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Foreign Affairs / Kenyan President Removes Budget For First Lady by 4Play(m): 2:04pm On Jul 05
BREAKING: Kenyan president William Ruto removes budgets for offices of First Lady, Second Lady and dissolves 47 state agencies after 3 weeks of anti-government protests.

Mr Ruto announced this in a live broadcast on Friday.

He also dissolved 47 agencies, suspending non-essential travels for officials.


Mr Ruto said “the number of advisors in government by 50% immediately.”

“The operations of the office of the first lady, second lady and the wife of the prime cabinet will be removed,” Mr Ruto added.

According to the Kenyan president, all non-essential travel by state and public officers “is hereby suspended,” and “no state officer or public servant will participate in harambee.”

He added, “In keeping up with the austerity measures we promised, 47 State corporations with overlapping and duplicating functions to be dissolved and affected staff to be transferred to other ministries.”

For three straight weeks, protesters marched on the streets of Kenya, disrupting commercial activities for the third week since the protests against the Finance Bill broke out on June 18.

https://gazettengr.com/just-in-ruto-scraps-budget-for-first-ladys-office-dissolves-40-agencies-amid-protests/

Makes a lot of sense. If you are asking your countrymen to make sacrifices, that you demonstrate that you are prepared to cut the cost of governance.

1 Like

Politics / As Nigeria's Gasoline Debt Hits $6 Billion, Some Traders Back Out by 4Play(m): 3:05am On Jul 05
Nigeria's debt to gasoline suppliers has surpassed $6 billion - doubling since early April - as state oil firm NNPC struggles to cover the gap between fixed pump prices and international fuel costs, six industry sources said.

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu announced an end to expensive fuel subsidies last year, allowing pump prices to triple. But state oil company NNPC capped pump prices shortly afterward as citizens chafed under rising cost of living.

NNPC began struggling early this year when late gasoline payments surpassed $3 billion.

The company has still not paid for some January imports, traders said, and the late payments amount to $4 billion to $5 billion. Under contract terms, NNPC is meant to pay within 90 days of delivery. NNPC declined to comment.

"The only reason traders are putting up with it is the $250,000 a month (per cargo) for late payment compensation," one industry source said.
At least two suppliers already stopped participating in recent tenders after hitting self-imposed debt exposure limits to Nigeria, the sources said, meaning they will not send more gasoline until they receive payments.


https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/nigerias-gasoline-debt-hits-6-billion-some-traders-back-out-say-sources-2024-07-04/

1 Like

Politics / Re: FG Clears $850 Million Debt To European Airlines by 4Play(m): 8:11am On Jul 04
To foster the false narrative of progress, news is circulated which is portrayed as unprecedented positive developments but which are in fact a replay of the past:


Here is an article from 2017
LAGOS, Feb 1 (Reuters) - Nigeria's central bank has sold $660 million in three- and five- month currency forwards at an auction aimed at clearing a backlog of dollar demand, traders said on Wednesday.
Last Wednesday, the central bank had asked commercial lenders to bid in a special currency auction targeted at clearing backlog of dollar obligations of manufacturing, airlines, agriculture and petroleum sector.

https://www.reuters.com/article/world/africa/nigeria-sells-660-mln-forwards-to-clear-backlog-of-dollar-demand-traders-idUSL5N1FM3B8/

Here is another from 2018:

The International Air Transport Association on Tuesday announced that Nigeria had cleared the backlog of $600m trapped funds belonging to foreign airlines operating in the country.

The Director-General and Chief Executive Officer, IATA, Alexandre de Juniac, disclosed this at the association’s 74th Annual General Meeting and World Air Transport Summit in Sydney, Australia.
According to him, the amount of airline funds blocked from repatriation totalled $4.9bn globally at the end of 2017, which was seven per cent lower than the 2016 figure.

https://stocksng.com/nigeria-clears-foreign-airlines-600m-trapped-funds/

In summary, Nigeria is always clearing FX backlogs and will continue doing so if the naira/inflation problem is not arrested.
Business / Re: Interest Rate At 30% Will Stifle Growth, Hinder Job Creation - Dangote Warns CBN by 4Play(m): 7:47am On Jul 03
Realtruth2023:


Dude you're being ignorant. Inflation in the Nigerian scenario is not caused by Money supply but by other factors like insecurity, corruption and fall in crude oil earnings. The corruption part ensures that CBN doesn't have control over money supply making so much money to he outside the financial system like in politicians septic tanks and hidden in their houses. According to what you said in theory inflation can be curbed by increasing exchange rates only if your economy is driven by credit. Because once rates are increased, credit reduces and it impacts on demand which leads to a fall in price.

FG budgeted spending was N5 trillion in 2015, N21 trillion in Buhari's last budget and N28 trillion in Tinubu's first budget. Absolutely, the growth in naira spending is a major fuel of inflation. This is why CBN money printing ("ways and means"wink took off under Emefiele to enable FG to continue spending.

When you combine an injection of naira supply into an economy already witnessing a reduction in dollar inflow from oil exports, you have a recipe for naira collapse and further inflation.

Stabilising inflation requires monetary tightening through raising rates otherwise it becomes lucrative to borrow in naira to buy dollars.

Of course, all this would be futile if government spending isn't reined in. But a combined fiscal and monetary tightening is needed in Nigeria.

https://www.dataphyte.com/latest-reports/economy/chartoftheday-proposed-vs-approved-budgets-of-nigeria/
Politics / Re: 60 Minimum Wage Is Too Too Much. Strike to reduce senators salary instead by 4Play(m): 7:29am On Jul 03
grandstar:


I'll be honest with you, I have nothing against the wage increase. My angst is that Tinubu did not go further with his reforms

There should have been a total deregulation of both the price of petrol and electricity.

Any increment in the minimum wage can now be based on that. Any wage increase will further increase the huge burden of a fiscally ruinous fuel subsidy.

Total deregulation of petrol is fine in the long run but doing that now will fuel inflation in the short run and can introduce an unstable inflation dynamic that will negate any positives. If you combine that with increasing minimum wage - which is a direct transmission of cash to people's pockets - you have all the ingredients to further fuel inflation.

They need to focus on stabilising government spending (outside of fuel subsidy). I think Tinubu's first budget called for N28 trn, a rise of N7 trn from Buhari's last budget. This budget, if I understand it, doesn't include the fuel subsidy budget. Any major increase in naira spending is likely to add to inflation.

With fuel subsidy, one way of smoothing the transition to zero subsidy and offseting the inflationary effects could be to introduce a cap on spending which can be lowered each subsequent year. Say N2 trillion in year 1, N1 trillion in year 2, and zero in year 3. The main shortfall I see in this, though, is the possibility of fuel scarcity at the end of each year if people know they can sell at higher prices the next year. But the aggregate effect is likely to make the transition to total deregulation less inflationary.

They need, and this is unavoidable, to get a large forex loan. Best source would be the IMF. This will alleviate the CBN's forex scarcity problem. $10bn will be the minimum needed, possibly more. This should have been one of the first things to do, if not the first.

On inflation, I think they have done well with increasing CBN's interest rates. It's difficult to guage what the inflation rate actually is as the official estimates might be underestimating it but you should not have interest rates below the rate of inflation. That is just a recipe for more inflation.

If they could also sell all those government assets as a recent Punch editorial called for, that will be a good debt-free source of forex. These would include sea and air ports, their NNPC assets (including refineries), TCN and PHCN etc. Whether they can pull these off without selling them at firesale prices to cronies/themselves is a major question though.

Ultimately, I don't think this government has the integrity and nous to address the key economic challenges facing the country unless they are forced to. With subsidy and naira exchange rate partial deregulation, I think they had no choice so had to do something. Where they don't feel compelled, they will carry on business as usual, concentrating on acquiring resources to stay in power.
Politics / Re: Economy: Time For Talking Over For Tinubu - Punch Editorial by 4Play(m): 6:54am On Jul 03
They need to sell those government owned assets through a fair and transparent process. Whether Tinubu and the thieves he sorrounds himself with are capable of doing this is a major question.

By selling the assets, the government will signal to international investors that it is committed to reforms. It will also enable Nigeria obtain an injection of forex which will further assist in stabilising naira.

Additionally, I don't see how they can get away without getting a large forex loan to stabilise the naira.

2 Likes

Crime / Re: Man Jailed For Taking Off Condom During Sex by 4Play(m): 3:52am On Jun 14
This convicted man was able to claim asylum in the UK in 2002 by claiming he was a child, being under 18, at the time.

2. The appellant was born on 29 November 1984 or so he asserts. The Secretary of State did not believe that this was the appellant's true date of birth. He treated the appellant as an adult and he was interviewed about his claim on 21 March 2002. The respondent did not believe the account given by the appellant and for the reasons set out fully in the decision letter dated 27 March 2002 he refused his claim on both asylum and human rights grounds.

https://tribunalsdecisions.service.gov.uk/utiac/38776

1 Like

Crime / Man Jailed For Taking Off Condom During Sex by 4Play(m): 4:01pm On Jun 13
A man has been jailed for four years and three months in a rare conviction for “stealthing” – taking a condom off during sex without consent.

Guy Mukendi, 39, from Brixton, was sentenced on Thursday at inner London crown court for the rape of a woman last year. The woman had consented to sex with Mukendi on the condition a condom was used, but he removed it without her consent.

Nonconsensual condom removal is classified as rape under English and Welsh law.

Metropolitan police officers worked with the victim in a “milestone case” to obtain screenshots of messages from Mukendi in which he apologised for taking the condom off, explaining it was because he had not had sex in a long time. He then deleted the messages.

Officers also gathered forensic evidence with the help of the victim. The evidence helped to secure the conviction of Mukendi, who was found guilty by a jury on 2 April.

DC Jack Earl, who led the investigation, said: “Throughout this investigation Mukendi denied any wrongdoing, but our officers built a compelling case against him to leave no doubt in the jury’s mind.

“We were dedicated to securing justice for the victim and will continue to raise awareness that this crime is a form of rape.

“The victim did the right thing to call the police straight away and her bravery should not be overshadowed. If you have been a victim of sexual violence and not yet reported it, please contact your local police service and we will do all that we can to help and bring you justice.”

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/jun/13/london-man-jailed-stealthing-removing-condom-without-consent

4 Likes 1 Share

Celebrities / Re: Burna Boy Shares 10m To University Of Port Harcourt Students by 4Play(m): 1:05pm On Jun 12
VeeVeeMyLuv:
Bros that's not how to give your support, you will just end up causing inflation

Give it in kind through scholarship, tuition fee payment, purchase of equipment, facilities, social amenities

This is an uninformed take. To cause inflation, you need to inject trillions of naira.

So something like a new much higher minimum wage can add to inflation but not giving out N10 million.

2 Likes

Politics / Re: IMF: Nigeria Account Balance Surplus Hits ₦‎1.432 Billion by 4Play(m): 6:22pm On Jun 05
With Nigerian news,you always need to put it in context. $1.4bn does not give you a proper perspective without considering surpluses and deficits run recently.

Nigeria’s current account balance rose to a 9-year high of $7.7 billion in the first half of 2022, five times higher than the $1.13 billion recorded in the second half of last year.

https://nairametrics.com/2022/10/05/nigerias-current-account-balance-rises-to-9-year-high-of-7-7-billion-in-h1-2022/

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Politics / Re: 60 Minimum Wage Is Too Too Much. Strike to reduce senators salary instead by 4Play(m): 6:18pm On Jun 03
People don't understand that part of why Nigeria is in this mess are the relentless rises in minimum wages which government can't sustain.

To pay for them, they rely on CBN printing money to lend to the government which results in further naira depreciation and an increase in inflation.

Over the long run, Nigerians end up worse off.
Education / Re: Nigerian Students In UK Seek Help From Food Charity by 4Play(m): 5:30am On Jun 01
FreeStuffsNG:
As a result, students at UK universities have seen their savings wiped out and budgets suddenly and significantly reduced, leaving them struggling to afford the cost of living.

He said students who hoped to find jobs to help plug funding gaps were limited by the amount of hours they were legally allowed to work.
"When I was applying, the exchange rate was around 600 naira per pound, but by the time I arrived, it was 1,400," he added.


It is unfortunate but the reality is that Nigeria can't keep using our hard earned forex to defend the naira against the USD to please the few among us while over a hundred million of other Nigerians suffer.

I knew that the chaotic and reckless manner people were leaving their jobs here and selling their properties in the name of japa will put them in a serious problem.

Some of these Nigerians trapped overseas willfully made a wrong bet that the foreign exchange will continue to be subsidized against the naira to keep dollars cheap with our hard earned forex, held in trust by the CBN for all Nigerians, to defend the naira for the few among us while those charged to do so steal us blind.
For Pete's sake, it was obvious that it's not sustainable to keep buying forex at subsidized rates. We didn't even have enough forex!

The good thing is that all hope is not lost yet, the current administration is committed to floating the naira, taking away the huge subsidies which depletes our earnings. In the meantime, they can take a break to work overseas or Japa-da to continue with the better life some had in Nigeria but never appreciated perhaps till now.
May God bless Nigeria for ever! Check my signature for free stuffs!

You just wanted to mock Nigerians abroad because you are stuck with the hellhole government you have been supporting.

Are millions of Nigerians not suffering from the rapid currency depreciation your government has overseen? Depreciation has helped fuel inflation as the country is import-dependent.

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Politics / Nigerian Students Thrown Out Of UK University by 4Play(m): 1:15pm On May 22
Nigerian students at a UK university say they are devastated after some were thrown off their course and ordered to leave the UK when they got behind on their fees because of a currency crash.

Teesside University withdrew students who were struggling with their fees and informed the Home Office, after some students’ savings were wiped out when the value of Nigeria’s naira crashed.
The students, some who say they have been contacted by debt collection agencies, protested outside the campus on Tuesday, accusing the university of being “heartless”.

The university said it had “no choice” as failure to pay was a breach of visa sponsorship rules. It said it had made every effort to help the affected students, including with bespoke payment plans.

The BBC said a group of 60 students asked the university for help after they defaulted on their fees when their savings were wiped out.

Adenike Ibrahim told the BBC she was close to handing in her dissertation when she was kicked off her course because she was unable to make a payment.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/article/2024/may/22/nigerian-students-teesside-university-ordered-to-leave-uk-naira-currency-crash
Crime / Abusive Husband Killed Wife With Skateboard by 4Play(m): 2:02pm On Apr 25
An abusive husband beat his wife to death with their son's skateboard while police outside waited for permission to enter from superiors.

Officers heard 'a number of bangs' inside the house which Olubunmi Abodunde had gone into, despite bail conditions imposed the day before that banned him from the property following another violent episode.

When they finally entered 25 minutes later, they found Taiwo Abodunde, 41, with her 'skull smashed in'.

Abodunde, 48, who had been repeatedly investigated by Suffolk Police about domestic violence, was due to go on trial for murder but changed his plea to guilty yesterday after a jury had been sworn in.

Judge Martyn Levett, sitting at Ipswich Crown Court, warned him the only possible sentence was life imprisonment.

Officers heard 'a number of bangs' inside the house which Olubunmi Abodunde had gone into, despite bail conditions imposed the day before that banned him from the property following another violent episode.

Abodunde had a history of jealousy and suspicion and accused his wife of having affairs. He had been investigated by police a number of times over alleged domestic violence incidents before his wife death.

He was arrested on April 27 last year when police arrived at the couple's home in Newmarket, Suffolk, and found Mrs Abodunde with a split lip.

Later that day he was freed on police bail with a condition that he stayed away from the marital home and didn't approach his wife.

But after working a night shift at Tesco, he went home just after 9am to allegedly pick up his mobile phone.

Two officers arrived at 9.20am to take a statement from Mrs Abodunde about the previous night's incident and heard repeated banging noises inside.

But it wasn't until 9.55am that they forced their way in after getting approval from senior officers and found Mrs Abodunde 'obviously dead' near the front door.

A post-mortem examination later showed she had been throttled until she fell unconscious, then stamped on until her ribs were broken, before her husband used the skateboard to finish her off. The blows were so violent that the skateboard was damaged.

Prosecutor Simon Spence KC told the court the banging officers heard was likely to have been Abodunde continuing to attack his wife after she was unconscious or dead.

During the hearing, the court heard the couple, who had three children, arrived in the UK from Nigeria in 2022.

As well as clashes over the alleged affairs, there were also arguments about bills.

Mrs Abodunde had a job as a care home assistant in Cambridge but her husband, who had trained as a civil engineer, was unable to find work in his profession and took shifts at Tesco and Wickes.

After his arrest for the murder, Abodunde was taken to hospital 'because he appeared to have some sort of mental episode'.

He later claimed in a statement to police he had acted in self-defence, saying: 'My wife has subjected me to physical abuse for a number of years.

'On November 28, we got into an argument. She ran at me with a knife, I grabbed the knife and cut my hand. I was defending myself.'

But the court heard while he did have an injury to his hand, there wasn't a knife near his wife's body.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13349449/Abusive-husband-beat-wife-death-skateboard.html

2 Likes 1 Share

Politics / Re: Filling Stations Are Selling Petrol At N110: Why? by 4Play(m): 1:57pm On Mar 10
There were at least 2 comments on that first page speaking highly of Venezuela. This was in 2012.

Look what happened to Venezuela shortly after and what is happening to Nigeria now:

Venezuela is introducing economic reforms including new banknotes that lop five zeros off its fast-depreciating currency as the country battles hyperinflation.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/20/venezuela-bolivars-hyperinflation-banknotes
Business / Re: Countries Where Binance Is Banned, Restricted (Full List) by 4Play(m): 2:08pm On Mar 02
Binance is banned in those countries to protect customers from excessive losses due to crypto volatility and scams. Nigeria is taking action against Binance to use it as excuse in a blame game regarding naira's collapse.

1 Like

Politics / Re: The Irrationality Of The CBN Interest Rate Hike by 4Play(m): 9:22am On Mar 01
DevilsEqual:



Do u guys ven follow the updates and Stats from MBS??
We've had less import in the last 9months and even gained more from Exports toward the last quater of 2023 yet u think this sudden 100000% increase in importation is the only way out

U talk as if Nigeria hasnt been import-dependent since ages yet $ never rose to this level


I think most of u who think "Textbook Jargon" wouldnt work here in Nigeria actually think theories are being passed with no proper tests, arguement, reality checks and counter arguments

U prolly failed Economics in your waec and Neco...Thank Goodness, U didnt need it to advance your University education

This argument, that Nigeria is exceptional and so standard or "textbook" economic theories don't work in Nigeria is an often trotted out claim that has only served to justify some of the most bone-headed policies you will ever see.

Nigeria is not exceptional when it comes to the understanding that if central bank interest rates are way below the rate of inflation, the rate of inflation cannot be curtailed. If these people disagree, please give us examples of where significant and protracted high inflation was resolved without raising rates.

Of course, businesses need low interest rates. But if consumers are suffering from inflation and the currency is losing value, businesses are not going to invest. Where were the business investments when rates were lower?

In this environment, if I run a business and you lend me money at low interest rates, the best returns I can make would be gained by finding a way to convert my money into dollars and waiting a few years for naira to lose value to the dollar and I can pay back the naira denominated loan.

The reality is that low interest rates makes it very profitable to swap naira for dollars. If you are a saver in naira, your savings lose value and is not offset by the interest rates you get on your savings. You cannot stimulate your economy out of an inflation crisis.

I also agree that increasing rates is not enough as you need to curtail government spending growth which I think is a key driver of inflation in Nigeria. The thinking, as with low interest rates, that you can stimulate growth through government spending which we have seen implemented since 2015 has always been flawed. The late economist, Rudi Dornbusch, touched on this in relation to Latin America:

Again and again, Latin America has seen the populist scenario played to an unfortunate end. Upon gaining power, populist governments attempt to revive the economy through massive spending. After an initial recovery, inflation reemerges and the government responds with wage an price controls. Shortages, overvaluation, burgeoning deficits, and capital flight soon precipitate economic crisis, with a subsequent collapse of the populist regime.

https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/macroeconomics-populism-latin-america

Don't claim that Nigeria is exceptional.

3 Likes 2 Shares

Politics / Re: CBN’s 22.5% Interest Rate Will Worsen Economic Situation – Peter Obi by 4Play(m): 2:25pm On Feb 29
Very disappointingly ignorant comments from Peter Obi. Maybe he wants to oppose everything the government does for the sake of it.

Expansionary monetary policy including rapid increases in the money supply and negative real rates (the difference between inflation rate and MPR) is one of the main drivers of inflation and currency depreciation in Nigeria.

2 Likes 1 Share

Politics / Re: Wale Edun's Plans To Improve The Nigerian Economy by 4Play(m): 10:40am On Feb 24
Collaborating with CBN by increasing interest rates to attract FPI. I find this to be short-sighted if attracting hot money is the perceived benefit of raising interest rates and not the reduction of inflation, & FDI. Also, our real interest rates are still negative, so how will this work? ❌

Increasing interest rates is vital as a way to cool inflation as you can't fight inflation with interest rates which are below the rate of inflation. Attracting portfolio inflows would be an added bonus.


In addition, they need to curb government spending and money supply growth as this is fueling inflation and Naira depreciation. Increasing the supply of naira leads to increased demand for dollars.

So it's not so much about directing spending to the poor (if they can do that, great) but curbing the growth in government spending.

PS: Ultimately, they need a quick and sizeable injection of forex which they can source from the IMF.

10 Likes

Politics / Re: Nigeria’s Money Supply Hits New All-Time High Of ₦93.72 Trillion In January 2024 by 4Play(m): 8:58am On Feb 24
IamAtikulate:

This one don go copy Economics text book.

increasing Ms stimulates spending which exerts inflationary pressure on the economy, consequently leading to demand-pulled inflation. It's a pity that Economics textbook you copied didn't tell you that.

If they wanted to know what are the key drivers of inflation and Naira depreciation, this money supply growth is one of the major causes.

Here is what an article on hyperinflation has to say about a characteristic of this phenomenon:

By and large, these episodes all occurred because of a rapid (or accelerating) increase in the supply of money that wasn't matched by a corresponding increase in goods and services.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2012/08/21/great-hyperinflation-episodes-in-history-and-what-they-tell-us-about-the-fed/

Production of goods and services, nor the availability of the dollar, hasn't suddenly increased in Nigeria so this money supply growth has to be "accommodated" through higher prices for the same goods and services and for the dollar (lower naira value).
Politics / Re: Please What's Causing The Rise In Cement Price? by 4Play(m): 10:58am On Feb 17
Who remembers this thread? https://www.nairaland.com/7842393/bua-moves-crash-cement-price

Apparently, the cement price rise problem was resolved in September 2023:

Those Igbos brains is fvcked up.
They hate tinubu
They hate dangote


Innoson is an "angel" 😂
Perhaps they would say tinubu should had visited innoson instead😂

Imagine people continually wailing because of the high price of cement and now that something had been done about it are still unhappy because tinubu was the man to get it right and not their failure Obi the Pandora thief 😂🏃
Politics / Re: Group Of Primary School Students Came Out Asking Thunder To Strike On Tinubu by 4Play(m): 10:54am On Feb 17
AntiZikist:


You have 7 plus years to go.


After which you will begin drag Aboki again.


Nothing for you sore losers

So in your mind you are a winner? This sort of imbecility should be studied by PhD students in the future.

You are bragging online when many of your relatives are struggling to make ends meet.

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Health / Nigerian Nurses In The UK Embroiled In Qualification Scandal by 4Play(m): 10:07am On Feb 14
NHS nurses being investigated for ‘industrial-scale’ qualifications fraud

Scam involves more than 700 healthcare workers who used proxies to pass test in Nigeria enabling them to work in the UK

Hundreds of frontline NHS staff are treating patients despite being under investigation for their part in an alleged “industrial-scale” qualifications fraud.

More than 700 nurses are caught up in a potential scandal, which a former head of the Royal College of Nursing said could put NHS patients at risk.

The scam allegedly involves proxies impersonating nurses and taking a key test in Nigeria, which must be passed for them to become registered and allowed to work in the UK.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/feb/14/nhs-nurses-being-investigated-for-industrial-scale-qualifications

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Politics / Re: How Nigeria’s Economy Nosedived In 10 Years by 4Play(m): 5:33pm On Feb 11
The average figure for 2014 was 8.1 percent. The inflation figure was 8 percent in January and ended with 8 percent. While in 2015, the average inflation rate was 9.01 percent with 8.2 percent recorded in January and ended in December with 9.55 percent.

In 2016, the country could no longer maintain the single digit inflation rate with the figure jumping to 15.6 percent on average. It entered the year with 9.62 percent and ended it with 18.55 percent.

I remember posting multiple times in 2015 and 2016 about this. The crazy expansion in government spending from 2015 onwards in the mistaken belief that it will stimulate the economy was very wrong-headed. You can't stimulate your way out of a forex scarcity which Nigeria began to experience from the 2nd half of 2014. To make matters worse, they put in place a fixed exchange rate system which deterred forex inflows and distorted the market even more.

36 Likes 3 Shares

Health / Re: Nigerians Turn To Traditional Healers As Prices Of Drugs Go Out Of Reach by 4Play(m): 2:22pm On Feb 11
christejames:
APC will add this as an achievement!

Growth of herbal medicine practitioners shocked

See below:

Catapault:
FANTASTIC NEWS.

This is why they say “In every cloud there is a silver lining”.

If it takes poverty and inflation to force us to look inwards as a people instead of depending on foreigners for everything including medicine, like some lost people with no heritage, then more grease to their elbows.

What they MUST do now is standardise, brand, and package the medicine in the right way and market them effectively.

Great university courses in Traditional African Medicine should be established up to doctorate level.

I want to see university-trained DOCTORS of Traditional Nigerian Medicine.

Excellent stuff.

6 Likes

Foreign Affairs / Re: African Countries Should Be Recolonised Because Their Leaders Are Corrupt – Erik by 4Play(m): 2:13pm On Feb 11
Our leaders are incompetent and corrupt and in large part are a reflection of the kind of people we are.

But what we are going through is part of the learning process. After many missteps, we learn the hard way what mistakes to avoid.
Politics / Re: Why Blame Tinubu For Inflation When Obi Vowed To End Subsidy “On Day One”? by 4Play(m): 10:52am On Feb 11
The OP's question only makes sense if you believe that all that is driving inflation is subsidy.

In reality, inflation is also driven by the scale of the increase in government spending (FG budget went from N21 trillion in 2023, from N4.5 trillion in 2015, to N28 trillion budgeted for 2024). The increase in naira supply drives demand for dollars.

Monetary policy is also too loose, CBN interest rates should not be below the rate of inflation. But when you have a CBN governor appointed partly because he was part of Tinubu's inner circle, it erodes the independence of the central bank which is necessary to restore central bank credibility. Loose monetary policy loosens the appeal of holding naira as inflation erodes the value and you can't get interest rates that offsets
inflation.

Psychology also drives forex markets and electing an APC stalwart who has been making noise in the past about spending to drive growth (including suggesting printing naira) and who has a chequered personal history (to put it mildly) does a lot to cement the perception that Nigeria is not turning a new leaf and will sustain with its reputation as a corruption-riddled kakistocracy.

All 3 candidates would have reduced subsidy as there was no choice given the fiscal hole the country has dug itself into. Even Buhari, if he was elected to a 3rd term, would have done same. But by failing to tackle all the other issues I have referred to as we are witnessing today, it's made the situation a lot worse.

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Politics / Re: Respite For Businesses As ‘sit-at-home’ In S/east Fades by 4Play(m): 9:59am On Feb 11
IPOB's appeal lay in the perception that they were a means of counteracting the perceived threat of Fulanis. With Buhari no longer in power, their appeal has diminished. The sort of people who filled the ranks of IPOB (poorly educated young men) were indoctrinated to resent the Muslim north.
Politics / Re: Citizens Groan As Rice Hits N77,000 Per Bag by 4Play(m): 9:30am On Feb 11
The official inflation figure from the National Bureau Statistics is a lie. My guess is that inflation has gone far higher than captured in the data as naira depreciation gathered pace amplified by the reduction of fuel subsidy.

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Politics / Re: Hunger Protests: Why Tinubu Can’t Govern Like Buhari By Farooq A. Kperogi by 4Play(m): 3:11pm On Feb 10
Everydaylove:
Both Buhari and Tinubu have wrecked this country. He had his personal ambition since but not for the betterment of the people. I only blamed the braindead mumu supporters Tinubu used to achieve his selfish goal.

This is one of the things that annoys me with the Tinubu fan club who place blame on Buhari for today's situation. Without Tinubu's staunch support for the 8 years of Buhari's regime and before, Buhari would not have wreaked the havoc he did. To now suggest that he should be given more time to clean up Buhari's mess beggars belief. He traded his countrymen's well being, literally their lives, for his own personal ambition to be president. One cannot separate today's circumstances from the people who facilitated it.

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Politics / Re: Hunger Protests: Why Tinubu Can’t Govern Like Buhari By Farooq A. Kperogi by 4Play(m): 3:04pm On Feb 10
ivolt:

You guys continuously underestimate the value of financial prudence in economic management.

If you are right, Lamido Sanusi should have been the best CBN governor since
oil price was highest during his tenure.
But in real fact, the best CBN governors were the one in charge during the
lowest average oil price of 1999 to 2007. That is Joseph Oladele and Charles Soludo.
Joseph even managed to hit a 10% growth rate which is unmatched since then.

Nigeria's FDI at 1999 was about $1 billion and it increased to $6 billion in 2007.
If a 600% rise is not significant enough, you should remember that somebody actually took it from
4 billion dollars in 2015 to negative value by the end of 2022. Now, that's a record.


Before you ask, my criteria for best is based on external reserve accumulation, exchange rate control and economic growth rate.


Being CBN governor at a time of rapidly increasing oil prices, which comes with increasing forex inflow, is different from being governor at a time of oil prices being stagnant or falling and your predecessor ran forex reserves low and printed naira to support government spending. It's an entirely different set of circumstances.

Oil prices were lower during OBJ's era than now but that is irrelevant. What matters is that they were much higher, and rapidly increasing, compared to the preceding 2 decades. That's part of why things felt better for Nigerians.

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