The Central Intelligence Agency- CIA, The much quoted American intelligence unit website has made a revision on their website's Nigerian section under People and Society, Ethnic groups as well as Religion.: Updated November 09 , 2018.

According to them, this is the reflection of Nigeria's ethnic statistics:
Hausa 27.4%
Igbo (Ibo) 14.1%
Yoruba 13.9%
Fulani 6.3%
Tiv 2.2%
Ibibio 2.2%
Ijaw/Izon 2%
Kanuri/Beriberi 1.7%
Igala 1%
Others 28.9%
Unspecified 0.2%

It then goes on to say Muslims are 51.6% of the country, Christians are 46.9 (of which Roman Catholics are 11.2%), Traditionalists are 0.9%, while unspecified are 0.5%
https://www.cia.gov/llibrary/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ni.html

But knowing that this same CIA is the same agency responsible for the much peddled Hausa-Fulani 29%, Yoruba 21%, Igbo 18% Ijaw 10%, Kanuri 4%, Ibibio-Efik 3.5% Figure that was brandished around for a very long time, is it safe to say these new figures are also unrealistic and suspect?
Also the way they seem to be able to arrive at such precise percentages, plus their inclusion of an "unspecified" category seem to suggest that they did some sort of survey? (If they did, then when, where and how did it happen)

Take for example, How Igalas be 1% but Urhobos don't rank?
Hausas and Fulanis together are now 33.7% from 29%
Igbos are now 14.1% from 18%
Yorubas came as the biggest shock crashing down to 13.9% from a previous 21% More than 7% decrease.
Ijaws also went frm 10% to 2% (This one i am not surprised, because trust me, everyone knew Ijaws were not 10% of Nigeria)

The consequence of this is that Hausas alone are now the same population as Igbos and Yorubas combined, without even factoring in the fulanis YET.

What actually happened? Are the new stats more believable than the old one from the same Agency, or are both figures old and new total crap, which would only suggest that this so called agency are just amateurs sitting in some armchair in faraway Washington D.C making wild unresearched guesses? Hmmn.

Without a properly conducted and credible census, all anyone can do is guesstimate.

Clearly shows Hausa's are the most populated by a mile, then why has the Fulani's conquered all of the Hausa's and half of the Yoruba's? Daura a once Hausa Emirate and Ilorin for the Yoruba's been a perfect example.

bigfrancis21:


In other words, if the Hausa-Fulani population is broken down individually, the Hausas could probably be at about 13.5% and Fulani's 13.5%, thus making the Igbo the single largest ethnic group in Nigeria.

Another question is if the Igbo figure includes Igbo speakers in SS and middle belt who number anywhere from 3m to 5m. If these speakers are excluded and we are to include them, the Igbo percentage might as well be at 16% to 18%.

Cc Scholes0

The only thing we have that is closest to an informed estimate of population spread are the telecoms data (attached below) because it is unbiased in any form, and it clearly shows the SE as the least populated while the SW is the single largest/most populated. Oyo and Ogun population alone are more than those of the SE combined (without including Lagos or Ekiti, Ondo, Osun or Kwara and Yoruba-speaking Kogi).

I am sorry but this is total B.S

No way in Hell Yorubas are 13 point something Percent of Nigeria.
Are you shittting me? Funny. Infact any figure below 20% if unacceptable for the Yorubas.

Yorubas must be Superhumans to influence Nigeria and Nigerians as much as they do with just 13.9%

CIA giving statistics about Nigeria. Do they know everything? Abeg.. Lemme sip my zobo

Without census.
Nonsense figure.

EternalTruths:
Without census.

Nonsense figure.

But Nigerians like quoting the same old CIA figures that said Igbos are only 18% while Hausa-Fulani are 29% of Nigeria. lolz

Eziokwu1:


But Nigerians like quoting the same old CIA figures that said Igbos are only 18% while Hausa-Fulani are 29% of Nigeria. lolz

Nigeria is filled with zombies.

No sensible person believed those figures since there is no census backing it.

Eziokwu1:

But Nigerians like quoting the same old CIA figures that said Igbos are only 18% while Hausa-Fulani are 29% of Nigeria. lolz

Contrary to your write up and qhat I just quoted you on, the old CIA figures are actually based on the result of an Old Nigerian census that included ethnic and religious data. They probably just did their own little tweaking to it and published it as research. EVeryone knows these western agencies know jackshit about Africa or Nigeria ...

This was where the old figures came from. It was the result of Nigeria's 1963 census, that was done before the civil war.

www.nairaland.com/attachments/2568779_48myjko_jpegcecde0d41350fd4fee05703ffa3d97bf

See, Before G.E.J came to power Ijaws have always been at 2% on that C.I.A and other sources Website. It was when the Niger Delta Militant crisis and Jonathan's ascension occured than They suddenly shot up to 10%.

As you can see, the old figures roughly corresponds to the new one, which was what they had up before like some sort of Ingenious research. Fulani plus Hausa, roughly 29%, Yoruba about 21%, Kanuris about 4%, Ibibis 3.5% yada yada..... They probably tweaked the figures and bumped Igbos up to 18 .... and so forth.....

what is CIA and what do they want?...who send them message?... I sense election rigging in process...

scholes0:
I am sorry but this is total B.S

No way in Hell Yorubas are 13 point something Percent of Nigeria.
Are you shittting me? Funny.

It's possible bro. You may have been believing false statistics all these while.

scholes0:


Contrary to your write up and qhat I just quoted you on, the old CIA figures are actually based on the result of an Old Nigerian census that included ethnic and religious data. They probably just did their own little tweaking to it and published it as research. EVeryone knows these western agencies know jackshit about Africa or Nigeria ...

This was where the old figures came from. It was the result of Nigeria's 1963 census, that was done before the civil war.

www.nairaland.com/attachments/2568779_48myjko_jpegcecde0d41350fd4fee05703ffa3d97bf

See, Before G.E.J came to power Ijaws have always been at 2% on that C.I.A and other sources Website. It was when the Niger Delta Militant crisis and Jonathan's ascension occured than They suddenly shot up to 10%.

As you can see, the old figures roughly corresponds to the new one, which was what they had up before like some sort of Ingenious research. Fulani plus Hausa, roughly 29%, Yoruba about 21%, Kanuris about 4%, Ibibis 3.5% yada yada..... They probably tweaked the figures and bumed Igbos up to 18 .... and so forth.....

It's all assumptions bro. US people aren't that superficial as we tend to be in Nigeria. Before anything is released, it is well-researched, checked and vetted. Yes, mistakes often happen but it is FAR unlikely that they would base their recent statistics on some old 1963 census.

By the way, the 1963 census is clearly biased and different from the 1921 census that I consider to be the most decent one in Nigeria's history. By 1963, it is clear that the 'Nigerian factor' had begun to set in, 'mago mago' and tribalistic statistics were starting to be released.

So chill, go grab some pop corn and join me while we digest the new census data that closely mirrors that of 1921. *munches loudly on some Chick Fil' A popcorn*

Eziokwu1:
The Central Intelligence Agency- CIA, The much quoted American intelligence unit website has made a revision on their website's Nigerian section under People and Society, Ethnic groups as well as Religion.: Updated November 09 , 2018.

According to them, this is the reflection of Nigeria's ethnic statistics:
Hausa 27.4%
Igbo (Ibo) 14.1%
Yoruba 13.9%
Fulani 6.3%
Tiv 2.2%
Ibibio 2.2%
Ijaw/Izon 2%
Kanuri/Beriberi 1.7%
Igala 1%
Others 28.9%
Unspecified 0.2%

It then goes on to say Muslims are 51.6% of the country, Christians are 46.9 (of which Roman Catholics are 11.2%), Traditionalists are 0.9%, while unspecified are 0.5%
https://www.cia.gov/llibrary/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ni.html

But knowing that this same CIA is the same agency responsible for the much peddled Hausa-Fulani 29%, Yoruba 21%, Igbo 18% Ijaw 10%, Kanuri 4%, Ibibio-Efik 3.5% Figure that was brandished around for a very long time, is it safe to say these new figures are also unrealistic and suspect?
Also the way they seem to be able to arrive at such precise percentages, plus their inclusion of an "unspecified" category seem to suggest that they did some sort of survey? (If they did, then when, where and how did it happen)

Take for example, How Igalas be 1% but Urhobos don't rank?
Hausas and Fulanis together are now 33.7% from 29%
Igbos are now 14.1% from 18%
Yorubas came as the biggest shock crashing down to 13.9% from a previous 21% More than 7% decrease.
Ijaws also went frm 10% to 2% (This one i am not surprised, because trust me, everyone knew Ijaws were not 10% of Nigeria)

The consequence of this is that Hausas alone are now the same population as Igbos and Yorubas combined, without even factoring in the fulanis YET.

What actually happened? Are the new stats more believable than the old one from the same Agency, or are both figures old and new total crap, which would only suggest that this so called agency are just amateurs sitting in some armchair in faraway Washington D.C making wild unresearched guesses? Hmmn.

The 27.4% figure given to Hausas somewhat raises a doubt. To prod further, is this percentage referring to the core or 'ethnic Hausas' or it includes all minority tribes in the North who are not ethnic Hausa but speak Hausa as first language? If so, if these minority tribes are excluded from this figure, what would be a most likely percentage for the Hausa? 15% maybe? 18% maybe?

Another question is if the Igbo figure includes Igbo speakers in SS (Anioma, Rivers, Bayelsa, Cross River, Akwa Ibom, Edo) and middle belt (Kogi and Benue States) who number anywhere from 3m to 5m. If these speakers are excluded and we are to include them, the Igbo percentage might as well be at 16% to 18%.

Cc Scholes0
Afam4eva
Probs

I find it hard to believe that the Hausas (alone) are more than a quarter of the country's population, their population being approximately equal to the other two major tribes combined. That's totally ridiculous

.

bigfrancis21:


It's possible bro. You may have been believing false statistics all these while.

Instead of you to take those figures with a pinch of salt, and argue why Igbos can not be 14.1% of Nigeria, you are quoting me because i said no way Yorubas can be a mere 13.9% of Nigeria, simply because the igbos outnumber the yorubas by 0.2 percentage points. Worse still, you aren't even talking about the impossible Hausa figures.okay na.

At least the old figures had a basis... What is the basis/statistical support behind the new figures

Eziokwu is probably the CIA Nigerian staff that changed it without any backing proof. But seriously though use your head na..... if you seriously believe Yorubas are less than 20% of Nigeria, that means Yorubas are indeed super humans to influence Nigeria this much with such little percentage share.

bigfrancis21:


Because it is a combined figure. Even at that, 27% is somewhat on the high side. Individually you might have 14% and 13% respectively for Hausa and Fulani (my guess). I still wonder why those 2 different ethnic groups are often grouped together.

There's a 6.3% quoted for the Fulanis which appears to be independent of the Hausa figure, so that should bring the total to 33.7%

Donelli:

There's a 6.3% quoted for the Fulanis which appears to be independent of the Hausa figure, so that should bring the total to 33.7%

Hmm I see. Hausas can't be that many in population.

.

bigfrancis21:


It's all assumptions bro. US people aren't that superficial as we tend to be in Nigeria. Before anything is released, it is well-researched, checked and vetted. Yes, mistakes often happen but it is FAR unlikely that they would base their recent statistics on some old 1963 census.

By the way, the 1963 census is clearly biased and different from the 1921 census that I consider to be the most decent one in Nigeria's history. By 1963, it is clear that the 'Nigerian factor' had clearly set in, 'mago mago' and tribalistic statistics were starting to be released.

So chill, go grab some pop corn and join me while we digest the new census data that closely mirrors that of 1921. *munches loudly on some Chick Fil' A popcorn*

1 No population headcount happened in 1921. What happened then is probably same as what just happened now, Difference being ignorant colonists vs Ignorant American government agency making..... Yes, Guesses.. Besides I am not saying the US agency is biased or superficial, I am just simply saying the figures are most likely wrong. Which is very very possible. Heck, the best of their intelligence units can't even get a simple election result prediction under their noses right.

2- If it is actually a RESEARCH like you claim it is, where is the methodology and report, or better still How and when was it done like the OP rightly asked?

3 how can you possibly believe Igalas are more than URHOBOS, Nupes or even Edos? Common be serious.... #*Stern Face*

scholes0:


Instead of you to take those figures with a pinch of salt, and argue why Igbos can not be 14.1% of Nigeria, you are quoting me because i said no way Yorubas can be a mere 13.9% of Nigeria, simply because the igbos outnumber the yorubas by 0.2 percentage points. Worse still, you aren't even talking about the impossible Hausa figures.okay na.

At least the old figures had a basis... What is the basis/statistical support behind the new figures

Eziokwu is probably the CIA Nigerian staff that changed it without any backing proof.

While this stat is false truth remains that igbos outnumber yorubas in Nigeria. Like someone said before 1963 census is not reliable because Nigeria factor has already crept in. 1921 was purely colonial and more reliable. This is a 1933 document quoting the 1921 census.

RockHard:


The only thing we have that is closest to an informed estimate of population spread are the telecoms data (attached below) because it is unbiased in any form, and it clearly shows the SE as the least populated while the SW is the single largest/most populated. Oyo and Ogun population alone are most than those of the SE combined (without including Lagos or Ekiti, Ondo, Osun or Kwara and Yoruba-speaking Kogi). cc scholes0

Check the number of Igbos outside Igbo land then compare it with other tribes men that are outside their region and see the gap..

Tell me a place in Nigeria you won't see some igbo dominated Communities ...
Mind you, Igbos are not only indigenous in SE

Again, you don't judge ethnic population based on voice call because alot of people have multiple sim cards for business.
To expose you more, we were told that NE has the highest voting strength in Nigeria while Northerners are most populated according to INEC and Nigeria population commission, but the reverse is the case with your submission.

Most people from SW use more than 20 sim cards for yahoo yahoo and the rest of them due to expoure. The same cannot be said about most northerners.

Try to understand where I am heading to

oilPUSSY:

Check the number of Igbos outside Igbo land then compare it with other tribes men that are outside their region and see the gap..

It still won't cover up all the deficit in the telecoms data figures. the gap between the SW and the others is just too much. Besides, what about the Yorubas in other regions too. Let all of us start extrapolating the figures for our different diaspora na.

Like seriously this was what the figures were in 2016
1* LAGOS - 12,620,662
2* OGUN - 5,629,424
3* OYO - 4,908,092
4* KADUNA - 4,231,710
5* KANO - 4,134,266

6* F.C.T - 4,132,172
7* RIVERS - 3,853,300
8* NIGER - 3,301,721
9* DELTA - 3,225,365
10* EDO - 3,144,922

11* ANAMBRA - 2,608,805
12* BENUE - 2,424,091
13* OSUN - 2,284,205
14* ONDO - 2,240,949
15* NASARAWA - 2,175,394

16* KWARA - 2,115,199
17* KOGI - 2,040,082
18* IMO - 2,023,867
19* ABIA - 2,010,551
20* PLATEAU - 1,921,857

21* KATSINA - 1,887,194
22* ENUGU - 1,873,467
23* AKWA IBOM - 1,861,330
24* ADAMAWA - 1,621,508
25* BAUCHI - 1,559,609

26* CROSS RIVER - 1,375,251
27* BORNO - 1,347,355
28* SOKOTO - 1,264,793
29* KEBBI - 1,162,543
30* TARABA - 1,154,720

31* GOMBE - 1,063,522
32* JIGAWA - 898,399
33* EKITI - 879,702
34* ZAMFARA - 851,669
35* EBONYI - 796,519
36* BAYELSA - 732,777

37* YOBE - 694,631
** OTHERS (UNIDENTIFIED) - 373,113

Total Nigeria Active Internet Subscriptions: 92,424,736

REGIONS:
South West = 28,563,034 Active Internet Subscriptions (31.0%)
South South = 14,192,945 Active Internet Subscriptions (15.35%)
South East = 9,313,209 Active Internet Subscriptions (10.0%)

North West = 14,430,574 Active Internet Subscriptions (15.61%)
North Central = 13,978,344 Active Internet Subscriptions (15.12%)
North East = 7,441,345 Active Internet Subscriptions (8.05%)

F.C.T = 4,132,172 Active Internet Subscriptions (4.47%)

oilPUSSY:

Check the number of Igbos outside Igbo land then compare it with other tribes men that are outside their region and see the gap..

Look here, even if we are to dash igbos 4 to 5-million out of the SW numbers, they will still fall far short compared to Yorubas in the SW coz like I said in my earlier post, Oyo and Ogun alone are more than the entire SE numbers from that data. Add another 5-million from the rest of the country and una go still fall short of the SW.

The 4 remaining SW states (as well as Kwara and YOruba-speaking Kogi) have a combined telecoms subscriber base of atleast 28-million.

MXrep:

While this stat is false truth remains that igbos outnumber yorubas in Nigeria. Like someone said before 1963 census is not reliable because Nigeria factor has already crept in. 1921 was purely colonial and more reliable. This is a 1933 document quoting the 1921 census.

lol, ok so you finally admit the stat is false, but also finally reveal you are just here to argue that Igbos are more than Yorubas in Nigeria, which is false.

RockHard:


Look here, even if we are to dash igbos 4 to 5-million out of the SW numbers, they will still fall far short compared to Yorubas in the SW coz like I said in my earlier post, Oyo and Ogun alone are more than the entire SE numbers from that data. Add another 5-million from the rest of the country and una go still fall short of the SW.

Stop using that to judge..
This figure from CIA is unbiased and accurate.

scholes0:


It still won't cover up all the deficit in the telecoms data figures. the gap between the SW and the others is just too much. Besides, what about the Yorubas in other regions too. Let all of us start extrapolating the figures for our different diaspora na.

Like seriously this was what the figures were in 2016
1* LAGOS - 12,620,662
2* OGUN - 5,629,424
3* OYO - 4,908,092
4* KADUNA - 4,231,710
5* KANO - 4,134,266

6* F.C.T - 4,132,172
7* RIVERS - 3,853,300
8* NIGER - 3,301,721
9* DELTA - 3,225,365
10* EDO - 3,144,922

11* ANAMBRA - 2,608,805
12* BENUE - 2,424,091
13* OSUN - 2,284,205
14* ONDO - 2,240,949
15* NASARAWA - 2,175,394

16* KWARA - 2,115,199
17* KOGI - 2,040,082
18* IMO - 2,023,867
19* ABIA - 2,010,551
20* PLATEAU - 1,921,857

21* KATSINA - 1,887,194
22* ENUGU - 1,873,467
23* AKWA IBOM - 1,861,330
24* ADAMAWA - 1,621,508
25* BAUCHI - 1,559,609

26* CROSS RIVER - 1,375,251
27* BORNO - 1,347,355
28* SOKOTO - 1,264,793
29* KEBBI - 1,162,543
30* TARABA - 1,154,720

31* GOMBE - 1,063,522
32* JIGAWA - 898,399
33* EKITI - 879,702
34* ZAMFARA - 851,669
35* EBONYI - 796,519
36* BAYELSA - 732,777

37* YOBE - 694,631
** OTHERS (UNIDENTIFIED) - 373,113

Total Nigeria Active Internet Subscriptions: 92,424,736

REGIONS:
South West = 28,563,034 Active Internet Subscriptions (31.0%)
South South = 14,192,945 Active Internet Subscriptions (15.35%)
South East = 9,313,209 Active Internet Subscriptions (10.0%)

North West = 14,430,574 Active Internet Subscriptions (15.61%)
North Central = 13,978,344 Active Internet Subscriptions (15.12%)
North East = 7,441,345 Active Internet Subscriptions (8.05%)

F.C.T = 4,132,172 Active Internet Subscriptions (4.47%)

I have modified my post. Go back and read my full comment, and read the reply I gave about those figures

oilPUSSY:

You are using 2006 fraudulent census to judge ?
This figure up there is from unbiased body...

I am using that data I posted earlier from the telecoms companies as a guide, not 2006 census bro.

MXrep:

While this stat is false truth remains that igbos outnumber yorubas in Nigeria. Like someone said before 1963 census is not reliable because Nigeria factor has already crept in. 1921 was purely colonial and more reliable. This is a 1933 document quoting the 1921 census.

even if we assume an headcount actually happened in 1921. for goodness sakes do you kow the difference between 1921 and now? Thats a friggin century.
Within that same time frame, Nigeria has gone from nowhere on the world list of most populated countries to number 7 globally. Heck in 1921 England was more populated than Nigeria plus Ghana plus Liberia plus Sierra Leone, not to mention the whole of the UK. And here you are quoting population figures from that ara like it is supposed to hod any statistical value?

RockHard:


I am using that data I posted earlier from the telecoms companies as a guide, not 2006 census bro.

OK,..Argue with CIA.