to illegal oil bunkering? Does the oil belong to the IOCs? 6. Where are ghost workers in your analysis? Monies cannot be retrieved from thence? 7. What about the $ 300M Tompolo got? Asari's $11M per month nko? Ateke's 9M per month as well? 8. Rebates from Subsidy removal is put at 165B naira? Did David Copperfield come with that number? The same subsidy that gulped 2.7 trillion in 2011? The same one that gulped 1.7 trillion in 2012? The same one that cost FG 320B just in December of 2014? 9. 250M USD largess to Nollywood? 500M USD gun contract to Arthur Eze? AMCON's father Christmas bailouts? Unnecessary splurge on Jets, 7B to Pastors and priests? Missing 10B USD NNPC money? You want to act like you do not know what goes on in your country? You want people to take you seriously? 5 Likes 1 Share |
| Re: Buhari Social Program PART II: Feasible or Laughable? by demandtruth: 4:50pm On Apr 20, 2015 |
chuna1985:
U still does not get the point. this argument has nothing to do with wen buhari will assume leadership, it has everything to do with the promises. Must all of you pretend to be an economist? Even, economist believe that crushing figures is not centrally a factual determinant of economics indices. The op bagga do not understand anything at all about economy model or projection analysis as he's only looking at income and expenses. There are undermining policies and discipline that a government could adhere to in making a projection on economics issue work There are lots of wastage inherent in the out going administration that would be used to lessen the costs of these expense. Futhermore, costs-fund-policy- finance are not exclusive of one another. Programmes are design for a purpose and to effectively impact on the people, models are put in place to test the workabilty |
| Re: Buhari Social Program PART II: Feasible or Laughable? by obailala(m): 4:52pm On Apr 20, 2015 |
jadakiss213:
I suggest you leave GEJ out of this for now..this bogus social welfare' package was promised by Buhari and his APC..Don't see anything wrong in doing an analysis of this..To me,those were just bogus promise made just to win an election,if u think otherwise,make use of ur brain and tell us how it can work. Of course it was a bogus promise, just like all the other utopian promises by politicians. But then, there are some promises I would take seriously and there are others I would simply dismiss as politicking. I wouldn't spend my time and energy grading a politician's performance on his ability to fulfil promises I know are bogus; I don't expect you to either. However if he miraculously delivers (even partially) on the promises, then he becomes a hero. Remember, Prof Osinbajo in his clarifications well before the election explained that the social welfare programme would be implemented in phases. So do not expect this to take effect from May 29th; it may even not be implemented by the end of the first 4 years. 1 Like |
| Re: Buhari Social Program PART II: Feasible or Laughable? by money121(m): 5:00pm On Apr 20, 2015 |
Eruditor:
The greatest travesty metted out to a people is for quacks to walk around as the real deal.
1. There are 40M Public school children?
2. FG never recovered more than 4.7 trillion in 2014 even after DPR remitted 1.3 trillion into the federal coffers?
3. NNPC pays money directly to FG account before or after removing their own running cost?
4. NLNG paid taxes of close to $1B to the FG last year. Does that also factor into what FIRS collected? Maybe DPR should explain to you the issues they have been experiencing with FIRS.
5. The 400k barrels of crude lost per day factors into what JV agreements? Do you think the IOCs believe they lose anything to illegal oil bunkering? Does the oil belong to the IOCs?
6. Where are ghost workers in your analysis? Monies cannot be retrieved from thence?
7. What about the $ 300M Tompolo got? Asari's $11M per month nko? Ateke's 9M per month as well?
8. Rebates from Subsidy removal is put at 165B naira? Did David Copperfield come with that number? The same subsidy that gulped 2.7 trillion in 2011? The same one that gulped 1.7 trillion in 2012? The same one that cost FG 320B just in December of 2014?
9. 250M USD largess to Nollywood? 500M USD gun contract to Arthur Eze? AMCON's father Christmas bailouts? Unnecessary splurge on Jets, 7B to Pastors and priests? Missing 10B USD NNPC money?
You want to act like you do not know what goes on in your country? You want people to take you seriously? weldon my guy... is only loser that will take barcanista and firefire thread serious becos does guys are loser since days of Adam 1 Like |
| Re: Buhari Social Program PART II: Feasible or Laughable? by Nobody: 5:00pm On Apr 20, 2015 |
Op! Whatever is your plan to play this your dirty and irritating mind game all in the name of undermining GMB's road map will fail.
So pathetic. |
| Re: Buhari Social Program PART II: Feasible or Laughable? by HzRF(m): 5:01pm On Apr 20, 2015 |
naijababe:
Oh! We are back to that ridiculous falsehood often peddled when backed to a corner! Show me proof Buhari made that statement. Politicians come and go but Nigeria is the constant that will remain. Buhari is not my first choice but heck he's been elected now, all I can do now is pray for him to succeed.
I never said buahri said that Itz 1 elder from North that openly said this and dey follow it up 1 Like |
| Re: Buhari Social Program PART II: Feasible or Laughable? by Nobody: 5:01pm On Apr 20, 2015 |
PassingShot:
You're the ignorant one here for the following reasons:
1. You assume you know but you know not
2. You assume that the FG cannot in actual sense increase its earnings whereas it is highly possible
3. You believe all the figures given by the outgoing regime which has lost all credibility to the extent that very few people now believe those figures given in the past.
4. You failed to factor in what can be saved by blocking leakages and limiting corruption/looting.
5. Finally, you are unnecessarily proud, arrogant and an unrepentant sore loser! can you please give us a counter analysis and stop this your beer parlour tantrums @ barcanista. Give us the figures and the figures behind the figure why the social programme is feasible. 1 Like |
| Re: Buhari Social Program PART II: Feasible or Laughable? by Nobody: 5:03pm On Apr 20, 2015 |
barcanista:
The FINANCE MINISTER that grants the Waiver said the Minister granted N171 billion as waiver for the period of 3 years. The report (which you base your argument) quoted otherwise. Who are we to believe? The Finance Minister Gave a break down of the figure
Iwaela said this UNDER oath before House of Representative. Can we see the breakdown of your alleged custom report Sir?
It is people like you that believe that Jonathan spent N2tr for campaign . . . . . . . . .in 2013 alone the customs boss said we lost N603bn (http://www.pmnewsnigeria.com/2013/11/04/waivers-duty-exemptions-dent-nigeria-customs-revenue-by-n603b/) . . . . . . . .that is 2013 alone!!!
. . . . . . . .if you have a single idea how waiver works and the role of customs in it, you wouldn't be displaying your ignorance here!! . . . . . . . . . . . .another report has it that it is N751bn IN 3 years(http://thecityreporters.com/fg-loses-n751-5bn-to-duty-waivers-under-jonathan/)
. . . . . . .so Iweala spoke under oath . . . . . .you are joking right? 2 Likes |
| Re: Buhari Social Program PART II: Feasible or Laughable? by deletrue: 5:04pm On Apr 20, 2015 |
san316:
The truth is that I did not read anything you wrote up there because I know it is just a vein attempt to prove that Nigeria is doomed.
The only question I would ask you is,
If you were wrong about GEJ winning the March 28 presidential election, what makes you think you will be right about this one (the assumption that GMB's policy wont pull through)?
The fact is that you have never been in the corridor of power and have no idea how things work except from the things you're fed with by the media. Same with all of us.
Way forward: Wait for the regime to commence work and if you like, keep praying things don't work out.
Reality: GMB will be president for the next four years and whatever you do or say cant UN-VOTE him. Nonsense. Has any individual unvoted any elected president before? Our senile vegetable president elect has told us his social welfare programme, people are therefore, expected to analyse this proposal, you are there talking rubbish. You tell me if Buhari is not already confused when he told the world about equalizing the Naira and Dollar, and that he will be able control the oil price and this is another blunder that has come from the same president elect and you are there talking from your back head. |
| Re: Buhari Social Program PART II: Feasible or Laughable? by jt2010: 5:07pm On Apr 20, 2015 |
barcanista:
PLEASE TAKE TIME TO READ
This thread is in response to the Thread by Obiagelli's https://www.nairaland.com/2265908/buharis-social-program-very-possible. In her bid to defend the Social policy of Mr Buhari, Obiagelli insulted the intelligence of Nigerians with respect to what is accrued to the Federal Government in revenue per fiscal year. Let us start by putting things in order...
Nigeria's Revenue:
Nigeria's revenue is accrued through oil export, non oil export, oil tax and non oil tax. The Federal Inland Revenue Service is statutory responsible for the collection of both oil profit tax and non oil tax. The money for oil export goes directly to the Federation Account via the NNPC. The money generated via non oil export goes directly to the federation account through relevant Agencies.
Oil Revenue:
The total sum realised through Oil export(after operational cost) and oil profit tax is known as "Oil Revenue"
Non Oil Revenue
While the sum realised through export of other commodities(after operational cost) and the money realised from non oil profit tax is called "Non Oil Revenue".
What Did Nigeria Earn Between January 2014 and January 2015?
Nigeria Total Earning:
Jan 2014 - June 2014 = N5.109trn
June 2014 - Jan 2015= N3.676trn
Total: N8.785trn
Total Oil Revenue (Oil Export Earning + Oil taxes)
= 70% of Total Revenue ie N6.15trn
*Total Non Oil Revenue (Non Oil Export + Non oil taxes)
= 30% of N8.785trn ie N2.635 trn
Jan 2014- June 2014 = N1.08trn*
July 2014 - Jan 2015= N1.556trn [N2.635trn]
Understanding FIRS 2014 Report:
FIRS announced that the sum of N4.69trn was generated in 2014. The report indicated that N2.45 trillion, representing 52.96 per cent, was collected from petroleum profit tax while N2.24 trillion, representing 47.04 per cent, was collected from non-oil taxes during the period.
Analysis
This sum(N4.69trn) is not independent of the published N8.785trn that Nigeria was said to earn between Jan 2014 and January 2014. It is a part and parcel of the total revenue.
How Much Did FG Get In 2014?
There is a consolidated Sharing formula between FG, States, LGs and Oil Producin States(13%) after operational and other associated cost has been deducted.
FG Earnings In 2014
1st Qtr: N912 billion
2nd Qtr: N864.2 billion
3rd Qtr: N924.68 billon
4th Qtr: N617.186 billion
Total 2014= N3.318trn
2014 Budget: N4.6trn
FG Projected Earning for 2014= N3.73tr
Real Earning = N3.318trn
Deficit in 2014 Fiscal Year: N1.282trn
What this means is that the money accrued to the FG was not even enough to fund 2014 budget. We had a deficit of N1.282trn.
Also note that the fall in oil price affected our earning.
Looking At 2015 Budget:
The 2015 budget(as adjusted) stand at N4.3trn.
Projected Revenue For 2015= N3.603trn
Deficit: N1.297trn (N4.3trn - N3.603trn)
This means the 2015 budget will be run on deficit of N1.297trn (as confirmed by the Senate).
Looking At Buhari's Proposal
With Buhari's proposed N1.89tr Social program, it invariably means an additional N1.89trn will be added to the projected deficit of N1.29 trn ie N3.187trn if he is to go ahead with paying of N5000 to 25 million unemployed annually, from where will he be able to make up the HUGE deficit?.
Analysing The Argument of The Pro-Buharis
Some Pro-Buharis claim that the project will be done in phase of 5m people per year. However, the problem of "How to identify these 5m beneficiaries" and what will be the for selection?
Anyway, that is for another day. Let's go by their argument...
Unemployment benefit: 5m * N5000 = N300 billion.
*The N300b is for the payment benefit alone*. Add that to logistics, overhead and operational cost that the program will incur (approx 50% ie N150billion) annually.
Total: N300b + N150b = N450b
Feeding for 40m Public School Children = N373 billion.
Subtotal: N823 billion.
Where Will Buhari Source For the estimated N823 billion?
- Remove Subsidy? Total package for petrol and kerosene subsidies plus SURE-P fund = N166.5b. That is clearly not up to 30%.
- Invest All Capital Expenditure + Subsidy? This will be a very silly move though. But adding Capital Expenditure and Subsidy will total N866.9 billion. Just a little above the projected N823billion.
Going this route means there will be no project for road, no infrastructure and other capital projects. In fact, it is synonymous to eating the present away.
- Will He Borrow? Borrowing to fund Social Welfare program is synonymous to eating away the future. That means indebting our future and a panacea to economic collapse likened to what happened to Greece if not worse. It also means increasing our already projected deficit of N1.29 trillion
What is the fate of this Social program? Feasible, Laudable or Laughable? barcanista, why you are trying to justify why GMB social program will not work, did you bother to consider the strategic APC intend to use to execute this social program. First, why are you constantly referring to FG alone in this social program, APC pick up this Ideal from Osun State so why are you not looking at the program to execute through each states because APC will control more states now than PDP so if they are able to implement this social program in all APC control states. Second, the social program is part of APC as party manifesto why pinning it down only to FG. 1 Like |
| Re: Buhari Social Program PART II: Feasible or Laughable? by aresa: 5:07pm On Apr 20, 2015 |
[s] barcanista:
PLEASE TAKE TIME TO READ
This thread is in response to the Thread by Obiagelli's https://www.nairaland.com/2265908/buharis-social-program-very-possible. In her bid to defend the Social policy of Mr Buhari, Obiagelli insulted the intelligence of Nigerians with respect to what is accrued to the Federal Government in revenue per fiscal year. Let us start by putting things in order...
Nigeria's Revenue:
Nigeria's revenue is accrued through oil export, non oil export, oil tax and non oil tax. The Federal Inland Revenue Service is statutory responsible for the collection of both oil profit tax and non oil tax. The money for oil export goes directly to the Federation Account via the NNPC. The money generated via non oil export goes directly to the federation account through relevant Agencies.
Oil Revenue:
The total sum realised through Oil export(after operational cost) and oil profit tax is known as "Oil Revenue"
Non Oil Revenue
While the sum realised through export of other commodities(after operational cost) and the money realised from non oil profit tax is called "Non Oil Revenue".
What Did Nigeria Earn Between January 2014 and January 2015?
Nigeria Total Earning:
Jan 2014 - June 2014 = N5.109trn
June 2014 - Jan 2015= N3.676trn
Total: N8.785trn
Total Oil Revenue (Oil Export Earning + Oil taxes)
= 70% of Total Revenue ie N6.15trn
*Total Non Oil Revenue (Non Oil Export + Non oil taxes)
= 30% of N8.785trn ie N2.635 trn
Jan 2014- June 2014 = N1.08trn*
July 2014 - Jan 2015= N1.556trn [N2.635trn]
Understanding FIRS 2014 Report:
FIRS announced that the sum of N4.69trn was generated in 2014. The report indicated that N2.45 trillion, representing 52.96 per cent, was collected from petroleum profit tax while N2.24 trillion, representing 47.04 per cent, was collected from non-oil taxes during the period.
Analysis
This sum(N4.69trn) is not independent of the published N8.785trn that Nigeria was said to earn between Jan 2014 and January 2014. It is a part and parcel of the total revenue.
How Much Did FG Get In 2014?
There is a consolidated Sharing formula between FG, States, LGs and Oil Producin States(13%) after operational and other associated cost has been deducted.
FG Earnings In 2014
1st Qtr: N912 billion
2nd Qtr: N864.2 billion
3rd Qtr: N924.68 billon
4th Qtr: N617.186 billion
Total 2014= N3.318trn
2014 Budget: N4.6trn
FG Projected Earning for 2014= N3.73tr
Real Earning = N3.318trn
Deficit in 2014 Fiscal Year: N1.282trn
What this means is that the money accrued to the FG was not even enough to fund 2014 budget. We had a deficit of N1.282trn.
Also note that the fall in oil price affected our earning.
Looking At 2015 Budget:
The 2015 budget(as adjusted) stand at N4.3trn.
Projected Revenue For 2015= N3.603trn
Deficit: N1.297trn (N4.3trn - N3.603trn)
This means the 2015 budget will be run on deficit of N1.297trn (as confirmed by the Senate).
Looking At Buhari's Proposal
With Buhari's proposed N1.89tr Social program, it invariably means an additional N1.89trn will be added to the projected deficit of N1.29 trn ie N3.187trn if he is to go ahead with paying of N5000 to 25 million unemployed annually, from where will he be able to make up the HUGE deficit?.
Analysing The Argument of The Pro-Buharis
Some Pro-Buharis claim that the project will be done in phase of 5m people per year. However, the problem of "How to identify these 5m beneficiaries" and what will be the for selection?
Anyway, that is for another day. Let's go by their argument...
Unemployment benefit: 5m * N5000 = N300 billion.
*The N300b is for the payment benefit alone*. Add that to logistics, overhead and operational cost that the program will incur (approx 50% ie N150billion) annually.
Total: N300b + N150b = N450b
Feeding for 40m Public School Children = N373 billion.
Subtotal: N823 billion.
Where Will Buhari Source For the estimated N823 billion?
- Remove Subsidy? Total package for petrol and kerosene subsidies plus SURE-P fund = N166.5b. That is clearly not up to 30%.
- Invest All Capital Expenditure + Subsidy? This will be a very silly move though. But adding Capital Expenditure and Subsidy will total N866.9 billion. Just a little above the projected N823billion.
Going this route means there will be no project for road, no infrastructure and other capital projects. In fact, it is synonymous to eating the present away.
- Will He Borrow? Borrowing to fund Social Welfare program is synonymous to eating away the future. That means indebting our future and a panacea to economic collapse likened to what happened to Greece if not worse. It also means increasing our already projected deficit of N1.29 trillion
What is the fate of this Social program? Feasible, Laudable or Laughable? [/s] This is the sad truth about snake oil peddling jokers like you, you don't know when to quit, you just keep jumping from one failure and losing battle to the next with the same failed and discredited rants. You personally are a failed and discredited loser. You sat here on NL with your thoughtless, misguided and condescending pre election analysis stating dubious, ignorant and infantile rubbish per how the people of Nigeria shall vote, but the people of Nigeria not only proved you wrong, they discredited you and the crooked, corrupt and incompetent people you run errands for. It really doesn't matter how many failed rubbish you litter the internet with, you are a failed and discredited losers, your pre election nonsense just like this crap failed you so of what relevance and importance is another bogus and ignorant analysis by the same discredited loser? Thank God the people of Nigeria relegated you and your masters to failed and loser level. New and better Nigeria is here and it doesn't matter if you and your type are part of it or not. 4 Likes 2 Shares |
| Re: Buhari Social Program PART II: Feasible or Laughable? by steppin: 5:07pm On Apr 20, 2015 |
PassingShot:
You're the ignorant one here for the following reasons:
1. You assume you know but you know not
2. You assume that the FG cannot in actual sense increase its earnings whereas it is highly possible
3. You believe all the figures given by the outgoing regime which has lost all credibility to the extent that very few people now believe those figures given in the past.
4. You failed to factor in what can be saved by blocking leakages and limiting corruption/looting.
5. Finally, you are unnecessarily proud, arrogant and an unrepentant sore loser! You're yet to counter his argument with a meaningful comment. You keep insulting him, saying how proud he is but he called for debate, goddamit! But I'm not too surprised, you got nothing to offer. Try and make a meaningful argument without insults, it'll help. 2 Likes |
| Re: Buhari Social Program PART II: Feasible or Laughable? by leonn(m): 5:11pm On Apr 20, 2015 |
sarahatuba:
Why are we just going back nd forth on this issue......im sure putting this as one of their campaign strategies was a collective decision by people who know all these y'all are writing....nt just a one man decision.......they arent as stupid or dumb as we might think......lets give them time to prove they can do it...lets not be pessimistic  #my 2kobo on the matter I guess u were one of those shouting sai Baba....Apc is a party with old men politicians who are professionals in TONGUE TWISTING THE POPULACE and then going ahead to do the opposite....I wud give an example Odigie oyegun d current Apc chairman was once a governor of edo state, I remember vividly what he did during his campaign he cried n stated that civil servants were suffering in d state n that he was the messiah for them since he oyegun was a civil servant turned politician, Trust you me workers of the state then were jubilating that alas the messiah has come....they voted massively for him oyegun and He won the election little did they know they were doomed.......About 8 months later he said workers in d state were too much and he retrenched over 30% of d work force. as if that was not enough the once left he cud not pay their salaries and owned workers for months without pay....workers in the state could not train their kids in good schools not to talk of owning a property. it was really terrible then, even LUCKY IGBINEDION that is acclaimed the worst governor in history of the state did not treat workers the way ODIGIE OYEGUN did ....Alas he is the chairman of APC......lol WONDERS SHALL NEVER END.. 1 Like 1 Share |
| Re: Buhari Social Program PART II: Feasible or Laughable? by Nobody: 5:13pm On Apr 20, 2015 |
barcanista:
Nigerians too are watching... The mistake with many opposition (especially in Africa) is that they sit in the comfort of their bedroom to make projections and promises without proper research. Imagine Obiagelli creating a thread to "assume" how much goes into the FG accounts and was even joyous at such show of sheer ignorance. Obiagelli is free to open threads, we should welcome it, cos the more threads she opens, the more she exposes her innuendos and 'empty-head-ism'. That is the culture of Buharism. |
| Re: Buhari Social Program PART II: Feasible or Laughable? by adeA1(m): 5:14pm On Apr 20, 2015 |
Honstly! I've not in any time seen the possblty of fulfillin 'll this promises as I regard thm 'll to be a deliberatly exergerated Manifestoes to jst them ve their ways to montle.
But be as it may be Nigerians ve succeded in grabbin the change we ve once craved for - thank to God evnthou one wll assumbalydoubt the fufillin of d promises. But one thing for sure is that The Master of corruption is back to Otueke... |
| Re: Buhari Social Program PART II: Feasible or Laughable? by onatisi(m): 5:15pm On Apr 20, 2015 |
Everything that is been said on this thread will be meaningless by may29. |
| Re: Buhari Social Program PART II: Feasible or Laughable? by Nobody: 5:19pm On Apr 20, 2015 |
torkaka:
. . . . . . . . .in 2013 alone the customs boss said we lost N603bn (http://www.pmnewsnigeria.com/2013/11/04/waivers-duty-exemptions-dent-nigeria-customs-revenue-by-n603b/) . . . . . . . .that is 2013 alone!!!
. . . . . . . .if you have a single idea how waiver works and the role of customs in it, you wouldn't be displaying your ignorance here!! . . . . . . . . . . . .another report has it that it is N751bn IN 3 years(http://thecityreporters.com/fg-loses-n751-5bn-to-duty-waivers-under-jonathan/)
. . . . . . .so Iweala spoke under oath . . . . . .you are joking right? You only read what the Journalists write rather than details. Please read in details, this is one mistake we make in this country. From your second link Data from the Federal Ministry of Finance and the service revealed that the country lost N37.2 billion, N55.96 billion, N55.34 billion and N603 billion to import waivers to individuals and corporate organisations in 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 fiscal years respectively You said TRILLION before. Anyway, Do you think Companies will agree to do business with TIGHT Fiscal policy? bros, na wa o. According to the Federal Ministry of Finance data, some of the beneficiaries are Western Metal Products Company Limited (WEMPCO), Vaswani Brothers, Chevron Nigeria Limited, Dangote, Stallion Group, Olam, Indorama Eleme Fertiliser and Chemicals Limited. Others are International Hotels, Mandarin Hotels, Le Meridian, Grand Ikoyi Towers & Resort, Federal Palace Hotels, the United Cement Company of Nigeria and NIPCO Plc.
Others are the Borno State Government, Federal Capital Territory Administration/ Globe Motors, Médecins Sans Frontières (Doctors without borders). BMW, Ford, Land Rover and Jaguar franchise holder in the country, Coscharis Motors, was also alleged to have been granted waivers. Please read more on Fiscal Policy of Government and its usefulness in achieving balance of trade. |
| Re: Buhari Social Program PART II: Feasible or Laughable? by Nobody: 5:20pm On Apr 20, 2015 |
jt2010:
barcanista, why you are trying to justify why GMB social program will not work, did you bother to consider the strategic APC intend to use to execute this social program.
First, why are you constantly referring to FG alone in this social program, APC pick up this Ideal from Osun State so why are you not looking at the program to execute through each states because APC will control more states now than PDP so if they are able to implement this social program in all APC control states.
Second, the social program is part of APC as party manifesto why pinning it down only to FG.
1. Osun State is in HUGE debt that BANKS are refusing to give them more loan. 2. Osun is owing wokers EIGHT MONTHS Salaries. Is this what you want? 3 Likes |
| Re: Buhari Social Program PART II: Feasible or Laughable? by Nobody: 5:22pm On Apr 20, 2015 |
Billyonaire:
Obiagelli is free to open threads, we should welcome it, cos the more threads she opens, the more she exposes are innuendos and 'empty-head-ism'. That is the culture of Buharism.
Thank you. I was appalled when I saw her ridiculous claims. I started wondering that if FG can get up to N9trn as its own share, why then are we running our budget on deficit and taking loans...? 1 Like |
| Re: Buhari Social Program PART II: Feasible or Laughable? by fyneboi79(m): 5:22pm On Apr 20, 2015 |
barcanista:
PLEASE TAKE TIME TO READ
This thread is in response to the Thread by Obiagelli's https://www.nairaland.com/2265908/buharis-social-program-very-possible. In her bid to defend the Social policy of Mr Buhari, Obiagelli insulted the intelligence of Nigerians with respect to what is accrued to the Federal Government in revenue per fiscal year. Let us start by putting things in order...
Nigeria's Revenue:
Nigeria's revenue is accrued through oil export, non oil export, oil tax and non oil tax. The Federal Inland Revenue Service is statutory responsible for the collection of both oil profit tax and non oil tax. The money for oil export goes directly to the Federation Account via the NNPC. The money generated via non oil export goes directly to the federation account through relevant Agencies.
Oil Revenue:
The total sum realised through Oil export(after operational cost) and oil profit tax is known as "Oil Revenue"
Non Oil Revenue
While the sum realised through export of other commodities(after operational cost) and the money realised from non oil profit tax is called "Non Oil Revenue".
What Did Nigeria Earn Between January 2014 and January 2015?
Nigeria Total Earning:
Jan 2014 - June 2014 = N5.109trn
June 2014 - Jan 2015= N3.676trn
Total: N8.785trn
Total Oil Revenue (Oil Export Earning + Oil taxes)
= 70% of Total Revenue ie N6.15trn
*Total Non Oil Revenue (Non Oil Export + Non oil taxes)
= 30% of N8.785trn ie N2.635 trn
Jan 2014- June 2014 = N1.08trn*
July 2014 - Jan 2015= N1.556trn [N2.635trn]
Understanding FIRS 2014 Report:
FIRS announced that the sum of N4.69trn was generated in 2014. The report indicated that N2.45 trillion, representing 52.96 per cent, was collected from petroleum profit tax while N2.24 trillion, representing 47.04 per cent, was collected from non-oil taxes during the period.
Analysis
This sum(N4.69trn) is not independent of the published N8.785trn that Nigeria was said to earn between Jan 2014 and January 2014. It is a part and parcel of the total revenue.
How Much Did FG Get In 2014?
There is a consolidated Sharing formula between FG, States, LGs and Oil Producin States(13%) after operational and other associated cost has been deducted.
FG Earnings In 2014
1st Qtr: N912 billion
2nd Qtr: N864.2 billion
3rd Qtr: N924.68 billon
4th Qtr: N617.186 billion
Total 2014= N3.318trn
2014 Budget: N4.6trn
FG Projected Earning for 2014= N3.73tr
Real Earning = N3.318trn
Deficit in 2014 Fiscal Year: N1.282trn
What this means is that the money accrued to the FG was not even enough to fund 2014 budget. We had a deficit of N1.282trn.
Also note that the fall in oil price affected our earning.
Looking At 2015 Budget:
The 2015 budget(as adjusted) stand at N4.3trn.
Projected Revenue For 2015= N3.603trn
Deficit: N1.297trn (N4.3trn - N3.603trn)
This means the 2015 budget will be run on deficit of N1.297trn (as confirmed by the Senate).
Looking At Buhari's Proposal
With Buhari's proposed N1.89tr Social program, it invariably means an additional N1.89trn will be added to the projected deficit of N1.29 trn ie N3.187trn if he is to go ahead with paying of N5000 to 25 million unemployed annually, from where will he be able to make up the HUGE deficit?.
Analysing The Argument of The Pro-Buharis
Some Pro-Buharis claim that the project will be done in phase of 5m people per year. However, the problem of "How to identify these 5m beneficiaries" and what will be the for selection?
Anyway, that is for another day. Let's go by their argument...
Unemployment benefit: 5m * N5000 = N300 billion.
*The N300b is for the payment benefit alone*. Add that to logistics, overhead and operational cost that the program will incur (approx 50% ie N150billion) annually.
Total: N300b + N150b = N450b
Feeding for 40m Public School Children = N373 billion.
Subtotal: N823 billion.
Where Will Buhari Source For the estimated N823 billion?
- Remove Subsidy? Total package for petrol and kerosene subsidies plus SURE-P fund = N166.5b. That is clearly not up to 30%.
- Invest All Capital Expenditure + Subsidy? This will be a very silly move though. But adding Capital Expenditure and Subsidy will total N866.9 billion. Just a little above the projected N823billion.
Going this route means there will be no project for road, no infrastructure and other capital projects. In fact, it is synonymous to eating the present away.
- Will He Borrow? Borrowing to fund Social Welfare program is synonymous to eating away the future. That means indebting our future and a panacea to economic collapse likened to what happened to Greece if not worse. It also means increasing our already projected deficit of N1.29 trillion
What is the fate of this Social program? Feasible, Laudable or Laughable? You still haven't given up on this shameless quest  Just like yOu were defeated at the march 28 presidential election,you will be put to shame a second and final time. People like you who lack integrity will alwaYs amount to nothing while jumping up and down. Without looking. 1 Like |
| Re: Buhari Social Program PART II: Feasible or Laughable? by Nobody: 5:25pm On Apr 20, 2015 |
leonn:
I guess u were one of those shouting sai Baba....Apc is a party with old men politicians who are professionals in TONGUE TWISTING THE POPULACE and then going ahead to do the opposite....I wud give an example Odigie oyegun d current Apc chairman was once a governor of edo state, I remember vividly what he did during his campaign he cried n stated that civil servants were suffering in d state n that he was the messiah for them since he oyegun was a civil servant turned politician, Trust you me workers of the state then were jubilating that alas the messiah has come....they voted massively for him oyegun and He won the election little did they know they were doomed.......About 8 months later he said workers in d state were too much and he retrenched over 30% of d work force. as if that was not enough the once left he cud not pay their salaries and owned workers for months without pay....workers in the state could not train their kids in good schools not to talk of owning a property. it was really terrible then, even LUCKY IGBINEDION that is acclaimed the worst governor in history of the state did not treat workers the way ODIGIE OYEGUN did ....Alas he is the chairman of APC......lol
WONDERS SHALL NEVER END.. Hahahaha I think you should check when I joined nairaland So after saying all these what would you say abt PDP? |
