Buhari fever is everywhere both here on Nairaland, other sites on the internet and across the core North. The crowds are so inspiring and the passion from his supporters is almost electrifying. It appears like an evangelical crusade with hopes of a great revival! You see the crowds and you think Obama!!

And because of these, he will NEARLY become President. But I've been told from childhood that NEARLY [/b]can never kill a bird. Buhari's strategy would only [b]NEARLY [/b]make him President! [b]His failure would come from the strategic blunder that encourages his campaign to focus all its energies on his strong base which is the Core North and totally ignore the South where he is weak!

In designing strategy, whether its for business, politics or development, common sense demands that you focus your resources on either reducing your weaknesses or converting your threats to strengths and opportunities. While Its important to consolidate your strengths, you can never grow by focusing your resources on those already maximized strengths!

Since Buhari already has a stranglehold of the  Core North, if he were to improve his fortunes, he needed to focus his resources on gaining more votes from especially the South West and even if its just a little from the South East and South South!!
He should have applied what I term the "confrontational strategy" which is what Obama used in winning hitherto Republican states!!

But no. His campaign is restricted to the north. There are no radio jingles, no TV adverts, no posters, no party structures in the south! Nothing of that nature is seen anywhere in the south! By ignoring these meduims, he has missed out on rural voters which interestingly constitute about 70% of registered voters. These folks have no internet and have no exposure to newspapers and have probably never heard of CPC!!!

The table below reveals in numbers, the consequences of Buhari's faulty strategy. It unrealistically exaggerates Buhari's chances and Diminishes GEJ's chances. Yet Buhari falls short by over 4 million votes for failing to garner enough votes in the South!!


                Total(Millions)         BUHARI                       GEJ                         RIBADU                        SHEKARAU   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                                               
NW                 19.8                    65%= 12.9m               20%= 4.0m               5%=  1.0m                     10%= 2.0m

NE                  10.7                    60%=   6.4m               25%=  2.7m               5%=  0.5m                    10%= 1.1m

NC                  10.6                    30%=   3.2m               50%=  5.3m             15%=  1.6m                     5%= 0.5m

SW                 14.2                    20%=   2.8m                40%= 5.7m             40%=  5.7m                        xxxxxx

SE                    7.5                    10%=   0.7m                80%= 6.0m             10% = 0.7m                        xxxxxx

SS                    9.5                    10%=   0.9m                80%= 7.6m             10%=  0.9m                        xxxxxx

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                73.5                    26.9 Million                  31.3 Million              10.4 Million                         3.4 Million

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
These figures assume 100% turnout which in reality isn't a possibility!!


NB
Kano and Kaduna alone have 9 million votes which constitute over 45% of all North West votes. Sadly, these two states are Buhari's  weakest link in the zone. In Kano, both because of the Shekarau factor and the Igbo population in Sabon Gari. In Kaduna, the Southern Kaduna factor, the Large southern(Igbo and other tribes) population and the Sambo factor!! In the North East, Adamawa and Taraba would be Buhari's undoing. ANPP will steal votes in Yobe and Borno. The North Central Belongs to Jonathan.

If Buhari focused a little extra energy in the South West and improved his showing there , then maybe, just maybe, he would have been able to over come. I understand they are cash strapped, but there is a strategy they would have used to penetrate the South West with their limited resources which I wouldn't reveal here!! Its just amazing how Buhari has bungled this one again!! NEARLY can never kill a bird!!

I admire the emotions behind the BB ticket however, I have always drawn peolple's attention to the realities on ground. I have also looked at those figures and it is clear that BB cannot win even in a free and fair election. We have to remember that the election is not a Buhari vs Jonathan race. It is a PDP vs CPC vs ACN battle. PDP will still sweep a large portion votes in the North simply because of interests. Lots of things have happened in the background and it will take more than emotions to surmount them. That is the nature of politics.

Constrained by money and time, the best bet is to consolidate his base while he works behind the scenes to get independent votes in the South. Compared to 2003/2007, he has improved on his strategy and using his strenghts greatly. Even Barack did not win in all states based on the fact that you can't change perception and voters mind with all the money in the world. The best you can do is focus and not alienate your base. If we were talking about popular votes and numbers, he would be leading, it only gets tricky because of the 1/3rd constitutional requirement.

I don't think it is faulty, its a resource issue and based on what he has, he has done well

kcjazz:

Constrained by money and time, the best bet is to consolidate his base while he works behind the scenes to get independent votes in the South. Compared to 2003/2007, he has improved on his strategy and using his strenghts greatly. Even Barack did not win in all states based on the fact that you can't change perception and voters mind with all the money in the world. The best you can do is focus and not alienate your base. If we were talking about popular votes and numbers, he would be leading, it only gets tricky because of the 1/3rd constitutional requirement.

I don't think it is faulty, its a resource issue and based on what he has, he has done well

The figures everywhere do not suggest that he would lead the popular votes!! I used very unrealistic figures to prop up Buhari's potential and yet he falls short by over 4 million votes. In a more realistic scenario, the gap between himself and Jonathan is looking like 7-8 million votes.
I must say though, that the man has done great! With little or no resources, he started a brand new party that is shaking the fabrics of the 2011 elections!! I am proud of him!! Just that NEARLY has never killed a bird!!

PapaBrowne:

The figures everywhere do not suggest that he would lead the popular votes!! I used very unrealistic figures to prop up Buhari's potential and yet he falls short by over 4 million votes. In a more realistic scenario, the gap between himself and Jonathan is looking like 7-8 million votes.
I must say though, that the man has done great! With little or no resources, he started a brand new party that is shaking the fabrics of the 2011 elections!! I am proud of him!! Just that NEARLY has never killed a bird!!

Yeah, we will never know until April I guess. It is the cross of the opposition in Nigeria, you can't compete resource-wise with the incumbent but we will wait and see how things will turn out

Going from INEC's provisional figures released, the North-West leads the six geo- political zones with 18,900,543 eligible voters. And this is where Buhari has concentrated his campaigns. Now lets look at other figures coming from the north;
North-East, 10,038,119.
North-Central, 7,675,369.
In total, the north where Mr Buhari has a stranglehold and has almost entirely based his campaigns constitutes over 35million votes of the 67,764,327 Nigerians were registered at the end of the registration exercise. This therefore means that the North constitutes more than 50% of the total votes, enough to give Buhari a good lead and perhaps win the election if he can get at least 35% of these votes which is very possible.
However, there is something wrong with such projections as its principles are in parallel with one of the provisions of the the Nigerian Constitution Chapter VI, Section 134(2), for an aspirant to win an election:
1. He must have the highest number of votes cast at the election.
Lets assume Buhari fulfils this first provision, this then takes us to the 2nd provision:
2. He has not less than a quarter of the votes cast at the election in each of at least two-thirds of all states in the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) What this translates to, in a country with 36 states and over 70 Million registered voters, is that: 1.
This is exactly where Buhari's campaign logic becomes flawed because to obtain 2/3rd majority a presidential candidate has to win in at least four zones. This is healthy for the country so we do not have lopsided popularity or support for the president.
And this is where the PDP is getting it right with their all-round campaign, they are not leaving any stone unturned and have shown that the party is the most de-tribalized and all-inclusive party as they have clearly shown to every of the six geopolitical zones that they need their votes to win, hence, giving every one of them a sense of belonging, responsibility and entitlement to make efforts to cast and protect their votes unlike Buhari who has clearly shown with his lopsided campaigns that he does not care if a section of the country do not recognize him, with the large votes of the north he can at least get a re-run, and perhaps come to a compromise with Ribadu and Shekarau to win more votes from them to clinch victory. Alas with GEJ's very elaborate campaigns and even popularity, like Americans will say; "Buhari's chances are overrated" because besides GEJ (who has a fair popularity in the North esp in the NC and NE), there is still the Ribadu and Shekarau factor both of whom GEJ will beat hands down in the South and give them heartbreaks up north.

Buhari, as a serial loser, will lose again. As for Ribadu and his rascally motley ACN crowd, I dey laugh.

The advantage GEJ has over all the candidates is the bulk support and followership he commands in the whole of the eastern region especially the igbos. The eastern region has the highest number of population spread and that is what is going to give GEJ the widespread acceptance that the constitution demands. Take for instance the NW and the SW regions which have the higest numbers of registered voters have a good number of Igbo people in their mix; lagos Kano and Kaduna whose numbers are the highest can attest to my claim.

rhymz:

The advantage GEJ has over all the candidates is the bulk support and followership he commands in the whole of the eastern region especially the igbos. The eastern region has the highest number of population spread and that is what is going to give GEJ the widespread acceptance that the constitution demands. Take for instance the NW and the SW regions which have the higest numbers of registered voters have a good number of Igbo people in their mix; lagos Kano and Kaduna whose numbers are the highest can attest to my claim.

In essence, Igbo determine who wins.

Buhari will win on the internet, rule on the internet, be sworn in on the internet and he will wake up to the reality that - yeeeee, the internet is not Nigeria afterall, and Nairaland BB supporters will gnash their teeth while they shout rigging and begin to throw bomb and call BEAF all manner of names because they will find it difficult to beleive that BB can loose meanwhile they forgvot that NL is not Nigeria neither is song singing the only thing that wins election then they will call Jonathan and thank him for a free and fair election and say, bros, lets form a government of national unity and Buhari will be come Minister of Works while Bakare becomes Emir of Gwarzo, meanwhile Ribadu will become the Secretary to the Government while Adeola will be made the Oba of Akure in a bid to form a government of national unity, after all, Jonthan becomes president while NL BB supporters seek government contracts from the new minister of works.

Enugu_Ukwu:

Buhari will win on the internet, rule on the internet, be sworn in on the internet and he will wake up to the reality that - yeeeee, the internet is not Nigeria afterall, and Nairaland BB supporters will gnash their teeth while they shout rigging and begin to throw bomb and call BEAF all manner of names because they will find it difficult to beleive that BB can loose meanwhile they forgvot that NL is not Nigeria neither is song singing the only thing that wins election then they will call Jonathan and thank him for a free and fair election and say, bros, lets form a government of national unity and Buhari will be come Minister of Works while Bakare becomes Emir of Gwarzo, meanwhile Ribadu will become the Secretary to the Government while Adeola will be made the Oba of Akure in a bid to form a government of national unity, after all, Jonthan becomes president while NL BB supporters seek government contracts from the new minister of works.

LOL. What ever happened to Abacha? I know he's late, but why can't a party adopt him. Why can't we make him president today

Like Buhari, he staged a coup, (including joining Buhari to topple a democracy). He was adopted by all the parties when he was to contest (Buhari has constantly been adopted by parties), he's a military man like Buhari- infact a General for that matter, He's ruled Nigeria prior to the invention of the Black Berry, He's from the NW, he has the same name like my homeboy in Syria although they-Abacha/Buhari- are as black as my cat. He comes at a time when a southerner hasnt been in power for too long, a time when the oil revenue is at a peak, when there's less tribal and religious battles, when there are at least some good governors around as oppossed to illiterate wing commanders and jr officers parading as state administrators, .,.,.,.,

1) Gej will not win as many votes as you are predicting in the North following the loss of the NPLC. His support there is literally non existent. May I repeat again, the loss of NPLF was a HAMMER BLOW).

2) Buhari will do just fine in the South West. The region is made up of 60% muslims. These muslims go to mosques. These mosques act as the best form of political mobalisation. The Bakare factor shouldn't be underplayed as well.

BB is fine. Trust me.

appletango:

1) Gej will not win as many votes as you are predicting in the North following the loss of the NPLC. His support there is literally non existent. May I repeat again, the loss of NPLF was a HAMMER BLOW).

2) Buhari will do just fine in the South West. The region is made up of 60% muslims. These muslims go to mosques. These mosques act as the best form of political mobalisation. The Bakare factor shouldn't be underplayed as well.

BB is fine. Trust me.

Black Berry is fine, Trust me lol

@PapaBrowne

I honestly don't see how Buhari gets more than 5% in South East. He may get 10% in South south due to Edo state factor.
GEJ's support in SE is total and cuts across all spectrum of society. Same pattern will be repeated among Igbos throughout Nigeria.

Adelaide2:

In essence, Igbo determine who wins.

Adelaide2:

In essence, Igbo determine who wins.

. . . In the scenario painted yes. Dont mess with the sprawling population of the Igbo. The fact is this, an Igbo man will register and vote in his place of residence but an hausa or Fulani in say owerri, onitsha, Aba or even lagos would rather travel to the north and do his thing and then come back.

Jonathan will get 50% of NC votes? I they laugh oooo. Jonathan will get 20% NW? I they laugh oooo. Jonathan will get 25% of NE? I they laugh ooo. Jonathan will get 40% of SW? I they laugh oooo.

You guys have not been following the trend of of things - Jonathan will have to rig to get 10% of the total norther votes. If you are too far from the north, go to any "Sabo" around you, and you will have a feel of the North resolve to vote out PDP.

In South West, Lagos represents the bulk of the votes here. PDP will struggled to get 20% of the votes here and when you talk about Oyo, forget it - PDP is gone in that state - PDP can't even get 15% of votes in a free and fair contest.

Back to Ogun, PDP will lose at both state and presidential election. Presidential election will be 3 ways - ACN 40%, CPC 40% and DPD less than 20%.

Other states in SW are for ACN with CPC/Buhari showing strength in Ekiti.

Anybody who watched PDP ground finale campaign in Abuja yesterday will know that PDP is finished. The whole place was deserted - you will only see some paid agents from SE and SS.

Buhari will perform a lot better in the SW compared to what people think. Bakare has been in the SW for the last week fighing hard and working hard to garner support. That is why youhave not seen him in the Northern campaings last week.

However, the campaign in the SW could be better but money is an important factor in Nigerian politics. Buhari does not have it but had done tremendously well, Brand Buhari is a wonderful brand breaking barriers never seen before in Nigerian politics.

Jonathan cannot get 40% of SW votes and in fact PDP cannot get 20% of the votes. The SW votes will be split between Ribadu and Buhari.

Int he north East as well , especially in Adamawa Buhari will do better than people think and Buba Marwa is campaigning well for himself and for Buhari over there.

^^^

Nobody listens to Bakare.

The poster is %80 correct , But i am worried about this Igbo here Igbo everywhere , i dont want some stupid elements to get angry over this and start fighting the Igbos in their abode , please ndigbo refrain from this and allow God to enlarge and deliver the presidency to you guys one love.

Another thing is that Igbo man command follower-ship wherever they are situated.

Onlytruth:

@PapaBrowne

I honestly don't see how Buhari gets more than 5% in South East. He may get 10% in South south due to Edo state factor.
GEJ's support in SE is total and cuts across all spectrum of society. Same pattern will be repeated among Igbos throughout Nigeria.

I know. Buhari would not score up to 5% in the south south and south east. GEJ would probably score as high as 90%. As I stated, I upped Buhari's socres to show that even in the best case scenario, he would still fall short by over 4 million. In a more realistic scenario, based on the realities on ground, Jonathan would give Buhari an over 8 million wide margin!!

appletango:

1) Gej will not win as many votes as you are predicting in the North following the loss of the NPLC. His support there is literally non existent. May I repeat again, the loss of NPLF was a HAMMER BLOW).

2) Buhari will do just fine in the South West. The region is made up of 60% muslims. These muslims go to mosques. These mosques act as the best form of political mobalisation. The Bakare factor shouldn't be underplayed as well.

BB is fine. Trust me.

You mean the North West. But just a reminder, the North is large and has a very huge Christian population who because of the Jos crises have decided to put an end to the Hausa Fulani domination of the region. Plateau, Benue, Taraba are all full time Christian states. Adamawa, Kogi, Kwara, Nassarawa, Niger and Kaduna all have christains dominating at least half the population of the states and would be voting Jonathan!! The Jos crises is the game changer in this election and it favours Jonathan incredibly!!


The southwest is officially recorded as 25% muslim. I don't know where you got your dream of 60% from!!

Lagosboy:

Buhari will perform a lot better in the SW compared to what people think. Bakare has been in the SW for the last week fighing hard and working hard to garner support. That is why youhave not seen him in the Northern campaings last week.

However, the campaign in the SW could be better but money is an important factor in Nigerian politics. Buhari does not have it but had done tremendously well, Brand Buhari is a wonderful brand breaking barriers never seen before in Nigerian politics.

Jonathan cannot get 40% of SW votes and in fact PDP cannot get 20% of the votes. The SW votes will be split between Ribadu and Buhari.

Int he north East as well , especially in Adamawa Buhari will do better than people think and Buba Marwa is campaigning well for himself and for Buhari over there.

I want you to ask yourself this simple question: How will people in the rural areas of the south west who constitute over 60% of those registered, vote for Buhari when they haven't even heard that he is runningThey don't know his party name. They don't know anything about corruption. Neither do they read newspapers to hear all the looting that PDP engages in.
There is only one way to reach rural voters- It is through their community leaders. These community leaders get financial support from Local Government Chairmen. PDP has mastered the art of using Local Government Chairmen as party structures to garner rural votes. These are some of the places where Jonathan would score the highest votes that would give him a chunk of South West. The other factor is the evangelicals from redeemed, Winners, MFM and the like. They all support Jonathan.

why are you people making noise? you know all of the elections are rigged and no one's vote is getting counted anyway.

What sucks it at the local level (state elections/state gov elections) we have criminals that are again contesting. So even if GEJ or god forbid the man from our history book of coup plotters (BUHARI) win, they will be surrounded by a bunch of corrupt people, because we are distracting ourselves daily on irrelevant gist.

As long as the system remains the way it has been for the last 12 years, you cannot stop local criminals from contesting. If however, you get someone serious about fighting crime at the National level, then you hinder those local criminals from getting away with any of their planned mischief when, and if elected.

Kobojunkie:

As long as the system remains the way it has been for the last 12 years, you cannot stop local criminals from contesting. If however, you get someone serious about fighting crime at the National level, then you hinder those local criminals from getting away with any of their planned mischief when, and if elected.

What are you saying?

The system has been like that even in 1984 when Buhari was the dictator, and during Abacha's regime when he (Buhari) was a de-facto member. Anyway thats by the way.

Why can't you stop criminals from contesting? Was it not criminals that contested in the 3rd republic, and even 2nd republic? Its the same old same old unless we hold the governement accountable and entirely Egyptionize or French revolutionize our selves and mindset

PapaBrowne:

You mean the North West. But just a reminder, the North is large and has a very huge Christian population who because of the Jos crises have decided to put an end to the Hausa Fulani domination of the region. Plateau, Benue, Taraba are all full time Christian states. Adamawa, Kogi, Kwara, Nassarawa, Niger and Kaduna all have christains dominating at least half the population of the states and would be voting Jonathan!! The Jos crises is the game changer in this election and it favours Jonathan incredibly!!


The southwest is officially recorded as 25% muslim. I don't know where you got your dream of 60% from!!

Could i have a back up for the bolded please.

How will PDP influence this coumminity leaders in the SW when 3 out of the 6 states int SW are in the hands of the ACN. Oyo is only between GEJ and Buhari as acknowledged by Akala himself . It is only Ondo state that might go to GEJ and the voters pouplation is small.

The game changer is LAgos and Oyo state. Perhaps only 20% of Lagos population will you call rural and majority of Lagos residents are hearing about Buhari, most of them are enlightened and aware of what is happening. They will vote Fashola because they have seen good things, some will vote Ribadu and some will vote Buhari. PDP has no chance in LAgos, they have never and will never win even 15% of the votes.

Some people just like to exaggerate Buhari's potentials and downplay GEJ's. It is not about giving support to your favourites, the reality on ground is that to an average rural Nigerian in the south, Buhari is an unknown name to them. GEJ is more recognized plus PDP is the only party my grandmum and a lot of old folks in the rural areas can remember when it comes to parties. The other time there was some sort of mobilization of women by the PDP, they chanted party songs in igbo language and stuff, it shows you PDP is realy grass root and on ground everywhere. That is how elections are won, taking it down to the grass root and making urself an item

rhymz:

Some people just like to exaggerate Buhari's potentials and downplay GEJ's. It is not about giving support to your favourites, the reality on ground is that to an average rural Nigerian in the south, Buhari is an unknown name to them. GEJ is more recognized plus PDP is the only party my grandmum and a lot of old folks in the rural areas can remember when it comes to parties. The other time there was some sort of mobilization of women by the PDP, they chanted party songs in igbo language and stuff, it shows you PDP is realy grass root and on ground everywhere. That is how elections are won, taking it down to the grass root and making urself an item

Which south are you referring to SW SE or SS. it is better to be specific

I dey laugh at the ignorance of some paid PDP agents.I know for sure that if this election is rigged,the military will seize power again because the resultant crisis in the entire North and South-West will be unbearable for PDP.

I also foresee public mob execution of the corrupt elite in these zones.The poor are furious.Infact if I were of the political class I would not be around when any doctored results will be announced.

I wont be surprised if ACN performs better than CPC overall!

Lagosboy:

Which south are you referring to SW SE or SS. it is better to be specific

I was talking about The SE. .even in the SW where I grow up, we still ve cases like that. And dont even try to tell me GEJ wont do well in lag, that is a big lie. At state level PDP may not be doing too well but federal they still command a mammoth following, you cant possibly argue that Buhari or Ribadu is more popular than GEJ in a place like Lagos even if it is an ACN controlled state. It is not like Lagos is comprised of Yorubas alone(whom many amongst them will still vote for GEJ), there are igbos in large quantity, southsouthans in large quantity too plus we have midbelters too. Dont confuse the fact that many lagosians speak yoruba for them being yorubas, i too speak yoruba. Even in other SW states like Osun, Oyo (which by the way has a large number of registered voters) and the ACN controlled states PDP and GEJ still controls a better following than Buhari and Ribadu put together.