Welcome, Guest: Register On Nairaland / LOGIN! / Trending / Recent / NewStats: 3,197,517 members, 7,965,081 topics. Date: Thursday, 03 October 2024 at 08:10 AM |
Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Politics / 2023: Only South-West, South-East Disagreement Can Keep Power In North – Ahamba (17185 Views)
2023: There’s No Such Office As Igbo Presidency – Ahamba To SE Aspirants / Only South West Has Properly Managed Its Diversity, Says Jonathan / The Only South-easterner In Aso Villa Is A Photographer - Senator Abaribe (2) (3) (4)
(1) (2) (3) ... (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (Reply) (Go Down)
Re: 2023: Only South-West, South-East Disagreement Can Keep Power In North – Ahamba by Nobody: 12:36am On Aug 28, 2019 |
isthatso:I take exception to insult. Maybe, sense eluded you too. Get me well. You misunderstood me. Go to the 2011 figure. I wasn't interested in calculating the state by stats votes in the SW and adding them together to know who who got who. My point is that Yorubas' votes were not a major determinant (so to say) in 2011. Check the Benin votes of over 600k and others from the middle belt, compare it to that of other SW states (apart from Lagos who has more non-Yorubas living there) and tell me whether the Middle Belt's didn't determine Jonathan's win in 2011. Also, that of 2015 Lagos votes of over 700k were contributed by both Yorubas, Igbos and other tribes living in Lagos and cannot be used as a yardstick to determine Yorubas' strength. That's what I meant. I have no time for calculation. |
Re: 2023: Only South-West, South-East Disagreement Can Keep Power In North – Ahamba by Nobody: 12:45am On Aug 28, 2019 |
Mandeyy: My friend you cannot be dealing with figures and be saying you have no time for calculation. Eldction at the end of the day mathematics, addition and subtraction...that's all!! if you are not ready to understand the figures and their meaning you are bound to lose. For instance Kaduna in 2011 has big figures with 3 million voters, but at the end of the day it was no more important than and in fact nullified by osun with less than 200K voters. Buhari got 1.3m votes in Kaduna but GEJ got 1.19M, the net effect is 140K votes for Buhari. meanwhile osun gave GEJ 188K and Buhari 6k..net effect + 182 K in favour of GEJ, so for all the millions in Kaduna that Year, small Osun state put GEJ ahead because it wiped out Buhari's victory in Kaduna with 40k to spare! |
Re: 2023: Only South-West, South-East Disagreement Can Keep Power In North – Ahamba by Nobody: 12:49am On Aug 28, 2019 |
isthatso:Who is humbling? I noticed a discrepancy in the number of votes cast and 1.23 million votes' swing you calculated, and I decided to ask a question and you turned it to a "humbling" thing. Well, I've seen your calculation. We're all entitled to our opinion. I saw Jonathan's margin in 2011 against Buhari. So, I disagree with you on this. Buhari surpassed him with 160k votes only, in 2015 while Jonathan beat him with a difference of over 1.1 million in 2011. So, the 1.23 million swing of a thing made no sense to me. My interest lies in the fact that Lagos is cosmopolitan comprising so many non-Yorubas and its votes cannot be used as a yardstick to test Yorubas' voting strength. |
Re: 2023: Only South-West, South-East Disagreement Can Keep Power In North – Ahamba by Nobody: 12:50am On Aug 28, 2019 |
Mandeyy: what do you have to say about ogun and osun? The fact that you dont even know what a swing vote is says everything! |
Re: 2023: Only South-West, South-East Disagreement Can Keep Power In North – Ahamba by Nobody: 12:55am On Aug 28, 2019 |
isthatso:Guy, I'm dealing with the figures I saw. Swing votes was not our original discussion. We were discussing regional voting strength before you veered off to calculation and swing votes. |
Re: 2023: Only South-West, South-East Disagreement Can Keep Power In North – Ahamba by Nobody: 1:05am On Aug 28, 2019 |
Mandeyy: I hate to say it but I am clearly dealing with someone who hasnt got a grasp of basic concepts. Elections are about numbers, inec doesnt care if you are Ibo hausa or yoruba, INEC counts numbers and whoever has the highest number wins. If you do not understand how the election arithmetic works, then there is nothing I can do for you. By your own admission you dont want to deal with figures. how can a man talk about elections and counting numbers when he doesnt know the relationship between the numbers. it s like a surgeon saying he doesnt like blood. Final word: Elections are a race, in a race your speed does not matter, what matters is your speed relative to your opponent. If you are doing 150kph and your opponent is doing 200kph you will lose but if your opponent is doing 50kph then all you need to win is to go at 60kph. Elections are not about absolute numbers but relative numbers. it's not about how many votes you get, it's about how many votes you get relative to your opponent You can get 2m votes but if you opponent gets 1,999,999m all you have to show is 1 vote and if he has 100k votes from somewhere else you have lost!! You are getting too bogged down in the sentiment to see clearly and there are basic concepts you clearly do not understand that will affect you judgement. Knowledge is power.........seek it!!!! |
Re: 2023: Only South-West, South-East Disagreement Can Keep Power In North – Ahamba by Nobody: 1:06am On Aug 28, 2019 |
isthatso:Your calculation is diversionary. In that case, you contradicted yourself too because you said that Middle Belt's votes are usually small and irrelevant. Besides, I don't believe Osun's or SW's votes made much difference. The difference came from the Middle Belt, Niger Delta and Igbo. So, that has been my argument. |
Re: 2023: Only South-West, South-East Disagreement Can Keep Power In North – Ahamba by Nobody: 1:11am On Aug 28, 2019 |
Mandeyy: Oh lord!!! You are digging, the more you post the more i wonder! what i said is that the margins of victory in the Middle belt are never here nor there, 50k, 70k, they dont do damage. you never get 400k swings in the middle belt like you do in the SW. 1 sw swing state can take care of the entire middle belt. but somehow I get the feeling you still dont understand what i am saying. So i shall just end this here. Good night |
Re: 2023: Only South-West, South-East Disagreement Can Keep Power In North – Ahamba by Nobody: 1:12am On Aug 28, 2019 |
Mandeyy: i gave you lagos, you said ibo dey lagos, i gave you osun and ogun, you are saying it's not the discussion. Abeg I don tire!!! |
Re: 2023: Only South-West, South-East Disagreement Can Keep Power In North – Ahamba by Nobody: 1:13am On Aug 28, 2019 |
isthatso:Guy, you're funny. It's numbers I got from the votes that I meant, not the swing votes. INEC doesn't calculate swing votes, they deal with real votes cast. The argument is long overdue. You're entitled to your opinion; I'm entitled to mine. That's all! |
Re: 2023: Only South-West, South-East Disagreement Can Keep Power In North – Ahamba by Nobody: 1:21am On Aug 28, 2019 |
Mandeyy: My brother your journey is long, You dont understand numbers, that is clear. If you dont understand something , you will always be talking out of ignorance and making a fool of yourself. Inec counts actual votes, Inec does not know or care if a vote is swing or not, hausa or ibo, yoruba, Muslim or christian, male or female! Swing votes/swing voters is a concept for political parties and strategists. Understanding swing votes and their importance is the job of political parties and their strategists. Has it not occurred to you all this while to google "swing votes"? https://www.thefreedictionary.com/swing+voter https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swing_(politics) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swing_(politics) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swing_vote Final goodnight, I have tried, try and help yourself!!! |
Re: 2023: Only South-West, South-East Disagreement Can Keep Power In North – Ahamba by Nobody: 1:29am On Aug 28, 2019 |
isthatso:It's one is one. You abused me first. That shows you've reached the highest level of intelligence. I saw it now and I didn't like it. Besides, you can't be 100 percent sure that Igbos would have voted massively for Atiku without Peter Obi as the VP candidate. You tend to foreclose your judgment. Electioneering is dynamic. At times, permutations fail. Besides, Anambra gave Atiku more votes than the figures reeled out. We were witnesses to how the governor worked against the PDP and harassed voters just because he's not on good terms with Peter Obi. You first accused me of insulting your tribe, but you insulted me first. You don't really even know me and you typed that nonsense you did on the last paragraph just because of argument. He who comes to equity must come with clean hands. Bye. |
Re: 2023: Only South-West, South-East Disagreement Can Keep Power In North – Ahamba by Nobody: 1:36am On Aug 28, 2019 |
isthatso:You see yourself. I said that I believe in actual figures cast which INEC believes in, not swing votes of yours. That's what I meant. You just like rushing into conclusion. Nawa ooo. |
Re: 2023: Only South-West, South-East Disagreement Can Keep Power In North – Ahamba by Nobody: 1:44am On Aug 28, 2019 |
isthatso:I pray that another person will see our argument. You don't understand somebody before jumping into conclusion. I told you earlier that I was not interested in swing votes, that I'm much interested in actual votes cast which INEC counted, but you misunderstood me. This argument is long overdue. Just learn how to cultivate manners in discussion because this is an online form. People disagree to agree. But all I know is that every region is politically important. No region determines anything without alliance with others. That has been my submission all along. |
Re: 2023: Only South-West, South-East Disagreement Can Keep Power In North – Ahamba by Halexgos3(m): 10:39am On Aug 28, 2019 |
Wentin Yoruba get abeg especially in terms of development in Nigeria? |
Re: 2023: Only South-West, South-East Disagreement Can Keep Power In North – Ahamba by engrchykae(m): 12:29pm On Aug 28, 2019 |
hollah123:remember these words. "our opportunity will come " Nature has a way of doing her thing. even evil do have its ordained time. |
Re: 2023: Only South-West, South-East Disagreement Can Keep Power In North – Ahamba by nogragra: 9:51am On Aug 29, 2019 |
Mrfeel:.....blah, blah blah,...you global thieves and criminals?...we know already. As to the brown roof when the great war of Nigeria coming soon is over it doesn't take years to transform, wait and see, from your alapotopoto. |
Re: 2023: Only South-West, South-East Disagreement Can Keep Power In North – Ahamba by Mrfeel: 10:38am On Aug 29, 2019 |
nogragra:I don't know what you mean by that, but we have fought civil war, everything was destroyed in our region we bounced back and we are rich competing shoulder to shoulder with you afonja's, visit our villages and see fenced mansions all over our villages with electricity, unlike the mud brown roof houses you afonja's live in, no matter what happens we are the bravest and smartest tribe in this country and we can survive anything even if a second civil war happens it won't take time for us to get back on our feets |
Re: 2023: Only South-West, South-East Disagreement Can Keep Power In North – Ahamba by Chukapage(m): 8:10am On Sep 18, 2019 |
IntrovertedK:just like you lots did in 2015! Nothing concerns you with the politics the East will play in 2023 even if we like we vote Buhari or Usman Dan fodio e no concern you! |
Re: 2023: Only South-West, South-East Disagreement Can Keep Power In North – Ahamba by Chukapage(m): 8:15am On Sep 18, 2019 |
isthatso:lol politics in Nigeria did not start in 2015 stop deceiving yourself oo the same odds that was stacked up against the East in 2015 is what you lots will be facing in 2023 stop deceiving yourself. Once Apc brings out a Westerner automatically Pdp will field a Northerner. And if you think the North is as dumb as you lots that supported a Northerner over a Southerner in 2015 think again ! North will always vote North you know! |
Re: 2023: Only South-West, South-East Disagreement Can Keep Power In North – Ahamba by Chukapage(m): 8:21am On Sep 18, 2019 |
IntrovertedK:lol is it your fear? free igbos 2023 they will do exactly what you did in 2015 . Una start am |
Re: 2023: Only South-West, South-East Disagreement Can Keep Power In North – Ahamba by Chukapage(m): 8:33am On Sep 18, 2019 |
isthatso:you are saying the Truth but you are bending it by putting "South East" NO SOUTHERNER WILL WIN IN 2023 MARK IT! THE BUHARI EFFECT WILL GO! THE EAST IS WILL RATHER VOTE BUHARI FOR THIRD TERM THAN VOTE A WESTERNER . PDP CANDIDATE WILL BE A NORTHERNER WITH AN EASTERNER VICE .if Apc fields a Westerner which is the obvious they will LOOSE! The North will always vote a Northerner over a Southerner no matter what you know it unless Apc fields a Northerner then the will most likely win ,but if the put A Westerner there banking on Northern votes the are in for a shocker! And for the records the East don't give a Bleep if Pdp fields a Northerner they will just vote him! I don't need to tell you where the Northern votes will go 2023 will be reverse of 2015 |
Re: 2023: Only South-West, South-East Disagreement Can Keep Power In North – Ahamba by Chukapage(m): 8:34am On Sep 18, 2019 |
isthatso:you are saying the Truth but you are bending it by putting "South East" NO SOUTHERNER WILL WIN IN 2023 MARK IT! THE BUHARI EFFECT WILL GO! THE EAST IS WILL RATHER VOTE BUHARI FOR THIRD TERM THAN VOTE A WESTERNER . PDP CANDIDATE WILL BE A NORTHERNER WITH AN EASTERNER VICE .if Apc fields a Westerner which is the obvious they will LOOSE! The North will always vote a Northerner over a Southerner no matter what you know it unless Apc fields a Northerner then the will most likely win ,but if the put A Westerner there banking on Northern votes the are in for a shocker! And for the records the East don't give a Bleep if Pdp fields a Northerner they will just vote him! I don't need to tell you where the Northern votes will go 2023 will be reverse of 2015 .. |
Re: 2023: Only South-West, South-East Disagreement Can Keep Power In North – Ahamba by Chukapage(m): 8:39am On Sep 18, 2019 |
IntrovertedK:is it your "cowardice"? leave it for us make we coward dey go .2023 is 2015 in reverse the North knows it that is why the are urging you to contest |
Re: 2023: Only South-West, South-East Disagreement Can Keep Power In North – Ahamba by Nobody: 8:49am On Sep 18, 2019 |
Chukapage: I dont think you understand, Nowhere have I said a SW will become president, Nowhere have I said I want a SW president or care if one becomes president, please read again. What I have said is that SE will NEVER produce a president of Nigeria. Because I talk about the SE does not mean I am pro SW. I am simply making my observations that the SE have become unelectable as president of this country. |
Re: 2023: Only South-West, South-East Disagreement Can Keep Power In North – Ahamba by Chukapage(m): 8:51am On Sep 18, 2019 |
seunmsg:lol na so like I said 2023 will be reverse of 2015 if you think that a Northerner will vote a Southerner over a Northerner think again! Look at what atiku did to Buhari , he gave him some tough time not to talk of 2023 when the "Buhari effect" is gone ,Una go shock again if you think Northerners will vote a Southerner over a Northerner think again! You South westerners who are planning on 2023 banking on Northern votes should better start now and restrategize because if your banking on Northern votes una go shock El rufai and other Northerner s don dey tell una the truth with style una no go hear better go and plan well now there is time oo |
Re: 2023: Only South-West, South-East Disagreement Can Keep Power In North – Ahamba by Chukapage(m): 8:59am On Sep 18, 2019 |
isthatso:lol oga chill you are not God you hear? Who believed a mere ex Deputy Governor like Good luck Jonathan will be president? You are not God! Bro drink water ! The one I am sure is 2023 the West will understand politics that's the game unless Apc fields a Northerner. Again my guy you are not God . |
Re: 2023: Only South-West, South-East Disagreement Can Keep Power In North – Ahamba by Chukapage(m): 9:07am On Sep 18, 2019 |
sogodihno:lol e pain am ! And for the records it's now 3% ooo make you know 2023 is 2015 in reverse let South West come and collect president na |
Re: 2023: Only South-West, South-East Disagreement Can Keep Power In North – Ahamba by Chukapage(m): 9:11am On Sep 18, 2019 |
KidsNEXTdoor:lol the sarcasm thougu Dem go shock! |
Re: 2023: Only South-West, South-East Disagreement Can Keep Power In North – Ahamba by Nobody: 9:18am On Sep 18, 2019 |
Chukapage: SS is a neutral region, they can and will produce another president be fore the SE, if Nigeria still remains one country. The North also saw what happened with Jonathan. I am not God, I am just good at interpreting things without sentiment. The SE have no support for the presidency outside the SE and they dont have the numbers. I would go as far as to say there is no region in Nigeria that the rest of the country is so opposed to seeing in the presidency like the SE. The SE don't know how to play politics. Even the SW that were tradionallly the worst group have learnt. They dont know how to lose gracefully without heating up the polity and stinking up the place which has not endeared them and done more damage than good to their cause, dont forget the SE also have legacy issues from the civil war and now they have antagonized the SW. |
Re: 2023: Only South-West, South-East Disagreement Can Keep Power In North – Ahamba by Chukapage(m): 9:21am On Sep 18, 2019 |
isthatso:lol dream on see as he is tactically trying to patronize SS lol una go shock ! North divided? Lol again if you think Northerners will be stupid like you lots that Supported A NORTHERNER over a Southerner think again! Shey El rufai don tell una lmao North divided ko dividend ni one Northern candidate go shock una ! Your people should better plan 2023 now because once the Buhari effect is gone The North will massively vote a Northerner candidate and YOU KNOW IT! Even atiku with Peter Obi as vice really gave Buhari a tough time even in the North sef . Keep consoling yourselves one moment the whole Eastern Region that supported Jonathan are 5% the next moment "only south south vote is relevant" dey deceive yourself ooo |
Re: 2023: Only South-West, South-East Disagreement Can Keep Power In North – Ahamba by Nobody: 9:28am On Sep 18, 2019 |
Chukapage: your problem you are speaking out of sentiment. it is the problem with a lot of your brothers. Either sentiment or failure of understanding. An irrelevant vote can be 1) a vote that is insignificant or 2) a vote that will not change In the case of the SE, the Se is irrelevant because Se will never vote for APC, they will always vote for PDP, so they are irrelevant to BOTH APC and PDP, you dont waste your resources on someone who will never change his mind, you dont waste your resources on someone who will never vote for your opponent and you dont waste your resources on someone who will never vote for you ...THAT in political definition of IRRELEVANT! and the mistake Atiku made in 2019. He had nothing to gain by courting the SE because they are always going to vote PDP. He wasted his VP slot on the SE. He even got less votes from Anambra in 2019 than PDp got in 2015. The North and SW are the 2 most relevant zones in the Nigerian political equation because they are the only ones who change their votes. |
(1) (2) (3) ... (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (Reply)
Nigerian Arrested For Trafficking Over 350 Million Naira Cocaine In Mumbai India / Make Rich Nigerians Explain Source Of Wealth Or Forfeit It To Government; Ndume / Beaten By Soldiers At Okene For Trying To Video Them
(Go Up)
Sections: politics (1) business autos (1) jobs (1) career education (1) romance computers phones travel sports fashion health religion celebs tv-movies music-radio literature webmasters programming techmarket Links: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) Nairaland - Copyright © 2005 - 2024 Oluwaseun Osewa. All rights reserved. See How To Advertise. 150 |