ihedioramma:
The big investors can never buy MTN shares . Just look for today what it will lost . befor month/year end the stock may sell below #40 so keep on buying .

Lol, So it is small investors that will buy a stock for N145?

You probably don't know that MTN movement affects the NGSE INDEX.

Agbalowomeri:


I read this post before looking at the moniker
Then I said okay na this guy, it is allowed

Am not a guy o i will ban you . But yes is only yahoo yahoo e.t.c can buy MTN now .

TARGET PROFIT FORECAST FOR ACCESS BANK - POSTED 1ST AUG 2019

Our forecast saw the big jump in profit coming long ago.

We are in picture of the 3rd quarter results for most major companies by now!!!

You can check and judge yourself.

MSCI did very little transaction yesterday.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget

OBAGADAFFI:

Lol, So it is small investors that will buy a stock for N145?
You probably don't know that MTN movement affects the NGSE INDEX.

you do, keep on buying .

Agbalowomeri:


I read this post before looking at the moniker
Then I said okay na this guy, it is allowed

Why na??

ihedioramma:
Am not a guy o i will ban you . But yes is only yahoo yahoo e.t.c can buy MTN now .

. Please, ban him. He is from south africa.

ihedioramma:
you do, keep on buying .

Sidon dey shout Xenophobic .....

You think Mr Dozie will offload hi MTN shares overnight ?

Businessmen from both countries are doing their bussee and taking profits.

It looks like WHT was not deducted from FLOURMILLS dividend payment.
...good one from the coy !!

On a side note, imagine the desperation to KEY into UACN now.
...so shall it be with CAVERTON, AIICO and TRANSCORP when their days of reckoning comes.
I can't say more.

swilo:

. Please, ban him. He is from south africa.

one love .

ihedioramma:
one love .

How the other thread dey go?

Sometime in 2017 there was a HEAVY CROSS DEAL worth BILLIONS of Naira on FBHN @N4:00k

So BARGAINS HUNTERS you can taking a look at current @N4:40K.

*ThE OcToPuS*

OBAGADAFFI:


Sidon dey shout Xenophobic .....

You think Mr Dozie will offload hi MTN shares overnight ?

Businessmen from both countries are doing their bussee and taking profits.

Who he wan sell to now? Nigerian's e.t.c are not buying . MB or CARD we are not buying .

It must have been paid from pioneer profits

onegentleguy:
It looks like WHT was not deducted from FLOURMILLS dividend payment.
...good one from the coy !!

On a side note, imagine the desperation to KEY into UACN now.
...so shall it be with CAVERTON, AIICO and TRANSCORP when their days of reckoning comes.
I can't say more.

PETERiCHY:
Sometime in 2017 there was a HEAVY CROSS DEAL worth BILLIONS of Naira on FBHN @N4:00k

So BARGAINS HUNTERS you can taking a look at current @N4:40K.

*ThE OcToPuS*

Lol na because u don buy? We dey wait for N3 or no deal

[quote author=CashDiMkpa post=81976602]
How the other thread dey go? [/quote You need ban ?

austinkenneth:

Please house, what's your take on Caverton? I've been sitting on losses for some time now on that one. I got in at a high (2.95).

This what happens what one is an ardent follower of the BUY BUY APOSTLES

The pics below depicts the way Nigerian CEO's has been treacherously dealing with their SHAREHOLDERS

rebekah2011:
It must have been paid from pioneer profits

I thought as much !!

Agbalowomeri:


Lol na because u don buy? We dey wait for N3 or no deal

N2 sef. Bank that is looking to invest heavily on Business Intelligence, it means something is not going right at the moment.

PETERiCHY:
Sometime in 2017 there was a HEAVY CROSS DEAL worth BILLIONS of Naira on FBHN @N4:00k

So BARGAINS HUNTERS you can taking a look at current @N4:40K.

*ThE OcToPuS*

I have been buying this one, little by little since N5.
They are expected to return to single digit NPL ratio. That would definitely reduce Impairment losses and thus increase PAT and dividend payout.
I want to do this stock long term.

I invest on HOPE Analysis as always.

Heishere:


N2 sef. Bank that is looking to invest heavily on Business Intelligence, it means something is not going right at the moment.

So you know all this and still allow FO sold MONKEY to you in place of BABOON

EKUU mkt o

onegentleguy:
With the just released H1 2019 result from ACCESS BANK(which majorly inculcated the risk-adjusted impact of asset deterioration from the merger with diamond), it will be BEST to seriously consider having ACCESS in ones investment portfolio now.(if u are yet to do that)

At 1st glance, the H1 financial print shows an all-touching boost accross all revenue and earnings line with a pointer to margins growing at a faster rate than EM at the back of an improving AsQ and AsY.

One thing that impresses me, is the current ACCRUALS RATIO(an analytical tool that aims to gauge the persistence and sustainability of a coys earnings setting aside the risk of a possible manipulation). ...which is especially useful for companies that have just expanded, following from an organic/inorganic growth or have merged/acquired an asset with a perceived low quality.
With ACCESS, current accruals ratio(both from a cashflow and balance sheet perspective) is HEALTHY.

Other KEY financial indicators also paints of a grossly underpriced asset.
Raking off all feasible risk and assuming zero growth to YE, I have a FVE of N15.7 for ACCESS. ...and quite frankly, that would be me been extremely cautious with valuation.

The same can also be said of fellow 1st tier peers, UBA and ZENITH. ...and tier 2 fellows FCMB and FIDELITY.

CAVEAT: This is no license to any sought of recommendation. ...due diligence should still remain ur 1st priority.
My advise: Pls kindly follow ur instinct.

Thank you, God, for picking my call.
Thanks OGG

onegentleguy:
The past few days has seen me receive a handful of mails over the 2018 FP of FIRST BANK. ...with quite a few of those asking of my opinion on whether its a good buy.
Well, without giving a clear cut answer to that, I'd prefer to highlight a few noticeable worries and allow folks 'to have the last word' with their decision-making.

A brief:

-The bank made a huge loan write-off of over 180B, yet saw its NPL expand above 1350bps from approx 22.5% in 2017 to near 26% in 2018. ...this is not a good sign.
With key loans in its book including a 24B exposure to etisalat, and over 4.5x that amount to Atlantic energy, a near 41% of the total write-off figure can not be accounted for within the spheres of its published result. ...now that calls for some serious concern.
Again, I am worried about the banks qualifying capital in proportion to its loan. With CAR contracting by well over 270bps to ~17.2% despite the forbearance from the CBN over the full implementation of IFRS 9 in that line.
...but for that forbearance, CAR as at FY 2018 would've printed far lower(a deceleration of near 400bps to ~10.6%) from the banks 2017 print. ...a figure, so NOT befitting of the banks international status.
The interpretation of this is that 1st banks risk asset measured against its loan remains clearly UNHEALTHY.
The banks RE position also cast some measure of doubt over its ability to maintain or up its current low dividend pay out in the mid term, following an over 97% drop from near 170B in 2017 to just 4.4B in 2018. ...this is even more so given that the banks statutory reserve also declined by near 43B, feeling the heat from the new guide on reporting standard.
-On the profitability front, earnings from running the bank(operating income) actually went down YoY(by ~700bps) and QoQ(~250bps) behind an over 14% cut down in deriavable/net interest income. ...with PAT MARGIN mainly driven by an over 40% YoY or approx 54% QoQ drop in loan loss provision.
Discount that, and u'll see that the bank was only able to deliver a meagre ~24k deriavable earnings(EPS) to its shareholders in Q4 2018.
- Elsewhere, a combination of a higher interest expense and increased CoF(cost of fund) @~881bps and 340bps respectively, on the back of a ~750bps YoY drop in interest income line, ensured that the banks asset quality and yield contracted. ...with the latter pressured down by over 11%.
I am also less impressed with the print accross its key revenue and earnings line. ...particularly their ROAE, ROAA, EBITDA MARGIN, REVENUE MARGIN and EM.
Sure there are a few positives. But these cons are not to be taken lightly.

My verdict: The bank is still struggling with a combination of weak and bad assets which has ensured a strongly difficult route for a clear growth trajectory.
...with efficiency ratios suggestive of a less than impressive performance in both their loan driven front and that of their investment channels.
FIRST BANK should have a place in the portfolio of only those with long term investment horizon. ...but clearly not dividend growth investors.
That said, the estimated beta value of the bank @ well above unity(1) and the industrial average shows that sentiment is still tilted on the side of a healthy patronage(vol).
In contrast though, it does appear that the 'belief system' on the part of investors has been quite weak. This is even more true considering that the coys equity price has stayed solidly below its 50 sma in the short-mid term, while its 200 sma prints even much higher. ...referencing a clear reservation on the part of retail investors and an indifferent/weak romance/belief on the part of FMs, FPIs and DPIs.
With FBNH therefore, caution should be the watch word !!

From where am standing, its relative 1st tier peers, UBA and ACCESS @ current mkt prices presents a clearer and greater MoS deriavable value to tap from, and so remains better options ahead of 1st bank.

NOTE: This piece is strictly on the premise to aide with striking the RIGHT balance between the pros and cons of 1st banks 2018 FP. ...It should therefore not be infered as any sought of recommendation.

My advise: Pls follow ur instinct.

Heishere:


N2 sef. Bank that is looking to invest heavily on Business Intelligence, it means something is not going right at the moment.

People were cautioned about the possible value trap in FBNH long before now. ...at the time the stock was still selling for near N7.
Yes, it is gradually coming down(in price) to a good value zone. However, when u benchmark the coys risk-return to that within the circle of its 1st tier peers(ZENITH, ACCESS, UBA, and GTB), u would see that the stock is still a bit expensive(MoS with ROI in view) compared to others.
The interpretation of this is that it is still better to choose from among its peers(particularly the 1st 3) ahead of FBNH given their current prices.
This is in view of a possible MoS for both dividend cashflow return and capital appreciation.

Folks will recall the post above.
The rest is history.

FBNH has not been truthful with its shareholders. Access that just took over Diamond bank has recovered over 13b in bad debts. First has written off over 400b and yet to make any significant recoveries. You would have done well being in UBA or Access Bank sef.

Mpeace:
I have been buying this one, little by little since N5.
They are expected to return to single digit NPL ratio. That would definitely reduce Impairment losses and thus increase PAT and dividend payout.
I want to do this stock long term.

I invest on HOPE Analysis as always.

PETERiCHY:


So you know all this and still allow FO sold MONKEY to you in place of BABOON

The two are different na. For FO, there are hidden bunches of banana that can turn the monkey to baboon

onegentleguy:



People were cautioned about the possible value trap in FBNH long before now. ...at the time the stock was still selling for near N7.
Yes, it is gradually coming down(in price) to a good value zone. However, when u benchmark the coys risk-return to that within the circle of its 1st tier peers(ZENITH, ACCESS, UBA, and GTB), u would see that the stock is still a bit expensive(MoS margin with ROI in view) compared to others.
The interpretation of this is that it is still better to choose its peers (particularly the 1st 3) ahead of FBNH given their current prices.
This is in view of a possible MoS from both dividend cashflow return and capital appreciation.

Folks will recall the post above.
The rest is history.

OGG, You are doing a great work here sir. Your analysis for me are always spot on. Infact they are part of my daily reads and reference points. I will buy you a mansion when I make a billion in this market

rebekah2011:
FBNH has not been truthful with its shareholders. Access that just took over Diamond bank has recovered over 13b in bad debts. First has written off over 400b and yet to make any significant recoveries. You would have done well being in UBA or Access Bank sef.

I am fully in Access, having had my converted diamond bank shares credited to my account.
I just need to take some more calculated risk.
UBA is good but I somehow luv the size of FBNH prior to the whole NPL crisis, and I believe they can return to that size and even compete with the likes of Zenith bank in terms of profitability.
The elephant is sick, but there are signs of recovery lets just hope it doesn't experience a relapse and sudden death

Heishere:


OGG, You are doing a great work here sir. Your analysis for me are always spot on. Infact they are part of my daily reads and reference points. I will buy you a mansion when I make a billion in this market

...I am humbled Sir !!
Thank u.

Hope will not send you back to the village Sir. The managers of the Elephant are just after their own well being. Other banks have moved on Sir. It will take a whole lot of hard work for First Bank to catch up with others in terms of profitability.

Mpeace:
I am fully in Access, having had my converted diamond bank shares credited to my account.
I just need to take some more calculated risk.
UBA is good but I somehow luv the size of FBNH prior to the whole NPL crisis, and I believe they can return to that size and even compete with the likes of Zenith bank in terms of profitability.
The elephant is sick, but there are signs of recovery lets just hope it doesn't experience a relapse and sudden death

chillykelly86:


Thank you, God, for picking my call.
Thanks OGG

Oh... dont mention my dear !!
We are all here to help push each other up the lather of success.

Regards.

onegentleguy:
It looks like WHT was not deducted from FLOURMILLS dividend payment.
...good one from the coy !!

On a side note, imagine the desperation to KEY into UACN now.
...so shall it be with CAVERTON, AIICO and TRANSCORP when their days of reckoning comes.
I can't say more.

The only stock here I still am trying to comprehend is Aiico. The other two are still battling with the law of gravity. Once I observe the loss of interest in both stocks, I will top up. Same for wema... @50k, I will also key in and just wait for my 80% non negotiable.

I will appreciate a word on Afriprud, eterna and cutix.

Thanks.