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Nairaland Forum / Umarlawal's Profile / Umarlawal's Posts
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Binikingdowm:Stupid Nonsense |
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This was against reasonable analysis then that Chibok wouldn’t vote PDP because of how Jonathan’s wife treated the Chibok Girls’ parents. Also, the fact that attacks by Boko Haram has increased in last weeks wouldn’t change the minds of those who have decided to vote Buhari. Also, the fact that President Buhari consistently continues to appoint a northern Christian as Secretary to the Government of the Federation will not translate to any votes in his favour. So this factor too is not being considered. Those who think the religious tool PDP used in 2011 and 2015 can no longer sway should think again. Of course Atiku is Muslim too. But many see him as more liberal than Buhari. Other factors abound – but they’re also not being considered. If you disagree with this model – I know many will – let me know what you think. |
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Explanations This looks neat enough and makes mathematical sense. If you grant my postulates P1 through P6 and PP, you must also grant my theorems T1 through T3 as valid consequences of them. T1 follows from P1, P3, P4 and P5. T2 follows from P2, P3, P4, P5 and P6. T3 follows from T1 and T2. Postulate P states that other factors are not being considered. But what other factors? For a critical consumption of this model, let’s plainly state the factors. Boko Haram is not going to have as much sway on the voting patterns of the Northeastern states with a sizeable population of Christians. Northern Christians who voted for Jonathan in 2015 from Northeast are likely to vote Atiku in 2019 – regardless of the Boko Haram phenomenon. Thus, Boko Haram is not being considered for some of the Northeastern states. Let me give one example. Do you know that there were people in Chibok who voted Jonathan in 2015? |
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Theorems Theorem 1: Atiku will win all the states in the Southeast (7,665,859) and South-south (11,133,620) and Northcentral (6,610,827) except Niger State (2,014,317), Nasarawa State and Kwara State (1,142,267), giving him a total of 25,410,306. Theorem 2: Gen. Buhari will win all the states of the Northwest (17,620,436), all the states of the Southwest (13,731,090), Niger (2,014,317), Nasarawa and Kwara (1,142,267) states from Northcentral and all the states of the Northeast (6,208,197) except Taraba (1,340,652) and Adamawa (1,559,012) where he’ll share the votes with Atiku; giving Buhari a total of 40, 716,307 votes. Theorem 3: Gen Buhari will win the election with popular votes from 19 states or the equivalent of 40 million votes in percentage which is 59% of the votes. |
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Postulate 4: The undecided voters will vote according to the states the PDP and the opposition parties won in 2015, except in Nasarawa and Benue. Postulate 5: All eligible voters will collect their permanent voter’s card (PVC) before the deadline and will vote. Postulate 6: Atiku will get 25% of votes from Northwest (because of Kwankwaso, Tambuwal, etc.) and from Niger State. Buhari will get 25% of votes from Southeast (because Gov Obiano campaigns for Buhari in Anambra and Ebonyi, Okorocha’s influence in Imo and former Gov Kalu’s popularity as APC senatorial candidate of Abia North). Postulate P: Other factors that may play a role in the result of the election are not being considered. |
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The Postulates Postulate 1: Factors which influenced election victory have not changed since 2015. Such factors are: voting based on ethnicity and religion as well as Southeast and Niger Delta’s inclination to vote PDP. Postulate 2: Buhari will win the states he won in 2015 and PDP will win the states it won in 2015 except Benue and Nasarawa states. In 2015 winning Benue by Buhari was an anomaly. Therefore, in 2019, Benue will, as statisticians say, regress to the mean. It will go back to its normal position – to the PDP. The opposite will happen in Nasarawa State. Buhari has never won that state. But will win it this time, because all the PDP big shots have joined the APC. Postulate 3: Undecided voters (defined as those who didn’t vote in 2015) will vote in 2019. This model uses the voter register of 2015. |
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So, I’m going to create a math model to explains this – even though a simple one. Do not mind its simplicity however. “In principle, it matters not whether the math methods employed to carry out math proof are simple,” wrote William J. Adams, author of ‘Slippery Math in Public Affairs’, “or the ultimate in technical sophistication.” In doing this, I do not guarantee reality, only validity. That is, a promise of (a perfect) accuracy of the prediction of voter behaviour is neither explicitly nor tacitly claimed. Based on my postulates (a crystallization of my assumptions) however, my theorems (conclusions) are valid. Another person could bring forth a different set of postulates (the hypothesis) and reach conclusions that are different from mine – keeping in mind the RIRO (if realistic input, realistic output) and the NINO (nonsense in, nonsense out). Now that I’ve turned in my excuse early, let’s move on to the model. First we’ll start with the postulates; in logic or rhetoric, these would be called premises. The theorems or conclusions followed the postulates. The theorems are drawn based on the postulates. |
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To clear some doubts about ASUU
Referendum, ASUU as A Body has
75 Member Universities which
comprises of State and Federal
owned Universities..
On Tuesday this Universities and their members had their
referendum on whether to
Suspend the strike or not, this
included both Zonal and University
Chapters, About 50 universities of
the 75 members university voted for suspension, Source from Esut
Chapter pro and Delsu ASUU
chapter which comprises also of
the south South Zonal chapter..
The 200 Members that is being
Circulated has to do with South West Zonal ASUU members, They
came to UniIbadan and 50
Members voted firfor suspension
and 150 for continuation of the
strike
Please Note that also according to Pman ( Prof) and an ASUU Rep too
the 200 Members Is just that of the
Southwest Zone of ASUU and not
the general Results from other
chapters and Zone
The referendum was both for Zonal and Chapters , like south
East and South south Zone voted for Suspension
Let's wait today for the Final NEC 1 Like 1 Share |
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aerozac:I recommend buk because I am in the system buk due consider kogi indigene in 200L alone more than 10 are from kogi |
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Federal Ministry of Labour @LabourMinNG 7m Progress made, conciliatory
meeting with ASUU over to
reconvene on Thursday 7th
February 2019 |
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encryptjay:Yeah exactly my guy we are enjoying oo o |
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Nbote:You are dullard how can you compare kogi state and katsina state.Katsina state is far far better than kogi state even katsina state medical students are enjoying huge sume of money annually tackless of Doctors.For your own information I am 200L Medical student they give #304K annually for preclinical(100L,200L,300L) and #528K for clinical(400L,500L,600L) katsina state indigene medical students |
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My source is Daily Trust education section |
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asuustrike1: airminem: asuustrike1:My source is DAILY TRUST newspaper check education section 1 Like |
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ASUU on thursday said the federal government has failed to make fresh offer on funding for the revitilisation of public universities in Nigeria. ASUU Prof Biodun Ogunyemi stated this on strike bulletin 9 sent to the branches on 24/1/2019 “At the meeting held on 21 January, 2017 between the Union and Government agents (the Minister of Labour and Employment and Representatives of relevant government agencies), government improved its earlier offer. “However, government has failed to address the crucial and critical issues of funding for the revitalisation of public universities in Nigeria and renegotiation of the 2009 FGN/ASUU Agreement. “To confuse the public about our struggle, agents of government and some haters of our principled and purposeful struggle are peddling all sorts of misinformation through various media. Members must disregard any media information unverified or not authenticated by the Union”. Lalasticlala Mynd44 |
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Ximenez:Sir If I may ask are you also BUKITES? If yes which department and Level |
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ISISs:Hi ISISs Can university paste result despite ASUU strike I am patiently waiting for my result BUK MBBS but I never think they can paste result with the current ASUU strike ![]() 1 Like |
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Please send me the past questions Drumarlawal@gmail.com |
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To Whom It May Concern. BAYERO UNIVERSITY, KANO
RELEASES 2018/2019 ADMISSION
LIST.
The management of Bayero
University, Kano has released the
2018/2019 Admission list. The list was pasted earlier today in various
departments and Faculties notice
board. The list will be available in BUK
official portal in due process.
Screening of successful candidate will
commence on Monday, 12th November 2018.
Copied! |
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extrovertAishat:The creteria is that when your Aggregate meets the merit cut of mark you will be admitted irrespective of your state of origin. With regards to how they calculate their aggreagate is simple their post utme is 400 marks what ever your score add with your JAMB score and divide by 2 for example mine was JAMB 288 POST UTME 328 Aggregate 308 Here is my phone number for more clarification 08062775807 sorry for my late reply Busy preparing for my MB 1 coming up december |
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The publisher of news website Daily Nigeria, Jafar Jafar, has arrived in Kano for a meeting with a Kano House of Assembly Committee investigating the bribery allegation against Governor Abdullahi Ganduje, Channels Television reports. Jafar is expected to proceed from the airport to meet with the committee, which was set up on Monday, October 15, to investigate the authenticity of the video clip published by his website, allegedly showing the governor receiving bribe from contractors, a claim Ganduje has described as false. In view of his arrival, security was beefed up at the Assembly and a team of operatives were reportedly dispatched to the airport to escort him to the House complex |
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[color=#990000][/color]@DJBESTJC I really sympatise with you,but dont relent on your effort,I am currently now 200L MBBS student at BUK Kano,why cant you try less competative university like BUK? I have alot of friends that were offered admission based on merit with 280+ aggregate score 1 Like |
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[color=#990000][/color]I am UMAR LAWAL indigene of katsina state I applied MBBS in BUK this year and I was given almost1122 check no.5 in the MBBS merit list I am the one,my jamb score 288 my post utme 328 average 308.0.My advice to u is that go for that BOTANY dont take it for granted and reapply for MBBS,dont deceive yourself in BUK there is no any means that u can cross from any course to MBBS even if u have perfect 5.0GP that is their policy may Allah help u too to get it next year 2 Likes |
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Great doctors in the house i applied mbbs into bayero university kano any hope for me my jamb score 288 post utme score 328 Aggregate 308 any hope for me?i am an indigene of katsina state. |
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[color=#990000][/color] Please has anyone from KATSINA state been call UG?? Please has anyone from KATSINA state been call UG?? Please has anyone from KATSINA state been call UG?? |
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Whats app guys |
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Please what of those from north western part of nigeria any one that received call from fsb should help us and signify himself so that we shall know whether they call anyone from this region thanks... |
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Steveobasi34:Please my friend tell us the full detail of what had happened... |
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bash6:My friend dont get tired just keep on praying and seek for another alternative so that even if you were not awarded it wont hurt you my friend |
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Meek75:They can change you the course that tally with your O level performance good luck |
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