The market was bloody today. Thank God I exited wapco at 18.50 yesterday. Took profit from FBNH and Zee today. Let's see how things pan out before going back in.

chibjohn:
The market was bloody today. Thank God I exited wapco at 18.50 yesterday. Took profit from FBNH and Zee today. Let's see how things pan out before going back in.

Zenith and FBHN move was cool but that WAPCO move was wrong... My opinion sha

megawealth01:
Zenith and FBHN move was cool but that WAPCO move was wrong... My opinion sha

Let's see how it goes sha. Even if I re-enter wapco at the current price, it wasn't a bad decision. I will wait a little bit to see where the market is headed.

Insurance companies to cry, especially LASACO

Krisuba:


I wisj there is away to scatter this market. D country is on fire and all some people is thinking is money!! Y not shut down trading

Even during war some businesses still go on.
Leave market alone. That the market is on is not insensitive to reality rather that is how the system works infact the market is already reacting to the reality in the society. If any situation that warrant the market to be closed happens for sure it will close it's rare though.

For now just watch and if you can take risk, use the opportunity of the bear that may appear now due to the unrest and accumulate fundamentally sound stocks.

Remember no matter how bad a situation seems it's an opportunity for some other fellows.

I hope you know the owner of Zoom has his best time in terms of profit in his life during the worst time in the world. This is reality no sentiment.

God will have mercy on us and this period will pass!

currentprice:
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/31670_GUINNESS_NIG_PLC%20_QUARTER_1_%20_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_.pdf

cc peter

And you claim not to see the N18.7Billion pile of cash they are currently sitting on compared to the N4.9B they had 3months ago

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

Guinness is cash-loaded and well positioned to fly. Well managed company

Actually Guinness outstanding performance was a product of leakages blocking and cost reduction.

Danniee:
Actually Guinness outstanding performance was a product of leakages blocking and cost reduction.

Folks should leave 1759 to do a N13 again.

Harvestock01:


Folks should leave 1759 to do a N13 again.

Probably won't happen any time soon.

I think Guinness performance is not that bad...have a look at this

Princkez:
I think Guinness performance is not that bad...have a look at this

"ENEKE the bird says that since men have learned to shoot without missing, he has learned to fly without perching."-Chinua Achebe,

Since June 2018 that this GOOD FOR NOTHING Buhari REGIME have learned to TAX the BREWERY SECTOR to DEATH via EXCISE DUTY,

GUINNESS management have learned to HIDE their PROFIT via IMPAIRMENTS.

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

safepaulooo:
Oando has been hovering and ranging for quite a while now. I perceive a strong break out soonest. Who else is observing this stock? Fundamentals may not be that good but sentiments may soon push it to 4+. Anyone with opinions?

I've also been observing Oando.
I only didn't mention it cos of the kind of sentiments Nsempas attached to it. I no get strength for argument.
In fact, some jijoists must have codedly done nothing less than 3 trips in this stock and lots of increased activities there recently.
I also think it may likely enjoy positive sentiment but this is not any form of buy advice. Just stating my observation as well.

Yeah. I just have this gut feeling something is brewing there. That stock sabi spring surprises

Mcy56:

I've also been observing Oando.
I only didn't mention it cos of the kind of sentiments Nsempas attached to it. I no get strength for argument.
In fact, some jijoists must have codedly done nothing less than 3 trips in this stock and lots of increased activities there recently.
I also think it may likely enjoy positive sentiment but this is not any form of buy advice. Just stating my observation as well.

safepaulooo:
Yeah. I just have this gut feeling something is brewing there. That stock sabi spring surprises

Let's keep watching......

See INTBREW, it has returned over +130% within short term. The strength was even still there if not for this protest issue....and despite that, it didnt shed price yesterday inspite of the panic. Though some bargainers jumped in at days low. So surprises still happens in NSE.

** Just sharing opinion pls**.

Please who knows when FUGAZ Q3 results will be out?

PETERiCHY:
Since June 2018 that this GOOD FOR NOTHING Buhari REGIME have learned to TAX the BREWERY SECTOR to DEATH via EXCISE DUTY, BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

Just some questions for Guinness investors

Is Guinness not in the same Sector with Nigerian Breweries?
Is Guinness the only company affected by the excise duty?
Guinness may be sitting on a lot of Cash but we know thats not Guinness primary function, its function is to make that cash sweat and work hard for investors.

Guinness is not doing well right now so investors should trade with caution. From a Loss Per share of 17kobo in Q1 2019 to Loss per share of 38kobo in Q1 2020.

This doesnt mean the company cant turn around its fortune if it gets better managers. I see a lot of inefficiencies in Guinness, If i am buying right now ,I will buy as a long term investment.

Market stabilizing........ recovering......
Cautious trading ongoing....

Mcy56:
Market stabilizing........ recovering......
Cautious trading ongoing....

Mcy56,

thanks for your diligence and consistency. You are a jewel of inestimable value.

prof2007:


Mcy56,

thanks for your diligence and consistency. You are a jewel of inestimable value.

yeah. her kid will be NSE DG one day

On Guinness...
I wonder how some of u interpret financial statements.
...there is need to learn how to read between the line, extrapolate figures from a collection of key financial indicators/determinants before drawing conclusions.
That coy is struggling. ...earnings are draining and it does appear that a would-be point of inflection is still a bit far away.

For those talking about the coys current cash position, hear this;
Before u adjudge and assign a coys cash position as benefit to equityholders, u MUST;

1) rake off the coys debt position, particularly those of the near term(current liabilities in view)
2) Understand how that cash came about and how it is been put to use(cash flow activities in view)

On point 1, while Guinness YtD Cash position printed an improvement to approx N18.76B, over 70% of that figure @ circa N13.27B is a cash proportion upon near term L&B.
...so actual accrued cash benefit to equityholders is approx N5.48B and not N18.75B.
Another pivotal input that will give u a guide is to look at the coys quick ratio and compare it to that of its industrial peers. Guinness has now recorded a back to back(QoQ in view) negative NWC, with a quick ratio of 0.5x. ...the interpretation of this is that for every N1 liability in the books of Guiness, the company can only afford 50k from its readily available cash/asset to offset it.(the cash u so speak highly of)
Put differently, Guinness is currently insolvent !!
To add credence to this fact is the coys CLCR.

On point 2, the cash had come from the high print in OCF, an offset of a surge in trade and other receivables.
Some months ago, management guided that it will consider tightening credit terms by ending its contract with some of its distributors and where necessary, collect any returned goods, as part of efforts to sought out working capital challenges.(see the uptick in inventory)
This has helped improve the change in WC. ...which is key.
However, debt obligations remains a course of great concern.

From a surrounding risk perspective, the company will need to do a bit more(than its peers) to erk out more earnings from its current WC given the growing contracting margin it faces with high cost input.
Guinness will need to battle more with cost following the 1,430bps increment in excise duty to N200/litre on spirits(beginning June 2020) which unfortunately, constitutes(together with wine) a big weight of revenue build for the coy. The govt currently taxes N150/litre on wine(excise duty).
I dare say that there's an urgent need to seek to innovate around its product lines to better increase penetration while seeking effective channels to optimize cost.

Let me let u in on a few other worries;
Guinness' current EFIR of over 40% is not good at all. The coy is highly dependent on external sources of cash(debt) to fund its operations.
Elsewhere, there are a few financial indicators that infers that the coy might be coming for ur money soon. ...or seek to raise more funds from other sources.(CBR in view)
It actually needs cash.

Using a fine blend of an appropriate valuation model that discounts surrounding risk attaching an appreciable risk premium, my FVE pegs @ N12.70

Disclosure: This is stating matters from a strictly fundamental perspective. ...the coys TA might be saying something different.
NOT to be viewed as any sought of recommendation. Due diligence still applies as always.

What to do?
Pls follow ur instinct.

Selah

Bonanza no just show today......

Can anyone explain the swing in Change in current trade and other receivables?

PETERiCHY:


And you claim not to see the N18.7Billion pile of cash they are currently sitting on compared to the N4.9B they had 3months ago

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

Guinness just did more than double negative in quarter to quarter EPS comparision.

Guinness is struggling now. Investors beware. Share price may still go up , but no more for long term investors.

For cash, it shows that the company has made changes to policy on trade receivable which contributed the higest to cash.

meine:


Just some questions for Guinness investors

Is Guinness not in the same Sector with Nigerian Breweries?
Is Guinness the only company affected by the excise duty?
Guinness may be sitting on a lot of Cash but we know thats not Guinness primary function, its function is to make that cash sweat and work hard for investors.

Guinness is not doing well right now so investors should trade with caution. From a Loss Per share of 17kobo in Q1 2019 to Loss per share of 38kobo in Q1 2020.

This doesnt mean the company cant turn around its fortune if it gets better managers. I see a lot of inefficiencies in Guinness, If i am buying right now ,I will buy as a long term investment.

onegentleguy:
On Guinness...
I wonder how some of u interpret financial statements.
...there is need to learn how to read between the line, extrapolate figures from a collection of key financial indicators/determinants before drawing conclusions.

For those talking about the coys current cash position, hear this;
Before u adjudge and assign a coys cash position as benefit to equityholders, u MUST;

1) rake off the coys debt position, particularly those of the near term(current liabilities in view)
2) Understand how that cash came about and how it is been put to use(cash flow activities in view)

On point 1, while Guinness YtD Cash position printed an improvement to approx N18.76B, over 70% of that figure @ circa N13.27B is a cash proportion from near term L&B.
...so actual accrued cash benefit to equityholders is approx N5.48B and not N18.75B.
One pivotal input that will give u a guide is to look at the coys quick ratio and compare it to that of its industrial peers. Guinness has now recorded a back to back(QoQ in view) negative NWC, with a quick ratio of 0.5x. ...the interpretation of this is that for every N1 liability in the books of Guiness, the company can only afford 50k from its readily available cash/asset to offset it.(the cash u so speak highly of)
Put differently, Guinness is currently insolvent !!
To add credence to this fact is the coys CLCR.

On point 2, the cash had come from the high print in OCF, an offset of a surge in trade and other receivables.
Some months ago, management guided that it will consider tightening credit terms by ending its contract with some of its distributors and where necessary, collect any returned goods, as part of efforts to sought out working capital challenges.(see uptick in inventory)
This has helped improve the change in WC. ...which is key.
However, debt obligations remains a course of great concern.

From a surrounding risk perspective, the company will need to do a bit more(than its peers) to erk out more earnings from its current WC given the growing contracting margin it faces from high cost input.
Guinness will need to battle more with cost following the 1,430bps increment in excise duty to N200/litre on spirits(beginning June 2020) which unfortunately, constitutes(together with wine) a big weight of revenue build for the coy. The govt currenty taxes N150/litre on wine(excise duty).
I dare say that there's an urgent need to seek to innovate around its product lines to better increase penetration while seeking effective channels to optimize cost.

Let me let u in on a few other worries;
Guinness' current EFIR of over 40% is not good at all. The coy is highly dependent on external sources of cash(debt) to fund its operations.
Elsewhere, there are a few indicators that infers that the coy might be coming for ur money soon. ...or seek to raise more funds from other sources. It actually needs cash.

Using a fine blend of an appropriate valuation model that discounts surrounding risk attaching an appreciable risk premium, my FVE pegs @ N12.70

Disclosure: This is stating matters from a strictly fundamental perspective. ...the coys TA might be saying something different.
NOT to be viewed as any sought of recommendation. Due diligence still applies as always.

What to do?
Pls follow ur instinct.

Selah

Great expository boss

onegentleguy:
On Guinness...
I wonder how some of u interpret financial statements.
...there is need to learn how to read between the line, extrapolate figures from a collection of key financial indicators/determinants before drawing conclusions.
That coy is struggling. ...earnings are draining and it does appear that a would-be point of inflection is still a bit far away.

For those talking about the coys current cash position, hear this;
Before u adjudge and assign a coys cash position as benefit to equityholders, u MUST;

1) rake off the coys debt position, particularly those of the near term(current liabilities in view)
2) Understand how that cash came about and how it is been put to use(cash flow activities in view)

On point 1, while Guinness YtD Cash position printed an improvement to approx N18.76B, over 70% of that figure @ circa N13.27B is a cash proportion upon near term L&B.
...so actual accrued cash benefit to equityholders is approx N5.48B and not N18.75B.
One pivotal input that will give u a guide is to look at the coys quick ratio and compare it to that of its industrial peers. Guinness has now recorded a back to back(QoQ in view) negative NWC, with a quick ratio of 0.5x. ...the interpretation of this is that for every N1 liability in the books of Guiness, the company can only afford 50k from its readily available cash/asset to offset it.(the cash u so speak highly of)
Put differently, Guinness is currently insolvent !!
To add credence to this fact is the coys CLCR.

On point 2, the cash had come from the high print in OCF, an offset of a surge in trade and other receivables.
Some months ago, management guided that it will consider tightening credit terms by ending its contract with some of its distributors and where necessary, collect any returned goods, as part of efforts to sought out working capital challenges.(see the uptick in inventory)
This has helped improve the change in WC. ...which is key.
However, debt obligations remains a course of great concern.

From a surrounding risk perspective, the company will need to do a bit more(than its peers) to erk out more earnings from its current WC given the growing contracting margin it faces with high cost input.
Guinness will need to battle more with cost following the 1,430bps increment in excise duty to N200/litre on spirits(beginning June 2020) which unfortunately, constitutes(together with wine) a big weight of revenue build for the coy. The govt currenty taxes N150/litre on wine(excise duty).
I dare say that there's an urgent need to seek to innovate around its product lines to better increase penetration while seeking effective channels to optimize cost.

Let me let u in on a few other worries;
Guinness' current EFIR of over 40% is not good at all. The coy is highly dependent on external sources of cash(debt) to fund its operations.
Elsewhere, there are a few indicators that infers that the coy might be coming for ur money soon. ...or seek to raise more funds from other sources.(CBR in view)
It actually needs cash.

Using a fine blend of an appropriate valuation model that discounts surrounding risk attaching an appreciable risk premium, my FVE pegs @ N12.70

Disclosure: This is stating matters from a strictly fundamental perspective. ...the coys TA might be saying something different.
NOT to be viewed as any sought of recommendation. Due diligence still applies as always.

What to do?
Pls follow ur instinct.

Selah

lexy2lexy:
Can anyone explain the swing in Change in current trade and other receivables?

Mentioned it above.(see part in bold)
In retrospect, as management ended its contract with some key distributors, they(the distributors) paid down on their debt obligations which then reflected in the sharp growth in receivables for Guinness.
If u understand that line, then u'd know that the improvement therein is more like a one-off growth, and so may not be sustainable.
Again, the tightening of credit terms that came with it might have been unfavourable for the distributors hence the need to return unpaid/uncleared goods, which resulted to the rise in inventory.

Why did Guinness seek this route, u may ask?
The company has been battling with low receivables turnover ratio with more revenues awaiting receipt(higher ACP in view) after a combination of weaker purchasing power given the preference for lower price points amidst stiffer competition, depressed sales penetration from lower appealing product brands and higher cost input, execebated the challenges in WC. ...hence, the need to tackle it head on.
Though management also did try to improve on a few other lines. ...however the concerns at present, still outweighs the inherent benefits that could be derived therein(asset pricing from risk-reward peg in view)

The likes of PZ and most recently UNILEVER have also had to tour a similar route in recent past.
Guiness could have sought the route of longer repayment period, but the challenge with WC also came with a high running near term debt(unlike say UNILEVER), so management(guiness) had little option in front of them.
The coy still needs cash.

...it is well.

MorganCapital just a send a mail of Sell recommendation for DANGCEM and MTN, Is there anything happening to those coys.?

onegentleguy:
On Guinness...
I wonder how some of u interpret financial statements.
...there is need to learn how to read between the line, extrapolate figures from a collection of key financial indicators/determinants before drawing conclusions.

For those talking about the coys current cash position, hear this;
Before u adjudge and assign a coys cash position as benefit to equityholders, u MUST;

1) rake off the coys debt position, particularly those of the near term(current liabilities in view)
2) Understand how that cash came about and how it is been put to use(cash flow activities in view)

On point 1, while Guinness YtD Cash position printed an improvement to approx N18.76B, over 70% of that figure @ circa N13.27B is a cash proportion from near term L&B.
...so actual accrued cash benefit to equityholders is approx N5.48B and not N18.75B.
One pivotal input that will give u a guide is to look at the coys quick ratio and compare it to that of its industrial peers. Guinness has now recorded a back to back(QoQ in view) negative NWC, with a quick ratio of 0.5x. ...the interpretation of this is that for every N1 liability in the books of Guiness, the company can only afford 50k from its readily available cash/asset to offset it.(the cash u so speak highly of)
Put differently, Guinness is currently insolvent !!
.............

Selah

The bold is it.

FCMB currently at 2.44, chai. Ekumarket o.