Pound moved to a tactical retreat

If someone thought that the British pound would return to normal after reducing the chances of a disorderly Brexit to a low, then the beginning of November showed that they are wrong. The leader of the Brexit party, Nigel Faraj, fundamentally disagreeing with the main provisions of the project of Boris Johnson, said he would fight for every seat in the renewed Parliament. This can seriously complicate the position of the Conservatives and increase the risks of the victory of the party of Jeremy Corbyn. Labour promises to nationalize enterprises, raise taxes and hold a second referendum on divorce from the EU. The political landscape in Great Britain remains shaky, which allows Goldman Sachs to recommend that its client close long sterling positions as part of a "tactical retreat".

The dynamics of popularity of the main parties in Britain

Thanks to the almost zero chance of a disorderly Brexit, the pound climbed to second in the list of the best performers of G10 since the beginning of the year. Sterling's two-month volatility has fallen to September lows, however, the intensification of political struggle can lead to an increase in the indicator, which will adversely affect capital flows and the short-term prospects of the British currency.

Pound Volatility Dynamics

The pound practically did not pay attention to the rapid growth of business activity in the manufacturing sector from 48.3 to 49.6 in October. Surveys of purchasing managers were conducted during a period of general euphoria about the fact that a disorderly Brexit was avoided. In addition, the PMI continues to be below the critical mark of 50, indicating a decline in the sector. I do not think that sterling will be very sensitive to the release of data on business activity in the construction and services sectors, but a meeting of the Bank of England can make it worry.

Only one out of the 19 Bloomberg experts predicts that the BoE will lower the repo rate, the rest are confident that it will remain at the same level of 0.75%. At the same time, most experts believe that the central bank will lower forecasts for inflation and GDP and increase estimates of unemployment. This is a hint of monetary expansion, which will increase the risks of a GBP/USD correction. On the whole, it's a rather unexpected turn, given the fact that BoE's previous forecasts were based on the assumption that a disorderly Brexit could be avoided.

Assessment of changes in Bank of England forecasts

If you add seasonal weakness to the growing political risks and potential dovish rhetoric of Mark Carney, then the immediate prospects for sterling can begin to be drawn in gray tones. According to the results of November in 1975-2018, it closed in the red zone in 28 out of 44 cases. Nevertheless, the bullish trend looks stable, so the correction at the end of autumn made it possible to buy a cheaper pound.

Technically, if the bulls on GBP/USD manage to keep the pair quotes above 1.29 and update the October high, then the chances of continuing the rally in the direction of the target by 88.6% according to the Bat pattern will increase. In the opposite case, we are waiting for a correction to 1.276 and 1.272.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

[B]Forecast for EUR/USD on November 6, 2019

EUR/USD
The euro closed the day down by 51 points yesterday. Business media point out the reason for the optimistic sentiment among investors regarding the upcoming US and China trade deal and good October ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, which rose from 52.6 to 54.7. But with a broad view of the market, it is clear that investors are far from experiencing the interest in risk that was on Friday after the release of US employment data. The Dow Jones stock index grew just 0.11%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.12%. The general mood for dollar purchases remains, and it is characteristic that the price has not reached the levels at which the massive closing of euro purchases began on October 22 and 24, which we spoke about at the time.

The decline in the euro stopped at the Fibonacci level of 123.6% at the lows of October 25-29. There may be a respite before the subsequent downward movement. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator penetrates into the negative trend zone. After a respite, we are waiting for prices to fall to the MACD line at around 1.1027. We admit corrective growth to the price channel line near 1.1104.

The situation is completely declining on the four-hour chart: the price is under the lines of balance and MACD, the Marlin oscillator is developing in the territory of the declining trend.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Trading idea for the AUD/CAD

Good evening, dear traders. I present to you the trading idea for the AUD/CAD pair. The decision on the Bank of Australia interest rate - to leave it unchanged until 11/05/2019 - was positively received by the market. And almost all instruments with the Australian dollar worked on a major note. Our recommendations on holding longs on the AUD/USD pair also worked perfectly for this news, and those who followed this trading recommendation closed their positions in positive territory.

However, there was only one instrument with AUD, and the potential of longs on which has not yet been fully exhausted. This is AUD/CAD. We have already given recommendations on this instrument and they all closed in positive territory:

Despite that, the instrument has not yet fulfilled all the goals to the end. I mean the level of 0.91500. And if you want to gain a long position on it, profit can be fixed there. From current prices, the potential will be about 850p for 5zn. But if the instrument rolls back - the potential will be higher. It can be noted that the asset is quite "noisy" and gaining a position, as a rule, is not a problem. The nearest news on it (CAD)- change in employment will be released on Friday at 13:30 UTC+00. It is most likely that the breakdown will take place at this time.

Good luck in trading and see you tomorrow!

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

GBPUSD. Bank of England dissidents, predictions and phlegmatic pound

The results of "Super Thursday" were expectedly not in favor of the British currency, although the first violin in the downward pressure on the pound was played not by the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney, but by two members of the English regulator who unexpectedly called for easing monetary policy. Traders were clearly discouraged by this fact, since the prospects of monetary policy have recently been discussed in a slightly different aspect. Experts discussed - will the BoE raise the rate in the first half of next year or will it still take a wait-and-see attitude? Now this discussion has been supplemented with one more question - will the English regulator resort to a preventive reduction in the rate?

The culprits of the bearish triumph were two members of the Committee - Michael Saunders and Jonathan Haskel. It is worth noting that Saunders is not the first to vote "against the grain", that is, contrary to the general opinion of most colleagues. A little over a year ago, he, along with Ian McCafferty, voted to raise the rate, while the remaining seven members of the Committee voted to maintain the status quo. This went on for three meetings, but then Saunders again joined the majority, voting in a general rhythm.

Now there is a mirror situation. Saunders and Haskel voted to reduce interest rates, violating the expected balance of power (0-2-7 instead of the predicted 0-0-9). For the first time in three years (that is, since August 2016), members of the Committee, albeit not in the majority, voted in favor of easing monetary policy. Moreover, Saunders and Haskell said that the regulator needs to introduce additional incentives as soon as possible, since recent releases indicate a weakening of the British labor market amid increasing risks from the global trade conflict.

The BoE did not support the peculiar "dissidents" in its conclusions, but also did not exclude the realization of such a scenario in the future. The rhetoric of the accompanying statement left a double impression. On the one hand, the English regulator made it clear that if global economic growth does not stabilize, Brexit uncertainty will continue, and key economic indicators will continue downward trend, then the central bank may have to intervene. But then the regulator hastened to declare the likelihood of an alternative scenario. If these risks do not materialize, then the issue of a gradual increase in the rate will again be on the agenda.

In other words, the prospects for monetary policy in the UK again depend on external factors. The Bank of England made it clear that it is ready to tighten monetary policy, but in the conditions of a "soft" Brexit and at least a conditional trade truce between the US and China. And of course, given the growth of key macroeconomic indicators in Britain, especially in the labor market and inflation.

Unfortunately for the GBP/USD bulls, the English regulator lowered its forecasts for the main economic indicators. So, GDP growth for the next year was reduced from 1.3% to the lowest level over the past ten years, 1.2%, and in 2021 - from 2.3% immediately to 1.8%. The BoE also lowered its inflation forecast - according to regulator members, its growth will slow by 1.2% by mid-2020, due to lower prices for black gold and regulatory restrictions on electricity and water tariffs.

Summing up the November meeting, Mark Carney confirmed that the central bank's next likely move would be a reduction in interest rates, as the Bank of England's updated economic forecasts were revised negatively. He also expressed concern that weak investment is detrimental to industrial production, thereby limiting the growth of the British economy and slowing inflation.

Nevertheless, it cannot be said that Carney announced a rate cut in the near future. He just did not rule out a similar scenario, linking it primarily with a possible "hard" Brexit and a general slowdown in the global economy. He voiced such rhetoric more than once, just in this case, Carney's position was reinforced by updated forecasts of the central bank of a negative nature. The two members of the Committee who voted in favor of lowering the rate only added fuel to the fire, putting additional pressure on the pound.

Thus, the November meeting of the Bank of England was by no means "passing". But despite the dovish tone of the regulator, the downward impulse of the GBP/USD pair was limited. Bears could not even gain a foothold in the 27th figure, and the price actually returned to its previous positions during the US session on Thursday. Apparently, traders are still tuned for a Conservative victory in December, and, accordingly, for the soft Brexit, with all the ensuing consequences.

Given this market reaction, it can be assumed that the GBP/USD pair will continue to trade flat, reacting violently only to political news. The pound turned out to be stress-resistant to dovish threats from the Bank of England, so the further dynamics of the pair will be determined only by the political prospects of the "divorce proceedings" between London and Brussels.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Control zones NZDUSD 11/11/19

The downward movement of the pair is impulsive, as the pair has gone beyond the average weekly movement. This indicates a high likelihood of continued fall and an update of the monthly low. Sales will be profitable after the pair returns to the broken middle course zone. The lower boundary of this zone is at the level of 0.6354.

Work in the downward direction will be a priority at the beginning of the new week. The first goal of the fall will be WCZ 1/2 0.6271-0.6265.

A strong increase in demand is required to break the downward momentum, which will lead to the closure of trading on Monday to be above Friday's Asian session. This will indicate the emergence of a major player interested in the appreciation of the New Zealand dollar.

Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Do not trade USD until Wednesday/Thursday

I present to you the evening market analysis.

So today, Monday is one of the worst days to trade in a week, according to many experienced traders. However, if we filter out prejudice and look at the economic calendar, then the next news we will see is only on Wednesday and Thursday. Below, I noted all the important news on USD by the end of the week:

As you can see, this week, we have inflation on Wednesday, and on Thursday, PPI and Powell will be powerful volatile days. Think about it yourself, if you are a bank trader and know that on Wednesday - USD inflation - will you be gaining a position on rumors about its increase or decrease? Of course not! Do you know why? Because all profitable participants are "accountable" people, i.e. they report on their actions to management, investors, etc. Because it is a business. That is why market volatility is falling ahead of the good news. And now is just such a moment. Therefore, I recommend to wait until Wednesday and Thursday.

Most private traders trade a pair of EUR / USD, and I think that it's better to forget about "dollar" instruments by Wednesday. For saving money in flat is a great art. I'm perhaps the only analyst who will periodically recommend you not to trade . "Stay in the cache" - believe me - far from the worst option in trading. After all, the main task in trade is to save a deposit.

Good luck in trading and see you at the morning review!

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Oil returned to production

Euphoria over the proximity of the agreement between China and the United States to end the trade war pulled up quotes of the Brent and WTI. Nevertheless, it was worth of Donald Trump to say that the issue of the rollback of import duties has not yet been resolved, China will notice an 11.5% increase in black gold imports in October, and Oman will declare at the OPEC+ meeting that the agreement on production cut would be extended in the previous volume, as the bulls in both varieties began to get nervous.

As I noted in several previous materials, the slowdown in shale production in the United States, on the one hand, and the reduction in its volumes by Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other countries, on the other hand, have made the factor in changing global demand as the main driver of pricing. The slowdown in its growth under the influence of trade wars caused oil to fall from April to September, however, as soon as a turning point emerged in relations between Beijing and Washington, the situation changed radically. Speculators began to leave short positions and open long ones, and black gold added about 5% since the beginning of November.

The dynamics of speculative positions and quotes WTI

China is the largest oil consumer in the world, therefore, an increase in its imports in January-October by 10.5% YOY made it possible for investors to raise the logical question: if a trade war does not prevent China from increasing purchases of black gold, is it worth expecting that an agreement between Beijing and Washington will sharply raise prices? It is possible that most of the positive has already been incorporated into the Brent and WTI quotes, so the agreement under Phase 1 will go unnoticed by the players.

Due to the prevailing principle of "buy by rumors, sell by facts" on the market, oil bulls may have problems after the OPEC+ signs an agreement on the extension of the Vienna agreement. It envisaged a decrease in production by 1.2 million bpd to March 2020. According to representatives of Oman, quotas will remain unchanged. Investors have no doubts about extending the terms of the agreement, so black gold can plunge into a wave of sales. Morgan Stanley believes that with such an outcome of the meeting between the cartel and Russia, prices for the North Sea grade will fall by 30% to $45 per barrel. Citigroup and BNP Paribas are afraid of the decline in Brent and WTI down to their lowest levels since the 1950s.

Only one thing is obvious - the discussions will be hot. Saudi Arabia needs North Sea growth of $84 per barrel and more to finance its wasteful spending, and Iran with its US sanctions - and $195 per barrel altogether. Opponents of further cutting, most likely, will talk about the loss of OPEC+ market share.

Technically, a breakthrough of resistance at $62.6 and $63.6 (Pivot levels) will make it possible for the Brent bulls to continue the rally in the direction of the targets for the Wolfe Wave and Shark patterns. They are located near the marks of $72.1 and $73.8 per barrel. On the contrary, the inability of buyers to storm important levels will increase the risks of declining quotes to $59.3 and $56.3.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

NZD / USD - change of priority

Good evening, dear traders! A rather rare event has occurred today: the NZD rate has not been lowered, although all the data and forecasts have indicated otherwise. The market expected a rate cut by 0.25 basis points, and as a result, the RBNZ decided to leave it at the same level. Of course, the event was unexpected at the moment, and the market reacted bullish: the NZD/USD currency pair will end the current day with strong growth. Therefore, the recommendation for this instrument is attempts to take a long position (buy), but only from a pullback.

Thus, I believe that on such a "positive" for the New Zealand currency, growth can be expected to continue from the morning impulse and the level of 0.6442 can be considered a possible target for growth - this is an important level for sellers who believe in this level as a resistance level. Now, after today's news, a very real prospect opens up to see at least a false breakdown of this level.

The level of 0.6369 is considered to be an intermediate level for the pullback - it would be interesting to see the pullback as such in its area.

I wish you all success in trading and great profits!

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Control zones USDJPY 11/18/19

The pair tested the WCZ 1/2 108.48-108.38 last Thursday. Consolidation below the zone did not occur, therefore, the upward medium-term impulse remains a priority. The first growth target is the November high. Its achievement will make it possible to close part of the purchases and transfer the rest to breakeven.

Closing Friday trades made it possible to form an absorption pattern of the daily level, which confirms the bullish momentum.

Re-absorption of Friday purchases will be required to implement an alternative option. The probability of this is below 30%, which does not make it possible to consider sales. The main goal of the bullish impulse is the weekly control zone 110.15-109.94, which gives a favorable risk-to-profit ratio for any purchase made from current levels and below. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the possibility of adding to a long position.

Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Pound breaks the rules of the game

The unwillingness of the Brexit Party to continue the struggle for seats in the renewed Parliament was the catalyst for the GBP/USD rally in the direction of the psychologically important mark of 1.3. In 2017, out of 43 seats now owned by Nigel Faraj's followers, 17 were held by the Conservatives, 11 by the Labour Party. The chances of the Tories' victory on December 12 are growing, and according to a poll by Bloomberg experts, their win will allow the pound to fly to $1.34. In such conditions, bulls will find it difficult not to fall into euphoria.

According to a Savanta ComRes poll, the Conservative Party has a 10-point lead over the opposition Labour. Studies by Ipsos Mori showed that 25% of respondents believe in the Tory victory, a third of respondents believe that Boris Johnson's supporters will lead the coalition in the new Parliament. The prime minister himself claims that Conservatives will end the uncertainty that is hampering Britain's economy. Indeed, weaker GDP growth than Reuters experts expected, job cuts, inflation slowdowns and disappointing retail sales statistics indicate that Great Britain is in pain from market uncertainties.

As a result, the 5% sterling rally for the last quarter runs counter to the principle of fundamental analysis "strong economy - strong currency". I would not be surprised if weak data on business activity in Britain lead to a continuation of the rally of the analyzed pair, because in this situation the chances of the Conservatives winning will increase.

Theoretically, the volatility, growing like a yeast, should also exert pressure on the pound. Due to the volatility of quotes, GBP has often been called the "Great British Peso" recently, comparing it with the currencies of developing countries. In fact, the current level of volatility suggests that after a month the sterling will either rise to $1.32, or fall to $1.25. The first option seems more plausible than the second. Pound Volatility Dynamics

The pound is able to restore the bullish trend before December, however, to begin with, it needs to be tested by the publication of the minutes of the October FOMC meeting and political debate. In his speeches at a press conference following the Federal Reserve meeting and before the US Congress, Jerome Powell put a high barrier to changing the rate on federal funds. Its current level of 1.75% is considered by the central bank as comfortable, and reduction is possible only in two cases: with the escalation of the trade conflict in Washington and Beijing and with a significant and prolonged deterioration of US macroeconomic statistics. As a result, the derivatives market believes that before the fall of 2020, changes in the monetary policy of the Fed should not be expected. If the minutes of the October FOMC meeting confirms this, the US dollar may receive some preferences.

Technically, the GBP/USD update of the October highs will increase the risks of continuing the upward campaign to the area of 1,322-1,327, where the Bat and AB = CD targets are located, as well as the Pivot levels. While sterling is trading above $1.2725-1.275, the situation is under the control of the bulls.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

#USDX vs AUD / USD vs NZD / USD vs USD / CAD - H4. Comprehensive analysis of movement options for November 20, 2019 APLs & ZUP analysis

Minuette operational scale (H4) Commodity currencies - Here's a comprehensive analysis of the options for the development of the movement #USDX vs AUD / USD vs NZD / USD vs USD / CAD for November 20, 2019 on the Minuette operational scale forks (H4 time frame)

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US dollar Index

The dollar index continues to remain in the 1/2 Median Line channel (97.65 - 97.92 - 98.15) of the Minuette operational scale forks, respectively, the further development of the #USDX movement from November 20, 2019 will be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the above levels. The details of the development are shown on animated chart.

The breakdown of the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (support level of 97.65) of the Minuette operational scale forks - continuation of the downward movement #USDX to the equilibrium zone (97.40 - 97.15 - 96.92) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

On the contrary, in case of breakdown of the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (resistance level of 98.15), the movement of the dollar index can be continued towards the goals: control line UTL (98.27) of the Minuette operational scale forks

- local maximum 98.45 - lower boundary of the ISL38.2 (98.50) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks - 1/2 Median Line Minuette (98.87).

The markup of #USDX movement options from November 20, 2019 is shown on the animated chart.

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Australian dollar vs US dollar

The development of the movement of the Australian dollar AUD / USD from November 20, 2019 will depend on the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (0.6812 - 0.6825 - 0.6842) of the Minuette operational scale forks. The details of the development of the boundaries of this channel are presented on the animated chart.

The breakdown of the resistance level of 0.6842 at the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel is the continuation of the movement of the Australian dollar to the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (0.6855) of the Minuette operational scale forks and the equilibrium zone (0.6865 - 0.6890 - 0.6915) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

However, in the event of a breakdown of the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (support level of 0.6812) on the Minuette operational scale, it will be possible to continue the downward movement of AUD / USD to the targets: the initial SSL Minuette line (0.6785) - local minimum 0.6770 - LTL Minuette control line (0.6760) - upper boundary ISL38.2 (0.6745) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks.

From November 20, 2019, we look at the layout of the AUD / USD movement options on the animated chart.

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New Zealand dollar vs US dollar

From November 20, 2019, the development of the movement of the New Zealand dollar NZD / USD will be determined by the development and the direction of the breakdown of the range :

resistance level of 0.6415 on the control line UTLof the Minuette operational scale forks;
support level of 0.6395 at the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale forks.

The breakdown of the UTL control line (resistance level of 0.6415) of the Minuette operational scale fork will determine the continuation of the development of the upward movement of NZD / USD to the equilibrium zone (0.6450 - 0.6475 - 0.6500) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

In contrast, the breakdown of support level of 0.6395 will cause the movement of the New Zealand dollar to continue in the 1/2 Median Line channel (0.6395 - 0.6380 - 0.6360) of the Minuette operational scale forks, and if the breakdown of the lower boundary (0.6360) of this channel takes place, then the downward movement of this currency instrument can continue goals: local minimums (0.6330 - 0.6318) - control line LTL Minuette (0.6300) - 1/2 Median Line channel (0.6275 - 0.6230 - 0.6185) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

From November 20, 2019, we look at the layout of the NZD / USD movement options on the animated chart.

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US dollar vs Canadian dollar

Similarly, the development of the movement of the Canadian dollar USD / CAD from November 20, 2019 will also be due to the development and direction of the breakdown of the range :

resistance level of 1.3210 at the lower boundary of ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks;
support level of 1.3200 at the upper boundary of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks.

The breakdown of ISL38.2 Minuette (support level of 1.3200) will make the development of the Canadian dollar to continue in the equilibrium zone (1.3200 - 1.3180 - 1.3160) of the Minuette operational scale forks followed by the continuation thereof in the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.3160 - 1.3130 - 1.3100) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

On the contrary, the breakdown of ISL38.2 Minuette (resistance level of 1.3210) - the development of the USD / CAD movement in the equilibrium zone (1.3210 - 1.3252 - 1.3295) of the Minuette operational scale forks, taking into account the development of the SSL initial line (1.3262) of the Minuette operational scale forks and the local maximum 1.3270.

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The review is made without taking into account the news background. Thus, the opening of trading sessions of major financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders " sell " or " buy "

The formula for calculating the dollar index:

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.
where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:
Euro - 57.6%;
Yen - 13.6%;
Pound Sterling - 11.9%;
Canadian dollar - 9.1%;
Swedish Krona - 4.2%;
Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the start date of the countdown - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Trading idea for the AUD/USD pair

Good evening, dear traders! The growth of AUD / USD is what is interesting today. As we remember, unemployment data was published in Australia last week on November 14, to which this instrument reacted negatively: the AUD/USD currency pair was declining throughout the whole day. An important detail is that during the fall, an important extreme at 0.6810 was updated. Thus, I believe that this was a culmination of the downward trend in November, and given the reaction of the Australian dollar to this week's news, I think that local growth is possible to the level of 0.6843, which is the news' high on Wednesday. Now, why exactly this level? It's simple - every seller who believes in a further fall of this instrument will clearly depend precisely on the news impulse on November 14, so the price can go there with a high degree of probability.

Recommendation: try to buy in order to update the level of 0.6943. At the same time, losses can be limited to the lowest level of 0.6788 - there is no sense in holding purchases below, and in case of updating this minimum, the bullish scenario can be considered invalid.

Wishing you all success in trading and huge profits!

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

GBP/USD approaching resistance, potential drop!

Price is approaching our first resistance a 1.28722 where we are expecting a drop to our first support level at 1.27697.

Entry: 1.28722
23.6% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap resistance
Take Profit : 1.27697
Why it's good : horizontal swing low support

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Developing USD/CAD pair and trading idea

During the previous recommendation on Friday,it is advised to develop the pair at least on a false breakdown of the level of 1.3269. Actually, this is exactly the outcome we are observing - on the news, this level was falsely broken, and thus, the recommendation completely justified itself. The plan was this:

Thus far, the intrigue of the instrument continues. False news breakdown of this level provides a good opportunity for the development of further medium-term upward trend. Since the end of October, there has been a prolonged upward trend on for this instrument, and the probability of its continuation is still high. For this reason, there is another recommendation for the same instrument today. I believe that the development will continue to a minimum to the level of 1.3326. Therefore, you can try to buy with a goal of updating it, limiting the risks at the price of 1.3254, since it makes no sense to keep purchases below the news last Friday. Updating Friday's minimum - the bullish scenario will be completely canceled.

Wishing you all success in trading and huge profits!

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Take profit on AUD/USD pair

Good evening, dear traders! Congratulations to those who took advantage of our trading idea for the AUD/USD pair, which was provided last November 25.

Let me remind you that the idea was to develop the lower daily area in a downward trend:

As you can see, the first goal is taken:

The collapse did not follow, so I recommend taking profits.

Good luck in trading and see you tomorrow morning!

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Forecast for EUR/USD on November 28, 2019

EUR/USD
On Wednesday, US statistics continued to delight investors and markets swayed towards the dollar. The euro lost 22 points. GDP for the third quarter amounted to 2.1% against the expectation of 1.9%, the volume of orders for durable goods increased by 0.6% in October against the forecast of -0.5%,

On the daily chart, the price went below the MACD indicator line. If today closes with a black candle, then the price will consolidate below it with the prospect of a medium-term decline. The immediate goal of this movement at 1.0925 is the lowest level of September 3 and 12. In the four-week period, the price of 1.0720/30 can be reached - the lower line of the blue price channel (visible on a very tight chart). The Marlin oscillator lies in the horizon in the negative trend zone, volatility is likely to be low in the thin market today.

On a four-hour chart, the price has consolidated under the blue line of MACD. The range between the levels of 1.0985-1.1026 is likely to be today (perhaps even tomorrow) a consolidation zone.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Why didn't the oil go upwards? Volume analysis for oil

Good evening, dear traders! Yesterday, we gave a trading idea for the growth of oil but paid attention to the evening news on oil reserves in the United States. Let's analyze this situation on volumes.

During the time of the opening of Europe, the price immediately went up and while it is on the way to the maximum of 58.74, there was another extremum - 58.56. At the breakdown of which, there was practically no doubt about the further increase in price. Looking at the chart, even the trend line up indicates purchases. However, It is very important that all this happened in the middle of the European session and before the release of the weekly news on Oil Reserves for about another 5 hours. That is, everyone only sees purchases.

At the time of the opening of the American session, there was also no increase in prices. Although the upward trend still remained, which added confidence in the growth.

In addition, at the time of the news release, summing up all mentioned above, the state of the price was such that all liquidity was not up, but, on the contrary, at the bottom with the nearest targets 58.13 and the American session of the previous day which is 57.76.

Oil's approach to the maximum in Europe:

Thus, the Europeans simply didn't have the courage to collect stocks before the reserves. Nevertheless, the stocks themselves came out large, which led to the sales of black gold.

This analysis is based on the US oil futures.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Control zones for USD/CAD on 12/03/19

During the second week, the pair is trading within the accumulation zone. This makes it possible to consider weekly extremes for finding entry points. The upper boundary is the maximum of the last week, which coincides with the Weekly Control Zone 1/2 1.3328-1.3319. Now, testing this zone will be decisive for the entire upward movement of the last month.

Working within the framework of the flat implies partial consolidation of transactions during tests of significant extremes.

An alternative model will be developed if the closure of today's trading occurs above the Weekly Control Zone 1/2. This will open the way for further growth. The nearest goal, in turn, will be the maximum of October. The test of which will increase the probability of a large offer.

Daily CZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Oil kings can do everything?

Oil is slowly recovering from a major sell-off on the last day of autumn. Taking advantage of the thin market after Thanksgiving, speculators decided to get rid of their long positions ahead of the December OPEC+ meeting. The simplest thing that the cartel and Russia can do is to prolong the agreement to reduce production by several months after March 2020. However, how will the market react to this? Isn't it better to avoid a massive sell-off before the results of the meeting are known?

If speculators sold oil at the November 29 auction, before that, on the contrary, they were actively building up long positions. By the end of the week, November 26, WTI net-longs increased by 15%, gross longs increased by 12%, while shorts fell by 14%. Approximately the same numbers could be seen on Brent.

Brent Speculative Dynamics

It is peculiar that black gold was not moving in unison with US stocks at the turn of autumn and winter. The latter were marked by a serious collapse after the White House introduced duties on imports of steel and aluminum from Brazil and Argentina, while oil grew in response to rumors of Saudi Arabia's desire to expand production cuts from 1.2 million bpd to 1.6 million bpd, at least until June 2020. Riyadh needs to carry out an initial public offering of shares in the state-owned company Aramco, the scale of which is estimated at approximately $25 billion. If Brent is listed below $60 per barrel, it is unlikely that buyers will grab paper of the oil company like hotcakes.

However, according to Goldman Sachs, even if OPEC+ expands its obligations by 400 thousand bpd by the end of June 2020, this is unlikely to lead to a serious increase in prices. The bank predicts that North Sea-grade quotes will dangle around $60 per barrel for most of next year.

Oil support is provided by the first growth above the critical level of 50 in business activity in China's manufacturing sector since April. China is the largest consumer of black gold in the world, and an increase in demand of 64 thousand bpd in the third quarter is good news for Brent bulls and WTI. Moreover, the IEA predicts that the figure will reach a record high of 13.6 million bpd in 2020. I have no doubt that this will be so if the trade war between Washington and Beijing does not become history. Otherwise, weak global demand will continue to put downward pressure on black gold prices.

At the same time, the growth of shale production in the United States significantly affects the market balance. In September, the United States closed a full month as a net exporter of black gold for the first time since 1940. Its deliveries abroad exceeded imports by 89 thousand bpd. It is Interesting that the last time the value of net imports exceeded 12 million was ten years ago.

Technically, without leaving Brent quotes beyond the downward trading channel, the implementation of the Double Bottom pattern can be forgotten. On the contrary, a breakthrough of support at $56 per barrel, which corresponds to the lower boundary of the triangle, the risks of a downward trend recovery will increase.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Forecast for USD/JPY on December 5, 2019

USD/JPY

The information received yesterday from the headquarters of the US and Chinese negotiators on trade encouraged the markets - representatives of the parties allowed the conclusion of the first phase of the deal until December 15, before the date of the introduction of tariffs on Chinese goods. The US S&P 500 index gained 0.63%, Nikkei 225 is currently up 0.70% and China A50 grew 0.36%. The price turned from the achieved first bearish goal - from the enclosed line of the price channel, a little short of the MACD line. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is still in the negative trend zone, growth could continue, but still within the correction.

The correction can continue to the range of 109.30/50 (highs of October 30 and November 7), going over the range will mean the correction will go into a trend growth, the target will be the line of the green price channel in the region of 109.95. Leaving prices at yesterday's low opens the next bearish target at 107.57 - the intersection of the lines of the red and green price channels.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Developing the trading idea for oil

Good evening, dear traders! I present to you the development of a trading idea for oil based on volumetric analysis!

Let me remind you that the idea for purchasing oil for the absorption of the decline last Friday was presented yesterday (12/04/19), which happened without the participation of America, because they had a public holiday. After that, the Americans traded for the next 2 trading sessions at prices that were not very profitable for sales, i.e. cheap relative to prices before the holidays.

The price increase occurred before the news on Oil Reserves, but this also increased the probability of a maximum update, since oil production was sharply reduced and today, there was an opportunity to add long positions in order to update the last maximum of 58.74.

As a result, 250 points were earned from the entry point 56.30 to the crossing 58.74. Moreover, it would bring +60 points when adding a long position or purchasing from oil reserves.

Forecast:

Developing trading idea with a description:

Good luck in trading and follow the money management!

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Plans for gold

Good day, dear traders! It is time to turn to gold, for which there is a possibility of a large medium-term decline. Last week turned out to be very exciting for this instrument: at first, the main driver was the news on China, on which gold showed strong growth, but the week ended with a sheer drop in non-farms and a complete absorption of "Chinese" growth. It is important to note that a false breakout of the level of 1478.68, an important level for November sellers, was shown last week which confirms their strength.

Therefore, I believe that in the medium term gold will decline at least to the level of 1445.33. Whether this breakout turns out to be real or false does not matter, its presence is what is of significance to us. It is also necessary to remember that there will be another Federal Reserve meeting and a decision on the interest rate on Wednesday evening, which gold will definitely react strongly to. Therefore, I believe that until Wednesday, the development of a trend for gold is unlikely. I recommend that you wait until the pullback at least half of the Friday fall, after which you can look for the opportunity to take short positions in the medium term in order to update the price mark of 1445.33.

If the Friday fall is completely absorbed by buyers, this will mean that the priority has changed and the bearish scenario can be considered unfulfilled.

I remind you that the day of increased volatility in gold is on Wednesday evening - the interest rate on USD, as well as the Fed conference.

I wish you success in trading and big profits!

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Forecast for EUR/USD on December 11, 2019

EUR/USD
Yesterday's indicators on sentiment in business circles of the eurozone greatly exceeded expectations and the single currency closed the day with an increase of 28 points. The Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment index for December jumped from -1.0 to 11.2 points while expecting growth to 2.2 points, the German index grew from -2.1 to 10.7 while expecting 1.1 points.

On the daily chart, the price exceeded strong resistance of the Fibonacci level of 123.6% and the embedded line of the price channel. The price exit above the signal level of 1.1116 (December 4 high) opens the way for further growth to the Fibonacci level of 110.0%. Today, the main news of the day will be the US central bank's decision on monetary policy, followed by a press conference by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. We do not expect strong movements in the euro until the evening, as it was yesterday.

What will be the Fed's forecasts on the economy and forecasts of the FOMC members on rates? The most obvious answer lies on the surface - economic forecasts will be moderately optimistic, rate forecasts will shift towards holding the current 1.75% almost until the fall-winter of next year. And if it turns out that way, then investors can count on maintaining the rate almost until the spring of 2021, until the new president takes office. A financial crisis may hinder this situation, the chances of the deployment of which are great next year, but so far this factor has not been taken into account.

In general, we expect the euro to return under the newfound support from the Fibonacci lines and the price channel and a further decrease in the price to the Fibonacci level of 138.2% at the price of 1.0985.

On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator reached the boundary with the growth territory, from which the indicator can turn down, followed by a price drop.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

EUR/USD. US inflation unfairly ignored: market is busy with other problems

Dollar bulls ignored the release of data on rising US inflation today. The euro-dollar pair is waiting for meetings of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, while the pound-dollar pair awaits early parliamentary elections. The remaining pairs in which the US dollar is a part of are closely watching the prospects of the US-Chinese negotiations in the light of the approaching December 15 - that is, the day when the White House could introduce additional duties on Chinese imports. In other words, the main currency pairs were distracted by other fundamental factors, so one of the key macroeconomic releases was left unattended by traders.

Nevertheless, this publication should not be ignored - sooner or later the market will return to these figures, especially if Washington and Beijing come to a certain compromise (according to rumors, Trump is ready to postpone the introduction of new duties in January or February). It's worth noting that the numbers published today came out in the green zone, showing impressive growth. In particular, the overall consumer price index reached 2.1% in annual terms - this is the best result since last November. On a monthly basis, instead of a projected decline to 0.2%, the index rose to 0.4%. The core index also pleased investors: the indicator met expectations at around 0.2% in monthly terms. The indicator came out in the green zone on an annualized basis, exceeding the forecast values (2.3% YOY). This dynamics is primarily due to the increase in energy tariffs (as in the previous period). In addition, medical services, food and transportation costs have risen in price.

But all these numbers were left out of the attention of EUR/USD traders (however, like the rest of the dollar pairs). Traders are clearly nervous on the eve of the December meeting of the Fed, the results of which will put dots on the i in many matters. First, the general tone of the accompanying statement is of interest. The dollar's position largely depends on how regulator members place emphasis in their communique.

The Fed definitely has reasons for optimism - many macroeconomic reports over the past month have been either better than forecasts, or have been revised upwards. For example, the growth rate of the US economy in the third quarter should have slowed down to 1.8% (with growth up to 3.1% in the first quarter and up to 2% in the second). In reality, the volume of GDP increased by 2.1%, and the component of personal consumption showed the highest growth from the second quarter of the year before last. The price index of GDP remained at the initial level of 1.7% (against the two percent forecast), while this indicator grew by 2.4% in the second quarter. Base RFE also accelerated - to 2.1% after more modest growth in the previous period. The indicator of orders for durable goods also pleased. Here you can recall Nonfarm: the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector increased to 266 thousand, although, according to data from the ADP agency, this indicator should have fallen below the 100 thousandth mark. Employment in the manufacturing sector also increased (an increase of 54 thousand), after a decrease in the previous month. The unemployment rate has completely decreased to a half-century low - up to 3.5%.

It is likely that members of the US regulator in their accompanying statement will reflect the above trends in the economy. However, there is a flip side to the coin - this is the uncertainty about the prospects for trade relations between China and the United States, as well as a slowdown in the manufacturing and export sectors. The ISM index in the service sector, as well as the production ISM, turned out to be much worse than forecasts, reflecting the ongoing decline in activity, in particular, in the manufacturing industry. In addition, the most important inflation indicator for the Fed (base PCE) showed a negative trend, falling to 1.6% in annual terms. Thus, it moved away from the two percent target level.

All this suggests that the December meeting of the Fed can bring surprises. According to the forecasts of most experts, the Fed will maintain the status quo, and secondly, it will not hint at a possible interest rate cut in the first half of next year. According to this scenario, a point forecast will signal that the regulator does not intend to mitigate monetary policy in 2020. This is a basic scenario, which is already largely taken into account in prices. In case of deviation from it, the dollar will fall into a storm of price turbulence. The greenback will become significantly cheaper if the Fed allows lower rates next year and, accordingly, more expensive if regulators favor a tightening of monetary policy within the next year. It is also worth considering that today the regulator will publish updated forecasts for the economy, employment and inflation. If they differ significantly from October estimates, then the reaction of traders will also not take long. Against the backdrop of such prospects, today's data on the growth of US inflation remained in the shadow. The movement vector of the EUR/USD pair is completely dependent on the results of the December meetings of the Fed and the ECB.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Development of trading ideas for USD/CAD and oil.

Good evening traders! Congratulations to those who used our USD / CAD trading idea and oil last time.

Trading idea for USD / CAD:

Development of trading idea for USD / CAD:

Trading idea for oil:

Development of trading idea for oil:

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

GBP/USD. Great Britain is outside the European Union. Problems begin even before the official Brexit.

Fanfares died out, everyone was drunk from champagne, and the whole Kingdom celebrated the victory of Boris Johnson in the elections, and now the country really has the right to prepare for the final "divorce" from the European Union. Most likely, Boris Johnson will succeed in unhindered dragging his version of the "deal" with the European Union on Brexit through the new Parliament, which means that London and Brussels can announce the beginning of the "transition period" on January 31 (or even earlier). We said earlier that despite the strong appreciation of the pound against the optimism of traders regarding Brexit and the formation of a "majority government" by conservatives, the UK and the pound are now facing harsh everyday life. Moreover, pound may continue to strengthen in pair with the dollar, however, traders will begin to pay attention to macroeconomic statistics from Foggy Albion and from overseas sooner or later, and it does not need to be analyzed for a long time in order to draw appropriate conclusions. It is unequivocal, in favor of the American currency. Moreover, market participants can "remember" all those failed statistics from Britain in those two months when no one paid attention to it. If we add to this the still potentially long and complicated negotiations with the European Union on new trade relations between the bloc and the Kingdom, it becomes clear that the economic situation in the UK may continue to deteriorate, which will definitely negatively affect economic performance.And in the last three months, the main indicator of the state of the economy of any country – GDP - either showed negative growth rates, that is, decreased, or showed zero growth.

Nevertheless, this is not all the potential problems that may be encountered in the UK. The fact is that no less high-profile than Boris Johnson, Nicola Sturgeon won in her Scottish Parliament. From which her party scored 48 out of 59 possible seats. Sturgeon had also previously stated that Scotland is against leaving the European Union. Now, after the deafening victory of the Scottish nationalists, talk of holding a second referendum resumed. The leader of the Scottish National Party said that "the future of Scotland should be in the hands of the Scots." According to Sturgeon, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has a mandate for Brexit in England, but does not have a mandate to withdraw Scotland from the European Union. Next week, the Sturgeon party will submit an official application for a referendum on independence. "It's not about to ask permission from the prime minister of Great Britain or any other Westminster politician. This is a confirmation of the democratic right of the people of Scotland to determine their future." Sturgeon emphasized. "Scotland cannot be a prisoner of Britain, it needs to be allowed to hold a referendum on independence, since it was on the verge of leaving the European Union against its will." summed up by the first minister of Scotland.

Thus, we believe that the UK can now face the new Brexit, even before the implementation of its own. Although it is difficult to say whether Nicola Sturgeon is able to hold such a referendum without the approval of London. And there is no doubt that London will not give approval. Thus,we can witness a new epic called "Scexit" (Scotland EXIT) very soon.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Trading idea for GBP/USD pair

Good evening, dear traders! I present to your attention a trading idea for the GBP/USD pair.

So, the Conservatives won the parliamentary elections in the UK, and now, no one doubts that the party of Boris Johnson will bring Brexit to its logical conclusion. On this news, the GBP/USD pair increased by 3500p for 5zn namely at the time of the announcement of the preliminary results of the parliamentary elections. And all would be nothing - both positive and joy for Britain. Thus, only those who already knew does not speak about it. However, no one here says how it is possible to earn money on it now. Therefore, I suggest one simple trading idea based on the "Hunt for Feet" method, and it consists of developing the stops of pound buyers, from Friday, as well as today. The fact is that over the past 1.5 days, buyers can become (put their stops) only at the level of 1.33, which is also round. It is believed that this is a great goal of "stop hunters", and you can quite easily implement it by using the signals of your strategies on smaller time frames to enter.

As usual, it is recommended to develop against the "crowd." Following a strategy is a distinctive feature of successful trading.

Good luck in trading and follow the money management!

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

GBP / USD. December 18th. The results of the day. Boris Johnson is ready to return to the "tough" Brexit and takes a tough stance in future negotiations with the EU

4 hour time-frame
Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 108p - 179p - 354p - 101p - 234p.
Average volatility over the past 5 days: 196p (high).

The GBP / USD currency pair on Wednesday trades continued a steady downward movement, which, from our point of view, is justified by only one factor. This factor is elections to the Parliament of Great Britain. They were left behind and deprived market participants of the foundation and the reason that allowed them to buy the pound in the last two months. Now that it is clear that the entire power in the country is concentrated in the hands of the Conservative Party, that neither Labor, nor Scottish nationalists, nor, moreover, other political forces, and even all of them combined, can prevent Boris Johnson from doing so, gives an opportunity with high accuracy to predict what will happen in the state in the near future. December 20 will be a vote on a bill of agreement between Britain and the European Union. Certainly it will be adopted by a majority vote and on January 31, 2020 (or even earlier), the so-called "transition period" will begin, during which the Boris Johnson government will need to agree with Brussels on all aspects of the further coexistence of the Alliance and the Kingdom, which has left the jurisdiction of Brussels. However, if earlier Boris Johnson and his cabinet had to agree, because Parliament required it, now he absolutely does not have to do it. Recall that initially Johnson was ready to implement the "hard" Brexit without any agreements with the European Union. Now that there are already agreements, it is possible to continue the dialogue with Michel Barnier and the company, but the British Prime Minister has already made it clear that he will not make any concessions, prolongation of the "transitional period" categorically rejects (now in the UK there is a law that allows extending the "transitional period" once for a period of 2 years, if the parties fail to manage to reach an agreement before the expiration of the initial period). According to Johnson, any negotiations with the EU should be completed by December 31, 2020, and if London and Brussels fail to meet this deadline, then the gap will occur without an agreement at all. That is, in fact, the government of Boris Johnson, having received full power in the country, is absolutely not opposed to returning to the original version with the "hard" Brexit. Or is this a new plan by Boris Johnson aimed at political blackmail of the leaders of the European Union. Approximately Johnson's strategy may be as follows. The Prime Minister threatens a "tough" divorce and requires speedy negotiations and the speedy conclusion of a trade agreement. If the EU drags out the time during which Britain continues to pay contributions to the European treasury, to remain under all EU financial standards, then Johnson is ready to withdraw without a "deal". Since the "tough" Brexit is not beneficial for the EU itself, then, according to the Prime Minister, the Europeans will be much more accommodating. In any case, negotiations will continue for at least the next year, which, according to the vast majority of experts, will be difficult. And at best, a trade agreement will be concluded at the end of the year that will mitigate the negative effect of breaking all ties between London and Brussels. In the worst case, there will be no agreement,

Macroeconomic statistics from the UK continues to leave much to be desired, however, today, when the pound continued to calmly drop in price, the only British report of the day - the consumer price index for November - did not disappoint market participants. According to experts, inflation in the Foggy Albion should have been reduced to 1.4% y / y, but this did not happen and the index remained at the level of the previous month - 1.5% y / y. This is not to say that this is great and now the British economy will begin to recover. This is just the absence of deterioration in one month. If we recall the rest of the macroeconomic statistics, it becomes clear that there are no reasons for joy and the British pound is likely to continue to fall against the US currency. Moreover, the most important topics for the US dollar (the impeachment of Donald Trump, trade wars and negotiations with China) have no effect on the movement of the GBP / USD pair. And macroeconomic statistics from across the ocean, if it does not please traders in 100% of cases, in most cases it turns out to be quite strong and does not disappoint. So it turns out that the prospects for the British currency are now approximately the same as those of the European currency - absolutely negative. We can still hypothetically hardly imagine what should happen in the States or the European Union, so that the balance of power between their economies is reversed. then the majority comes out strong enough and does not disappoint. So it turns out that the prospects for the British currency are now approximately the same as those of the European currency - absolutely negative. We can still hypothetically hardly imagine what should happen in the States or the European Union, so that the balance of power between their economies is reversed. then the majority comes out strong enough and does not disappoint. So it turns out that the prospects for the British currency are now approximately the same as those of the European currency - absolutely negative. We can still hypothetically hardly imagine what should happen in the States or the European Union, so that the balance of power between their economies is reversed. so that the balance of power between their economies is reversed. then the majority comes out strong enough and does not disappoint. So it turns out that the prospects for the British currency are now approximately the same as those of the European currency - absolutely negative. We can still hypothetically hardly imagine what should happen in the States or the European Union, so that the balance of power between their economies is reversed. so that the balance of power between their economies is reversed. then the majority comes out strong enough and does not disappoint. So it turns out that the prospects for the British currency are now approximately the same as those of the European currency - absolutely negative. We can still hypothetically hardly imagine what should happen in the States or the European Union, so that the balance of power between their economies is reversed.

Trading recommendations:

GBP / USD continues to form a new downtrend. The price has worked out the bottom line of the Ichimoku cloud and the first support level of 1.3083. Thus, a rebound from these strong support levels may trigger a round of upward correction. However, without rebounding the price from the indicated supports or without turning up the MACD indicator, it is not recommended to reduce sell positions. The following targets for trading are lowering 1.2931 and 1.2833. It is recommended that purchases of the British pound be returned no earlier than the price fixing above the Kijun-sen line, which is clearly not expected in the coming days.

Explanation of the illustration:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen is the red line.
Kijun-sen is the blue line.
Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.
Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.
Chinkou Span - green line.
Bollinger Bands Indicator: 3 yellow lines.
MACD indicator:
Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicators window.
Support / Resistance Classic Levels:
Red and gray dotted lines with price symbols.
Pivot Level:
Yellow solid line.
Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:
Gray dotted lines without price designations.
Possible price movement options:
Red and green arrows.Translation

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Forecast for AUD / USD on December 20, 2019

AUD / USD
Yesterday, the Australian dollar grew 32 points on good employment data which makes the unemployment rate fell from 5.3% to 5.2%. In general, the correctional growth from the fall of the "Aussie" from December 13 to 17 was 61.8% which is 38.2% on the chart. Due to this, the growth may stop since a double divergence has already been formed on the Marlin oscillator, and the probability of triple divergence is historically small. The first goal of the new wave of decline is the nested price channel line at 0.6860. Overcoming this level opens up prospects for a medium-term decrease in the Australian dollar which is at 0.6820 according to the MACD line near the Fibonacci level of 123.6%, and at 0.6778 which is the reaction level of 161.8%. This continues on to the underlying embedded price channel line which is at 0.6678.

On the four-hour chart, the price is currently above the balance lines (indicator red) and MACD, and the Marlin oscillator is also in the growth zone. The departure of the price for these lines, below 0.6885, will reveal the main lowering scenario. The observed price above the indicator lines will be interpreted as false.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Forecast for EUR/USD on January 6, 2019

EUR/USD

Last Friday, the euro made an attempt to push the technical level of 110.0% Fibonacci on the daily chart, but it failed on its first attempt. On Saturday, US President Trump threatened to attack 52 Iran's targets in the event of Iran's military response to a US missile strike, leading to the assassination of General Soleimani. Trump was indirectly supported by Britain, Germany and France, once again urging Tehran to comply with the nuclear deal. We doubt the development of the conflict before the hot phase of the war with Iran, but the current situation can help the dollar in getting out of consolidation (of course, in the direction of strengthening), stretching from July last year.

On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator approached the lower boundary of its own channel, the exit from which down will strengthen the fall of the euro. The purpose of the movement is the embedded line of the global downward price channel in the region of 1.1045.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Ichimoku cloud indicator Daily analysis of EURUSD for January 7, 2020

EURUSD remains in a bullish trend continuing to make higher highs and higher lows. Price so far has respected the key Cloud support area of 1.1040-1.1050. Thus we continue to see more upside potential over the coming days.

Price has broken above the Kumo (cloud) and has so far successfully back tested support. Price bounced off the Cloud and this was another bullish signal. EURUSD is now trading above the tenkan-sen (red line indicator) while the kijun-sen is trending below tenkan-sen with a positive slope. With the tenkan-sen above the kijun-sen we have supporting evidence of a bullish trend. We continue to expect this next leg higher to move closer to 1.1280.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Australian network through franc

Good evening, dear traders. Congratulations to all Orthodox Christians on Christmas! I wish you well and financial well-being!

As you have probably already noticed, I often trade certain cross-courses using the grid method. And today, as an example of one of them, I will show how you can spread the correct network of limit purchases on the highly oversold AUD/CHF instrument.

Please note that such counter-trend sets should be carried out only after fairly strong passes and an understanding of the average rollback for the pair. You can see some part of these numbers on the screen on the left with a 5-digit dimension.

Now, if you use the lot increase coefficient, you can calculate it according to the trader's calculator.

Good luck in trading and control the risks!

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex