BullBearMkt:
Will Guaranty Trust Bank Re-test 26.80 Support Level?
From creating a higher-high, the stock price is now heavily declining and there is high probability of the stock re-testing between 26.50 and 26.80 before making any upward reversal attempt.

chart: https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/GUARANTY/ZsgJkD0v-Will-Guaranty-Trust-Bank-Re-test-26-80-Support-Level/

PLAN YOUR TRADES AND TRADE YOUR PLANS

Hmmmm........My oga,So zenith will still retest 16 again and ASI below 27?

In this period we are expecting small bull

locodemy:



Hmmmm........My oga,So zenith will still retest 16 again and ASI below 27?

In this period we are expecting small bull

...the bears have been around for long and before bulls can finally dominate, they have to fight a good fight of dominance. For now I cannot see Zennith re-testing 16 sha, 17 ish is good to go

onegentleguy:
There has been a reoccurance of mergers/aquisation or takeover/buyout and follow-up delisting of some quoted companies on the NSE bourse.
Over the yrs, the likes of NBC, BAGCO, IHS, CAPPA & D'ALBERTO, OASIS INSURANCE, CRUSADER INSURANCE, 7-UP, ASHAKA CEMENT, AVON CROWN CAPS, DIAMOND BANK, NEWREST ASL, DANGOTE FLOUR, CONTINENTAL RE, 1ST ALUMINIUM and most recently AG LEVENTIS to mention just a few, have either undergone a merger, aquisation or takeover/buyout. ...with the last 6 all brokered in less than a year !!
However, I think we might see a few more in the not-so-distant future.

Given the current position of their financial print(balance sheet position in view) in relation to their present equity prices, the following coys could be future candidates for a merger, aquisation or take over/buy out:

NEIMETH PHARMACEUTICALS, CHAMS, FO, GLAXOSMITHKLINE NIG, COURTVILLE, TRANEX(trans-nationwide express), UNIONDAC and BERGER PAINTS PLC.

Why?

1st off, is to ascertain if there are doubts surrounding the survival of these companies, so one doesn't lose their money taking(early) positions in them. And next, is to look in on their current earnings capacity, then gauge its relative sustainability over time.

On that line, keeping a tag on their OHLSONS O-SCORE(a key financial tool used to forecast if a company could go bankrupt), I see them remaining as a going concern. ...which makes them attractive candidates for 'external forces'(investors) who could bid to take them on at a cheap and turn them around.

...and using the EPP(earnings persistence approach: a valuation technique used to predict how often the earnings return of a coy will likely continue to reoccur over time after raking-off risk), I see a higher probability that any take over/buy out(should they occur) will be priced @ great premiums to their current market prices.
With some, at potential premiums of near 105% ROI !!

I particularly like the 1st 5.

On a side note, a few coys in the financial services sector, particularly the INSURANCE segment 'could also be up for grabs'... so watch that space !!

CAVEAT: This piece is only intended to look at quoted coys with chances of a merger, aquisation or takeover/buy out.
...it is NO licence to any sought of recommendation !!

My advise: Always do well to follow ur instinct.

For me, the only junk stock(aka carcass) I want to invest more money in, is transcorp. Something tells me they will soon be in the news. For good or bad. If for bad, then its positive bad.

Mpeace:
For me, the only junk stock(aka carcass) I want to invest more money in, is transcorp. Something tells me they will soon be in the news. For good or bad. If for bad, then its positive bad.

Please, since its Piotroski F score is ok, you can only test your assumptions with the Altman Z score or better still the Ohlsons O score.

Caveat: I am still computing the scores anyway.

Happy Sunday....

UNDERSTANDING HOW VOLUME IS RECORDED ON EXCHANGES

Greetings everyone,
here is a little post to help some people understand the logic behind my volume adjusted price (VAP) technique.
Imagine you are a bitcoin exchanger and had four transactions yesterday as follows:

1. Sold $2,000 worth of bitcoin
2. Bought $300 worth of bitcoin
3. Sold $1,000 worth of bitcoin
4. Bought $100 with of bitcoin

What is the EFFECTIVE (or NET) buy/sell volume done?
Buy transactions = $300 + $100 = $400
Sell transactions = $2,000 + $1,000 = $3,000
Net transaction = $3,000 - $400 = $2,600 (sell side)

The effective (or net) transaction done is $2,600 sell.
Now, someone else who is not keeping track of whether the transactions are buy/sell would record the effective transaction differently as shown below:

$2000 + $300 + $1,000 + $100 = $3,400

The value above is the TOTAL volume done ($3,400) while ($2,600 sell) is the EFFECTIVE or NET volume done.

MT4 records TOTAL volume transacted but what we really need to know is the NET volume.

So while you will be seeing price at $3,400 on your MT4 screen, the TRUE price is actually at $2,600 (sell side).

Ordinary price will keep on deceiving you. Until and unless you adjust the price in keeping with the volume and order type, you will not be able to get a TRUE representation of what is happening in the market.

I do hope that this post helps someone understand the need to use VAP instead of ordinary price.

Thank you.

Is this Q3 bull?
We watch (and pray?) Lol

swilo:


Please, since its Piotroski F score is ok, you can only test your assumptions with the Altman Z score or better still the Ohlsons O score.

Caveat: I am still computing the scores anyway.

Happy Sunday....

@Swilo u posted @ past 2 am, so u no dey sleep?
...abi Mr Ohlson no gree u sleep?

Anyway the ALTMAN Z-SCORE should be a much better valuation tool to imploy on companies that are highly leveraged like TRANSCORP.
1st off, it helps u to gauge a coys credit worthiness as a way of testing their liquidity strength.
...then u can benchmark their current value accretion(value behind the price) against surrounding risk(risk-return in view) to see whether they suite ur investment personality.
Note the phrase: "suite ur investment personality"

With TRANSCORP, PIOTROSKI F-SCORE(top and bottom line stance measured against its value proposition) is relatively healthy...
While current OHLSONS O-SCORE doesn't show any form of distress risk...

Regards.

Agbalowomeri:
Is this Q3 bull?
We watch (and pray?) Lol

Now tell me: Just how could u possibly wanna act out the part in bold, when u have repeatedly said u will only key in by NOVEMBER?
...it should've been that u should be praying and looking out for a bear market instead !!

Agba, Agba !! Dont worry, we already knew u keyed into the market in spasms before now.
In fact, we saw traces of u @ the bottom !!

BullBearMkt:
Will Guaranty Trust Bank Re-test 26.80 Support Level?
From creating a higher-high, the stock price is now heavily declining and there is high probability of the stock re-testing between 26.50 and 26.80 before making any upward reversal attempt.

chart: https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/GUARANTY/ZsgJkD0v-Will-Guaranty-Trust-Bank-Re-test-26-80-Support-Level/

PLAN YOUR TRADES AND TRADE YOUR PLANS

IMO, I believe it has declined to the point(27.60) it should rise upwards.

This week will be very interesting

BullBearMkt:

...the bears have been around for long and before bulls can finally dominate, they have to fight a good fight of dominance. For now I cannot see Zennith re-testing 16 sha, 17 ish is good to go

The 1H, 2H,4H and in some cases 1D timeframes of most stocks have been turned upwards. It is the 1W timeframe that is left. That is what the month of October is for.

Just put on your seat belt and enjoy the ride.

Stocks are gone. By November, the weekly timeframe must have been fully turned upwards.

Agbalowomeri:
Is this Q3 bull?
We watch (and pray?) Lol

You are fair at least. Always looking and speaking the truth albeit with jokes.

What you see there is the process of turning the daily timeframe upwards.

RabbiDoracle:




You are fair at least. Always looking and speaking the truth albeit with jokes.

What you see there is the process of turning the daily timeframe upwards.

Remember the daily has broken the clouds on previous two occasions
And still landed below, without the weekly following
My primary concern is the volume, the overall daily volume does not suggest accumulation albeit in some few stocks.
So, I won't be surprised if the daily lands back below the cloud after October

onegentleguy:


Now tell me: Just how could u possibly wanna act out the part in bold, when u have repeatedly said u will only key in by NOVEMBER?
...it should've been that u should be praying and looking out for a bear market instead !!

Agba, Agba !! Dont worry, we already knew u keyed into the market in spasms before now.
In fact, we saw traces of u @ the bottom !!

Most people thought that November will be the time FPIs will start to buy stocks, so they kept their funds in Tbills.

Agba looked at the chart but I think he had problems interpreting it. He was looking at the bottom and a reversal(upward) trend and kept saying that the candles are still under the cloud. Yes, the candle will still be under the cloud while the reversal starts and that is why it is called bottom!

RabbiDoracle:


Most people thought that November will be the time FPIs will start to buy stocks, so they kept their funds in Tbills.

Agba looked at the chart but I think he had problems interpreting it. He was looking at the bottom and a reversal(upward) trend and kept saying that the candles are still under the cloud. Yes, the candle will still be under the cloud while the reversal starts and that is why it is called bottom!

Lol

Maybe you should look at the previous 'bottoms' on the daily; it still found it way lower
Nobody can say 'this is the bottom'
We can only say 'it has happened' AFTER it has happened; only the monthly candle can show this joor
As it is we still cannot say for certainty that 'it has happened'
Despite that, I already made up my mind na November end/early december I dey enter market
Because I know I am close to dividend/result bull irrespective of what the long term trend is

RabbiDoracle:


IMO, I believe it has declined to the point(27.60) it should rise upwards.

This week will be very interesting

@RabbiDoracle, you could be right, but when the volume is rising while price is falling, more decline is expected. Weekly has bottomed out @26.

RabbiDoracle:


Most people thought that November will be the time FPIs will start to buy stocks, so they kept their funds in Tbills.

Agba looked at the chart but I think he had problems interpreting it. He was looking at the bottom and a reversal(upward) trend and kept saying that the candles are still under the cloud. Yes, the candle will still be under the cloud while the reversal starts and that is why it is called bottom!

The chart hid the 'strength' behind the weakness under the cloud and prevented them from seeing it !!
But it appears there was indeed 'strength around the cloud' now that it has gradually started revealing it.


It is well.

Agbalowomeri:


Lol

Maybe you should look at the previous 'bottoms' on the daily; it still found it way lower
Nobody can say 'this is the bottom'
We can only say 'it has happened' AFTER it has happened; only the monthly candle can show this joor
As it is we still cannot say for certainty that 'it has happened'
Despite that, I already made up my mind na November end/early december I dey enter market
Because I know I am close to dividend/result bull irrespective of what the long term trend is

U made reference to the daily timeframe pulling back below the cloud after 2 previous attempts to break out, so it makes sense to assume that it could be no different with this attempt.
On that note, ur basis for assumption is on the premise that volume is still relatively weak. ...well, I agree.
But what u haven't told us(perhaps ur acting indifferent to it) is if the seeming weak volume with this 3rd attempt has had more 'strength' when compared to the last 2 attempts.
Put differently, how has the momentum/weight with VOLUME faired this time compared to the last 2 failed attempts.
Could it be that though it is weak, it's been relatively stronger(momentum build-up in view) than those previous attempts?

A sick person who had typhoid but has been recuperating after undergoing several line of prescription and now experience only slight migraine, can of course still be referred to as sick, but is undoubtedly stronger than he was before !!

Markets follow thru 4 basic circles: CONSOLIDATION, BREAKOUT, TREND and REVERSAL.
I want to believe that while the best time to KEY IN lies with the 1st 2, the 1ST presents a much better chance of doing so than the 2nd(price in view), while the best time to sell lies with the last 2.(particularly the 4th)

The 1st(consolidation) following from the 4th(a reversal) rides through periods of a weak, to relatively weak to sparingly weak market(bear phases)... then to a strong, stronger and much stronger market(bull phases)
That 1st circle is the best time to key in. ...because u can't get more better bargains(better BEP in view) in a breakout(which is what u are probably waiting for) than a consolidation(which is where we are at the moment)
...because ur bargaining power as an investor will undoubtedly be better in the latter than the former.

This honours the 'buffetology' rule of finding the RIGHT BALANCE between fear and greed and seeking to maximize one's gains(ROI in view) by effectively utilizing the opportunities therein.

This is what @RabbiDoracle has been saying all along when he stated that mid August(when the market was apparently in its weakest state) was indeed the best time to have keyed in.
U would no doubt find that those who bought into(the then weakest market state) ACCESS @ N5.7, UBA @ N5.5 and ZENITH @ N16, to mention just a few, are better off for it.

U tend to FIND, and get a much better VALUE for ur money when u can KEY into HELTHY underpriced assets during the WEAKEST phase of a market circle !!

Fortunately, prices haven't gone beyond reach.
...so there's still the opportunity with some select assets.

WEAK is where ur strength(degree of ROI in view) should lie !!
...but for anything, it helps ensure u carry a lower risk premium/weighting as an investor.

Regards.

The message is, expect anything
Two year bear cannot just turn bullish overnight
Let's assume for theory sake that the ASI has reached the bottom at 27K
We will still be hanging around here for some months

Agbalowomeri:


Lol

Maybe you should look at the previous 'bottoms' on the daily; it still found it way lower
Nobody can say 'this is the bottom'
We can only say 'it has happened' AFTER it has happened; only the monthly candle can show this joor
As it is we still cannot say for certainty that 'it has happened'
Despite that, I already made up my mind na November end/early december I dey enter market
Because I know I am close to dividend/result bull irrespective of what the long term trend is

You are looking at just one chart instead of combination of many charts/indices. When you discover your error, then you will know how to see bottoms.

Cc Veecovee

Agbalowomeri:


Remember the daily has broken the clouds on previous two occasions
And still landed below, without the weekly following
My primary concern is the volume, the overall daily volume does not suggest accumulation albeit in some few stocks.
So, I won't be surprised if the daily lands back below the cloud after October

When price is still within the clouds there is no respite yet. The respite only comes when price gets beyond the clouds.

One word of caution to those using Ichimoku for analysis :

The default setting has 52, 26 for a reason.

How many WEEKS do we have in a year?

What is HALF the value of the answer above?

50% is somewhat a BALANCE point.

My recommendation : USE ICHIMOKU ON WEEKLY TF IF YOU ARE USING THE DEFAULT SETTING.

meshpips:


When price is still within the clouds there is no respite yet. The respite only comes when price gets beyond the clouds.

And waiting SOLELY for price to move above the clouds entails applying an extreme conservative approach to investing.
...and the problem with such approach is that 88% of the time, u tend to eventually get higher price bands and lesser VALUE for ur money.(value behind the price in view)

This is why I have always said that the TECHNICAL direction of an asset play should be blended with its FUNDAMENTALS and seasoned with the SENTIMENT at the time(surrounding risk adjusted return in view) to give one a much better footing.
The RIGHT MIX of a combination of KEY variants will more often than not put u 'thirteen steps ahead'

Cheers.

Agbalowomeri:
The message is, expect anything
Two year bear cannot just turn bullish overnight
Let's assume for theory sake that the ASI has reached the bottom at 27K
We will still be hanging around here for some months

2 years bear can disappear within some weeks. It will not take 2 years for it to disappear. It starts in a single day and gradually progresses.

meshpips:


When price is still within the clouds there is no respite yet. The respite only comes when price gets beyond the clouds.

And how will the price go beyond the cloud?

Isn't it when the buying force exceeds selling force and upturn the cloud? And remember the buy force will need to start when the candles are below the cloud(the bottom) . Cloud can't just turn bullish without the buying force when candles are under the bearish cloud.

And if you look, most banks have turned bullish on the 4H timeframe. This is a critical frame for turning the daily. Some are showing bullish cloud on the daily.

Una still dey learn!

RabbiDoracle:


2 years bear can disappear within some weeks. It will not take 2 years for it to disappear. It starts in a single day and gradually progresses.

Oga Oracle,I think the bull should come with volume.I am yet to see it.Only few stocks are responding

meshpips:
One word of caution to those using Ichimoku for analysis :

The default setting has 52, 26 for a reason.

How many WEEKS do we have in a year?

What is HALF the value of the answer above?

50% is somewhat a BALANCE point.

My recommendation : USE ICHIMOKU ON WEEKLY TF IF YOU ARE USING THE DEFAULT SETTING.

Let it be your trade secret.

Most people adjust their settings

You have sense no be small.

locodemy:


Oga Oracle,I think the bull should come with volume.I am yet to see it.Only few stocks are responding

When price is right, volume will surface.

RabbiDoracle:


When price is right, volume will surface.

Oh I see.Let prices come down a bit to trigger volume.some stocks prices are not right now and that's why volume is not seen.

I need to learn something on this price and volume.

Agbalowomeri:
The message is, expect anything
Two year bear cannot just turn bullish overnight
Let's assume for theory sake that the ASI has reached the bottom at 27K
We will still be hanging around here for some months

Prices will accelerate upwards. Say "I said" , not
you heard !

locodemy:


Oh I see.Let prices come down a bit to trigger volume.some stocks prices are not right now and that's why volume is not seen.

I need to learn something on this price and volume.

Noo. People have loaded at the bottoms and can't release their volumes. So price needs to keep inching upwards until people feel it is right for them to release volume (sell) and those bidding will see it as a good price to buy.

RabbiDoracle:


Noo. People have loaded at the bottoms and can't release their volumes. So price needs to keep inching upwards until people feel it is right for them to release volume (sell) and those bidding will see it as a good price to buy.

Ok.I understand.we need to keep our eyes on the bid side than the offer side now starting from this week.what if we don't see serious bids that will turn prices upwards?

locodemy:


Oh I see.Let prices come down a bit to trigger volume.some stocks prices are not right now and that's why volume is not seen.

I need to learn something on this price and volume.

During fuel crisis, I think fuel no dey dey filling station abi. But the very moment fuel station manager/attendants hike fuel price, fuel go dey abi. When the seller sees that the price is high for him to cover his cost and little profit, you go see them sell fuel(volume). You wey dey wait for many weeks to buy fuel, once dem increase fuel, you won't care but to buy and relax. That is an equilibrium situation!

Seller is happy and buyer is glad.

Then the cycle continues and prices get out of hand.