@Rob-roy.    @Rob-roy   @Rob-roy

Hi sir.

Please tell me where you read the Zenith Securities' analysis on BAGCO. . .

The reason I ask is because I wonder if its from Zenith Securities' website.They are my brokers yet they haven't upgraded their research window for a long while now.Or am I using the tools on the site incorrectly?.

@Frankiriri
Hello sir.
Perhaps you cld be of help,seeing as you work in Zenith Bank.Thanks.

[/quote][quote author=toyibanj link=topic=31554.msg1693976#msg1693976 date=1195427085]
@Pumping777
Please explain how you came about 14.1B shares. The present outstanding shares is a mystery. On nigeriansecurities 11.4B,IBTC 8B, meristem 6.4B. How can we analyse stocks when we don't have all the info. Welcome to the NSE.
One thing we know for sure is they applied for 5B(assuming 25% oversubscription) budget 6.25B.
Inputs welcome.

You can always analyze any stock if you take time to get the facts (or ask your stockbroker in a nice way ). The NSE is not always that bad. In this case, we have all the info we need and more.

14.1B is projected PAT and not outstanding shares. The number of outstanding shares I am using is 14.29B after factoring in 25% over-subscription.

Really, there was nothing mysterious about the outstanding shares of Bank PHB. They gave bonus of 1 for 4 this year and before that the number of shares outstanding was 6.435B. You can do the numbers.

You see, the numbers you gave above of 8B and 6.4B are both correct. Just at different times. One before bonus scrips and the other one after. I've made mistakes with outstanding number of shares with many stocks, but Bank PHB was never an issue.

Anyway, I circulated the prospectus on this thread. If you go back in the thread you will find it. That is what I used for the analysis. Find an extract below from the prospectus.
---------
NOTE
Earnings per share (fully diluted) are based on 13,043,782,000 ordinary shares of
50k each in 2008, 2009 and 2010. Earnings per share (weighted) are based on
9,739,403,000 weighted ordinary shares of 50k each in 2008 and 13,043,782,000
ordinary shares of 50k each being post offer shares expected to be in issue) in 2009
and 2010. Dividends per share are based on 13,043,782,000 ordinary shares of 50k
each in 2008, 2009 and 2010.
------

@ Krrush

Here is the Bagco analysis

http://www.proshareng.com/blog/?p=242

Naijadr:

Thanks bro for the info! I see they are based out of NYC, I like the aggressive funds making 50% from July till now. Def a great way for diversification outside of the stock market. I see minimum is at $1,000 and that'll be increased to $5,000 in Dec, aaah wish I had the money for it now. Please keep it coming through I'm sure most peope here wont pay attention to this, but I like it o Please can I have more info also on the Chinese Yangtse funds, Thanks!
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Easimoni said the Bagco PO is the most expensive but I dont agree. Their forward PE is just 22 and this is for the year ending March 2008 which is just around the corner. Dangote flour had a higher PE than that. The money is to be used to pay off the debt so all that interest paid will become available to the shareholders.
I also think that comparing companies in different industries is like comparing apples and Carrots . Bagco should be compared to companies within its area of business.They have a stable market and thus cannot be compared with other somewhat more profitable but more risky investments.
So for me, as a conservative long term investor the stock represents a fair buy- especially now that the secondary market seems to be recovering from its bearish state.

@ Krush
Do ZSL a mail and ask to be placed on their research reports mailing list.
Once you are on their mailing list you will get all their reports as soon as they are released.

FatherOF2,

Thanks a lot man, Though your methiod of entry and exit is quite risky, I agree that the higher the risk, the higher your returns on investment. I also had an inkling about Access but I think it might get to about N24.

Currently looking for cash to buy now and wont exceed N19.00

Do you think N19.00 is a good price to buy Access .

Any info on the Oceanic certificates and First Bank Certificates.

need them urgently.

Thanks

Men! Na wa o for this thread! It's done almost 10 pages since my last log-in (last thurs). Would have to get myself a Thread Reading Robot (a la FOREX Trading robot) to catch up!

I humbly bow for u guys! 3 gbosas to you all both old and new. All responses greatly appreciated!

frankiriri:

Easimoni said the Bagco PO is the most expensive but I don't agree. Their forward PE is just 22 and this is for the year ending March 2008 which is just around the corner. Dangote flour had a higher PE than that. The money is to be used to pay off the debt so all that interest paid will become available to the shareholders.
I also think that comparing companies in different industries is like comparing apples and Carrots . Bagco should be compared to companies within its area of business.They have a stable market and thus cannot be compared with other somewhat more profitable but more risky investments.
So for me, as a conservative long term investor the stock represents a fair buy- especially now that the secondary market seems to be recovering from its bearish state.

You definitely have a point there.
Its a diff industry, a stable company, seemingly percieved lesser risk.
I just think they could have done much better with the pricing of the offer. (Yes i know its a great business, a great brand name but they dun plan to reward investors with a lot in terms of dividends)
According to the forecasts there's very little or no growth expected between 2009 and 2010.
The main diff is that dangote had more ambitous forecasts to nullify the huge premium (dint like the dangote offer though).

Zenith projects 6.66 in 7 months, thats a pe of 23 using 2010 forecast eps (some would call that a forward-forward-foward pe ).
This is definitely not a growth stock.
But it should be a profitable investment in any case, the question is matching the expected returns to individual investor's objectives.

Guys Here is the First Bank Allotment Schedule

Hope it comes in handy.

Guys Here is the First Bank Allotment Schedule

Hope it comes in handy.

Good news for Transcorp peeps this morning!!

First Bank and UBA planning to buy substantially into Transcorp to become major stakeholders and subsequently present directors to serve on the board etc

Hoping the coming of these two megabanks into Transcorp would positively and swiftly impact on the turnaround process(turnaround sha?   jumpstarting?   or whatever process) of Transcorp.

Happy investing esp this anticipated bullish week  

frankiriri:

Easimoni said the Bagco PO is the most expensive but I don't agree. Their forward PE is just 22 and this is for the year ending March 2008 which is just around the corner. Dangote flour had a higher PE than that. The money is to be used to pay off the debt so all that interest paid will become available to the shareholders.
I also think that comparing companies in different industries is like comparing apples and Carrots . Bagco should be compared to companies within its area of business.They have a stable market and thus cannot be compared with other somewhat more profitable but more risky investments.
So for me, as a conservative long term investor the stock represents a fair buy- especially now that the secondary market seems to be recovering from its bearish state.

Strongly believe that all this myriad of IPOs/POs would come out good in the long run 'cos of the expanding nature of our economy. The 'koko' is which of these IPOs/POs would come out good first b4 the others or would give the fastest ROI/Capital Growth Rate ASAP . That to me, should be the key parameter _{(in the midst of this avalanche of offers)} to any discerning IPO/PO investor. Hey, my opinion though!!

ololufemi:

FatherOF2,

Thanks a lot man, Though your methiod of entry and exit is quite risky, I agree that the higher the risk, the higher your returns on investment. I also had an inkling about Access but I think it might get to about N24.

Currently looking for cash to buy now and wont exceed N19.00

Do you think N19.00 is a good price to buy Access .

Any info on the Oceanic certificates and First Bank Certificates.

need them urgently.

Thanks

any reason why u think access will reach 24 naira in a month time?

@ FatherOF2
Which access bank result is coming in 1 or 2 weeks time, they have realesed thier year end result and even paid dividend, so what do u think will move the price to 22 naira?

@ Nairalanders

Good if true that 1st Bank and UBA to take substantial stakes in Transcorp.

Transcorp was always supposed to be a national project. It will help reduce the impact of the individual billion shares holders. That in itself will attract more investors who don't trust the original investors. Ideally these big boys and girls should gradually reduce their holdings.

The move to appoint the new directors by the banks that loaned the company money was bound to result in greater transparency and honesty.

Happy days round the corner.

Target for real joy in  the  share price will be around mid-2008, by my estimate.

Samstone4

Expecting a good result from them and this may be out this week.

Would get people taking positions in the short term and it would increase the number of bid for the share.

Me thinks it might do 30% before profit taking sets in

Heard that Capital Oil just bought Four vessels for the enhancement of their operations.No Nigerian company has ever bought such an amount before.Ths company might have more potential than thought.The stock seems scarce.How can i lay my hands on it.

ololufemi:

Expecting a good result from them and this may be out this week.

Would get people taking positions in the short term and it would increase the number of bid for the share.

Me thinks it might do 30% before profit taking sets in

@Ololufemi.Who is releasing their results this week?

Haba Capuchi, why you deyb attack father of 2

The result being expected is the quarter result. The guy knows what he's talking about and I agree with him

Haba na wah for you.

Anyway hope sey you don prepare money for Zenith Public Offer oh

Na Christmas present for all nairalanders.

Damouche, access Bank.

Its either by the end of this week or early next week

Buy Zenith, Buy Zenith, Buy Zenith

Banking in your best interest

Guys, Guarantee trust bank has taken a sharp turn upwards, over the past few days it has been gaining some good nairas. Does anybody know why?
I really dont wanna believe its all part of the recent bullish run, i smell a big rat.

White Lexi, I made this discovery early last week but some of our buddies on this thread insitted that I should stop creating a frenzy.

My crystal balls showed that a sudden and gradual bull run would occur for guaranttee. It may not appreciate by 5% now but when it does, it will be like that Bull festival in spain. El matador wont be able to catch the bull.

Other pointers for speculators are

Access, Oceanic, Diamond, Zenith and Dangote Sugar.

Mo loro yi so o

So so so ka gbo.

I don talk oh.

Thanks bro.

Hope you are gearing up for Zenith Bank offer

temmie10

Whats your take on Access for the short run

What about the gradual appreciation of GTB. Any news from the grapevine.

@Esimoni and other gurus,
My stock brocker advised me to buy any of the following:
Life stock
Nig cable and wire
GTB
Neimeth
Plz any info on these stocks, can any of them double within 6-12 months in terms of price appreciation. Do u know of any other one that has such potential?

You would be better off buying some Access, Diamond banks shares at current price, not above N19.00 oh

You'll get a return soon within 3 months timeframe

Access' numbers look good, Gtb's are not bad either.

But for short term, i am only looking at insurance right now: thr's simply nothing hotter!
they have opened 5% higher again this morning.
It seems common sense has prevailed over how one man (jimoh ibrahim) was throwing stones into the cog wheel of the capitalisation process.

I bet if Aiico knew that the money would be released this soon, they would have postponed their offer and get a better deal in the process.
Suddenly aiico's public offer at 2.2 naira looks like a solid bargain.

@shigidi(if you are out there)
I am not sure that raising all the funds through gdr is the best road for diamond bank o.
It could stiffle the potential for capital appreciation, jus look at gtb.
Havin said that, diamond's numbers are very good, its the gdr part that does not make too much short term sense.

Kingzy beware of the sockbroker.
The broker collects his fees whether you make a profit or not.

Do your analysis and decide.

I know a friend who bought some shares o his broker's recommendation and later realised that the broker wanted to offload the stocks.

Do your analysis.

GTB looks good now, Access and Diamond look okay.

With the insurance companies, thread softly, the bears would come to feast once the bulls are done chopping in te short term.

I do not think the bull run will last longer than this friday.

Cheers

Yes there is a good argument that the movement of insurance companies will be stunted in the short term,
However, don't you think that the moneys being released would impact these companies bottom lines and create avenues for even more exponential growth? i think this plane has taken off. Just think what mbenefits can do with 4 billion naira, cornerstone with 5 billion naira, need i go on?

I have had a look at Bank phb's prospectus and it is very well priced and definitely has my vote and money.

With Bank PHB, its cool to see one who agrees with me. I believe its fairly priced for short term and even better for longterm.

With regards to the insurance firms, I think they will invest most of it in other stocks that would bring returns in the short term s this would provide more earnings for them.

What I just envisage is that it is to early for those funds to be generting fundamental results. This bull in the insurance industry is an artificially created one and would soon fizzle out when profit taking sets in.

Remember that a lot of funds in this market are borrowed funds and once people get 20% to 25% profit, they prefer to bail out an move on to something next.

Let's wait and see what happens soon.

Today makes 15% for the insurance stocks.

A friend told me to buy GTB, thats its projected to rise to #45, how true is it? and any hints on how to calcute the projected price of a stock