bigjay01:


what if na arrangy way to circcumvent the forensic audit?

what if FRCN raises no objection to the results?

#RandomMusings

Sure that's also a possibility Sir big Jay.
...u and I know that part of what defines the entity Nigeria is that of a place where there's always a possibility that 'everything non-coperate about the governance of a company can take place'. ...especially with a coy like OANDO.
This is why I always advice folks to learn how to always dance to the tunes of the many melody that Mr MARKET presents at any given time. ...and then add that to a clearly mapped out strategy that defines ur investment style.
...for as long as it gives u much more than it takes away from u, u are good to go !!

Kingchuks:
Nestle
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/21039_NESTLE_NIGERIA_PLC._FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_MARCH_2018.pdf
The best so far!

Great company with excellent performance, this company may continue selling at this super premium , but the dividend proposed look to me like a pressure on the management to justify the current price.

looking at the report, available cash without pressure on the company's book is around N17 per share, they know if they declear this or less, the yield is going to look ridiculous and the mkt may vex to punish the stock

they don't want this to happen by looking for cash to pay more still at 3% yield

How long are they going to continue this way, only time will tell

http://allafrica.com/stories/201803020055.html

Nigeria now world highest importer of petrol !!
...and even the NNPC GMD had to admit as much. ...apparently we are the ones importing for the whole of west Africa.
This country is such a useless entity. ...we are simply just not ready yet !!

onegentleguy:
http://allafrica.com/stories/201803020055.html

Nigeria now world highest importer of petrol !!
...and even the NNPC GMD had to admit as much. ...apparently we are the ones importing for the whole of west Africa.
This country is such a useless entity. ...we are simply just not ready yet !!

Are you calling Lord Lugard back?
I will help you search for his descendants....

IchimokuPilot:


Are you calling Lord Lugard back?
I will help you search for his descendants....

My dear this country still has a really very long way to go !!
...best is always to bet against the economy and concern urself about u, ur loved ones and as many that u can help carry along in life.
...then leave the rest to God 'cause these our leaders are just a bunch of no good !!

In other news, our current national debt burden is now standing at over $55 billion. ...yet someone, somewhere will probably tell u that everything is ok. ...just wish they understood a few things.

onegentleguy:



My dear this country still has a really very long way to go !!
...best is always to bet against the economy and concern urself about u, ur loved ones and as many u can help carry along in life.
...then leave the rest to God 'cause these our leaders are just a bunch of no good !!

In other news, our current national debt burden is now standing at over $55 billion. ...yet someone, somewhere will probably tell u that everything is ok. ...just wish they understood a few things.

Now lets try and breakdown this whole issue of our National debt burden a bit, shall we;

A recently released data shows that Nigeria's debt burden is now in excess of $55 billion !!
Now some might argue that the country has got enough buffer and cash flow to service that figure and more.
Some might also say that our net debt to GDP ratio is still very much low, and maybe other reasons but before u draw up any conclusions, let's put a few things in their right perspective;

According to the just released NBS report, the Nigerian economy grew by 0.83% in 2017 following from a 1.58% contraction in 2016.
Before this time, actual GDP came down from a previous figure of $481.10 billion the preceeding year to close at $405.1billion in 2016.
Now as a general rule, the acceptable maximum debt to GDP ratio for developing countries (for which Nigeria is one) is 40%. ...and if we have to go with that figure, then 40% of $405.1 billion would compute as 40/100 x $405.1 = 0.4 x $405.1 = $162.04 billion.
...this is by far higher than the $55 billion which is presently our national debt burden. ...and so some might argue that we still have enough room to borrow in excess of over $115 billion and until then, there's no course for alarm.
Well am sorry to disappoint u. ...because there's actually a lot to worry about;
Using the figures above,
our debt to GDP ratio would be $55/405.1 x 100%, which is approx 13.6%.
But even with a tax revenue in excess of N4 Trillion in 2017, Nigeria's tax to GDP ratio currently stands at an average of 6% (according to data from pwc.) ...this is one of the lowest in the world even amongst countries with the same and even lower socioeconomic parameters. ...the likes of Ghana and Morocco have a tax to GDP ratio in excess of 21% while Zimbabwe, South Africa and Egypt to mention just a few have theirs at an above 30% average.
With a mega far less impressive 6% tax to GDP ratio, its clear that 2 things are playing out;
1) Most of the proceeds from the debt that Nigeria has so far raised have not been spent on Capital expenditure but on recurrent ones (what I call silly things that don't generate any revenue).
and
2) Nigeria has not been generating well enough tax to deleverage its debt. ...it's clear from figures that we need to generate more than twice as much cash to help strike a balance on our net debt to GDP ratio, and thrice as much to put us in a better footing.

Frankly, I doubt if this government can sustainably (note the use of the word sustainably) grow the economy without improving on this indices. ...especially given that we lack a diversified economic base.
We seriously need an aggressive but coherent model to expand on our income stream, a strong diversification in revenue drive and a higher spend on infrastructural development.

Part of the solution to tax return would probably depend on how effective the scheme VAIDS as lead by the ministry of finance thru FIRS and JTB would be, and if we can triple our cash receipts (...though I think this might be practically near impossible given the country's history of policy flip ups).
Now this issue calls for some serious action. ...otherwise we might keep borrowing to keep servicing our debt. ...and the whole circle will continue until we probably hit the 40% stipulated maximum. But the truth is that we don't even have to hit the 40% suggested limit. ...because even a 20% debt burden could have a lot of negative impact on the economy given that we are just pulling off from the chains of a recession 'whose shadow can still be felt around the economy'.
Unfortunately the many decision-making of this government particularly on the fiscal side is not helping the situation.

There are lots to say, but I can only pray and hope that things don't get worse from here.
May God help us !!

To those invested in MRS OIL PLC, this piece of news might be of some interest to u;

https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/260262-12-billion-recovery-suit-court-rules-chevron.html

onegentleguy:
http://allafrica.com/stories/201803020055.html

Nigeria now world highest importer of petrol !!
...and even the NNPC GMD had to admit as much. ...apparently we are the ones importing for the whole of west Africa.
This country is such a useless entity. ...we are simply just not ready yet !!

Really sorry to say but that's what you get when guys who failed WAEC and those who scored 20% in JAMB to gain admission to the university where they probably got a let-my-people-go are now Judges, government economists, managers, directors etc while those that scored 80% and made first class are either in private sectors or reduced to court clerks/redundant positions in government. You can never give what you don't have! Nigeria is a systemic basket case with a rotten foundation that needs to be torn down and rebuilt else every patch-patch will lead to the same BS! #which-way-nigeria

currentprice:


Great company with excellent performance, this company may continue selling at this super premium , but the dividend proposed look to me like a pressure on the management to justify the current price.

looking at the report, available cash without pressure on the company's book is around N17 per share, they know if they declear this or less, the yield is going to look ridiculous and the mkt may vex to punish the stock

they don't want this to happen by looking for cash to pay more still at 3% yield

How long are they going to continue this way, only time will tell

How did you arrive at N17 per share?

Is that meant to be the dividend?

onegentleguy:


Now lets try and breakdown this whole issue of our National debt burden a bit, shall we;

A recently released data shows that Nigeria's debt burden is now in excess of $55 billion !!
Now some might argue that the country has got enough buffer and cash flow to service that figure and more.
Some might also say that our net debt to GDP ratio is still very much low, and maybe other reasons but before u draw up any conclusions, let's put a few things in their right perspective;

According to the just released NBS report, the Nigerian economy grew by 0.83% in 2017 following from a 1.58% contraction in 2016.
Before this time, actual GDP came down from a previous figure of $481.10 billion the preceeding year to close at $405.1billion in 2016.
Now as a general rule, the acceptable maximum debt to GDP ratio for developing countries (for which Nigeria is one) is 40%. ...and if we have to go with that figure, then 40% of $405.1 billion would compute as 40/100 x $405.1 = 0.4 x $405.1 = $162.04 billion.
...this is by far higher than the $55 billion which is presently our national debt burden. ...and so some might argue that we still have enough room to borrow in excess of over $115 billion and until then, there's no course for alarm.
Well am sorry to disappoint u. ...because there's actually a lot to worry about;
Using the figures above,
our debt to GDP ratio would be $55/405.1 x 100%, which is approx 13.6%.
But even with a tax revenue in excess of N4 Trillion in 2017, Nigeria's tax to GDP ratio currently stands at an average of 6% (according to data from pwc.) ...this is one of the lowest in the world even amongst countries with the same and even lower socioeconomic parameters. ...the likes of Ghana and Morocco have a tax to GDP ratio in excess of 21% while Zimbabwe, South Africa and Egypt to mention just a few have theirs at an above 30% average.
With a mega far less impressive 6% tax to GDP ratio, its clear that 2 things are playing out;
1) Most of the proceeds from the debt that Nigeria has so far raised have not been spent on Capital expenditure but on recurrent ones (what I call silly things that don't generate any revenue).
and
2) Nigeria has not been generating well enough tax to deleverage its debt. ...it's clear from figures that we need to generate more than twice as much cash to help strike a balance on our net debt to GDP ratio, and thrice as much to put us in a better footing.

Frankly, I doubt if this government can sustainably (note the use of the word sustainably) grow the economy without improving on this indices. ...especially given that we lack a diversified economic base.
We seriously need an aggressive but coherent model to expand on our income stream, a strong diversification in revenue drive and a higher spend on infrastructural development.

Part of the solution to tax return would probably depend on how effective the scheme VAIDS as lead by the ministry of finance thru FIRS and JTB would be, and if we can triple our cash receipts (...though I think this might be practically near impossible given the country's history of policy flip ups).
Now this issue calls for some serious action. ...otherwise we might keep borrowing to keep servicing our debt. ...and the whole circle will continue until we probably hit the 40% stipulated maximum. ...truth is, we don't even have to hit the 40% suggested limit 'cause even a 20% debt burden could have a lot of negative impact on the economy given that we are just pulling off from the chains of a recession 'whose shadow can still be felt around the economy'.
Unfortunately the many decision-making of this government particularly on the fiscal side is not helping the situation.

There are lots to say, but I can only pray and hope that things don't get worse from here.
May God help us !!

Bros, you can write ooo... Too long

Sometimes people may jump and pass your post without reading them.

One needs to be patient to read full length.

RabbiDoracle:


Bros, you can write ooo... Too long

Sometimes people may jump and pass your post without reading them.

One needs to be patient to read full length.

May be that is the way he talks

RabbiDoracle:


How did you arrive at N17 per share?

Is that meant to be the dividend?

Boss, na free cash flow I calculate o and it doesn't mean they should pay all as dividend but they want to pay N43

Anyway companys with negative cash flow pay dividend

RabbiDoracle:


Bros, you can write ooo... Too long

Sometimes people may jump and pass your post without reading them.

One needs to be patient to read full length.

lol. I no fit read that thing oh. E too long. That type post dey week body.

currentprice:


Boss, na free cash flow I calculate o and it doesn't mean they should pay all as dividend but they want to pay N43

Anyway companys with negative cash flow pay dividend

I got N55 per unit as the FCFF.

So they can pay N42 without borrowing.

RabbiDoracle:


I got N55 per unit as the FCFF.

So they can pay N42 without borrowing.

that's good dividend decision. I will recheck my calculations after the 33 of last nite watch out of my eyes

RabbiDoracle:


Bros, you can write ooo... Too long

Sometimes people may jump and pass your post without reading them.

One needs to be patient to read full length.

Bros People still dey read am o, some won’t some will. Na so life be, different tales for different folks but we need all of them.

If I enter supermarket I no fit pick everything, na wetin I need I go buy .

Dwizeone:


Bros People still dey read am o, some won’t some will. Na so life be, different tales for different folks but we need all of them.

If I enter supermarket I no fit pick everything, na wetin I need I go buy .

me I dey read am o.

In Nigeria you get some free points amongst folks when they know you are not on this lane professionally but can speak on economic matters with confidence

some of my friends feel I know too much dem no know say n.a. free school like this dey make me appear sharp.

Dwizeone:


Bros People still dey read am o, some won’t some will. Na so life be, different tales for different folks but we need all of them.

If I enter supermarket I no fit pick everything, na wetin I need I go buy .

Me read everything sharp sharp as per say person no dey know the particular broom stick wey go kill fly.
After all most of us here do read and digest all the over 100 pages of some annual and quarterly reports that form our bases for analyses here.

In fact despite how endlessly long the Oando forensic audit report was, some people here read it from Genesis to Revelations and came back here to dissect the contents. Na that day I begin fear some NSEMPA members like winch!

Investors Expect Better Returns as Banks Release 2017 Earnings This Month
https://www.businesspost.ng/2018/03/03/investors-expect-better-returns-banks-release-2017-earnings-month/

Agbalowomeri:


May be that is the way he talks

It depends on the nature of his exposition. In a situation where he quotes authorities, references, highlight data before arriving at his own analytical conclusion, he might be left with no options.
I would be surprised if RabbiDoracle would complain about long exposition, when I've always known him as a custodian of long thesis!
And Master of Philosophy

DeRuggedProf:


I know of a few difficult tasks, one is the profitable allocation of a huge pile of cash ....

loll another one is moving swiftly back to cash to avoid gradual diminution of capital & sanity

Random

The dream of novice market speculators is that they will continually bask in the warmth of profitable times.

- PBrandt

Toluway:

It depends on the nature of his exposition. In a situation where he quotes authorities, references, highlight data before arriving at his own analytical conclusion, he might be left with no options.
I would be surprised if RabbiDoracle would complain about long exposition, when I've always known him as a custodian of long thesis!
And Master of Philosophy

Chai too much book

Dwizeone:


Bros People still dey read am o, some won’t some will. Na so life be, different tales for different folks but we need all of them.

If I enter supermarket I no fit pick everything, na wetin I need I go buy .

I read everything that everyone writes. But just pointing out that the length may put people off.

babytoun:


me I dey read am o.

In Nigeria you get some free points aanongst folks when they know you are not on this lane profeasionally but can speak on economic matters with confidence

some of my friends feel I know too much dem no know say n.a. free school like this dey make me appear sharp.

You go begin pay Onegentleguy you oo...he is educating you here oooo

Deadlytruth:



Me read everything sharp sharp as per say person no dey know the particular broom stick wey go kill fly.
After all most of us here do read and digest all the over 100 pages of some annual and quarterly reports that form our bases for analyses here.

In fact despite how endlessly long the Oando forensic audit report was, some people here read it from Genesis to Revelations and came back here to dissect the contents. Na that day I begin I fear some NSEMPA members like winch!

Where your treasure is, there lies your heart.

Toluway:

It depends on the nature of his exposition. In a situation where he quotes authorities, references, highlight data before arriving at his own analytical conclusion, he might be left with no options.
I would be surprised if RabbiDoracle would complain about long exposition, when I've always known him as a custodian of long thesis!
And Master of Philosophy

You know me?

You will represent us in the next stone throwing challenge in Gaza.

onegentleguy:


With a mega far less impressive 6% tax to GDP ratio, its clear that 2 things are playing out;

1) Most of the proceeds from the debt that Nigeria has so far raised have not been spent on Capital expenditure but on recurrent ones (what I call silly things that don't generate any revenue).
and

2) Nigeria has not been generating well enough tax to deleverage its debt. ...it's clear from figures that we need to generate more than twice as much cash to help strike a balance on our net debt to GDP ratio, and thrice as much to put us in a better footing.

Nothing new here ! the assumed political impact of re-structuring the balance sheet is quite high in d eyes of political leaders who benefit from the current status quo hence we remain in this eco-quagmire of avoiding surgical balance sheet treatment for short term gratification or relief of higher oil prices injections.

Our life support is still tied to d oil price for now and foreseeable future until we can separate politicians political capital from our economic resource capital. So let's say we even achieve higher taxes collections and good debt/gdp ratio ... do u think d current crop of political leaders wt d prevalent mind set will still achieve more success ?? umm

sigh ! make d oil sha remain above $60 ... till we get things together if ever we do .

Nice analysis @onegentleguy

#WetinManKnowSef

Access
- new weekly closing high

#breakout

Zenith

- needs to close above N33 on d weekly to go higher !

fxuser:
Access
- new weekly closing high

#breakout

still cautious about UBA , Access and Zenith esp for new entrants at this price level
all made lower weekly RSI highs after hitting new highs in Jan
hv learnt d hard way not to argue with charts esp divergences in d short term
but all long term bullish anyways