Mcy56:

Sshhhhhh! Stop saying bad thing. Let's be praying for peace to reign instead.

I’m just stating the fact . Madam
https://punchng.com/2019-elections-army-begins-python-dance-nationwide-january/

Alepa:
I’m just stating the fact . Madam
https://punchng.com/2019-elections-army-begins-python-dance-nationwide-january/

Alright! Thought it's coming from you. Still, God remains the ultimate in all things.

onegentleguy:
Following my last post on the ACCESS/DIAMOND merger deal, I have received some mails requesting for more clarity on how best to KEY in/invest in both coys.
The best way to answer to that is to look at the possible discount to tap from(returns) before/pre and after/post merger.
In retrospect, the gap/difference between their current market prices(at any given point in time) to what they should actually sell for in relation to each other is the pre merger inherent discount, while that between the current market price to the effective allotment price(their face value considering the merger terms) is the post merger inherent discount.
With computing this, I shall also give a realistic view of 'what may likely be playing out behind the scenes' with respect to the merger/aquisation deal.

A quick math;

On the ACCESS side of the curve...
Effective allotment price of ACCESS= N7.45(this was calculated yesterday)
Current market price of ACCESS= N5.30(as at close of business yesterday)
Price a unit of ACCESS should sell relative to that of DIAMOND= N3.47 ...using the formula: [3.50 X (current market price of DIAMOND - 1)] and inputting DIAMONDS yesterday closure price of N1.99.
Therefore pre merger inherent discount= relative price - current market price= 3.47 - 5.30= -N1.83
The negative sign means that the discount is an approx 34.5% premium.
...the interpretation of this is that given the merger terms, u will be paying N1.83 more buying ACCESS right now when the price of DIAMOND is N1.99 !!
Post merger inherent discount= 7.45 - 5.30= N2.15

On the DIAMOND side of the curve...
Effective allotment price of DIAMOND = N2.13(merger valuation - cash consideration)
Current market price of DIAMOND= N1.99(as at close of business yesterday)
Price a unit of DIAMOND should sell relative to that of ACCESS= N2.51 ...using the formula: [(2/7 X current market price of ACCESS) + 1] and inputting ACCESS' yesterday closure price of N5.30.
Therefore pre merger inherent discount= relative price - current market price= 2.51 - 1.99= 0.52
Which is an approx 26% discount.
Again the interpretation of this is that given the merger terms, u will be paying 52k less buying DIAMOND right now
when the price of ACCESS is N5.30 !!

So pre merger, DIAMOND presents the opportunity of a discount to tap from(ROI), while ACCESS presents none than a premium.
ACCESS however presents some value gap to tap from post merger. ...which presently stands at N2.15(7.45 - 5.30), an approx 40% upside potential.

My inference:
It makes sense to believe that pre merger, ACCESS might experience more SELL pressure, while DIAMOND could maintain more BUY pressure. ...until of course there is an equilibrium on their price relation or if their merger face value is achieved.
This should give u an idea of what might be playing out behind the scenes with respect to this deal.
A game/ploy to depress the price of ACCESS while mopping up DIAMOND pre merger and then exchanging it with ACCESS at a cheap before coming back with full force to mop up ACCESS post merger might not be far from been true.
...particularly because the terms therein shows a mutually inclusive and directly proportional entities.

Conclusion:
Pre merger, Mr DIAMOND wins while Mr ACCESS is subdued, while post merger Sir ACCESS 'resurrects' !!
Those who know and understand know how they need to 'play their cards'.

CAVEAT: This analysis is strictly for informational purpose only. It should only serve as a guide to further ur investing strategy with both coys, and NOT a recommendation.
...due diligence still applies.

Report reaching me has it that the planned EGM of ACCESS wherein the board intends to get the approval of its shareholders to raise funds via rights has been postponed untill further notice !!
The meeting was originally scheduled to hold on Friday the 1st of February, 2019.
According to my source, the reason for this postponement is still shrouded in secrecy(unknown)

Note however that this has nothing to do with the procedural phase of the merger/aquisation deal between it and DIAMOND bank. ...it's just the rights issue.
Perhaps the management of ACCESS have seen that it would be difficult to market the said rights issue(especially to minority shareholders) if it went ahead with it at this time.
This postponement will likely aide in putting more downside pressure on the price of ACCESS in the short term.
However, if the motive behind it is to play out the bolded as I highlighted in my post above, then I expect the price of ACCESS to experience even more pressure. ...particularly in the short term.
On the flip side, it could also be that some heavyweights might want to adopt the strategy of mopping up the coy from the floor. ...after all, in reality it would serve them better since ACCESS is now selling at a discount from its intrinsic/FVE if one were to consider its actual valuation post merger.
...and should this be the case, then I expect an upswing or at very least stability in the equity price of ACCESS.

Either way, DIAMOND wins in the near term until the merger deal is effected.
We continue to observe !!

DISCLAIMER: NOT to be interpreted as any sought of recommendation. ...due diligence should still remain ur 1st priority.

Mcy56:

Sorry to bring this up again.
Na now I just do the maths myself, dont mind me, you were right.
I was using 7D to 1A before, my eyes just dey clear now. Thanks.
Thanks to others who solved the riddle as well. Invariably DMD pays more than Access for now considering the current price.

No worries madam. You be my boss now.

Alepa:

Operation python dance 3 will begin very soon throughout Nigeria and it will end a couple of weeks after the election .
Anybody from any region that wants to try nonsense will smell pepper .

Do they want to militarize 2019 general election, federal government should handle military with care, to avoid military taking over the government in disguise of fighting election violence.
Not he that goes to court first win. As for me I don't need violence or anything that will affect our stock market or economy.

https://oilprice.com
Hope brent crude oil price will find support at 60 dollar, after climbing from 50 to 60, since yesterday I notice some reversal movement, Seplat losing 640 to 576 (#64 = 10 %)
Let it not move down below our 2019, 60 dollar per a barrel budget benchmark, to avoid affecting our stock.

Chibuking81:

Do they want to militarize 2019 general election, federal government should handle military with care, to avoid military taking over the government in disguise of fighting election violence.
Not he that goes to court first win. As for me I don't need violence or anything that will affect our stock market or economy.

Ok. So you prefer that no armed forces should be deployed to curb any act of violence?
Pmb has said he personally instructed the forces to deal ruthlessly with anyone that tries any form of rigging or nonsense at any level!
And only someone or a group of people planning evil things ahead of the elections will not be comfortable with that .

My interest is for bull to take a center stage in NSE at the end of this 2019 election, whether Incumbent President lose the election or win, let God that's knows tomorrow through the people best need, give us the best president come 2019. Anyone can win but let it be the will of God. And he that can move our economy to a positive direction.

Some people are cursed.

Alepa:

Ok. So you prefer that no armed forces should be deployed to curb any act of violence?
Pmb has said he personally instructed the forces to deal ruthlessly with anyone that tries any form of rigging or nonsense at any level!
And only someone or a group of people planning evil things ahead of the elections will not be comfortable with that .

I beg you in the name of God, go to politics section were you rightful belong. You keep on dragging us into politics. You are fond of jumping on the neck of anyone in this section, that wanted to pass a message concerning stocks, and mixed it together with a little economy statement that has political link up.

Friends, help cross check Alepa profile post, you will agree with me that he has not contributed anything in this our section that has something to do with stocks, but he is all for politics.

If he claim to have interest in stock, please help me beg him to stop dragging us into politics, yes he might be Buhari or Atiku supporter, but there is right section for that.

This is purely for stock pick, which include recommendations, like stocks to buy, hold, accumulate and sell.

This section is for mature mind, that does not use insult languages.

Chibuking81:


I beg you in the name of God, go to politics section were you rightful belong. You keep on dragging us into politics. You are fond of jumping on the neck of anyone in this section, that wanted to pass a message concerning stocks, and mixed it together with a little economy statement that has political link up.

Friends, help cross check Alepa profile post, you will agree with me that he has not contributed anything in this our section that has something to do with stocks, but he is all for politics.

If he claim to have interest in stock, please help me beg him to stop dragging us into politics, yes he might be Buhari or Atiku supporter, but there is right section for that.

This is purely for stock pick, which include recommendations, like stocks to buy, hold, accumulate and sell.

This section is for mature mind, that does not use insult languages.

Alepa:
Some people are cursed.

One second you jumped on my mention when I didn’t even quote you in the first place . And next second you’re screaming “don’t drag us into politics “ bla bla bla .
You have always been posting of how Buhari will lost bla bla bla and how there will be a change of government bla bla bla on this same thread .But the moment someone doesn’t ageee with your stupid analogy , you start screaming and wailing “don’t drag us into politics “.
They should check my profile bla bla bla .
Why are you so intolerant?
Did you buy my phone or any of my devices for me to dictate what to post on Nairaland for me?
So because I’m following this thread and other threads in this section ,I should not post in other sections again?
You need to get your brain checked chibu or whatever your name is .
The other day you were screaming of how there will be bull after elections and I asked you a simple and innocent question. “What exactly is your analysis based on, was there a bull after 2015 elections ?“
But instead of you to give a reasonable response. You went on wailing “I know you’re a politician,bla bla bla bla bla , it was jejebaba or so that gave a sound,reasonable,solid and factual response and he even backed it up with proofs .
You put emotions into basically everything. What is your problem exactly?
It was even MCY56 that started the talk about elections and violence .but the moment I quoted her to assure and show him/her the armed forces will curb any act of violence. Your ears went up and you began screaming and wailing .
Are you plannning any act of violence? Chibuking . I bet you are, and that’s why you’re restless .
Well, I trust the army and police to deal with you ruthlessly .
Someone tackled you with your bonanza nonsense that you have been screaming up and down but you only shined teeth .
You have problem o . Serious problem.
Take this drug and get some good sleep . You go dy alright sir

Alepa:
Some people are cursed.

Chai! This is not necessary dear.
Your blood too dey hot when it comes to politics o.
I mentioned election in relations to the prediction that stock prices will fall seriously and was just looking at it from the perspective that there might not be violence as envisaged.
Please let's tolerate ourselves and maintain decorum here. Thanks.

Mcy56:

Chai! This is not necessary dear.
Your blood too dey hot when it comes to politics o.
I mentioned election in relations to the prediction that stock prices will fall seriously and was just looking at it from the perspective that there might not be violence as envisaged.
Please let's tolerate ourselves and maintain decorum here. Thanks.

Thanks for your observation.

Please help me view his profile post, I am 100% sure, he did not belong here, because all his post never have anything to do with stock.

Chibuking81:

No need for this sir. You are an "elder" here and much more than that. He's an investor as well and equally entitle to his opinion.

Chibuking81:
Thanks for your observation.

Please help me view his profile post, I am 100% sure, he did not belong here, because all his post never have anything doing with stock.

Shey won sépè fún e ni?
Why are you so intolerant for heavens sake ?
Haba! Kilode!
What’s your problem exactly you this Chukudi boy?

Lets us all know dat "for what ever we utter with our mouths there are a million and one meanings we imply which we may not say in words but in action"...... this is a public faceless forum, nothing uttered here should hardly evoke strong emotions......It only gives a picture of the working of each individual minds...............bla bla bla

maishai:
Lets us all know dat "for what ever we utter with our mouths there are a million and one meanings we imply which we may not say in words but in action"...... this is a public faceless forum, nothing uttered here should hardly evoke strong emotions......It only gives a picture of the working of each individual minds...............bla bla bla

Abeg make someone help me confirm is this NSEMPA? Or another group cos all the post I'm reading since are confusing me

Alepa:

Shey won sépè fún e ni?
Why are you so intolerant for heavens sake ?
Haba! Kilode!
What’s your problem exactly you this Chukudi boy?

Bobo Pls take it easy, we should learn to tolerate each other and is not everything we should give response to. I have learnt a lot on this forum and part of what i learnt is that i can trade myself instead of hoping on my broker, also i can consolidate CHN irrespective of where and how i bought the stocks which i did and has worked ok. Mabinu omo yemi jebure. All am on this forum to make is money and i dont care even if anybody abuse my father, thank God my sweet dad is even dead so pls oo otitto gee. Part of my target for the yr is to make 5m atleast on NSE so pls make we no disturb free flow of the spirit oo

@ Chibuking, please to maintain peace, dont comment on anything election on this forum again u can do that on the politics thread. Either APC or PDP wins nothing will happen, the major contenders are north vs north so pls lets hold our peace biko! dalu chineke goziege. Meanwhile, wetin oracle talk concerning next week NSE activities cos na 5m be my target to make on NSE this yrs by God grace while i go balance the rest of my target for the yr from treasury bills. i dey await your response.

aremso:



It could come in different form but to me is when I sold 90k unit of zenith and bought 116k back with same money but I don't really know the ratio of what I got free but I know I got 26k free

Correct businessman.

Michael11stock:
Abeg make someone help me confirm is this NSEMPA? Or another group cos all the post I'm reading since are confusing me

Confirmento! This is Nsempa.
That overdose up there just dey fear person, e fit kill.

Jejebabaa:
No worries madam. You be my boss now.

how your Transcorp? I miss you this weekend we for relate

Mcy56:

Confirmento! This is Nsempa.
That overdose up there just dey fear person, e fit kill.

Michael11stock:
how your Transcorp? I miss you this weekend we for relate

Think I mentioned that I sold it when it was going down, my itchy fingers though. Waiting for it at sub 1.20 again.
While waiting, I already started buying Nem small small since the day it dropped to 2.11 and still buying more as its dropping though its found a support at 1.74 or thereabout now... the kind of stock for we tashere shareholders. Transcorp's got much drama jorr.

https://nairametrics.com/first-bank-md-feels-access-diamond-merger-is-a-welcome-development/ Access Diamond Merger is a welcome development

me too dear I sold mine, it was bad for me since August last year no movement had to bail out. Don't worry things will work out for us this new year In Jesus name Amen

Mcy56:

Think I mentioned it that I sold it when it was going down, my itchy fingers though. Waiting for it at sub 1.20 again.
While waiting, I already started buying Nem small small since the day it dropped to 2.11 and still buying more as its dropping though its found a support at 1.74 or thereabout now... the kind of stock for we tashere shareholders. Transcorp's got much drama jorr.

Michael11stock:
me too dear I sold mine, it was bad for me since August last year no movement had to bail out. Don't worry things will work out for us this new year In Jesus name Amen

Amen. So you gave up on it eventually but I think its worth keeping eyes on from now on, it might likely make investors smile, not a good time for you to sell if you'd ask me..... my opinion anyway.
Diamond too should be considered, its worth looking at.

If my children should ask me, daddy what was your greatest regret? I would tell them not following my instinct to bail out from transcorp to buy Diamond bank when it was 0.68kobo. By now I for don move to our new house from the proceed buy new car on top too

Mcy56:
Their right issue is wrongly timed cos the politicians that can buy at whatever amount are busy spending for election. They may suspend it. Let them come back after election when they must have recouped the spent funds.

In relations to what OGG posted about Access' right issue suspension, I guess as much too when I made this comment.

Michael11stock:
If my children should ask me, daddy what was your greatest regret? I would tell them not following my instinct to bail out from transcorp to buy Diamond bank when it was 0.68kobo. By now I for don move to our new house from the proceed buy new car on top too

Lol. Its well. People have regrets at one point in time or the other but the best bet is forge ahead.
Move on.....opportunities still abound in the market and you can achieve your dreams, no need crying over spilt milk, God's time is the best.
You've been in the market for long na haba! You must might have experience different scenarios such as this in the past.

Michael11stock:
If my children should ask me, daddy what was your greatest regret? I would tell them not following my instinct to bail out from transcorp to buy Diamond bank when it was 0.68kobo. By now I for don move to our new house from the proceed buy new car on top too

Mine would be the day I hesitated to buy zenith @ #8 during the financial crisis, As a buy and hold investor I should have recovered my capital when they pay this years final dividend.....House Abeg tell me any property some1 can buy and recover his capital from rentage in 3 years........Danburuba Shege for this Zenith