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CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... - Politics (9) - Nairaland

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Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by asamaigho(m): 6:58am On Nov 17, 2018
scholes0:


Contrary to your write up and qhat I just quoted you on, the old CIA figures are actually based on the result of an Old Nigerian census that included ethnic and religious data. They probably just did their own little tweaking to it and published it as research. EVeryone knows these western agencies know jackshit about Africa or Nigeria ...

This was where the old figures came from. It was the result of Nigeria's 1963 census, that was done before the civil war.

www.nairaland.com/attachments/2568779_48myjko_jpegcecde0d41350fd4fee05703ffa3d97bf

See, Before G.E.J came to power Ijaws have always been at 2% on that C.I.A and other sources Website. It was when the Niger Delta Militant crisis and Jonathan's ascension occured than They suddenly shot up to 10%.

As you can see, the old figures roughly corresponds to the new one, which was what they had up before like some sort of Ingenious research. Fulani plus Hausa, roughly 29%, Yoruba about 21%, Kanuris about 4%, Ibibis 3.5% yada yada..... They probably tweaked the figures and bumed Igbos up to 18 .... and so forth.....

Funny enough jonathan is not an ijaw man....he doesnt even understand ijaw language......He is an ogbia man from bayelsa state.
Henry seriake dickson is an ijaw man.
Timipre silva is a nembe man from okpama..brass lga..their language is quit similar to ijaw, so can be considered an ijaw man.
XALLING JONATHAN AN IJAW MAN IS JUST FOR POLITICAL REASONS.

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Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by Caseless: 7:22am On Nov 17, 2018
Eziokwu1:
The Central Intelligence Agency- CIA, The much quoted American intelligence unit website has made a revision on their website's Nigerian section under People and Society, Ethnic groups as well as Religion.: Updated November 09 , 2018.

According to them, this is the reflection of Nigeria's ethnic statistics:
Hausa 27.4%
Igbo (Ibo) 14.1%
Yoruba 13.9%
Fulani 6.3%
Tiv 2.2%
Ibibio 2.2%
Ijaw/Izon 2%
Kanuri/Beriberi 1.7%
Igala 1%
Others 28.9%
Unspecified 0.2%

It then goes on to say Muslims are 51.6% of the country, Christians are 46.9 (of which Roman Catholics are 11.2%), Traditionalists are 0.9%, while unspecified are 0.5%
https://www.cia.gov/llibrary/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ni.html

But knowing that this same CIA is the same agency responsible for the much peddled Hausa-Fulani 29%, Yoruba 21%, Igbo 18% Ijaw 10%, Kanuri 4%, Ibibio-Efik 3.5% Figure that was brandished around for a very long time, is it safe to say these new figures are also unrealistic and suspect?
Also the way they seem to be able to arrive at such precise percentages, plus their inclusion of an "unspecified" category seem to suggest that they did some sort of survey? (If they did, then when, where and how did it happen)

Take for example, How Igalas be 1% but Urhobos don't rank?
Hausas and Fulanis together are now 33.7% from 29%
Igbos are now 14.1% from 18%
Yorubas came as the biggest shock crashing down to 13.9% from a previous 21% More than 7% decrease.
Ijaws also went frm 10% to 2% (This one i am not surprised, because trust me, everyone knew Ijaws were not 10% of Nigeria)

The consequence of this is that Hausas alone are now the same population as Igbos and Yorubas combined, without even factoring in the fulanis YET.

What actually happened? Are the new stats more believable than the old one from the same Agency, or are both figures old and new total crap, which would only suggest that this so called agency are just amateurs sitting in some armchair in faraway Washington D.C making wild unresearched guesses? Hmmn.

you make me laugh when you say because igala is 1% , urhobo should be there. Lol! Urhobo people are more popular for the crisis they and itsekiri were having than their numbers. I told someone on another thread that, igala people are not happy with the mistake they made in the 1973 elections which saw Tiv having an imaginary higher number over the igalas - you know that census forms the basis for every figure you see today. They made mistake of failing to come out and be counted. In their own words, they felt coming out and to be counted would mean the government will force them to pay more taxes.

As for the ijaws, they're even far less than 2%.
Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by Caseless: 7:28am On Nov 17, 2018
asamaigho:


Funny enough jonathan is not an ijaw man....he doesnt even understand ijaw language......He is an ogbia man from bayelsa state.
Henry seriake dickson is an ijaw man.
Timipre silva is a nembe man from okpama..brass lga..their language is quit similar to ijaw, so can be considered an ijaw man.
XALLING JONATHAN AN IJAW MAN IS JUST FOR POLITICAL REASONS.
I told tonye this last time. Bayelsa is not homogeneously ijaw. Where did they get the number from when in their own state they're not alone?

Like scholes0 said, militancy and gej's(misunderstood to be ijaw) ascendancy to power gave them the voice to claim that outrageous figure.

Let's do the right census.
Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by FemiMaduka(m): 7:40am On Nov 17, 2018
eclecticbaron:


O please spare me your narrative. If that's what you mean, then there are native Ibibios too in Igbo states example in Abia state and they equally hold a stake in the state as far as it goes. Obviously if you settle in any community for a certain number of years it makes you a part of it, going by that analogy there are Ibibio natives who are also from Igbo speaking states. If that's the case what's the point you are trying to make? Get a grip man. Why is it that guys like you always think you can force people to agree with you but you don't want to see things from other people's perspective? In your words 'Your emotions take the better part of you and force you to want to stick to a convenient narrative - even when it has been proved to be baseless.' The emotional gist seems like a very convenient narrative for you, I've been following your convo on this issue and you throw that around, baselessly if I could borrow that from you.

This issue is actually a very simple one. If you actually have been reading me, you would have read where I wrote that there are Igala communities in both Enugu and Anambra states - and of course they are as much indigenous to Anambra and Enugu as much as folks from Onitsha and Enugu. So it follows, if indeed there are Ibibio native communities within the borders - a creation of government - of Abia state, that those Ibibios are Abians too!

I reiterate, 90% of Nigerians don't understand geography and history - if they did they would know that Igbos, Ibibios, Igalas, Ijaws etc. have always been long before the 'white man' set foot on the black continent, how much more the delineation of Nigeria into states and regions (for administrative convenience).

Come to think of it, do the Yorubas in Benin Republic become less Yoruba just because they are not politically merged with their kiths and kins in Lord Luggard's Nigeria?

C'mon! Every enlightened average man knows this.

It is time we begin to detach our minds from all those nonsensical narratives that make an average Nigerian mind spew ill-informed trash like Kwara-Yoruba, Delta-Ibo, etc... At least we agree the world is not flat, and flying is not witchcraft!

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Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by vyncentino(m): 8:00am On Nov 17, 2018
any one who thinks muslim have 51% population in Nigeria i is dreaming
Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by eclecticbaron: 8:20am On Nov 17, 2018
FemiMaduka:


This issue is actually a very simple one. If you actually have been reading me, you would have read where I wrote that there are Igala communities in both Enugu and Anambra states - and of course they are as much indigenous to Anambra and Enugu as much as folks from Onitsha and Enugu. So it follows, if indeed there are Ibibio native communities within the borders - a creation of government - of Abia state, that those Ibibios are Abians too!

I reiterate, 90% of Nigerians don't understand geography and history - if they did they would know that Igbos, Ibibios, Igalas, Ijaws etc. have always been long before the 'white man' set foot on the black continent, how much more the delineation of Nigeria into states and regions (for administrative convenience).

Come to think of it, do the Yorubas in Benin Republic become less Yoruba just because they are not politically merged with their kiths and kins in Lord Luggard's Nigeria?

C'mon! Every enlightened average man knows this.

It is time we begin to detach our minds from all those nonsensical narratives that make an average Nigerian mind spew ill-informed trash like Kwara-Yoruba, Delta-Ibo, etc... At least we agree the world is not flat, and flying is not witchcraft!

Right. I agree with you now based on what you've said. Meaning it doesn't affect just one tribe, its applicable to all tribes in Nigeria. Nice one. cool
Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by orisa37: 8:29am On Nov 17, 2018
Both figures old and new are total crap, which would only suggest that this so called agencies are political trouble shooters, planners and gamblers sitting in some armchair in faraway Washington D.C making wild unresearched guesses? They forecast for Obama that Nigeria would crash in 2015.
Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by alizma: 9:51am On Nov 17, 2018
NubaVertigo:


I want insight into it. Thanks
from the table attached, you can see that despite there was increasing figure of each tribes's population by the years, the percentage population of those tribes, when expressed as percentage of total population fell at the end of 5th year while that of Hausa/Fulani increases. this is because the rate at which Hausa/Fulani reproduce is higher than others. base yr percentage used is the same as old CIA percentage you quoted yesterday. I hope this explanation will change your understanding

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Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by waxyung(m): 10:15am On Nov 17, 2018
IbrahimDamola:


Oga most of these foreign agencies like UNHCR, WHO, FAO, CIA, have better statistics about your country than the FG even has about. I found out during my postgraduate studies. They are will funded and run NGOs right here in your country.

Wasn't it your DG of Bureau of Statistics Yemi kale, that claimed that he cannot provide data on unemployment rate because there is no money to collate data?


Hmmmmmm.... Sweet zobo
Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by ItsMeAboki(m): 11:08am On Nov 17, 2018
Some ppl are just incurably biased; they most probably wouldn't be questioning the data had the figures made the Hausa a minority and their own tribes majority - they'd be chest beating and hailing the CIA even if they knew the figures were incorrect.
Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by mandarin: 11:26am On Nov 17, 2018
alizma:

from the table attached, you can see that despite there was increasing figure of each tribes's population by the years, the percentage population of those tribes, when expressed as percentage of total population fell at the end of 5th year while that of Hausa/Fulani increases. this is because the rate at which Hausa/Fulani reproduce is higher than others. base yr percentage used is the same as old CIA percentage you quoted yesterday. I hope this explanation will change your understanding

Why I will dispute your position and I will want you to respond to my argument.

The base year distribution is a disputed figure just like past census figures in Nigeria and so to assume in this case can lead to erroneous conclusion

Two, how did you empirically arrive at the birth rate of each ethnic group or you also assumed Hausa and Fulani have the same rates?

What current realistically assumptions did you make to arrive at your figure?

My position has been clear from day one, its not just birth rate but death rate too impact population growth.

I hope you will agree with me that if you have a wrong base year figures then your degree of error escalates.

Lastly, all the existing data be it national ID, inec voters card school enrollment etc do not reflect this gap ,I mean let's be realistic ,upon the fact that northerners are often well mobilised for election ,the percentage difference is not this wide.
When you say Hausa Fulani do you also mean millions of other residents of Hausa Fulani dominated States and other states in interior north? I mean, what data did the CIA erroneously relied upon for their review?

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Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by Chukazu: 11:50am On Nov 17, 2018
hammerFC:



Dude stop putting your ignorance on display.

Igbo are not only found in large numbers in every cities in Nigeria.

They are also in Large numbers in US, UK, Europe, Asia i.e. Malay, Japan, China.

They are found in large numbers in Ghana, South Africa and generally other Africa countries.

They are more than Yorubas.

There's no way Igbo can be more than Yoruba, tribalism aside.
Look at the tendencies... Birth rate among Igbo is arguably the lowest in the country; Igbo tend to marry very late compare to other tribes.

Secondly Igbo hardly practice polygamy in marriage compare to Hausa and Yoruba tribes Who's religion still allows them to marry multiple wives

Then influx of neighboring tribes from across boarder line States, E:g a lot people from Niger Republic,Chad ,Mali and Mauritania can always infiltrate into Northern Nigeria and claim citizenship and align with the Hausa Fulani based on Fulani ancestry,

the same way people from Benin Republic and Togo can infiltrate Western Nigeria and align with the Yoruba.
The Ijaw can align with" MAMi water shocked shocked ' from the river to increase population, so it's only Igbo that is disadvantaged in all this scenario and with such i can't see his someone can claim Igbo to be more than the Yoruba.
Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by alizma: 4:18pm On Nov 17, 2018
mandarin:


Why I will dispute your position and I will want you to respond to my argument.

The base year distribution is a disputed figure just like past census figures in Nigeria and so to assume in this case can lead to erroneous conclusion

Two, how did you empirically arrive at the birth rate of each ethnic group or you also assumed Hausa and Fulani have the same rates?

What current realistically assumptions did you make to arrive at your figure?

My position has been clear from day one, its not just birth rate but death rate too impact population growth.

I hope you will agree with me that if you have a wrong base year figures then your degree of error escalates.

Lastly, all the existing data be it national ID, inec voters card school enrollment etc do not reflect this gap ,I mean let's be realistic ,upon the fact that northerners are often well mobilised for election ,the percentage difference is not this wide.
When you say Hausa Fulani do you also mean millions of other residents of Hausa Fulani dominated States and other states in interior north? I mean, what data did the CIA erroneously relied upon for their review?
if you don't believe in CIA and my data doesn't help you, definitely your case is different.
I don't think I am far from the truth in terms of those figures and assumptions that I deploy to throw light into what happened. remember this is not an official project but something to guide and minimize your confusion or disbelieve. the only few reasons why the reverse can be the case are
1. if you disagree with the fact that Hausa and Fulani born more than other tribes on average judgement
2. if you think average life span of a northerner shorter compare to other tribes.
Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by kabillionaire(m): 4:54pm On Nov 17, 2018
In all fairness, this statistics is not correct. So many tribes/ethnic groups are merged into a single tribe/ethnic group, especially in the case of Hausa, Fulani.
How do the CIA came about these statistics anyway? This's what is causing political imbalance in Africa, especially Nigeria.

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Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by scholes0(m): 5:35pm On Nov 17, 2018
Caseless:
you make me laugh when you say because igala is 1% , urhobo should be there. Lol! Urhobo people are more popular for the crisis they and itsekiri were having than their numbers. I told someone on another thread that, igala people are not happy with the mistake they made in the 1973 elections which saw Tiv having an imaginary higher number over the igalas - you know that census forms the basis for every figure you see today. They made mistake of failing to come out and be counted. In their own words, they felt coming out and to be counted would mean the government will force them to pay more taxes.

As for the ijaws, they're even far less than 2%.

Don't be silly Tivs are more than Igalas.
Urhobos very likely more too.
Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by scholes0(m): 6:22pm On Nov 17, 2018
alizma:

from the table attached, you can see that despite there was increasing figure of each tribes's population by the years, the percentage population of those tribes, when expressed as percentage of total population fell at the end of 5th year while that of Hausa/Fulani increases. this is because the rate at which Hausa/Fulani reproduce is higher than others. base yr percentage used is the same as old CIA percentage you quoted yesterday. I hope this explanation will change your understanding

www.nairaland.com/attachments/8156643_tmpcam1560102642_jpegc2e0b91dcd81c04e34536ba9c8a70d1a

Where is this report from?
And how did they calculate the rate by which each tribe was increasing over the years?

1 Like

Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by Naajjii: 9:55pm On Nov 17, 2018
scholes0:


Don't be silly Tivs are more than Igalas.
Urhobos very likely more too.

For your information half of Igalas are muslims and act like hausas with more than one wife and high birth rate.
Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by scholes0(m): 10:04pm On Nov 17, 2018
Naajjii:

For your information half of Igalas are muslims and act like hausas with more than one wife and high birth rate.

is high birth rate particular to any ethnic group?

A village tiv man in Gboko can have 11 kids from just one wife. They are the majority in Benue, but also significant in Nasarawa, Taraba and even northern Cross river... besides many people in rural areas are polygamous irrespective of religion.
Urhobos can also be polygamous even while being christian. They occupy the whole of Delta central and part of Warri South in Delta South, that is already more than Igalas who are like 40% of Kogi state with scattered communities elsewhere.

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Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by mandarin: 10:19pm On Nov 17, 2018
alizma:

if you don't believe in CIA and my data doesn't help you, definitely your case is different.
I don't think I am far from the truth in terms of those figures and assumptions that I deploy to throw light into what happened. remember this is not an official project but something to guide and minimize your confusion or disbelieve. the only few reasons why the reverse can be the case are
1. if you disagree with the fact that Hausa and Fulani born more than other tribes on average judgement
2. if you think average life span of a northerner shorter compare to other tribes.

Sorry for my late response.
Saying Hausa Fulani will mean the project focused exclusively on ethnic identities within sampled geographical areas.
Second, if the base assumptions are arguable, how do you validate disputed figures
I know Hausa Fulani do have many children so do other tribes, how did you arrive at those percentages?

Right from independence, the issue of population has been a source of dispute among ethnic groups,so assumptions especially about base data and growth rate must be veritable and factual and not just based on guesswork with large margin of error.
Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by Adek15(m): 7:16am On Nov 18, 2018
asamaigho:


Funny enough jonathan is not an ijaw man....he doesnt even understand ijaw language......He is an ogbia man from bayelsa state.
Henry seriake dickson is an ijaw man.
Timipre silva is a nembe man from okpama..brass lga..their language is quit similar to ijaw, so can be considered an ijaw man.
XALLING JONATHAN AN IJAW MAN IS JUST FOR POLITICAL REASONS.
hmmm... Nawa o. Nigeria is too complex abeg. Is Ogbia not a subset of Ijaw? Like say Aworis to Yorubas
Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by HarryDuce(m): 7:44am On Nov 18, 2018
When you say homogeneous, I wonder how knowledge you are about Bayelsa. First, there's no central Izon/Ijaw language that everyone who ascribes to be Ijaw can speak.

How do you know who is Ijaw and who is not? Except you're counting for only Bayelsa state, then I'd agree with you. But that would be ignorant.
Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by HarryDuce(m): 7:44am On Nov 18, 2018
Caseless:
I told tonye this last time. Bayelsa is not homogeneously ijaw. Where did they get the number from when in their own state they're not alone?

Like scholes0 said, militancy and gej's(misunderstood to be ijaw) ascendancy to power gave them the voice to claim that outrageous figure.

Let's do the right census.
When you say homogeneous, I wonder how knowledge you are about Bayelsa. First, there's no central Izon/Ijaw language that everyone who ascribes to be Ijaw can speak.

How do you know who is Ijaw and who is not? Except you're counting for only Bayelsa state, then I'd agree with you. But that would be ignorant.
Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by Naajjii: 12:13pm On Nov 18, 2018
scholes0:


is high birth rate particular to any ethnic group?

A village tiv man in Gboko can have 11 kids from just one wife. They are the majority in Benue, but also significant in Nasarawa, Taraba and even northern Cross river... besides many people in rural areas are polygamous irrespective of religion.
Urhobos can also be polygamous even while being christian. They occupy the whole of Delta central and part of Warri South in Delta South, that is already more than Igalas who are like 40% of Kogi state with scattered communities elsewhere.
Where do you get your fact from, yes they can be polygamous but just here and there unlike the Muslims that is a common situation, each wife gets like 6-7 kids times 3 it's 21 kids in a family. For your information Dekina local government is one of the biggest in Nigeria and the most populated in middlebelt aside from FCT. Besides there are Igalas communities in Benue, Anambra, Nassarawa,Enugu.
Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by scholes0(m): 7:13pm On Nov 18, 2018
Naajjii:

Where do you get your fact from, yes they can be polygamous but just here and there unlike the Muslims that is a common situation, each wife gets like 6-7 kids times 3 it's 21 kids in a family. For your information Dekina local government is one of the biggest in Nigeria and the most populated in middlebelt aside from FCT. Besides there are Igalas communities in Benue, Anambra, Nassarawa,Enugu.

Yes 21 kids per family happens, but HOW MANY Igala families do actually have 21 kids per family? lol pls be realistic , families with 21 kids are rare exceptions in Igalaland not the norm, infact from the middlebelt onwards to down south.
Dekina LG is not the most populated LG i the middle belt get your facts right.
Off the top of my head, I can already list at least 6 Lgas that are more populated than Dekina LG.

Ilorin West LG
Okene LG
Gboko LG
Makurdi LG
Jos North LG
Jos South LG
Mangu LG
Lafia LG

Some people just cook up imaginary figres within their social and tribal circles and chose to believe it all by themselves.
I repeat Igalas are not more than Tivs or Urhobos.
Igalas can believe whatever they like anyway.
Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by asamaigho(m): 9:21am On Nov 19, 2018
Caseless:
I told tonye this last time. Bayelsa is not homogeneously ijaw. Where did they get the number from when in their own state they're not alone?

Like scholes0 said, militancy and gej's(misunderstood to be ijaw) ascendancy to power gave them the voice to claim that outrageous figure.

Let's do the right census.

Gbam!

1 Like

Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by Naajjii: 9:54am On Nov 19, 2018
scholes0:


Yes 21 kids per family happens, but HOW MANY Igala families do actually have 21 kids per family? lol pls be realistic , families with 21 kids are rare exceptions in Igalaland not the norm, infact from the middlebelt onwards to down south.
Dekina LG is not the most populated LG i the middle belt get your facts right.
Off the top of my head, I can already list at least 6 Lgas that are more populated than Dekina LG.

Ilorin West LG
Okene LG
Gboko LG
Makurdi LG
Jos North LG
Jos South LG
Mangu LG
Lafia LG

Some people just cook up imaginary figres within their social and tribal circles and chose to believe it all by themselves.
I repeat Igalas are not more than Tivs or Urhobos.
Igalas can believe whatever they like anyway.


Nobody is arguing Tivs here ,Tivs is in the list and the most populated in middlebelt followed by Igala. But Urhobos is what am telling you they are not up to the Igalas.
What is rare exception you are saying, have you been to Igalaland am not saying Southern Igalaland go to areas like Ankpa, Omala and Dekina you will see lots families with 4 wives and each like 6 kids.
The percentage given here by CIA is a close estimate from the reality.
It's not about believing whatever they like it's about the fact and that reflects in the statistic.
Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by orunto27: 1:52pm On Nov 19, 2018
This Report is a Fraud.
Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by NubaVertigo(m): 3:35am On Nov 21, 2018
I finally got a response from the CIA.

Using their Web Form at https://www.cia.gov/contact-cia# I asked for a report on their methodology.

This is the response generated:


"Thank you for your interest in The World Factbook (WFB). The WFB’s breakdown of Nigeria’s ethnic groups comes from the Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey 2013, published in June 2014:



https://dhsprogram.com/publications/publication-FR293-DHS-Final-Reports.cfm"



The information is attainable here: https://dhsprogram.com/publications/publication-FR293-DHS-Final-Reports.cfm


I'm going to need some of you savvy Nairalanders to go through this.. Let me know when you draw conclusions lol
Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by NubaVertigo(m): 5:23am On Nov 21, 2018
All I can figure out so far is this:

From said 2013 report, it says

"With respect to ethnicity, 28 percent of women and 27 percent of men are Hausa, while 15 percent
of women and 13 percent of men belong to the Igbo ethnic group. Fourteen percent each of women and
men identified themselves as Yoruba. The Fulani ethnic group constitutes only 7 percent of women and 6
percent of men. There are more than 250 ethnic groups in Nigeria, but most comprise only small numbers.
For instance, the Ibibio, Ijaw, Kanuri, and Tiv ethnic groups each account for only 2 percent of the
population."

Other reports for previous years can be found here:

https://dhsprogram.com/What-We-Do/survey-search.cfm?pgtype=main&SrvyTp=country

From the 2008 report, we have

"The ethnic composition of the sample indicates that Hausa (22 percent), Yoruba (18 percent),
and Igbo (16 percent) are the major ethnic groups in Nigeria. Other ethnic groups constitute about 44
percent of the total sample, underscoring the multiplicity of ethnic groups in Nigeria"


From the 2003 report, we have

Hausa: 25 -27
Igbo: 13.4 - 13.6
Yoruba: 11.4 - 12


Keep in mind, these are not census results. They are only reports on the sample size having access to the Health Survey which is conducted every 5 years by the US DHA in many countries all over the world.

Now, after a little work to find out how representative the sample size is of the population, I found this at http://microdata.worldbank.org/index.php/catalog/2014/sampling:

"Sample Design
The sample for the 2013 NDHS was nationally representative and covered the entire population residing in non-institutional dwelling units in the country. The survey used as a sampling frame the list of enumeration areas (EAs) prepared for the 2006 Population Census of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, provided by the National Population Commission. The sample was designed to provide population and health indicator estimates at the national, zonal, and state levels. The sample design allowed for specific indicators to be calculated for each of the six zones, 36 states, and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.

Administratively, Nigeria is divided into states. Each state is subdivided into local government areas (LGAs), and each LGA is divided into localities. In addition to these administrative units, during the 2006 population census, each locality was subdivided into census enumeration areas. The primary sampling unit (PSU), referred to as a cluster in the 2013 NDHS, is defined on the basis of EAs from the 2006 EA census frame. The 2013 NDHS sample was selected using a stratified three-stage cluster design consisting of 904 clusters, 372 in urban areas and 532 in rural areas. A representative sample of 40,680 households was selected for the survey, with a minimum target of 943 completed interviews per state.

A complete listing of households and a mapping exercise were carried out for each cluster from December 2012 to January 2013, with the resulting lists of households serving as the sampling frame for the selection of households. All regular households were listed. The NPC listing enumerators were trained to use Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers to calculate the coordinates of the 2013 NDHS sample clusters.

A fixed sample take of 45 households were selected per cluster. All women age 15-49 who were either permanent residents of the households in the 2013 NDHS sample or visitors present in the households on the night before the survey were eligible to be interviewed. In a subsample of half of the households, all men age 15-49 who were either permanent residents of the households in the sample or visitors present in the households on the night before the survey were eligible to be interviewed. Also, a subsample of one eligible woman in each household was randomly selected to be asked additional questions regarding domestic violence.

For further details on sample size and design, see Appendix B of the final report."

A few things come up here... more clusters are representative rural areas as opposed to urban areas. Now, I have to admit, I have not been able to find what the Enumaration Areas in 2006 were. If someone can locate that, that would be cool...


I will continue this later because I have a life

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Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by NubaVertigo(m): 5:51am On Nov 21, 2018
What I will say so far is this.

1) A regular census has forms sent to each household and gives household representatives a chance to mark up the number of people living there. This is not that. This is an effort to collect an informed opinion on health matters representative of every section of the country using select representatives, particularly emphasizing on rural representation so their contribution is not left out.

2) If the Enumeration Area Demarcations used in 2006 did not account for higher population densities in areas like Lagos and Kano and the Clusters are based off them, then we have another blind side to the large amount of people in the cities.

3) If the North has more LGAs than the South and the Clusters are based off LGAs and geography, then we have another discrepancy... IF.

4) The fluctuation between the results from the 2003 Health report to the 2008 Health report to the 2013 Health report kind of imply that these numbers will change according to who gets access to these surveys during the next DHS survey which will happen every 5 years.

5) There is one going on this year, as can be read about here: https://www.von.gov.ng/nigeria-commences-2018-nigeria-demographic-health-survey/ and they have adjusted the Clusters to have higher representation in Lagos and Kano, which was not representative of the 2013 Health Survey.
See where it says "The sample size for the 2018 NDHS consists of a total of 1,400 clusters (small geographically defined areas) with each state and FCT having 37 clusters with the exception of Lagos and Kano States which have 53clusters respectively."

6) The 2006 census seems like it is still the most official Nigerian claim to census results, considering that the CIA winged it and used Health survey numbers for this one.
Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by NubaVertigo(m): 5:55am On Nov 21, 2018
If you click on this page https://dhsprogram.com/What-We-Do/Survey-Process.cfm and follow the links under "Methodology" you will find more information on how the survey was carried out.

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