PETERiCHY:


They CLAIMED to purchased 75% stake at a whopping N66 per share from Ote$ where as in another newspaper publication they were pleading with their shellholders not to sell at subN20.

Last wk they saw their yeye stock was trading at N14 jejely heading to it N6 fairvalue the same set of crooks had emergency meeting and QUICKLY came up with another story of purchasing at N62 and some gullibles are jumping up

Most Nigerian CEO's are nothing but CROOKS,
I only WEEP for uninformed investors

I would really loved you go for the forthcoming agm....... I would love the perspective of an affamed critic at the agn

I have received several mails in the last 2 days asking for my take on the recent proposed MTO to the current shareholders of FO by Ignite Inv & Commodities Ltd.

This analysis is intended to highlight the key area of FOCUS with regards to the said offer.

A brief;

Company- Forte Oil(FO)
Current OS- 1,310,629,1267
Current shareholding structure:
Ignite Inv- 970,166, 694(equ 74.02%)
Other stakeholders- 340,462,573(equ 25.98%)

MTO proposal; "that Ignite inv & commodities Ltd offers to take up a total of 500,000 units of FO from willing existing shareholders @ a per equity price of N66.25, and increase its stake from the current 74.02% to 74.04%... a 0.02% vol differential.

1st off, here are a few points to note:

1) The MTO has been authorised and registered by the CMOs including the SEC.

2) Only demateralized(electronic format) shares of FO held via a stockbroker are acceptable.

3) The notice did NOT state a QUALIFICATION DATE.
The implication of this is that until the deal is consumeted(assuming a person does not exercise their right to withdrawal) every current or prospective shareholder of FO is ELIGIBLE to partake of it !!
NOTE that consummation in this case means post deposition(of shares) and until 10 working days after then.

4) Interested applicants must fill out an acceptance form duly stamped and signed by their respective brokers, and attach their most recent CSCS statement of A/C, before sending same to the registrar(VERITAS)

5) The offer price is exempt of CGT(capital gain tax)
...so by inference, the MTO of N66.25 is net of WHT. It is non-taxable !!

6) Ignite Inv reserves the sole right to possibly extend the offer period if it becomes necessary.

7) Ignite Inv shall offer to buy out only 500,000 units of FO @ N66.25 and pay out a total cash consideration of N33,125,000 to the various bank A/C of willing shareholders who deposited their stakes with the registrar(via their broker) before the closure time and whose acceptance forms were duly consummated.

8] In the event of an over-subscription, Ignite inv shall imploy a simple mathematical method of scaling back(such excesses) using the company's(FO) OS net of its original holding as a benchmark.

To illustrate;

Assuming a shareholder owns 20,000 unit of FO, and decides to tender all of it in exchange for the offer value of N66.25.
The offer shall either be fully or partly consummated.
Now assuming that only 15,000 was accepted(following full subscription), then;
Using the company's total OS net of Ignite Inv stake, the excess shall be scaled back to determine what PROPORTION/vol(in units) Ingite inv would further dim fit to take up.
Mathematically, the portion to take up from the excess(5,000 unit in this case) shall be computed as follows;
Total No of shares tenderd for the MTO by the said shareholder/total No of shares tenderd for the MTO by ALL eligible shareholders X actual vol of MTO.
= 5,000/ 340,462,573 X 500,000
Which is approx 7 unit.

Note that the total No of shares tenderd for the MTO by ALL eligible shareholders is assumed to be the total stake of FO held by others aside Ignite. The simple reason is because it makes common sense to believe that everyone(or at least 90% of current holders) will most likely apply for the MTO given the huge premium from the coys current mkt price.

The interpretation of the estimate above is that in the event of an over-subscription, an excess of 5,000 'un-alloted' unit will likely see Ignite Inv take up only 7 unit therein, Ceteris paribus.
Hence for every 1 excess unit, Ignite shall only probably take up an additional 7/5,000 or 0.0014 unit.
Similarly, for every Y excess unit post full subscription, Ignite Inv might take up a 0.0014Y portion of it after all due consideration.


My analytical take:

Looking @ FO Oils H1 2019 financial print, the coy saw an outstanding improvement accross all KEY revenue and earnings line.
Amongst the drivers, were positive margins that cut accross the coys top line, bottom line and cashflow trend.
To narrow it down, GROSS MARGIN, NET MARGIN, PAT MARGIN, RoIC, ROAA, ROAE, EPS and EM all showed a fine improvement. ...with the latter 2 showing a remarkable double digit growth.
Like i've stated in the past, one of the things that impresses me about FO is the lower risk now associated with what used to be a 'earnings devourer'(NCI).
...meaning that the core of distributable earnings can now get to those who truly deserve it(shareholders)
Again the coys RoIC, ENTERPRISE VALUE, RE, CASH POSITION, AsY and AsQ describes a stock with a grossly underpriced stance.
Using a DDM approach(@ an assumed 0% growth to YE) and adjusting for risk, I have a FVE of N43.7 !!

Maybe, just maybe that's why the folks @ Ignite could afford to offer an MTO to existing shareholders @ N66.25.
...a cash consideration which is an over 300% potential ROI from the present mkt price of N16.45 !!

I am however curious on why the current mkt price still pegs 'a far cry'(MoS gap) from the coys present financial state.
That said, one thing is indisputable: With or WITHOUT the proposed MTO, buying FO now can ONLY mean buying into VALUE !!

My advice: Pls kindly follow ur instinct.

No Nigerian Bank Matches Our Financial Inclusion Strategy—First Bank
https://businesspost.ng/2019/08/30/no-nigerian-bank-matches-our-financial-inclusion-strategy-first-bank/

PETERiCHY:


They CLAIMED to purchased 75% stake at a whopping N66 per share from Ote$ where as in another newspaper publication they were pleading with their shellholders not to sell at subN20.

Last wk they saw their yeye stock was trading at N14 jejely heading to it N6 fairvalue the same set of crooks had emergency meeting and QUICKLY came up with another story of purchasing at N66 and some gullibles are jumping up

Most Nigerian CEO's are nothing but CROOKS,
I only WEEP for uninformed investors

Na waa oooo

PETERiCHY:


They CLAIMED to purchased 75% stake at a whopping N66 per share from Ote$ where as in another newspaper publication they were pleading with their shellholders not to sell at subN20.

Last wk they saw their yeye stock was trading at N14 jejely heading to it N6 fairvalue the same set of crooks had emergency meeting and QUICKLY came up with another story of purchasing at N62 and some gullibles are jumping up

Most Nigerian CEO's are nothing but CROOKS,
I only WEEP for uninformed investors

Exactly, such juicy offer was coming and stockbrokers did not mop up FO shares on the floor...and allowed me and you to keep buying.

The stocks that had good deal how many units did me and you see to buy?

Everyday people will carry the can! Enough said.

Many people rush into the game of investing thinking they are predators. When they get to the middle of the game, they then realize they are the prey and try to escape but it will be too late. Only the preys with a well defined exit strategy will escape, the rest will be slaughtered by the real predators. – Ajaero Tony Martins

Access to release result on 15th September. This is not fair at all.

hello everyone.

please excuse me, I want to know if stocks can be shorted that is, if a trader can go bearish on a stock in the Nigeria Stock Exchange.

it is not that the result will be bad oooo

Mpeace:
Access to release result on 15th September. This is not fair at all.

stcool:
They bought from Ote$ at N66 and after then price continued to nosedive. They will do anything to save the price.

I just avoid such stocks... With NSE I am not in a hurry!

My pain is if on Monday they rush out of FO, they will now come and bid UBA higher for me.

I just wanted to continue accumulating UBA below N6 until yr end.

A few question actually needs to be answered
Why would you want to sell your business at about the time it starts churning out good profits (Am sure Ote$ cant say he doesn't have an idea what the H1 outlook would be-He was still there when this astounding improvements were made),if he had left when things were really bad,it would have been understandable,Abi how monkey go dey work,baboon go come chop.
Something just doesn't seem right.
Just like someone said, i see tigerbrand/dangflour scenario come to play
Milost we know,prudent energy who una be

Valueinvestor:
Many people rush into the game of investing thinking they are predators. When they get to the middle of the game, they then realize they are the prey and try to escape but it will be too late. Only the preys with a well defined exit strategy will escape, the rest will be slaughtered by the real predators. – Ajaero Tony Martins

May I know Your Opinion on Zenith & FBNH at present price . both dividend and price appreciation .
Thanks in Anticipation
Witches .

[quote author=stcool post=81766820]

Exactly, such juicy offer was coming and stockbrokers did not mop up FO shares on the floor...and allowed me and you to keep buying.

The stocks that had good deal how many units did me and you see to buy?



The continued dwindling in the fortunes of shares of a once vibrant energy company, Forte Oil Plc, is giving its holders something to seriously worry about.

Last month, billionaire Nigerian businessman, Mr Femi Otedola, announced his exit from the firm after offloading his 75 percent stake to focus on another business venture, Geregu Power..
After his exit from the firm, there was a change in almost the entire management team of Forte Oil.

But since this announcement on Wednesday, June 19, 2019, Business Post observed that Forte Oil shares have lost 40.26 percent at the stock market.

When Mr Otedola left Forte Oil last month, shares of the company were traded at the nation’s stock exchange at N34.65k per unit.

However, at the close of business on Friday, July 12, 2019, they were transacted at N20.70k each, indicating a decline of 40.26 percent or N13.95k.

This huge fall in less than a month is already making some shareholders of the firm to begin to doubt the future of the company.

They wondered why things have been on a free-fall since the departure of Mr Otedola, with insinuations that the businessman might have seen this coming and decided to speak to his legs.

“Don’t think the board and management are doing nothing to make things better because this is their main agenda for now. You will begin to see positive changes.

https://businesspost.ng/2019/07/14/worry-as-forte-oil-loses-40-26-barely-a-month-after-otedolas-exit/amp/


Since FORTE OIL is now the best thing after SLICE BREAD and IGNITES INVESTMENTS want to increase their stalk by 500000units @N66

WHY don't they use their IMAGINARY N33m to buy from the flloor which in turn will PROP-UP the share price and help some of their CAPTIVES bail OUT rather they CHOSE to make a PUBLIC ANNOUNCEMENT of buying a patry 500K @ N66 so they can be able to TAKE more CAPTIVES to GOLGOTHA.


BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

On this FO thing, everybody should follow his/her mind. After all, FO and most stocks on NSE, if not all stocks on NSE, have been on the down trend for the past 3 months.

rebekah2011:
It will take a minimum of 3 weeks for the results to be approved by CBN.

What happened, it didn't take minimum of 3 weeks again?, no man/woman knows it all. What someone don't know is bigger than him/her.
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/27462_U_B_A_PLC_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_AUGUST_2019.pdf

Witches:





May I know Your Opinion on Zenith & FBNH at present price . both dividend and price appreciation .
Thanks in Anticipation
Witches .

In terms of dividend yield of course zenith bank is better, but when fbnh decides to do its thing in terms of capital appreciation,zenith bank cannot even come near it,(fbnh has a better potential of doubling its share price in the nearest future once they get it right),however having the 2 in your portfolio would not be a bad idea(ratio 3:2),diversification is key.
Buying either of the 2 at current price would still be a good bargain,but remember, never buy with a single order,always spread your purchases(time is your friend) in order to get a reasonable average price.

I only bought FO based on their q2 2019...and not because management offer

So far so good, UBA, fidelity, FCMB, Zenith bank has release wonderful result. Month of September seems to be the month of bear, that's the months of opportunity to look and buy cheaper price to increase ones number of shares. One can Easily sell during the first week been next week, and wait for a little while and buy back from the same company, this time with higher unit to compare with what he sold.

Zenith from 19.40 this week back to #17, and might see #16 soon. FCMB visited 1.50 today, might test back 1.40, these companies has wonderful result, but what is happened is just the the stocks routine.

PETERiCHY:


They CLAIMED to purchased 75% stake at a whopping N66 per share from Ote$ where as in another newspaper publication they were pleading with their shellholders not to sell at subN20.

Last wk they saw their yeye stock was trading at N14 jejely heading to it N6 fairvalue the same set of crooks had emergency meeting and QUICKLY came up with another story of purchasing at N62 and some gullibles are jumping up

Most Nigerian CEO's are nothing but CROOKS,
I only WEEP for uninformed investors

Lol @ some gullibles are jumping up..
dem try for the 500k Units slf as nse no tell dem the number of units dem supposed to buy na..lol jokers ..

Eku FO

stcool:
They bought from Ote$ at N66 and after then price continued to nosedive. They will do anything to save the price.
I just avoid such stocks... With NSE I am not in a hurry!
My pain is if on Monday they rush out of FO, they will now come and bid UBA higher for me.
I just wanted to continue accumulating UBA below N6 until yr end.

Human being sha, u enter uba today around 5.90 and Uba turn to best stock in d mkt, uba that pple loaded at 5.45 quietly two week ago.
U bought Uba today and u want pple to short FO and use proceed to bid uba higher for u.
Current FO offer @66 is fake, not real is monkey hunting and so on. We are here and we knew how u keep posting day and night of good things when OLAT offer to buy Dangote flour at 24. when price was around 11 simply cos u owns the share. I saw that offer too na but I can not buy such company cos number does not look attractive to me base on my own strategy but that doesn't mean I will come out bad mouthing it for pple. Have u even check FO H1 at all?
Anyway this ur rant can not shake pple like me.
Oga Pluto have say it all and thatz my stand as well


vv
V

pluto09:



I don't disturb myself with all those little little things.
I have my reasons for taking position.
If it goes positive, all well and good and if it turns out the other way I know what to do......

If you are buying any of the FUGAZ ! Read this!
Run before dividend qualify date because people wey you dey follow go buy will do exactly that before letting you know..

You’ll just see post like “I don collect my own dividend on nse”

Lol

currentprice:


Human being sha, u enter uba today around 5.90 and Uba turn to best stock in d mkt, uba that pple loaded at 5.45 quietly two week ago.
U bought Uba today and u want pple to short FO and use proceed to bid uba higher for u.
Current FO offer @66 is fake, not real is monkey hunting and so on. We are here and we knew how u keep posting day and night of good things when OLAT offer to buy Dangote flour at 24. when price was around 11 simply cos u owns the share. I saw that offer too na but I can not buy such company cos number does not look attractive to me base on my own strategy but that doesn't mean I will come out bad mouthing it for pple. Have u even check FO H1 at all?
Anyway this ur rant can not shake pple like me.
Oga Pluto have say it all and thatz my stand as well


vv
V

quote author=pluto09 post=81763545]


I don't disturb myself with all those little little things.
I have my reasons for taking position.
If it goes positive, all well and good and if it turns out the other way I know what

thank you my brother..tell them, I don't know why people won't take time and study FO q2 2019 result..for me I'm buying any FO under #20 it's only time that will tell..remain blessed my bros

Mpeace:
Access to release result on 15th September. This is not fair at all.

They are still cooking their result. They want to always stay ahead of UBA, but UBA seems to be better than them. SEC should come with a new rule, that every company must pay 50% of their earning, with that cooking practice will reduce.

Morgan Capital see 66 naira dey send out forms LOLZ
I hope they’ll not block you from selling on the floor while 66 form will be pending forever

stcool:
They bought from Ote$ at N66 and after then price continued to nosedive. They will do anything to save the price.

I just avoid such stocks... With NSE I am not in a hurry!

My pain is if on Monday they rush out of FO, they will now come and bid UBA higher for me.

I just wanted to continue accumulating UBA below N6 until yr end.

You have an eagle eyes, no matter what hold on to your strategy. Dangote flour you discovered their way are doing good. Cham strategy is on going, UBA at anything below 6 is bonanza offer.

TraDeRR:
Morgan Capital see 66 naira dey send out forms LOLZ
I hope they’ll not block you from selling on the floor while 66 form will be pending forever

me I know get power to argue again. I will just be watching and keep loading UBA.

When I enter a stock I make it open..same way I said about DF and even took a loan to accumulate more I announced it here.

My joy will be more on Monday if UBA can hit N5.40 and below next week let me add more units.

Let time tell. Good luck to all.

stcool:


me I know get power to argue again. I will just be watching and keep loading UBA.

When I enter a stock I make it open..same way I said about DF and even took a loan to accumulate more I announced it here.

My joy will be more on Monday if UBA can hit N5.40 and below next week let me add more units.

Let time tell. Good luck to all.

How was the DF loot enjoyment ?

TraDeRR:


How was the DF loot enjoyment ?

All glory to God!

My portfolio is now mainly...
CHAMS
FIDELITY
UBA

Chibuking81:

They are still cooking their result. They want to always stay ahead of UBA, but UBA seems to be better than them. SEC should come with a new rule, that every company must pay 50% of their earning, with that cooking practice will reduce.

If SEC brings up that rule, the bull that will follow NSE would not have part2.

Mpeace:
If SEC brings up that rule, the bull that will follow NSE would not have part2.

That's actually when the real bear will surface because they will now present their true financial statements.

veecovee:


Bought some to today before I came across this info, I even called Ogochukwu and she authenticated the information. I feel like picking more on monday

Do not buy FO until AFTER it closes a week above 18.00

Once "good news" in the financial market is made public, DON'T FALL FOR IT!

More often than not, it would be a trap.

stcool:


All glory to God!

My portfolio is now mainly...
CHAMS
FIDELITY
UBA

I wish i have this kind of mind