meshpips:


Those that are close to me got this trade recommendation when price was trading between 5.80 - 6.00

Abeg make I leave this device battery to charge and see whether I can get a little shut eye.

RabbiDoracle:


Honeywell bottom was at the same time with all others. 16th August 2019.

FA doesn't look good na. But with TA, it can still fly.

RabbiDoracle:


Honeywell bottom was at the same time with all others. 16th August 2019.

FA doesn't look good na. But with TA, it can still fly.

onegentleguy:


@Swilo u posted @ past 2 am, so u no dey sleep?
...abi Mr Ohlson no gree u sleep?

Anyway the ALTMAN Z-SCORE should be a much better valuation tool to imploy on companies that are highly leveraged like TRANSCORP.
1st off, it helps u to gauge a coys credit worthiness as a way of testing their liquidity strength.
...then u can benchmark their current value accretion(value behind the price) against surrounding risk(risk-return in view) to see whether they suite ur investment personality.
Note the phrase: "suite ur investment personality"

With TRANSCORP, PIOTROSKI F-SCORE(top and bottom line stance measured against its value proposition) is relatively healthy...
While current OHLSONS O-SCORE doesn't show any form of distress risk...

Regards.

Valueinvestor:

Only one

TraDeRR:
@BBM good evening boss, just 1 question ( as you never cover that aspect for my technical analysis class.. make I ask you here )

1) is it not possible for prices of stock to rise and ASI above Ichimoku cloud without volume ?
Because I saw volumes during the bear period but prices were going down.. what if sellers don sell finish ?
To me I think when there’s no volume that is when stocks rallies.. because buyers will have no choice than to buy at the available prices..

BullBearMkt:

...good evening my sister.
Your Ichimoku question should have been directed to @Agba, e be like say him don find love for the Japanese crawling way of trading
To simply answer your question - price can rise without volume - this is momentum rally. However, the rise might not last long due to lack of required force to further push the price up. It's like a car without petrol, it can move - when pushed with required force or put on neutral on a steep downward road & you know that will not take it far. But with enough petrol, you can travel with the car from Lagos to Kaduna.

When you have increase in price while price is falling, it indicates the presence of many sellers forcefully selling off the asset. This will definitely cause the price to decline; those buying could be other traders/investors or market makers. & when there are less sellers with many ready to buy at the current price, price begin to rise again.

TraDeRR:
I need that 2017 bull again.. I have never seen such before .. no stock was left out..

BullBearMkt:

...because the FA was bad, that's why you had the price testing the all time low. & there comes a time when it will start strengthening, range a while and later pick up

RabbiDoracle:


There is what advanced traders do : they place huge offers to scare the weak hands. A Kilimanjaro of offers. If you get money, try and mop. Then you see the broker withdraw those offers.

But the essence is to make people to panic and bring out their volumes for sale.

It happened in Access last week. High wall of offers, weak hands brought out their volumes and it got mopped up. Later offers vanished. That jus how big boys buy during bullish market.

During bearish market, the reverse happens. They place Mount Everest type of bids. Na lie o. Dem wan sell. So you see more people starting to buy and increasing their bids. They will just be selling to them

In Chess, it is called Decoy. You are lured to the gallows

I shouldn't be explaining these.

pluto09:



Agba strategy to enter market in November is not to buy stocks at their lowest price........

Princkez:
yes my brother and if it clicks
..hmmmm

locodemy:


Oh I see.Let prices come down a bit to trigger volume.some stocks prices are not right now and that's why volume is not seen.

I need to learn something on this price and volume.

onegentleguy:
THE CURRENT 'TRAVAILS' OF PZ NIG PLC !!

A few days ago, I told some folks that I'd rather accumulate more UACN than PZ, given their current market prices.
Well, PZ just released its Q1 2019/2020 result with a material gap down across all KEY revenue and earnings line.

Key highlights:

• Contracting margins(PBT & NET MARGIN in view) following the offset of stiffer competition from lower price points.
...with PAT MARGIN declining by near an alarming 436% printing a LOSS of over N1.1B in the period under review.
But for the zero tax expense(which it currently enjoys via a tax exempt relief) the loss position would've been far higher.

• Decelerating revenue(despite a relatively stable price regime) following a visible struggle for volume push.

• Though the coys QUICK RATIO of 0.6 smacks off a healthy short term liquidity stance, its CURRENT RATIO peg of 1.6 shows that something is just not right with PZ earnings drive.
...3 things are at play here:

1st off, it suggest that the company has been struggling to squeeze out earnings from its longer duration current asset play.
On that line, inventory position has been gulping up... reflective in the poor inventory turnover.
Elsewhere, the coy is also not getting any positive offset of value from its prepaid expense. Again, reflective in the worrisome A/C receivable turnover.
The struggle for sales margin(given higher inventory and lower receivables) has forced management to allow for more repayment period to debtors by over a 1/2 in the last 2 yrs.
Both lines have resulted in the difficulty with building higher net income from gross revenue.

By the way, the CURRENT RATIO peg of 1.6 means that for every N10 of current liability in its book, the company will require approx N16 of current asset to settle it.
Put differently, PZ currently expands 60% more for its near term obligations/liabilities than it earns over the same period.
A strong case for the view that the company is presently working more for its creditors and far less for its shareholders.

• The company hasn't managed to optimize cost(cost savings accruals in view).
...save for the gains from a lower admin expense by circa 2350bps(the resultant effect of lower vol drive occasioned by higher inventory from weaker sales and a possible downsizing of its workforce) all KEY cost line(CoS, opex margin) inched up.

• On the profitability/earnings front, the group lost 23k more than it did just 3 months ago.
Elsewhere, EM, ROAE, ROAA, RoIC, AsQ and AsY all pointed downwards, with some printing negative figures.

• Though the coys OHLSONS O-SCORE shows that there is no immediate worry of default(distress risk in view), its ALTMAN Z-SCORE points to a higher credit risk weighting with a far less value drive behind the current price.
To further lend credence to that, the coys PIOTROSKI F-SCORE suggest a value trap !!(value behind the price in view)

Using a combination of certain key valuation model at an assumed same relative growth rate with Q1, and adjusting for a sufficient risk premium(taking into a/c near term surrounding impact), I have FVE of N4.29(@ the point when likely reward would overtake risk)
...which translates to a sell given current market price.

This is what I'll do if I hold a position in the coy. ...especially if my strategic play with it does not fit into a long term plan.
...but that's just me.

DISCLAIMER: The views expressed in this analysis was drawn from PZ' latest financial print.
The interpretation therefore should only be that of a view, and NOT a recommendation.

My advice: Do well to follow ur instinct.

On a side note, certain financial variants are pointing to the plausibility that this coy might turn out to be a take over candidate in future.(perhaps the CONTINENTAL RE or NEWREST ASL style)
It's important to note that minority shareholders hold just a minot approx 229M units out of just over 26.7% of the coys OS held with several investors.
The parent company, PZ CUSSONS UK LTD holds the balance of over 73.2% stake.

Salah.

onegentleguy:


I'd rather buy more UACN than PZ, given their near mkt price range.

Over a broad and well adjudged P2P analysis UACN is still ahead of PZ both on earnings/return and cashflow drive.(possible cap appreciation and dividend returns in view)
...well, at least for now.
UACN' near competitor in that line is now FLOURMILLS(risk-adjusted value accretion in view)

Regards.

onegentleguy:


@Swilo u posted @ past 2 am, so u no dey sleep?
...abi Mr Ohlson no gree u sleep?

Anyway the ALTMAN Z-SCORE should be a much better valuation tool to imploy on companies that are highly leveraged like TRANSCORP.
1st off, it helps u to gauge a coys credit worthiness as a way of testing their liquidity strength.



...then u can benchmark their current value accretion(value behind the price) against surrounding risk(risk-return in view) to see whether they suite ur investment personality.
Note the phrase: "suite ur investment personality"

With TRANSCORP, PIOTROSKI F-SCORE(top and bottom line stance measured against its value proposition) is relatively healthy...
While current OHLSONS O-SCORE doesn't show any form of distress risk...

Regards.

Agbalowomeri:
Guaranty on the daily
Abeg e do

Godlylifeoneart:







The problem with valuation metrics is that even intrinsic value is a relative concept. The calculation of intrinsic value depends on many assumptions. We have to assume that the financial statements are a true reflection of the profitability. We have to assume that the person who built the valuation model knew what he was doing. We have to assume that “all things will remain constant”. We have to assume that the currency we use to measure the value, won’t be debased by deliberate Central Bank action. We also have to assume that the market will realise the difference between the market price and the calculated or assumed value and will move towards intrinsic value.

Then, we also have to assume that all the other people, whose models indicate much lower intrinsic values, made the wrong assumptions and used the wrong models. In other words, all of them are wrong and I am the only one who made the correct assumptions.

Before you use this model to invest you hard-earned money, try it on you wife first. See how well your assumptions work in your relationship before you put your money on it.

Valueinvestor:


Buy high, sell higher gang.

DOLLARTEX:
you play chess?

RabbiDoracle:


Only GTB, Stanbic, ETI and FBN have 1D timeframe that have not yet turned bullish. But all their 4H have turned bullish.

The big caps should be leading the ASI rise because most of if them have bottomed out.

Stocks don waka.

I don't usually explain this much on NL but I had to so as to allay people's fears. People need to hold tight. The worst was over in August 2019.

Agbalowomeri:


Bros oracle abeg what happens in fx stays in fx
4H for nse stocks Lol

RabbiDoracle:




We shall see soon if the market is bearish or bullish. Till November abi?

DOLLARTEX:
don't worry,NSE will give us independence bull!