jamace:

Investment is not for those who can not withstand a litle dip in their investment, that is why I talked about psychology. As an investor, you must be ready to accept losses while keeping your eyes on the gains. You must also have flexible plans so that if your immediate target is not met, you can either accept the loss by selling off and moving on or you can hold for long term. That is why it is advised that you should invest only money that you do not require immediately.

Let me start from the highlighted;I agree with you on that score

Then again,I maintain that nobody is infallible in issues like this,so we should excercise caution in investing rather that throwing all caution to the wind and swallow the quotation of one man;hook,line and sinker.
I have been a passive participant on the NSE for the better part of two decades and a very active participant for nearly fifteen years now,I've had my fair share of gains and losses,price peaking and price tanking(infact gains and losses are part and parcel of the whole stock thing),and from my experience,it's fair to say that no one knows it all.

My investment strategy is dual-pronged
Long term;which holds over 70% of stocks in my portfolio and CICO(the old timers on this thread will understand what I'm talking about);which holds 30%.When prices on the NSE started tanking in February/March last year,most of us on this thread believed it would only be for a short while,SOMEBODY EVEN QUOTED WARREN,that people should be greedy when others are afraid and afraid when others are gready,then fiam,off went some people(especially the newbies) with sundry buy mandates,it's obvious now that those that heeded that advise have now discovered that their spreadsheet portfolios have depreciated by nothing less than 50% since then.

BEN-:

Remember that Oceanic and Uba are being sold below N10 naira these are stocks that worth over 48 and 65 naira respectively last year. Investing in any of them will surely yield a very high income.

What figure are you using to calculate their present values, are you privy to these banks exposure to toxic debts that may affect their results later this year? My take is that cash you can not afford to loose do not take to NSE. Some of these same analists told us Oceanic was jackpot at N20.

Then again,I maintain that nobody is infallible in issues like this,so we should excercise caution in investing rather that throwing all caution to the wind and swallow the quotation of one man;hook,line and sinker.

I agree with you. However, if one has the necessary financial knowledge, the quotation can uplift your spirit and enhance your investment plans at the right time.

Guys! Guys! Guys!

From the foregoing, I deduce:

1. Investors do not really have monies that they want to lock up for 18 month.
2. Investors want an investment that will (atleast) not depreciate in value.
3. Investors know and agree that this is probably the best time to go into the market.

What dis means to me:

1. We need to form an investment club, so that with as little as 5K a month, guys can still take advantage of the down market as well as share risk with others.
2. We need to start investing in stocks with 0% downward risk (Stocks that will not go lower) like Gold Insurance, Regal insurance, Multiverse, etc. , these are all NGN0.50 i.e they are not going any lower than that. Pls note that this coys are companies that are doing well in their business.
3. We need to pull funds to play in real estate. Strategy: Pull funds, buy old house, Renovate, and sell the appartments in piece meal via a mortgage firm.

This is not the best time to go into Dangote Sugar. Why? The result will be out soon, From my estimates, the coy will post turnover of NGN83.65bn while profits will grow to NGN23.99bn. The coy paid NGN1.15 in 2007 with a 1 for 5 bonus. In 2008, it has paid NGN0.85 as interim (bearing in mind that the coy must have taken a hit during the FX ordeal in Nigeria and the new sugar refinery project in Algeria), I dont think the coy will be willing to pay so much cash out as dividends. What makes sense is a Bonus.

For Nigerian Breweries, First quarter will be good. Why? International prices of Sorrghum and Barley dropped in January February. This will lower Cost of Good sold, which will trickle down to increased profit. NB plc will continue to see resistance at NGN36-NGN37 for the medium term. Buy at NGN28 , exit at NGN35. , cool 25% upside.

Guinness is good coy, the stock is a good buy, but the upside potential, in my opinion is low. Why? My target price is NGN95.


I strongly hope that someone will not chop off my head with this things i just said, lol.

By the way, Banking stocks are not my game, There is soo much uncertainty about them. That is why i cover the REAL sector.

rasputinn:

I always grin when people just decide to quote Warren Buffet.Has he told you how much he has lost so far?
The guy is not infallible you know.Do you know how much GE has depreciated since Warren snak 3.5 billion USD into it at the onset of the Wall Street crash(when others were fearful and warren decided to be greedy)

a wise investor sees opportunities where others see challenges. you are counting his loses while he is busy counting his long term gains. recession is an opportunity for true investors (risk takers).

too bad i dont have that kind of buffets money i wld have owned alot of companies at the end of the crash.

It is good to be greedy when others are fearful but you have to be careful also. Before you invest in any company, you need to consider the fundamentals of the company, i.e. price earning ratio, past financial record, the board, the nature of business etc. You need to consider different factors before you decide to invest in any company. This is not the time to invest and expect to sell tomorrow. The market is for long term investors and not get rich quick investors. Do your home work well and invest wisely. Don't hand-pick stocks to buy. Do a thorough analysis first. Good luck. peeepventures@yahoo.com

smooooooth:


too bad i dont have that kind of buffets money i wld have owned alot of companies at the end of the crash.

Where would you have owned the companies? on the NYSE or the NSE,hope you know the difference between the two as you cannot say the same thing for both markets as per regulation and transparency.Dissent all you want,CAUTION remains the watchword when dealing with the NSE

This thread is really moving at a very slow pace,I do hope things will start looking up pretty soon so the gurus can return

Investing Willy-nilly in the NSE is at your own risk even with the "bottom out" prices. The confidence is not there. Look at what some money bags have been doing to prop up and crash prices a la Otedola vs Dangote feud? Only God knows how many books are being cooked in the financial sector. Even FG just decided to shun the market and damn the consequences. I say hold your funds until the dust settles. Cash is King at the moment.

I think most of these companies are way overvalued based on their fundamentals (looking at their EPS). so the downturn is actually correcting this anomaly

Theoritically a share price should be the present values of the expected or future dividends and dividends are usually driven by recurring income. When this value is higher than the current share price then it is advisable to invest because the share is undervalued so you expect the price to go up. The reverse is the case for overvalued stock.

candylips:

I think most of these companies are way overvalued based on their fundamentals (looking at their EPS). so the downturn is actually correcting this anomaly

Eh Candy lips, you still think at the current prices that theseshares are overvalued. I was thinking they are just at /below their intrinsic prices now.

This thread is really moving at a very slow pace,I do hope things will start looking up pretty soon so the gurus can return
[/

Most of the gurus have been shocked beyond words. They need time to recover

Eh Candy lips, you still think at the current prices that these shares are overvalued. I was thinking they are just at /below their intrinsic prices now.

I agree with you that most stocks on the NSE have bottomed. This is because most of them are neither showing a bearish nor bullish trend. I will advice those with money to get in now because soon (please don't ask me how soon) there is going to be a rush.

This thread is really moving at a very slow pace,I do hope things will start looking up pretty soon so the gurus can return

Most of the gurus have been shocked beyond words. They need time to recover .

Eh Candy lips, you still think at the current prices that these shares are overvalued. I was thinking they are just at /below their intrinsic prices now

.

I agree with you that most stocks on the NSE have bottomed. This is because most of them are neither showing a bearish nor bullish trend. I will advice those with money to get in now because soon (please don't ask me how soon) there is going to be a rush.

For stocks that are currently undervalued. You need to still check fundamentals particularly recurring income. The prices will only pick up if it is perceived that the company will be profitable going forward.

whats your pick on IEI and Mutual?

most of the stock market have crash worldwide including that of nigeria.but the difference is ours is just the drop in the price per share.Our companies are still solid.i have some maual that can guide in both up and down market.visit;www.nairaland.com/nigeria/topic-262973.0.html

peeps and zooms off

peeps and zooms off

Why naa?

do you see what i see?

most nigerian stocks have collapsed as many people cannot afford to remeber the huge
monney lost as it appears now.
this i must attribute to general global economic crisis.
however, we must keep struggling.

But i am not deteered as i am beginning to live beter from online stock investments.
i am ready to guide whoever would want to come with me.
i will expose this secret in my next post at:naijamakemoney..com

SEC confirms Al-Faki’s exit
By Udeme Ekwere
Published: Friday, 24 Apr 2009

The Director-General, Securities and Exchange Commission, Mr. Musa Al-Faki, has made known his intention to disengage from the services of the commission with effect from May 8, 2009.

A statement from the Commission on Thursday, said that the DG made his intention known at a board meeting held on Tuesday.

The statement signed by the Head, Media, SEC, Mr. Lanre Oloyi, disclosed that a letter indicating his intention had been presented to the Minister of Finance and copied to the chairman of the board of SEC.

It said, “By a letter dated 22 April, 2009, and copied to the Chairman of the Board of the Commission, the Honourable Minister of Finance accepted his disengagement notice and conveyed the President’s approval.

“In the letter, the Honourable Minister conveyed the appreciation of Mr. President and himself for the achievements and efforts of Musa Al-Faki during his tenure with the SEC and wished him success in his future endeavours.”

According to the statement, the Minister of Finance, Mr. Mansur Muktar, had given and order that the Executive Commissioner Operations, should take charge of the Commission pending the appointment of another DG.

“The Honourable Minister further directed that all disengagement formalities should be completed on or before the 8 of May, 2009 and that Musa Al-Faki should handover to the Executive Commissioner, Operations, until the appointment of a substantive Director-General,” it said.

Indications had emerged on Wednesday that Al-Faki was to proceed on an accumulated leave prior to his retirement.

It had been learnt that the DG had informed the minister that he was not interested in a second term in office following pressure from family members to quit.

The leave period was to be for four months, starting from the middle of May.

Sources close to the ministry indicated that the SEC DG’s five-year term would expire in October.

There have, however, been concerns that the Capital Market regulator had not stamped its authority on the capital market that had been hit by frequent cases of sharp practices and insider abuse.

Of particular concern was the handling of the AP share price manipulation by the Nigerian Stock Exchange and SEC.

The Punch: SEC confirms Al-Faki's exit.

[b]Comment:[/b]Is this a sign of good things to come?
__________________

Eterna Oil floats N8.6b hybrid offering
By Gbenga Agbana & Taiwo Hassan

DESPITE the lull in activities in the stock exchange market currently, Eterna Oil Plc has concluded arrangements to raise about N8.6 billion from the primary market through a hybrid issue packaged by Radix Capital Partners and Meristem Securities Limited as issuing houses.

Specifically, the hybrid offering, which opens between April 14 and 30, involves an offer for subscription of 287 million ordinary shares of 50 kobo each at N11.50 per share and a rights issue of 533 million ordinary shares of 50 kobo each at N9.95 per share.

According to the prospectus, the offer is being undertaken to secure the growth of the company by providing the capital required for producing key distributive facilities and upgrading existing key coastal and inland product storage terminals, upgrade existing lubricant plant, expand retail outlets, provide LPG/NG infrastructure and additional working capital.

Already, the public offering has been underwritten by 80 per cent on firm basis by the joint issuing houses in Radix Capital Partners Limited and Meristem Securities Limited.

Speaking at the completion board meeting held yesterday, in Lagos, the Managing Director of Radix Capital Partners Limited, Mr. Biodun Dabiri said the company has the potentials to sell its own shares and give adequate return to shareholders.

Besides, he said the offer is being undertaken at this time to reassure investors that the Nigerian stock market is not that bad as the indices currently portrays.

Dabiri said: "We are excited about the offer. We need energy in every sphere of our daily life. The offer is being done at a meltdown price. The price in the secondary market is N26.68. So, it's done about 60 per cent discount. I encourage you shareholders to support the company.

"The public offer is 80 per cent underwritten, which shows there is nothing to be afraid of. It is attractive. It is our stimulus package for the market, because people have waited for the government to come to the rescue of the market. We have taken the bold step," he added.

Etema Oil was incorporated on January 13, 1989 as a private limited liability company under the name Etena Oil and Gas Limited.

The company became a limited company on November 4, 1997. It engages in the manufacturing and sales of lubricating oils, importation and bulk/retail sale of petroleum products, lubricants/fuels, natural gas distribution and marketing, LPG, offshore and inshore oil services and equipment supply services for the energy sector.

The company has a technical trading relationship with Castrol, a producer and marketer of synthetic and conventional motor oil and lubricant, through which the company blends and supplies Castrol market lubricants to the shipping industry.

Guardian Newspapers

Stock gurus in the House.
Please what is happening? I am not hearing of companies declaring FYE results, particularly those with FYE from September to December 2008. Abi, all de companies don drown for this economic meltdown?
Please, those with information should spread them to the rest of us.

Stock Market Posts Biggest Weekly Gain in Six Months

Buoyed by positive company results and renewed foreign interest in Nigerian equities, the stock market recorded its highest weekly gain in six months, rising 10 percent after five days of trading.
Share prices posted their steepest weekly gain in almost six months after United Bank for Africa Plc and Consolidated Hallmark Insurance Plc both announced increased earnings.
The market rally is coming on the back of efforts being made by stock broking firms to negotiate and restructure their exposure to banks that lent them margin loans for investment in stocks.
The All Share Index of the Nigerian Stock Exchange rose 3.7 percent yesterday to 23,516.06, bringing its advance in the past five days to 10 percent, the biggest weekly climb since November 14, 2008.
But the ASI has still slumped 25 percent this year, making it the world’s worst performing stock market.
The market is “beginning to claw back,” Matthew Pearson, an analyst at Renaissance Capital, a Russian investment firm with an office in Lagos, wrote in a note yesterday. “Outperformance is delivered to those companies that deliver the greatest transparency.”
UBA, Nigeria’s fourth-biggest lender by market value, advanced 62 kobo, or 5 percent, the maximum one-day gain allowed by the exchange, to N13.04, according to bourse data, for an increase of 22 percent in the past five days.
The bank, Thursday, announced an increase in its net income by 8 percent to N19.9 billion naira in the six months through March.
Consolidated Hallmark, a Lagos-based underwriter, also on Thursday reported that first-quarter profits had advanced by 45 percent. Its stock closed unchanged at N0.50 in yesterday’s trading.
Rencap is leading a pack of foreign investors showing renewed interest in Nigerian equities which have declined in value by several percentage points in the last year.
The investment bank, last month, raised the allocation of equities in its Nigerian portfolio to 30 percent from 10 percent.
Access Bank Plc, Diam-ond Bank Plc, Guaranty Trust Bank Plc, United Bank, UAC of Nigeria Plc, Niger-ian Breweries Plc and Guinness Nigeria Plc are among the brokerage’s top 10 picks.
In a related development, efforts to turn around the stock market may soon yield desired results as banks have begun to restructure their credit exposure to stock brokers to make way for longer repayment periods.
The stock market has been on a prolonged bear run since March 2008. Apart from the exit of foreign investors due to the global credit crunch, the market took a massive hit when banks, mid-2008, hurriedly started calling in margin facilities lent to stock broking firms.
While the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has put banks’ exposure at below N1trillion, the Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers (CIS) put total exposure at over N1.5 trillion.
The CBN had approved the restructuring of the margin loans till December 31, 2009. But CIS at a meeting with the CBN last February proposed a restructuring of the loans into term loans repayable in five years or more.
CIS was of the view that until the loans are restructured into term loans, the stock market would remain under pressure as investors and would continue to sell to repay their facilities.
In some instances, some operators (stock brokers) had canvassed a repayment period of seven years with a two-year moratorium.
However, while no collective agreement has been reached on the terms of repayment, THISDAY learnt that Intercontinental Bank Plc may have made a definite move to agree to new payment terms with stock brokers.
It was gathered that Intercontinental Bank has agreed with stock broking firms to which it extended margin loans, that facilities in the region of N500 million and above be repaid within a period of four to five years, while those below N500 million be repaid between two and four years.
It was further agreed that a uniform 15 per cent interest rate across board will be applied on the facilities by Intercontinental Bank.
“The thinking is that it is better to restructure the loans into term loans instead of foreclosing which would be costlier for the banks. Besides, the value of the shares, which serve as collateral have been eroded, so what’s the point in holding on to share certificates that may not amount to much,” a source conversant with the deal said.
In accepting to restructure the loans, said one analyst, banks on their part are accepting responsibility that they lacked an understanding of the risks associated with margin lending and market fundamentals.
Given that several banks have already started writing down their bad loans, and all banks are expected to adopt international accounting reporting standards (IFRS) and a common year end by December 31st 2009, it is uncertain if the CBN is being kept abreast of developments between banks and brokers.
However, market sources said that it is unlikely the CBN will stop them because the new terms agreed with stock brokers shouldn’t deter the banks from making the necessary provisions for non-performing loans by the end of the year.
“The latest measure being adopted by banks and stock broking firms will give them (stock brokers) some rep-rieve that will enable them raise fresh funds and take advantage of low priced stocks in the market,” an analyst said.



http://www.thisdayonline.com/nview.php?id=142941

Them no dey tell pessin,who dey liquid,make e buy some blue chips now

Amen o . May things continue to brighten up o. Man don sweat tire for this economic meltdown.
What about bonus/dividend declarations? Dem neva come? Abeg, all ears to the ground o.

@rasputinn
Thanks for this info. Expecting more, like Oliver Twist, from you.

Ok good to see that things are picking up

jamace:


What about bonus/dividend declarations? Dem neva come?

It's mostly the ones declared for last year,whether based on FYE like Zenith Bank & co or interim dividend like NB & co
I've been receiving dividend warrants in my P.O box on a regular weekly basis since two months ago.Honestly,some of the warrants were pleasant surprises as I wasn't even expecting them,having expected them last year and given up hope

Those that bought Guiness @ N80 plus and NB @ N30 plus are now smiling seriously.I always knew those two would bounce back quicker than ost stocks as global meltdown actually increases sale and consumption of liquor

Yepaaa. The bull has come. See how stocks just the show green green green. Chei where money to buy now o?
Let me congratulate all of us who kept this thread going during the difficult time(bearish period). Kudos.

I hope this bull lasts, though. I'm quite pessimistic about it. It looks like a bear rally 2 me

any update on dis topic, pls?