Look like Raila Odinga has just called Ruto to congratulate him and concede defeat. This is a first for him

Talam is Ruto press aide.
https://twitter.com/EmmanuelTalam/status/1558050673916317696
And the call came. No one will dispute the election outcome. The handover will be smooth. We are a great country!

I am only shocked by how Raila did very well otherwise I knew Ruto was winning.

Senate - Ruto has it - Speaker will be UDA.

Parliament - Ruto is leading there too.

Wuoche:

You will be shocked.

Kenya election. This has been one most transparent election -technology has worked 99.5%- we probably have beaten Ghana in democratic transition. Ghana and Zambia - of course South Africa, Botswana and Namibia - are miles ahead of the rest of Africa in holding regular, peaceful, free and fair elections.

BBC now are tallying
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-62444316

LIVE RESULTS
Last updated: 08/12/2022, 13:40:46 local time (GMT+3)

Provisional results from IEBC

Candidates Vote
William Ruto
William Ruto
52.9%
Kenya Kwanza Alliance
Votes: 5,350,472
At least 25% of county votes 16/47
Raila Odinga
Raila Odinga
46.4%
Azimio la Umoja coalition
Votes: 4,696,298
At least 25% of county votes 13/47

Why stop in middle? They should have completed it. Reuters is doing it now.

We know mainstream media were opposed to Ruto because they are owned by Uhuru, MOi, Macharia(Raila) and gov arm twisted them long time ago with advertising

Thank goodness for social media

Wuoche:


You are very weird, when those media you are criticizing are showing your candidate above 50% you are happy and praising them, when the gap has been reduced to 49% then they are captured

The answer is more devolution or federalism - with revenue shared equitably. The loser in kenya will have their own county gov with their own governors.Nobody goes home empty handed.That is better than what you have in Tanzania - CCM dictatorship.

Acadavah:


The winner take all Democracy is so bad when results like this happen. The 50.1% winner take all the executives while 49.9% voice of the country is discarded.

Boss all the mainstream captured media were ordered to stop the count when it became clear the gov project had failed.

Wuoche:
Today morning.

Wouche, it over for Baba, see you in supreme court.
And this a rightly shaped map of kenya - done by Charles Hornsby
Show Ruto has won big

Migori he is projected to be at 27%. Kurias are almost 40% of Migori. They like Ruto there...UDA/URP have been winning Mp seats.

Wuoche:


When Ruto vie before vie before to get usual Kuria votes you are talking about? . Are you dreaming about Luo Nyanza? None of the 4 luo Nyanza counties Ruto got above 3%. Machakos Ruto is below 20%

wouche look for another straw - 40 counties Ruto scores above 25%.
Migori he scores 27%

He fails ONLY in Siaya, Kisumu, Homabay, Makueni, Machakos, Kitui, Mandera and Busia.

Plus Taita Taveta -

So roughly 39 counties -

Kuria normal vote for Ruto - so will check again.
I think Ruto has close to 40 counties - will check Machakos and Makueni plus 4 Luo counties - maybe Mandera.
The rest he is getting above 25%.

Wuoche:


Name for me at least 24 counties where Ruto have managed at least 25%. Again which Migori county are you talking about?

Here is a better map of Kenya settlement.
This akin to US - democrats just get votes along the coastlines - with big cities - republican take the middle of American with cattle and corn.
Raila is winning where they are camels and cattle - people who share in his misery of marginalization and suffering.
Ruto is getting 25% in 44 counties (will check Migori)

Wuoche:
Here is the map of Kenya with demarcated counties. The blue colors indicate the counties where Raila has led and the yellow colors indicate the counties where Ruto has led. Remember one must get at least 25% votes in each of at least 24 counties.

To get to leadership in a country like kenya you need to be corrupt (commercialized politics - in some countries it violence) and sometimes even murder people.
Mandela was trying Mahtma Gadhia non-violence but you meet with violence - and eventually he had to kill many of you people.
You locked him up - saying he was violent terrorist.
Great presidents like Kagame or old Museveni or Meles Zenawi killed people.
Ruto without money wont have a chance in kenya corrupt politics - and sometimes you murder a few people who want to murder you because it's high stake games here.

Now you cannot say because Meles Zenawi was corrupt or killed many he wasnt a great president.
Pinochet was corrupt but he made chile the only developed country - apart from Argentina.
Indonesia Suharto did the same.
China is dictatorship but they are going to first world.
Ghana military rule Rawling killed people but fixed Ghana.
Thomas Sankara killed people but fixed Burkina Faso.

Ruto will transform Kenya because he is brilliant, he is passionate, he is hardworking and he is effective leader.
He get stuff DONE.

Now you can moralize all day in a church but as leader - corruption/killing people - is part of TOR. That is why they are commanders in chiefs.

jl115:
he is corrupt and a murderer..... However Odinga isn't better as well.... So either way Kenya is still fvcked

I just want to see who deletes their accounts first... Rvp2022 or Shma2022

Kenya Update - Reuters doing their tally using constituency return

Until fat lady sings. But as for my numbers I am going to do postmorteum and understand what happened here. Definitely there has been a lot of rigging previously as seen by huge drop of turnout.

68816419:

Congrats man

Kenya Opinion Pollsters whose terrible work is emblemed in Azimio billboard have taken a hiding. I think this should be left to run for 5yrs at their joint cost as reminder that kenya pollsters need to have some integrity and really focus on the science of polling.

I think monkey games at this point is hard....Deep State and System understimated capacity of IEBC to run things - and of course Ruto counter-intelligence was on top.

Acadavah:


He might be the Captain of the 23rd kalenjini mechanized arrows and spears brigade when the final results is out.
If the election continues to be free and fair, Ruto will win.

This one is over. Uhuru I heard is trying to reach Ruto to hammer some deal. It will be smallest winning margin btw two candidates.

Requirement is to score 50% plus one and 25% in half the counties.

Kenya Election Update - Nation Media seem to have woken up

Provisional Presidential results as at 5:29 PM
William Ruto- 50.18%
6,643,797 Votes
Raila Odinga- 49.14%
6,506,687 Votes
George Wajackoyah- 0.44%
58,628 Votes
David Waihiga- 0.23%
30,820 Votes

You can now get a live update of the Kenyan election results as provided by the digital copies of the Form 34Bs (constituency results) coming into the public portal

Provided by Reuters/Google

Just google "Kenya election results"

This based on Constituency aggregrates - 290 - less intensive process (though not legal final) like polling stations data.
https://forms.iebc.or.ke/#/

From Form 34As - calculation I have seen from various sources have converged thus - this election has no intrigues because IEBC have dumped the result for anybody anywhere in the world to do the maths.

Ruto 50.5% of 7.2/7.3m
Raila has 48.8% of 6.9M.
Waja and Mwaura are doing about 0.2 & 0.4 (0.6%)

Now all the forms 34As are IN - except for 50 - mostly from Eldas in Wajir

Why are Azimio so afraid to tabulate and calculate; Because Ruto has won it.
You guys have long faces in Bomas because you've lost

My senator is normally a serious dude

Forms 34A from polling stations received as at 11:51am.....11/8/22 46,153/46,229 with total votes of 14,277,542
Total Turnout 14,300,423
WSR-7,358,499 51.7%
RAO- 6,845,142. 48.01% Others - 0.29%
76 polling stations to go... Form 34A.

Azimio so far yet to release any data since their last attempt to fake data.

DATA IKO HAPA - free for entire world.
https://forms.iebc.or.ke/#/

You can even download the entire dataset zipped - 10GB

Shma2022:


Thank goodness it's a mere projection with almost 300k deficit from the total votes.

At this moment, no one can take any UDA data seriously.

Baba the 5th.

Yes that interesting. So far IEBC have delivered a credible process. Pretty much all forms are in except the last 60 or less - mostly in Wajir (47)
https://forms.iebc.or.ke/#/

NTSA:
Apparently the kits failed during voting but were functioning during submission .

Forget the captured media...who have been told to stall and then terminate the counting
Folks have completed calculating this.
This is very transparent process so far.

Wuoche:
Rvp this is not a sprint but a marathon. Finishing is near

You really want me gone so you can have a free run here

jl115:
If Raila wins, will you deactivate your account or take your punishment like a man?

The most credible results/projections points to this 52 v 47 - with 1% for others.

Captured mainstream media have now stopped the counting. Uhuru must be hoping to cook something with IEBC.
But 99.8% of all forms are in
Most credible calculation point at narrow Ruto win of 51-52%
https://forms.iebc.or.ke/#/

Everyone shouting they have won - except the Azimio/Raila crew have no figures - after their badly done cookery yesterday - they are now shooting we are winning.

You live in your own universe. Manual voting was only okayed in 200 polling station - about 100 in Kakamega and 100 in Kitui. These are areas where kit were probably swapped. Gachagua voted biometrically. They are several steps before manual...first all all your biometric (fingers, eyes)... then next your ID scanned & used to search you electronically(alphanumeric search)....and that should pretty much solved the any problem. It was 99.999%. Then replacement kit is brought. Manual register had to be okayed from NAIROBI....so it was difficult process.

Again the Court of Appeal - agreed to manual but refused the crossing of the names. That was MAIN SOURCE OF RIGGING - because people look at book - see who has not voted - and then cross their names - vote for them. Now because the KIEMS kit is blind - they dont know who has voted or not - so cannot dare to rig.

Manual voting meant you end up with presidential ballot with more than a million votes than rest of seats...mostly from each candidate stronghold (99% voting for him so their total collusion including IEBC staff) and remote Norther Region by security forces.

So far turnout is realistic - highest in Kalenjin land at mid 70s, followed by Mt kenya and Luos at 67%, then it goes down to average of 60% and some 50%.

Voting tick. Result transmission tick.

Only complaints so far - mathematical errors and impunity where someone put cast voters exceeding registered voters in result transmission - still lots of areas where UDA had no agent (like in Bondo it's not safe) or in NEP - so many such monkey games - Chebukati will flag them - but cant do anything about it - as polling stations result are final

Also great presidential results are now counted and sent first before chaos erupt in lower seats

Tayser:


IEBC has played its game well this time, everyone agrees. The manual register was used, just not extensively. It was actually used to identify Gachagua after the KIEMS kits failed consecutively. We had this discussion before the election. You didn't want it, I wanted it for what I thought was obvious reasons. The courts agreed with me. In the end it helped your candidate. My dude, even Mother Teressa wasn't this magnanimous.

The good thing both sides agree - no hacking as been successfully so far - we just need folks to download the forms - and do the calculation. IEBC have turned everyone into returning officer. Chebukati has been very brilliant. Kill the manual register ( turnout dropped dead) and then kill monkey games with results.

Chebukati has exceed expectation - they have been rigging in few places - Luo Nyanza, some areas of Marsabit/Mandera/Wajir - but nothing serious.

Tayser:


You fell short of disclosing Chirchir's full role. An attempted hack of the IEBC public portal by the Davis Chirchir led team was thwarted last night. The attack on the portal by the team began at around 23:34:26HRS - 09/08/2022 continuing to 02:49:04 HRS - 10/08/2022 and in the process, causing a temporary outage of the portal.

Ruto is not disorganized Raila. I hear he doesnt even have a tallying center. Ndii job is strictly restricted to economics. The rest of the stuff he is in the dark. Ruto has 2 parrallel tallying center.

Itumbi and his friends are doing their own thing - Infact they had approached me to help them - but I cannot engage in anything coz of contract issues. Itumbi is mostly based on Whatsapp...simple systems that require lots of human managment overhead.

Chirchir runs his own parrallel tallying and vote protection. Chirchir runs mostly USSD and apps. Chirchir team are doing triple entry and are based in Ruto bunker.

Then final system is one for tallying official records with IEBC - Chirchir run that too.

Those are three foolproof systems - you disable one - you have two more working. Ruto doesnt bahatisha things.

On the other side - they have nothing - Matiangi and Gicheru - have engaged some chinese to try to corrupt and bring down IEBC system - they have failed. So far all forms where UDA agents were present matches with IEBC data - meaning any corruption has failed - except few desperate cases where cast votes exceed registered

Matiangi gave them false hope mid-day - they started running around with propaganda of they have won 12.7M - but come afternoon Chebukati said - it's 14.3m- twitter has flagged all their fake propaganda down- and as of now - they are just waiting for fate. Raila and family are monitoring his blood pressure every few minutes.

Tayser:


Why dont you suggest that to this man here. I warned you about the high correlation between Ndii and loss.

I predicted 55% versus 44% with 1%; I did prediction for MPs/Senate/many others things. We will have postmorteum - though the numbers are looking like 52% versus 48% - I am still right for predicting Ruto win - just 3% off.
Now you champ predicted Raila at 57% and Ruto at 41% - you definitely take the prize for the most idiotic prediction.

Tayser:


He was way off the mark. From all appearances we shall know the winner tomorrow. IEBC wont announce at night.

I have worked with huge dataset - manage huge data entry - accuracy be fixed by just having double or triple data entry - any data entry BPO out there can do this for cheap. You give it to indians or filipinos - they delivere it in two hours - with accuracy of 99.9%.

Once the results are well known - those that have lost should not wait for IEBC - but should concede and move on.

That is how we can move our democracy forward. It's already good but can become better. By now someone should have conceded..unless it very very tight.

Wuoche:

Relax big man, what's the hurry for?
IEBC has 7 days to announce results so be cool, again nobody wants to be crucified in this election for making a mistakes and that's why you see those media houses taking their time to add the numbers. This time round everything nobody is gonna cry cause everything has been laid open.