Princkez:
who believed AFRIPRUD will do bonus issues

I didn't believe they will do Interim..
Mbok , make Tony do UBA N1.20 plus 1 for 1 bonus 😁😁😁

All is well oo.
.
.
.
Somebody say; "I got the power!!!"

Why was BUA Foods more efficient than Dangote Sugar in 2023? Dangote Sugar lost 170 billion in forex exchange, while BUA Foods lost only 80 billion. Based on rough calculations, if Dangote Sugar had been as efficient as BUA Foods (here I mean in terms of reduced cost of sales, DS would have had extra 100 billion or more), they would have ended the year with no losses or very minimal losses. Dangote Sugar should look to BUA Foods to learn from their playbook.

Princkez:
who believed AFRIPRUD will do bonus issues

Afri that I was busy loading at giveaway prices...

I'm just laughing

UNITY BANK will do BONUS in future...

DD when as E dey go

NNPC Confirms Fuel Scarcity In Lagos, FCT

https://www.nairaland.com/8166997/nnpc-confirms-fuel-scarcity-lagos

megawealth01:
NNPC Confirms Fuel Scarcity In Lagos, FCT

https://www.nairaland.com/8166997/nnpc-confirms-fuel-scarcity-lagos

I just hope it's not because of what's coming from August 1-10?

I am still betting on sugar despite the fact that the numbers are not looking great due to the huge forex losses.

According to BusinessDay, the price of sugar has more than doubled, so I expect the first half of the year (H1) to be positive; if not, that's it for me.

DS has been investing heavily in a line item called biological assets, which is now a whopping 14 billion. It better be what I'm thinking, as they need to be more reliant on local raw materials.

Let it not be that they are just valued based on being part of the Dangote ecosystem, like Transcorp Hotels is with Tony, because when it falls, there won't be anything to hold on to LOL.

https :// businessday. ng/agriculture/article/nigerias-average-sugar-price-hits-5-year-high/

You compared ONE part of DangoteFoods with all FIVE parts of BuaFoods.
The fact that the margin was not up to 1:3 says a lot...

May I also add that the unification of BUAFoods made them MORE efficient. I expect same when DangoteFoods eventually floats.

ositadima1:
Why was BUA Foods more efficient than Dangote Sugar in 2023? Dangote Sugar lost 170 billion in forex exchange, while BUA Foods lost only 80 billion. Based on rough calculations, if Dangote Sugar had been as efficient as BUA Foods (here I mean in terms of reduced cost of sales, DS would have had extra 100 billion or more), they would have ended the year with no losses or very minimal losses. Dangote Sugar should look to BUA Foods to learn from their playbook.

KarlTom:
You compared ONE part of DangoteFoods with all FIVE parts of BuaFoods.
The fact that the margin was not up to 1:3 says a lot...

May I also add that the unification of BUA made them MORE efficient. I expect same when DangoteFoods eventually floats.

If you look closely, my comparison is based on efficiency since they are both in the same space. From your perspective, DS has performed much worse, with only sugar having a bigger cost of sales compared to a whole conglomerate of products.

Though, DS is significantly larger than BUA's sugar sector.

Why do you think the merger alone will make it more efficient? They are still individual products made at different plants.

Look at my post again and see that the difference in efficiency is almost twice as much.

megawealth01:


I just hope it's not because of what's coming from August 1-10?

Most likely.

Fact remains that BF will definitely be more effective. If we can get the data, we will discover that Bua Sugar was not as effective as a seperate unit.
At the bolded, there are a lot of factors:
1. Reduction in repetition and redundancy.
2. DS is implementing backward integration. This will reduce FX losses/dependance.
3. The cost of sales will definitely reduce mainly via wages and logistics.
4. etc

I am speaking from a FMCG perspective...

ositadima1:


If you look closely, my comparison is based on efficiency since they are both in the same space. From your perspective, DS has performed much worse, with only sugar having a bigger cost of sales compared to a whole conglomerate of products.

Though, DS is significantly larger than BUA's sugar sector.

Why do you think the merger alone will make it more efficient? They are still individual products made at different plants.

Look at my post again and see that the difference in efficiency is almost twice as much.

Who else noticed FOte, who rarely posts on X, has posted four tweets on Dangote/Refinery in the last 6days.

I have a strong feeling that he is a 'major' shareholder in the refinery...

KarlTom:
Who else noticed FOte, who rarely posts on X, has posted four tweets on Dangote/Refinery in the last 6days.

I have a strong feeling that he is a 'major' shareholder in the refinery...

Yes he is invested in the refinery but can't say the percentage

KarlTom:
Fact remains that BF will definitely be more effective. If we can get the data, we will discover that Bua Sugar was not as effective as a seperate unit.
At the bolded, there are a lot of factors:
1. Reduction in repetition and redundancy.
2. DS is implementing backward integration. This will reduce FX losses/dependance.
3. The cost of sales will definitely reduce mainly via wages and logistics.
4. etc

I am speaking from a FMCG perspective...

Technically, point 2 shouldn't be on the list. Merger or not, backward integration has been on DS's radar for a long time. I think it relates to the line item for biological assets, which are now worth approximately 14 billion.

The rest remains to be seen regarding how the merger alone will double current efficiency.

Meerahbel:
Most likely.

Nawaoh

ositadima1:


Technically, point 2 shouldn't be on the list. Merger or not, backward integration has been on DS's radar for a long time. I think it relates to the line item for biological assets, which are now worth approximately 14 billion.

The rest remains to be seen regarding how the merger alone will double current efficiency.

The backward integration is the game changer for sugar.And alhaji said in the next 4 yrs they won't be importing raw sugar. The company will be fully home grown business. 14 billion in biological asset is huge..Sugar. I bided at initial public offer for 10k units and was given only 3k plus unit then.Sugar follow for my retirement stock even as they no pay dividend for the first time last yr

I have pencilled down 7 stock as my retirement stock mostly because of dividend. As I rebalance my portfolio from loot from other stocks over the yrs I will be increasing them

Prophet this is the last time I will be asking for the stockpick after today I no go ask for it again oooooo

Streetinvestor2:
The backward integration is the game changer for sugar.And alhaji said in the next 4 yrs they won't be importing raw sugar. The company will be fully home grown business. 14 billion in biological asset is huge..Sugar I bided at initial public offer for 10k units and was given only 3k plus unit then.Sugar follow for my retirement stock even as they no pay dividend for the first time last yr

I have pencilled down 7 stock as my retirement stock mostly because of dividend. As I rebalance my portfolio from loot from other stocks over the yrs I will be increasing them

Description of Biological Assets (Note 17 of 2023 Financial Reports)

Biological assets consist of growing cane, which is expected to be harvested as agricultural produce for sugar production. These assets have been measured at fair value less the cost to sell. As of December 31, 2023, the group has a total of 8,283 hectares of growing cane (2022: 8,092 hectares).

Yield Estimation and Sugar Production Potential

The yield of sugarcane varies significantly based on factors like soil quality, climate, and farming practices. We can make a rough estimate using the following assumptions:

Average yield: Approximately 60-100 tons of sugarcane per hectare per year
Given area: 8,283 hectares
Conservative estimate: 70 tons per hectare

This results in:

8,283 hectares times 70 tons/hectare = 579,810 tons of sugarcane per year

The amount of sugar produced from sugarcane also varies, but on average:

1 ton of sugarcane yields about 100-110 kg of sugar

From our estimated yield:

579,810 tons times 100 kg/ton = 57,981,000 kg or about 58,000 tons of sugar

Future Independence Projection

Achieving full independence in sugar production will take much more than four years. The Dangote Refinery has an installed capacity of 1.44 million tonnes per year, would require about 24 times its current (8,283 hectares) size.

Based on the balance sheet, the value of the biological assets increased from 6.9 billion to 14.4 billion while the land area increased from 8,092 hectares to 8,283 hectares. Acquiring an additional 191 hectares likely cost around 7.5 billion, indicating that acquiring sufficient land to meet the refinery's capacity would require approximately 7 trillion naira (or 336 billion, ok i am getting conflicting numbers and i am sleepy too ).

In conclusion, substantial investment and expansion are needed to achieve the desired production capacity.


Note that I used help of Claude to make this assumptions.

Zagee:
All is well oo.
.
.
.
Somebody say; "I got the power!!!"

How much? 😁

ositadima1:
Why was BUA Foods more efficient than Dangote Sugar in 2023? Dangote Sugar lost 170 billion in forex exchange, while BUA Foods lost only 80 billion. Based on rough calculations, if Dangote Sugar had been as efficient as BUA Foods (here I mean in terms of reduced cost of sales, DS would have had extra 100 billion or more), they would have ended the year with no losses or very minimal losses. Dangote Sugar should look to BUA Foods to learn from their playbook.

Consolidated Metrics Comparison (Dangote Sugar vs BUA Foods), 2023:

Return on Equity (ROE): -93.08% vs 42.78%
Return on Assets (ROA): -12.28% vs 10.47%
Net Profit Margin: -16.71% vs 15.37%
Current Ratio: 0.77 vs 0.91
Quick Ratio: 0.68 vs 0.76
FCFE (in '000 Naira): 94,498,754 vs 216,089,523

Now, let's consider scenarios without forex losses for both companies:

Dangote Sugar's forex loss: 148,328,367 ('000 Naira) (my previous 170 billion was wrong)
Adjusted Net Income: 74,568,059 ('000 Naira)

BUA Foods' forex loss: 81,864,676 ('000 Naira)
Adjusted Net Income: 193,962,173 ('000 Naira)

Adjusted Metrics (without forex losses) - Dangote Sugar vs BUA Foods:

Return on Equity (ROE): 94.10% vs 74.01%
Return on Assets (ROA): 12.41% vs 18.12%
Net Profit Margin: 16.89% vs 26.59%
Current Ratio: 0.77 vs 0.91 (unchanged)
Quick Ratio: 0.68 vs 0.76 (unchanged)
Adjusted FCFE (in '000 Naira): 242,827,121 vs 297,954,199

Analysis of Adjusted Scenarios:

1. Profitability: Without forex losses, both companies show strong profitability. Dangote Sugar's performance improves dramatically, with its ROE even surpassing BUA Foods'. BUA Foods maintains excellent profitability ratios, with a higher ROA and Net Profit Margin.

2. Liquidity: Liquidity ratios remain unchanged as they are not directly affected by the forex losses.

3. FCFE: Both companies show significantly improved FCFE without forex losses. Dangote Sugar's FCFE increases by about 157%, while BUA Foods' FCFE increases by about 38%.

Key Observations:

1. Forex losses had a substantial impact on both companies, but the effect was more pronounced for Dangote Sugar.

2. Without forex losses, both companies demonstrate strong profitability, with Dangote Sugar showing a remarkable turnaround.

3. BUA Foods maintains a higher ROA and Net Profit Margin even after adjustments, indicating potentially better operational efficiency.

4. Liquidity remains a concern for both companies, with ratios below 1, suggesting potential challenges in meeting short-term obligations.

5. The adjusted FCFE for both companies is significantly higher, indicating strong cash generation capabilities when forex impacts are removed.

6. BUA Foods still generates higher FCFE than Dangote Sugar in the adjusted scenario, but the gap narrows considerably.

Conclusion:
When forex losses are excluded, both Dangote Sugar and BUA Foods demonstrate strong financial performance. The adjusted figures reveal that both companies have solid underlying operations. BUA Foods still maintains an edge in terms of operational efficiency and cash generation. The forex losses highlight the significant impact of macroeconomic factors on these companies' financial results, emphasizing the need for robust forex risk management strategies.

ositadima1:



Consolidated Metrics Comparison (Dangote Sugar vs BUA Foods), 2023:

Return on Equity (ROE): -93.08% vs 42.78%
Return on Assets (ROA): -12.28% vs 10.47%
Net Profit Margin: -16.71% vs 15.37%
Current Ratio: 0.77 vs 0.91
Quick Ratio: 0.68 vs 0.76
FCFE (in '000 Naira): 94,498,754 vs 216,089,523

Now, let's consider scenarios without forex losses for both companies:

Dangote Sugar's forex loss: 148,328,367 ('000 Naira) (my previous 170 billion was wrong)
Adjusted Net Income: 74,568,059 ('000 Naira)

BUA Foods' forex loss: 81,864,676 ('000 Naira)
Adjusted Net Income: 193,962,173 ('000 Naira)

Adjusted Metrics (without forex losses) - Dangote Sugar vs BUA Foods:

Return on Equity (ROE): 94.10% vs 74.01%
Return on Assets (ROA): 12.41% vs 18.12%
Net Profit Margin: 16.89% vs 26.59%
Current Ratio: 0.77 vs 0.91 (unchanged)
Quick Ratio: 0.68 vs 0.76 (unchanged)
Adjusted FCFE (in '000 Naira): 242,827,121 vs 297,954,199

Analysis of Adjusted Scenarios:

1. Profitability: Without forex losses, both companies show strong profitability. Dangote Sugar's performance improves dramatically, with its ROE even surpassing BUA Foods'. BUA Foods maintains excellent profitability ratios, with a higher ROA and Net Profit Margin.

2. Liquidity: Liquidity ratios remain unchanged as they are not directly affected by the forex losses.

3. FCFE: Both companies show significantly improved FCFE without forex losses. Dangote Sugar's FCFE increases by about 157%, while BUA Foods' FCFE increases by about 38%.

Key Observations:

1. Forex losses had a substantial impact on both companies, but the effect was more pronounced for Dangote Sugar.

2. Without forex losses, both companies demonstrate strong profitability, with Dangote Sugar showing a remarkable turnaround.

3. BUA Foods maintains a higher ROA and Net Profit Margin even after adjustments, indicating potentially better operational efficiency.

4. Liquidity remains a concern for both companies, with ratios below 1, suggesting potential challenges in meeting short-term obligations.

5. The adjusted FCFE for both companies is significantly higher, indicating strong cash generation capabilities when forex impacts are removed.

6. BUA Foods still generates higher FCFE than Dangote Sugar in the adjusted scenario, but the gap narrows considerably.

Conclusion:
When forex losses are excluded, both Dangote Sugar and BUA Foods demonstrate strong financial performance. The adjusted figures reveal that both companies have solid underlying operations. BUA Foods still maintains an edge in terms of operational efficiency and cash generation. The forex losses highlight the significant impact of macroeconomic factors on these companies' financial results, emphasizing the need for robust forex risk management strategies.

Good morning sir,
You are a precious jewel to this great Family....
keep the good work going!
Happy Sunday YMCY56 😁😁😁

This detailed breakdown is appreciated.🌹
It confirmed my initial submission that DS (as a lone entity) is not far off from BF...

I maintain that DF will outdo BF.

ositadima1:



Consolidated Metrics Comparison (Dangote Sugar vs BUA Foods), 2023:

Return on Equity (ROE): -93.08% vs 42.78%
Return on Assets (ROA): -12.28% vs 10.47%
Net Profit Margin: -16.71% vs 15.37%
Current Ratio: 0.77 vs 0.91
Quick Ratio: 0.68 vs 0.76
FCFE (in '000 Naira): 94,498,754 vs 216,089,523

Now, let's consider scenarios without forex losses for both companies:

Dangote Sugar's forex loss: 148,328,367 ('000 Naira) (my previous 170 billion was wrong)
Adjusted Net Income: 74,568,059 ('000 Naira)

BUA Foods' forex loss: 81,864,676 ('000 Naira)
Adjusted Net Income: 193,962,173 ('000 Naira)

Adjusted Metrics (without forex losses) - Dangote Sugar vs BUA Foods:

Return on Equity (ROE): 94.10% vs 74.01%
Return on Assets (ROA): 12.41% vs 18.12%
Net Profit Margin: 16.89% vs 26.59%
Current Ratio: 0.77 vs 0.91 (unchanged)
Quick Ratio: 0.68 vs 0.76 (unchanged)
Adjusted FCFE (in '000 Naira): 242,827,121 vs 297,954,199

Analysis of Adjusted Scenarios:

1. Profitability: Without forex losses, both companies show strong profitability. Dangote Sugar's performance improves dramatically, with its ROE even surpassing BUA Foods'. BUA Foods maintains excellent profitability ratios, with a higher ROA and Net Profit Margin.

2. Liquidity: Liquidity ratios remain unchanged as they are not directly affected by the forex losses.

3. FCFE: Both companies show significantly improved FCFE without forex losses. Dangote Sugar's FCFE increases by about 157%, while BUA Foods' FCFE increases by about 38%.

Key Observations:

1. Forex losses had a substantial impact on both companies, but the effect was more pronounced for Dangote Sugar.

2. Without forex losses, both companies demonstrate strong profitability, with Dangote Sugar showing a remarkable turnaround.

3. BUA Foods maintains a higher ROA and Net Profit Margin even after adjustments, indicating potentially better operational efficiency.

4. Liquidity remains a concern for both companies, with ratios below 1, suggesting potential challenges in meeting short-term obligations.

5. The adjusted FCFE for both companies is significantly higher, indicating strong cash generation capabilities when forex impacts are removed.

6. BUA Foods still generates higher FCFE than Dangote Sugar in the adjusted scenario, but the gap narrows considerably.

Conclusion:
When forex losses are excluded, both Dangote Sugar and BUA Foods demonstrate strong financial performance. The adjusted figures reveal that both companies have solid underlying operations. BUA Foods still maintains an edge in terms of operational efficiency and cash generation. The forex losses highlight the significant impact of macroeconomic factors on these companies' financial results, emphasizing the need for robust forex risk management strategies.

KarlTom:
This detailed breakdown is appreciated.🌹
It confirmed my initial submission that DS (as a lone entity) is not far off from BF...

I maintain that DF will outdo BF.

Bua Foods' revenue was 729 billion, while Dangote Sugar's was 440 billion and NASCON's was 80 billion. Given that rice was the third segment, would you expect 200 billion from rice alone? Note that Bua also has flour, which contributes to their pasta variety.

But... , this is not my main point; I was focusing on efficiency—using resources efficiently while keeping costs low. In 2023, Bua performed much better. If Dangote Sugar had operated with the same efficiency as Bua, it would have felt the forex impact much less (especially on share holders). As you have seen, I like to base my reasoning on numbers, even though I may not always get it right.

ositadima1:



Bua Foods' revenue was 729 billion, while Dangote Sugar's was 440 billion and NASCON's was 80 billion. Given that rice was the third segment, would you expect 200 billion from rice alone? Note that Bua also has flour, which contributes to their pasta variety.

But... , this is not my main point; I was focusing on efficiency—using resources efficiently while keeping costs low. In 2023, Bua performed much better. If Dangote Sugar had operated with the same efficiency as Bua, it would have felt the forex impact much less (especially on share holders). As you have seen, I like to base my reasoning on numbers, even though I may not always get it right.

If rice will not bring above sugar revenue..Then how did alhaji arrive to the ratio of 1 rice is equivalent to 11 sugar.This was one of what I disagree in the proposed marger even when rice was not available in the market .I saw it as a way alhaji wanted to play game to accumulate more sugar to himself and few partners. I hope the eventually marger the ratio would have changed or rice should equally bring something to justify its position.....I hate wayo

Maltese operation, Ras Hansir Oil, not owned by OANDO; Does not even exist, says OANDO.

https://proshare.co/articles/maltese-oil-storage-blending-plant-oando-plc-issues-statement-denying-ownership?menu=Business&classification=Read&category=Investments

zendi:
Maltese operation, Ras Hansir Oil, not owned by OANDO; Does not even exist, says OANDO.

https://proshare.co/articles/maltese-oil-storage-blending-plant-oando-plc-issues-statement-denying-ownership?menu=Business&classification=Read&category=Investments

Well, we'll look in the Panama Papers to see.. Senior Cowboyz are too slippery.

Hello all, how do you think the Banks' recapitalization exercise will affect Insurance stocks? Do the Insurance stocks stand to benefit or the other way round. Thank you.

ositadima1:
I think Zenithbank is worth more than 54 naira (with this current OS), based on my other personal valuation using dividend discount method with Monte Carlo simulation (my seed dividend was 4 naira). The simulation ranged between 54 and 105 naira.

Do your own estimation and let me know what your target is as well.

Bro, please did you upload the FY reports of zenith from 2020 to 2023 into Claudia to get this comprehensive report?
I am using Claudia now too but my report is not as comprehensive as yours

What's happening with mutual benefit and regency alliance What's holding up their results

Oando, Thank God am in the bus 🚌

zendi:
Maltese operation, Ras Hansir Oil, not owned by OANDO; Does not even exist, says OANDO.

https://proshare.co/articles/maltese-oil-storage-blending-plant-oando-plc-issues-statement-denying-ownership?menu=Business&classification=Read&category=Investments

They said Oando used the wrong name to serch ooo...

https://x.com/FinPlanKaluAja1/status/1817300909099303052?s=19