Hello Fellows, I need help from my fellow nairalanders on this topic. Who will win the Southwest in the Presidential election? The hope of the opposition is that Ribadu wins the SW because a vote for Ribadu is a vote that Jonathan did not get. Buhari supporters like me are also hoping that Buhari can have a decent showing (realistically 10% - 12%, optimistically 15% - 20%, hopefully 25%). Right now my instincts tells me that Jonathan is leading in the SW. The perception that I am getting from people I talk to is that folks are gonna vote ACN for gubernatorial and Jonathan President.

I am of the opinion that the SW will choose our next president. If Jonathan wins the SW commandingly he wins the whole things. If Ribadu can limit Jonathan to 35% - 40% and Buhari gets 11% - 15%, Buhari could win the popular vote and force a runoff depending on turnout distribution. Buhari needs to give Nigerians the biggest upset in Nigerian political history. Such an event will give him the momentum and the political comeback that he needs to cement his victory in a runoff.

Can you please give your objective projection of each state in the SW based on anecdotal evidence you have from people who live there. Please be objective.

Lagos
Ogun
Osun
Oyo
Ondo
Ekiti

For now here is my map of the election. Please let me know what you think.

The map is very deceiving. It seems based on assumptions, at least for some.

Southern Kaduna is composed of non-Hausa minorities, primarily Christian. Don't those groups outnumber the Hausa in Kaduna State?

Just trying to figure out why Kaduna is safely Buhari, in a free and fair election.

EDIT: Actually, feel free to ignore this question, since it isn't the topic of discussion.

Say Jonathan

In lagos, the population is diverse, the igbos constitute 43% of the voters alone, this will work in favour of GEJ who has always shown alignment 2 the igbos who are his in-laws as patience, his wife is an igbo, hence they have decided 2 give him the 'ndi-ogo'(our in-law) advantage, in terms of d general populace, the sentiments are humility & poor background, most believe he should be given a chance, as for ribadu, many believe that he can never make it 2 asorock, but the muscles of tinubu could do some magic 4 ribadu, also his running mate is 4rm the SW, so he'll definately pull something in, as for buhari, he'll get d votes of the few northerners in lagos, but i doubt that'll amount 2 anything tangible as many of them are beggers who are outside the electioneering system, as for lagos, i think GEJ wld win, closely followed by ribadu, buhari wld nt have a good outing in lagos.

ekt_bear:

Southern Kaduna is composed of non-Hausa minorities, primarily Christian. Don't those groups outnumber the Hausa in Kaduna State?

Just trying to figure out why Kaduna is safely Buhari, in a free and fair election.

EDIT: Actually, feel free to ignore this question, since it isn't the topic of discussion.

Eku bear I would say NO

I think the Moslems outnumber the xtians in Kaduna and have much political power.

In 2007 I thought Ishaya Balat would be made PDP candidate because Makarfi a Moslem had finished his 8yrs and Balat was a strong PDP member yet the PDP couldnt put Balat forward and had to go with Sambo.

Patrick Yakowa was only able to ascend because similar to GEJ, the senior guy went onto higher things. Left to them (GEJ and Yakowa) they wont have won an election

recoome:

In lagos, the population is diverse, the igbos constitute 43% of the voters alone, this will work in favour of GEJ who has always shown alignment 2 the igbos who are his in-laws as patience, his wife is an igbo, hence they have decided 2 give him the 'ndi-ogo'(our in-law) advantage, in terms of d general populace, the sentiments are humility & poor background, most believe he should be given a chance, as for ribadu, many believe that he can never make it 2 asorock, but the muscles of tinubu could do some magic 4 ribadu, also his running mate is 4rm the SW, so he'll definately pull something in, as for buhari, he'll get d votes of the few northerners in lagos, but i doubt that'll amount 2 anything tangible as many of them are beggers who are outside the electioneering system, as for lagos, i think GEJ wld win, closely followed by ribadu, buhari wld nt have a good outing in lagos.

Can you bet your money on that?

In ogun(1.9 mln voters),GEJ is the candidate 2 beat, the 2 major guber candidates(isiaka & olurin) are on his side, including titans like baba, OGD, jubril martins-kuye, joju fadairo amongst other notable politicians despite all these ribadu is also formidable due 2 the influence of osoba & the fact that adeola is 4rm ogun .buhari also stands a chance due 2 d fact bakare is 4rm ogun.GEJ's likely 2 win ogun, ribadu comes second, buhari third.

Giving Adamawa and Kaduna to Buhari doesn't tally with the facts on ground. Adamawa is a triple race btw PDP, ACN and CPC with PDP likely pull the largest showing because of the three way split. Kaduna has three factors- Large southern population, Sambo factor, Kaduna South factor. Buhari will score well in Kaduna but is not like to win.
It is important to note that of the 19.8 million votes in the north west, Kano and Kaduna, which happen to be Buhari's weakest links in the zone, constitute 45% of the total voters with almost 9 million. Shekarau consumes a large chunk of the votes in Kano.

In the south west, from feelers I'm getting, GEJ would carry the day, except maybe in Ekiti state. Ondo is safe for Jonathan! Buhari would get a good number in Oyo. Ogun, Jonathan. I don't know about Osun. Lagos is voting Jonathan, but Ribadu would do very well. Buhari would struggle in Lagos, but would get at least 10%

In ekiti(0.7 mln voters) Ribadu is likely 2 carry the day due 2 d ACN factor, but GEJ would also make a good showing there 2, following his establishment of a federal university there, also many major politicians such as segun oni, min. Of state for FCT-capt caleb olubolade, etc are in his team, moreso, the PDP is still strong in ekiti, any vote buhari garners in ekiti, would be negligible.BTW, ekiti has a meagre voting pop of slightly above 700,000, so ekiti winner will not really matter!

In ondo(1.6 mln votin pop), it's an open field 4 all candidates but is believed 2 be pro-GEJ, with titans like agagu, bode olajumoke, jimoh ibrahim, tokunbo kayode(min. Of defence) and a host of other, campaigning vigorously 4 GEJ, it'll be an easy win, also in ondo south, there is high ijaw presense and they are more likely 2 go for their son, the 'GOODLUCK' sentiments is doing some magic, ribadu will not have a good showing esp after the face-off btw LP & ACN in the state, and tinubu does nt have any ondo titan in his fold.BB will have a dismal & negligible outing in ondo, as he's nt popular and even those that know him, have nt forgotten what he did 2 adekunle ajasin!

Ekiti peeps. . . . .wow, tough choice there. But I def know they are cautious of the Fulanis. GEJ would prolly win, IMO

@ topic

well, we'll see.

recoome:

In lagos, the population is diverse, the igbos constitute 43% of the voters alone, this will work in favour of GEJ who has always shown alignment 2 the igbos who are his in-laws as patience, his wife is an igbo, hence they have decided 2 give him the 'ndi-ogo'(our in-law) advantage, in terms of d general populace, the sentiments are humility & poor background, most believe he should be given a chance, as for ribadu, many believe that he can never make it 2 asorock, but the muscles of tinubu could do some magic 4 ribadu, also his running mate is 4rm the SW, so he'll definately pull something in, as for buhari, he'll get d votes of the few northerners in lagos, but i doubt that'll amount 2 anything tangible as many of them are beggers who are outside the electioneering system, as for lagos, i think GEJ wld win, closely followed by ribadu, buhari wld nt have a good outing in lagos.

Really? How did you arrive at this number? You mean all the other ethnic groups in Nigeria constitute 57%?

Looks like we have three regional parties already.

"O le g'eshin n nu mi"

Quote from PapaBrowne

Giving Adamawa and Kaduna to Buhari doesn't tally with the  facts on ground. Adamawa is a triple race btw PDP, ACN and  CPC with PDP likely pull the largest showing because of the  three way split. Kaduna has three factors- Large southern  population, Sambo factor, Kaduna South factor. Buhari will  score well in Kaduna but is not like to win.  It is important to note that of the 19.8  million votes in the  north west, Kano and Kaduna, which happen to be Buhari's  weakest links in the zone, constitute 45 % of the total voters  with almost 9  million. Shekarau consumes a large chunk of the votes in Kano.

Guy, you know what's on ground! Just what I wanted to post once I saw the diagram.
Buhari will most likely not win in Kaduna, Adamawa in a free and fair election (which will go in favour of GEJ). I am tempted to add one more State, but I'll leave that till  when the results are announced.

Pukkah:

Really? How did you arrive at this number? You mean all the other ethnic groups in Nigeria constitute 57%?

Bro, we have had that argument countless times. If he thinks his number makes sense, then so be it. Do not give people an opportunity to derail the topic. LOL.

If tinubu thinks he can reign lord in the SW, he should think again, thank God more SW regional parties are being formed & making waves, such as LP,PPN,accord party and i heard AD is coming back, i think d PDP should just establish itself in one state and allow the titans can all kill each other.

recoome:

If tinubu thinks he can reign lord in the SW, he should think again, thank God more SW regional parties are being formed & making waves, such as LP,PPN,accord party and i heard AD is coming back, i think d PDP should just establish itself in one state and allow the titans can all kill each other.

Forget PPN. Accord is tied to Ladoja.

recoome:

If tinubu thinks he can reign lord in the SW, he should think again, thank God more SW regional parties are being formed & making waves, such as LP,PPN,accord party and i heard AD is coming back,[b] i think d PDP should just establish itself in one state [/b]and allow the titans can all kill each other.

PDP cannot win any state except from Ogun state and we all know why, don't we?? The SW vote enblock and they usually base their votes on the momentum from Lagos. Once you capture Lagos, 99% chance that you have captured the SW. But Lagos is already under lock with ACN. So may be Ogun will go for PDP because of the Ex-president's influence.

Pukkah:

Forget PPN. Accord is tied to Ladoja.

forget PPN? Why? I've been watching their rallies and they are pulling tumultous crowd. If u say AP is tied 2 ladoja, ACN is tied 2 tinubu, are they not on the same level? They are both former SW governors.

recoome:

forget PPN? Why? I've been watching their rallies and they are pulling tumultous crowd. If u say AP is tied 2 ladoja, ACN is tied 2 tinubu, are they not on the same level? They are both former SW governors.

Now, I know you are not serious. Read your highlighted statement above and rethink.

jason123:

PDP cannot win any state except from Ogun state and we all know why, don't we?? The SW vote enblock and they usually base their votes on the momentum from Lagos. Once you capture Lagos, 99% chance that you have captured the SW. But Lagos is already under lock with ACN. So may be Ogun will go for PDP because of the Ex-president's influence.

akala will win in oyo, ladoja & ajimobi have only succeeded in dividing the ibadanland votes,BTW, some may not like akala, but his achievements im oyo are unparalled, in comparison 2 previous administration, PDP can also win ondo through jimoh ibrahim, who is now a house-hold name in ondo.

jason123:

PDP cannot win any state except from Ogun state and we all know why, don't we?? The SW vote enblock and they usually base their votes on the momentum from Lagos. Once you capture Lagos, 99% chance that you have captured the SW. But Lagos is already under lock with ACN. So may be Ogun will go for PDP because of the Ex-president's influence.

akala will win in oyo, ladoja & ajimobi have only succeeded in dividing the ibadanland votes,BTW, some may not like akala, but his achievements im oyo are unparalled, in comparison 2 previous administration, PDP can also win ondo through jimoh ibrahim, who is now a house-hold name in ondo.

recoome:

akala will win in oyo, ladoja & ajimobi have only succeeded in dividing the ibadanland votes,BTW, some may not like akala, [s]but his achievements im oyo are unparalled, in comparison 2 previous administration,[/s] PDP can also win ondo through jimoh ibrahim, who is now a house-hold name in ondo.

Are you serious ? Can you please highlight what that imbecille has achieved all his time as governor of oyo state ?

recoome:

akala will win in oyo, ladoja & ajimobi have only succeeded in dividing the ibadanland votes,BTW, some may not like akala, but his achievements im oyo are unparalled, in comparison 2 previous administration, PDP can also win ondo through jimoh ibrahim, who is now a house-hold name in ondo.

It is sad how fast some Nigerians are getting used to mediocrity and non-performance. Akala!

GEJ will win at least 50% of lagos votes, and atleast 60% in all other SW states except ekiti which has very small voting population and will probably go to ribadu.

Pukkah:

It is sad how fast some Nigerians are getting used to mediocrity and non-performance. Akala!

Is that not one of the symptoms of GEJ fans? Imagine someone claiming Akala is the best Governor?

What else? Osama is Pope right?

Acn stands a good chance of winning the SW.Their candidates are more credible than the others.GEJ had better start packing his bags for he shall lose at the polls.

I know that unlike states like sSokoto and Kebbi which are solidly for Buhari, Kaduna, Adamawa, Nassarawa, and Niger are not. The reason why I put them in Buhari's corner is because of zoning and because Buhari seems to have momentum in the North among the Hausa/Fulani who are going to come out in record numbers. I am hoping that Ribadu wins SW and that Buhari can at least get 15%. I hope I am not engaging in wishful thinking.

The Acn will win the SW.

recoome:

akala will win in oyo, ladoja & ajimobi have only succeeded in dividing the ibadanland votes,BTW, some may not like akala, but his achievements im oyo are unparalled, in comparison 2 previous administration, PDP can also win ondo through jimoh ibrahim, who is now a house-hold name in ondo.

Wow! This is news to me. Akala a performer? Some Nigerians need serious help!